Dapper Dan Picks - NCAAF '17 Season.

Smutbucket · 09-30-17, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

Good job getting that good number with razorbacks, think I saw they closed at 18.5 which would have been a loss!!

Thanks, ya still getting fuked on a weekly basis with injuries and bad beats like Vandy today

Adding:
South Carolina ML (+245) Risking .5 units to win 1.23 units

Smutbucket · 09-30-17, 11:04 PM

Week 5:
Duke +7 (-130) L
BYU -1 (+102) L
USC -3.5 (-110) L
Vanderbilt +10 (-110) L
Vanderbilt ML (+295) .5x L
Arkansas -17 (-110) W
Tennessee Team Total Under 19.5 (-110) W
FSU -7 (-105) P
South Carolina +8 (-110) W
South Carolina/TexAM Over 49 (-107) L
AirForce/NM Under 50.5 (-110) L
Troy +21 (-110) W
South Carolina ML (+245) .5x L

Week 5 Results: 4-8
-3.77 units

Season Results: 24-26 -4.79 units

Ugh, really disappointed with myself. Hindsight is 20/20 but bookies have been leaving a ton of good opportunities out there with these lines and Ive been penetrating around with coin flips and have been getting burned by bad beats and injuries. Next week we put in some serious work to right this ship

shopbar picks · 10-01-17, 01:49 AM

I'm with you. I look at this forum for some confirmation. Have about 6 plays I like for 3u. But then just get unfocused. So many plays yesterday were tap ins. Posters on here try to be savants with the underdogs. And I have have no discipline. Bc I see there angle. And forget they are idiots. Bol next week

shopbar picks · 10-01-17, 01:53 AM

Your hindsight 20/20. You know the minute the game begins you made the wrong play. As a big 10 fan. Would have went 5 for 5 .But love your threads

Smutbucket · 10-06-17, 10:37 PM

Have some later games I am looking into and will post tomorrow.... These are all the early games

Penn State -13.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Probably my favorite team in the BIG10 (and the league since I think BIG10>All). Had not rode them yet as I had not seen much value but I think we have plenty this week. Northwestern was able to stay close to Wiscy last week due to some big mistakes (fumble opening play) and the lack of explosiveness for the Wisconsin offense, especially without Fumalgia. I already talked about the extent of the injuries in the Northwestern defensive backfield and the problems still persist. As most already know, Penn State is all about the big play and Saquan Barkley is ridiculously good. His strength and speed far outweigh almost any player I have ever seen. Now that hes returning kicks give a huge advantage to Penn State in this game as Northwestern ranks amongst the bottom 20% of teams in Field Position on offense and defense, while Penn State ranks 8th on offense in FP, and 3rd on defense. Their defense ranks amongst the top 15 in most advanced statistical categories. Their D-line is extremely distruptive, ranking 2nd in DL Havoc rate and they like to blitz their DBs too as they rank 11 in DB Havoc rate. Pressure is something Thorson struggles with and if Justin Jackson is out this should be a 30 point blowout.

Iowa State +30 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I like this Iowa State team under this new coaching staff in their second year. Last year, they struggled implementing their new systems but began to gain momentum towards the end of the season. Their defense has shown improvement, especially against the run, holding some strong opponents to 2.9 yards per rush (ranked 11th). Last year they held Oklahoma to only 3.5 yards per rush and kept it close throughout which ended as a 10 point win. Jacob Park has shown good growth and has potential with his big arm if he can just get it under control. He returns most of his receiving crew this year and I see no reason why they can’t keep this game within 30 points against an Oklahoma defense that is very banged up.

Pittsburgh +3.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Pittsburgh is 2-3 and 1-3-1 ATS but they have played the 3rd most difficult schedule according to the Sagarin SOS. (which I usually agree with more than TeamRankings). Pittsburgh biggest problem on offense is giving Max Browne enough time, who struggles with pressure, but that should not be an issue against Syracuse who have a 2.11% sack %, ranking 123rd in the nation. Also, I believe their FB, George Aston, should be back into action this week after dealing with some nagging injuries and he is a big factor in their run game (which has struggled without him) and pass protection. Pittsburgh’s biggest weakness on defense that’s been exploited is their susceptibly to the big passing plays but Narduzzi is a master defensive coordinator and should make some adjustments after being burnt badly early on the season. Syracuse hit a couple big play passes in their shootout last season with Pittsburgh but Amba Etta-Tawo is gone who racked up 1500 yards last season (178 against Pitt) and 5 TDs against Pitt. Syracuse has struggled this season in their passing game averaging only 6.3 yards per pass. Syracuse has put up these poor numbers against the 104th weakest SOS according to Sagarin.

LSU /Florida Under 45 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
No writeup

Miami -3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Miami ML (-152) Rsking 1.52 units to win 1 units
This will be an old fashioned curb-stomping. Miami despite losing the last 7 straight have had ample opportunity to win each of those games even when they had the inferior team. This year its clear Miami has the superior team and they will look to pile on the points against an FSU team who crept back into some wins the last few years and used some terrible zebra officiating to get back into games. Miami QB, Rosier, a junior, looks cool calm and collected in the pocket, even in the face of pressure against Duke he made some big time throws and put the ball in the air where his big play receiver could make some plays, something Kaaya could never do. On the FSU side, we have Blackman stepping in for the injured Francois, and he looks like a scared, erratic, freshman who is unfamiliar with the speeds or pressures of the defenses at the collegiate level and Miami will be bringing a ton of it and they are currently ranked 15th in sack % at 8.91 %. FSU has been taking sacks at an 11.43% this season, ranking 121st. In years’ past FSU solely relied on the athleticism of Dalvin Cook to bring them win after win but he is now gone and Jimbo will be forced to get creative. Miami has scored in every one of their Red zone scoring opportunities which should spell trouble for the FSU defense that is giving up scores on 92.3% of their opponents red zone opportunities, ranking 103rd. The only reason I am doing the ML and spread is this rivalry has led to some bad calls and crazy bounces over the last few years.

Smutbucket · 10-07-17, 12:56 PM

Appears I got a terrible line on the stanford game and little better number on arkansas....defintely lock in 3 with stanford if you can....I locked in earlier in week as I didnt think it would get better than 4 and could possibly go the other way, lol....

Week 6 Additions:
Arkansas ML (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 units
South Carolina had some glaring issues last week on their offensive line as they gave up 7 sacks to the Texas AM front. They are constantly shuffling this weak offensive line in attempt to compensate for two key injuries to starters who are again listed as questionable this week. Their defense is also not what it was at the beginning of the season due to a big injury 2 weeks ago to starting middle line backer and leader Bryson Allen Williams. Arkansas, like I talked about last week, looked strong on offense and should continue to roll this week. Their offense likes to control the clock, averaging 55% TOP, which has been a weakness of this South Carolina team who have only controlled the clock for 46% in games (ranked 102). Arkansas defense has been susceptible to the big play against explosive offenses like TCU and Texas AM, but this South Carolina offense lacks the explosiveness now that Deebo is out. Think we pull out the win in this game. Giving us additional value is the fact that Arkansas is 0-3-1 ATS (depending on spread you got as last week we got the ATS W with them)

Stanford -5.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Stanford’s offense really started to mesh last week under backup QB, Costello. He made some great throws and I think he may take over the starting role even if Chryst is healthy enough to play. For Utah, Huntley is doubtful and Troy Williams who performed decently in his step in role two weeks ago vs Arizona is a huge down grade from Huntley. He has nowhere near the speed to run the offense the way Huntley had and is not a threat on the ground like Huntley. According the SOS rating systems we have another glaring huge mismatch, as Stanford is ranked 13th in TR and 20th in Sagarin. While Utah, is coming off a bye, are ranked 80th in TR, and 117th in Sagarin. Utah is also racking up the penalties, giving almost 9 per game, ranking 117th. Giving us some additional value is Utah has covered the spread in their last 3 matchups, and is 4-0 ATS this season, while Stanford is only 2-3 ATS.

Wisconsin -11 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
No writeup

Smutbucket · 10-07-17, 02:12 PM

Week 6:
Penn State -13.5 (-102)
Iowa State +30 (-110)
Pittsburgh +3.5 (-115)
LSU /Florida Under 45 (-110)
Miami -3 (-110)
Miami ML (-152)
Wisconsin -11 (-107)
Arkansas ML (-135)
Stanford -5.5 (-110)

Smutbucket · 10-08-17, 10:04 AM

Week 6 Results: 7-2 . +4.55 units

Season Results: 31-28 -.24 units

Its great ....to be.....a Miami Hurricane............

Smutbucket · 10-14-17, 07:49 AM

Week 6 Results: 7-2 . +4.55 units
Season Results: 31-28 -.24 units

Week 7: (may have a night play added throughout the day)

Duke +7 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Already talked a lot about and have wagered on games with both these teams a lot. Not much to say here, it was the first pick I locked in when I saw the magic 7 number, not expecting it to get better but of course it has (in some books). FSU played UM tough, but they won’t be able to run on this Duke team like they did against Miami. It was a hard fought, emotional game for FSU and since the game they have added 14 players to their injury report. They have very little left to play for this season and this strong Duke defense should cause a lot of problems for this weak offensive line. I’m aware FSU has blown this team out over the last several years but that’s what’s giving us value in this game. No reason we don’t cover this spread and maybe do a ML bet as well.

Connecticut +10 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Connecticut is 0-5 ATS and continues it’s awful against the spread record over the last few years but I see value in this game and this trend should turnaround over the remainder of the season. I already talked about the atrociousness of this Temple team and what their defense is especially bad at is containing the big passing plays. Despite having a very weak SOS, they have allowed 18 passing plays of 25+ yards, and 41 that are 15+ yards. This so happens to be a strength of Connecticut (probably because their always down by a lot from their defense) but they average 10.6 yards per pass and have 17 passing plays of 25+ yards themselves. Neither team is capable of running the ball so let’s hope our superior passing game prevails. We also have a strong penalty advantage as UConn is one of the least penalized teams in the nation, while Temple is one of the highest; which affirms our strong coaching advantage. Worst case scenario, we catch a backdoor at this number but may even win outright.

Northwestern -3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Good spot to back Northwestern for various reasons. First off, we may see Maryland’s 4th string QB, as Bortenschlager is battling injury, but even if we don’t, I’ll take 3 points against the 3rd stringer. Northwestern’s secondary is finally returning and the backups have gained some much needed experience. They shouldn't challenged deep much against this team if it all. Northwesterns offense has struggled lately against some elite teams but that’s because these teams were very good at getting pressure to Thorson; something he struggles with. But that shouldn’t be an issue for them this week as Marylands sack % is ranked 115th.

Vanderbilt +3.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Auburn -7 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
This Auburn offense has been explosive since the loss at Clemson and has coincided with the return of Kerryon Johnson. In their last 3 games, they have averaged 48 points per game. They have averaged 7.7 yards per play, all be it against some poor defenses but none the less they were still SEC defenses. Even more impressive has been Auburns defense, holding these explosive offenses to season low points and yards per play. Their coaches are really learning to work with each other and implement their systems that best suit this team.

Miami(Ohio)/Kent State Under 41.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Both teams have been battling injuries and will most likely be using backup QB’s in this game. Both teams will be running the ball often and both run slow methodical offenses that enjoy eating up the clock and running very few plays. Kent State ranks 123rd in plays per game, yet ranks 30th in TOP. Miami Ohio ranks 42nd in plays per game and 19th in TOP. This will be Miami of Ohios first game with their backup QB Bill Bahl who has some awful career numbers and was 8 for 17 last week when he came in against Bowling Green. They will surely be trying to run the ball and Kent State already runs the ball 70% of the time. A very low number for a college game but fittingly so for these offenses.

May have some more added night games

Smutbucket · 10-14-17, 03:43 PM

Week 7 Late Adds:

Arizona State +17.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Nebraska +24 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units

Smutbucket · 10-14-17, 03:46 PM

Week 7:
Duke +7 (-115)
Connecticut +10 (-110)
Northwestern -3 (-115)
Vanderbilt +3.5 (-105)
Auburn -7 (-120)
Miami(Ohio)/Kent State Under 41.5 (-110)
Arizona State +17.5 (-105)
Nebraska +24.5 (-109)

Smutbucket · 10-17-17, 07:46 AM

Week 7 Results: 4-3 +.66 units
Season Results: 35-31 +.42 units

Were in the BLACK!!!

Smutbucket · 10-17-17, 10:33 PM

Locked in two already for the week as I loved the numbers and don’t think itll get much better…

Week 8 Writeups
Arizona -1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Khalil Tate is just what Rich Rodriguez needed to bring his offense up to speed to his caliber of what it was back in his Mountaineer days. He loves to run the ball, and this insanely fast and smart QB Khalil Tate opens up the running game like no other QB has for him. If you remember he was an extremely successful coach at West Virginia with Pat White, where he ran the ball 70% of the time but defenses still could not stop his spread rushing attack. California rush defense has notoriously struggled over the years, although this year they are ranked #41 only allowing 4.0 yards per carry. According to adjusted line yards, their defensive line is ranked in the bottom 20% of all teams. They have struggled against teams that can run the ball efficiently. We also have a strong advantage in our defensive line to their offensive line according to football outsiders. I locked this one in early at the good number and may even add another unit to the ML as the week goes along.

Arizona State +10.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I’ve already talked about how this Utah team is nowhere near what it is on offense without Huntley, but apparently he may be back this week which sucks as I excitedly locked in the number above 10 not thinking Huntley would be returning. Anyways let me talk a little about this Arizona State team Ive been backing. Their defense has shown significant improvement from last year under new Defensive Coordinator, Phil Bennett, who I have rated as a B+ and has coached all over many D1 schools for 40 years. They racked up 5 “coverage sacks” last week against Jake Browning and Washington and broke up 7 passes. They are ranked 38th in TFL, averaging almost 7 per game, surprisingly higher than Utahs. Although Utah has one big in the matchup lately I think we can easily cover if Troy Williams is QB and Huntley’s status is questionable.

Smutbucket · 10-21-17, 08:53 AM

Week 7 Results: 4-3 +.66 units
Season Results: 35-31 +.42 units

Week 8 Full Card Write-ups:
Note: I added a ½ unit more to Arizona on the ML, Totaling 2 unit bet to win 1.5 units. We got such a good number earlier in the week that I don’t mind paying the high ML now for a half unit as it evens out to like we paid (-130) range.

Arizona -1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Arizona ML (-178) Risking .89 units to win .5 units
Khalil Tate is just what Rich Rodriguez needed to bring his offense up to speed to his caliber of what it was back in his Mountaineer days. He loves to run the ball, and this insanely fast and smart QB Khalil Tate opens up the running game like no other QB has for him. If you remember he was an extremely successful coach at West Virginia with Pat White, where he ran the ball 70% of the time but defenses still could not stop his spread rushing attack. California rush defense has notoriously struggled over the years, although this year they are ranked #41 only allowing 4.0 yards per carry. According to adjusted line yards, their defensive line is ranked in the bottom 20% of all teams. They have struggled against teams that can run the ball efficiently. We also have a strong advantage in our defensive line to their offensive line according to football outsiders. We have added a ½ unit bet on the ML at the high price of (-178) which is now gameday, good thing we locked in -1 while we could.

Arizona State +10.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I’ve already talked about how this Utah team is nowhere near what it is on offense without Huntley, but apparently he may be back this week which sucks as I excitedly locked in the number above 10 not thinking Huntley would be returning. Anyways let me talk a little about this Arizona State team Ive been backing. Their defense has shown significant improvement from last year under new Defensive Coordinator, Phil Bennett, who I have rated as a B+ and has coached all over many D1 schools for 40 years. They racked up 5 “coverage sacks” last week against Jake Browning and Washington and broke up 7 passes. They are ranked 38th in TFL, averaging almost 7 per game, surprisingly higher than Utahs. Although Utah has one big in the matchup lately I think we can easily cover if Troy Williams is QB and Huntley’s status is questionable.

Northwestern -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Teams have been running all over this Iowa team, and that is Northwestern’s key to offensive success is getting their running game going. Iowa is giving up 4.51 yards per carry, including 6.67 two weeks ago to an Illinois who can’t run the ball for shit. The Northwestern defensive line also has a large differential mismatch against this Iowa offense who has struggled to run the ball this season. This Iowa offense is not a team to hit big passing plays which has been Northwestern’s weakness. This Iowa defense has not generated much of a pass rush either which has been the cause of Northwesterns offensive woes which I have talked about in past write-ups. This game should be a lot like last year’s matchup between these two teams where Northwestern dominated the line of scrimmage, running for almost 200 yards, and holding Iowa to under 80 yards.

Cincinnati +7.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Despite this SMU team leading and outweighing Cincinnati in most statistical categories, it’s been against a much weaker SOS. Their defense has had some troubling holes in its secondary, and Chad Morris will surely continue to make changes to it coming off its bye week. Hayden Moore has a big arm and plenty of experience and should be able to score at will against a much weaker secondary then they have played the following few weeks. I expect Luke Fickell’s defense to improve throughout the remainder of the season and hopefully cause a turnover or two in this game that will allow us to cover this spread easily. Their biggest weakness on defense has really been against the run, only allowing 13 plays over 25+ yards through the air. Look for this to be a back and forth, one possession type game where the team with the ball last, wins.

Mississippi State -11.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
At first glance, I was leaning Kentucky all the way. But upon further inspection of these teams I decided Mississippi State was the right side to play, despite the seemingly large line. On the line of scrimmage, Mississippi State dominates this team in adjusted line yards on defense, with a differential of 72 in rankings, on standard downs with a differential of 112 rankings, and 57 in power success rate. Their offensive line should also dominate this Kentucky defensive line, as they are ranked 13th in adjusted line yards, 6th in opportunity rate, and 4th in stuff rate. Meanwhile Kentucky’s defensive line ranks in the bottom 25% of most respective categories. Not to mention, Mississippi State has had a much more difficult SOS year to date, which leaves little excuse for Kentucky’s numbers to be so lopsided. In 2016’s matchup, Kentucky racked up 554 total yards against Mississippi State, but new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham has this defense much improved and they should look to seek revenge on their conference opponent.

Missouri -14 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I know, it pains me to write this teams name on a betting slip but were getting real value here. As awful as Missouri has been at the end of the day they’re still an SEC team, and their SOS strongly outranks that of Idaho’s, almost by 100 according to the Sagarin rankings. Even despite the large SOS mismatch, Missouri still dominates Idaho under most advanced statistical categories and should have strong edge on the offensive and defensive line. This Idaho defense will not be ready for a team that throws 55% of the time and tries to run 80 plays per game. Not much else to say about this one, I think Missouri wins this one easily.

Michigan/Penn State Under 43 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Both defensive lines are extremely well coached and the advanced numbers show it. Despite the explosiveness of this Penn State defense they will be going up against a Michigan defensive line that ranks 4th in Adjusted Line Yards, 1st in power success rate, and 9th in adjusted sack rate. This Penn State offensive line has struggled protecting McSorley and are ranked 112th in adjusted sack rate. Michigan’s passing defense is ranked #1 in the S&P ratings and #3 in overall havoc rate. This will be no easy task for this Penn State offense. I have talked many times about the struggles of this Michigan offense, although I would feel more comfortable if Speight was QB, I’ll take my chances with his backup against this Penn State defense. This Penn State defense is ranked 7th in efficiency, 3rd in finishing drives, and 1st in field position. Their overall Havoc rate is ranked #5, and their pass deflected to in-completion ratio is nearly 50%, ranking 2nd in the nation. Both teams are sure tacklers as solo tackles account for 80%+ of their tackles, ranking them both in the top 15 of all schools. No reason this game goes over unless we have a few defensive touchdowns.

may add a late game, we'll see.....

ZINISTER · 10-21-17, 09:59 AM

Love the logic on the Under in the Penn St./Mich. game. Mich. will be in full grind mode in this contest. Penn St. will play smash mouth right with them. It's a play for me. GL

ZINISTER · 10-21-17, 10:04 AM

Not sure about the Cincy game. Luke Fickel is a joke. Until he shows me he knows the game from a strategy stand point I have zero confidence in anything he is involved with. GL I'm not playing it.

Smutbucket · 10-21-17, 10:35 AM

Thanks Zinister, ya I was upset I didn't get Michigan/Penn State at 45 but the more I kept putting together the write-up the more things I noticed I liked....

Luke Fickell a joke?
Here's his defensive rankings in defensive yards per play allowed during his 11 year tenure as a co-DC at ohio state....from '05-'16
#5, #13, #1, #16, #4, #4, #31, #26, #46, #11, #6, #3

ZINISTER · 10-21-17, 09:39 PM

Time will tell. Just wasn't a fan when he was at OSU. Too Cheesy! He had help at OSU. We hired Ash and Schiano while he was still considered DC. He insist on sitting in a defense. Wasn't aggressive enough for my taste.

Smutbucket · 10-21-17, 11:38 PM

Week 8 Full Card:
Arizona -1 (-110) P
Arizona ML (-178) .5x W
Northwestern -2 (-110) W
Missouri -14 (-110) W
Arizona State +10.5 (-110) W
Cincinnati +7.5 (-115) W
Mississippi State -11.5 (-102) W
Michigan/Penn State Under 43 (-110) L

Week 8 : 6-1 +4.4 units
Season Results: 41-32 +4.82 units

shopbar picks · 10-22-17, 12:29 AM

Great day congrats

eastvan09 · 10-22-17, 12:52 AM

Nice day. I should have tailed some of your plays.

Smutbucket · 10-23-17, 08:57 PM

Locked a few in early:

Week 9 Write-ups:

Penn State +7 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Already talked a lot about how much I love this Penn State team, they proved worthy last week and I’m upset with myself I should have taken the Michigan TT under or just the points instead of the game under. Although this Ohio State team looked immaculate last game two weeks ago, it was against a pretty poor Nebraska team who was their 2nd most difficult game of the season. Ohio State typically has a soft SOS scheduled outside of their conference BIG 10 games. They are a bit skittish on offense proven in their game against Oklahoma; only putting up 16 points. Last year, which was arguably a better Ohio State team lost 5 players in the first 20 picks of the NFL draft, including Joey Bosa, Ezekiel Elliot, Darron Lee, Eli Apple, and Taylor Decker. That team lost to Penn State 21-24 but granted that was at Beaver Stadium. I just don’t see this not coming down to a one possession game, worst case scenario we get a back door as Penn State has proven an explosive offense and capable of scoring quickly when their backs are up against the wall.

Vanderbilt +7 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Ok, finally time to back Vanderbilt again. Despite losing 4 straight games (and ATS), it was against 2 of the best teams in the nation and against an explosive Ole Miss offense they couldn’t contain and the UF game was just a bad ATS beat. I still like this Vandy team although I am 1-2 ATS backing them, and think they can easily win this game. The numbers don’t show it because of the SOS disparity but this Vanderbilt defense is much better than South Carolina’s. Vanderbilt has played their most difficult games (and ranked 19th in SOS) and are coming off a much needed bye, before heading into a pretty easy remaining schedule. South Carolina has had very easy schedule thus far (ranked 48th SOS) and have Georgia, Florida, and Clemson remaining. They looked piss poor especially on the offensive line against Texas A&M and struggled with a very weak Tennessee team two weeks ago.

Mississippi State PK (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
A little shocked at this line and am hopping on it before it moves to 3 maybe even 4 (I think it should). We have a strong advantage again at the line of scrimmage as this Miss. State team offers one of the best lines in the nation on offense and defense. In last year’s match-up, Miss. State out-gained Texas AM by 200 yards, controlled the clock for 60% of the game, and dominated the line of scrimmage. This is a much improved Miss. State team like I mentioned last week because of their defensive coordinator. No reason to think they don’t win this game in what may be a shootout. Texas AM coming off a bye does not frighten me as Sumlin at Texas AM is 0-6 ATS after a bye week. Miss. State looked real solid last week dominating Kentucky in every facet of the game.

Duke +17.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I know, I know, were constantly banging the same old drums but I like to bet teams I watch frequently. This is a good opportunity to take this Duke team that is coming off 4 straight ATS losses as well (1 push). Although Virginia Tech is averaging 37 ppg, including 59 last week against UNC, it’s been against a very weak SOS, ranked 81st. They have yet to face a defensive line like Dukes and in fact sport some sub-par offensive line statistics, something this Duke defensive line should take advantage of. We also have an advantage on passing downs, as Virginia Tech struggles in these situations and this Duke defense excels in them. Despite this Virginia tech defense leading most normal statistics (against a weaker SOS), this Duke defense leads most advanced statistics, including havoc rate and passes deflected to incompletion rate where they are ranked #5 in the nation. I expect us to cover this and be a relatively close game 7-14 points.

Smutbucket · 10-28-17, 09:35 AM

Week 9 Writeup Additions:
Oklahoma State -7 (-118) Risking 1.18 units to win 1 units
These two teams are highly efficient passing teams ranking in the top 20 of passing efficiency and completion percentage. But where these two teams differentiate is their defenses, and I love backing the stronger defensive unit. Despite playing a much harder schedule than West Virgina, their defense ranks #21 in yards per rush allowed, #30 in yards per pass allowed and #19 in defensive passing efficiency. West Virgina under those same corresponding numbers, rank #108th in yards per rush allowed, #91 in yards per pass allowed, and #91 in defensive passing efficiency. I think this will be a bit of a wake-up call for this west virgina offense who has been coasting through a good season on a cupcake schedule (Ranked #83 in sagarin rankings) The two most difficult teams they played held them two 24 points, and that won’t be enough against Mason Rudolph and this explosive offense. Oklahoma State covered the spread in this matchup the last two seasons despite being underdogs. This should be a shootout but look for Oklahoma State to pull away in the 2nd half.

Boise State -9.5 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
Even though Utah state is playing at home and has covered the spread in this matchup the last two years, I still like Boise State to blow out Utah State this year. Even though Boise State’s offense has dropped a bit from last season, their defense has been stellar. They have had a much tougher schedule than Utah State and still dominate them in the numbers. The biggest mismatch will be on the offensive line for Utah state, where they will struggle to protect their QB (and they have been with an adjusted sack rate ranking of 112tH) against a Boise State defensive line that has been sacking QB’s at a very high rate (ranking 26th in the nation and 2nd on standard downs.) They should rack up the TFL’s, something they are averaging 6.6 TFLs per game, against Utah State who is ranked 119th in the nation, allowing 7.88 TFL’s per game and a majority of those being sacks. Boise State’s program discipline remains at a high quality since Chris Peterson’s departure being one of the least penalized teams, and taking care of the ball in the top 20% of takeaways per game and giveaways per game. This Utah State team averages some of the highest penalty yards per penalty, and has been giving away 2.3 turnovers per game. Their #5 ranking of takeaways per game at 2.6 is a bit of a farce as 12 of their takeaways occurred against BYU and San Jose State, two awful teams.

NC State +7.5 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
Notre Dame relies on its running game as like I have mentioned in past write-ups Winbush has accuracy issues throwing the ball. They are ranked #116th in yards per pass, #117th in completion percentage, 111th in passing efficiency. They are averaging 7.06 yards per carry, but that was solely from racking up over 9 yards per carry against some soft rushing defending opponents. They racked up 9.59 yards per carry against Temple who is ranked #105th in defensive yards per carry allowed. They racked up 10.1 yards per carry against BC, who is ranked #112th in defensive yards per carry allowed. They racked up 8.5 yards per carry against Miami(Ohio) who is ranked 80th in yards per carry allowed. They racked up 6 yards per carry against UNC who is ranked 89th in yards per carry allowed. They racked up 8 yards per carry last week against USC defense who is ranked 84th in defensive yards allowed per carry. Do you see the trend here? Against UGA they were held to 1.49 yards per carry and Michigan State to only 4.55 yards per carry, the only twp respectable rush defenses they played. NC State strength is their defensive line and their #14th ranked rushing defense in yards allowed. Last year they held Norte Dame to 59 rushing yards on 38 carries. I expect them to slow this rushing attack down and force this Winbush to beat them through the air who has proven inconsistent. This NC State offense is extremely reliable with the ball as they have not thrown an INT and have only had .5 giveaways per game, ranked #1. They like to control the clock which should also play to their advantage in this matchup. Doeren’s teams are ultra-prepared coming off BYE weeks as he is 8-1 ATS in the last 4 years coming off a BYE week with this NC State team.

Ark. State/N.M. State Over 70.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Despite the ridiculously high total number, I still think we surpass it with these two teams for many reasons. Both teams are top 10 teams in passing play% with New Mexico State ranking 2nd averaging 66% passing play %. Both teams will run hurry up offenses and do their best to run 80 plays per game and yet still are in the bottom 10% of total TOP per game. Both teams have a lot of giveaways which will hopefully work in our favor although sometimes they don’t for an over. Also both teams’ defenses are pretty awful especially in the red zone ranking #119th and 104th in scoring % allowed. Both teams are familiar with each other and should score at will. Last year was a “PUSH” on the total of 63 between the two teams despite both teams combining for a 6-27, 3rd down conversion percentage, a number that surely should no repeat this season. In their prior matchups the totals have soared over the set game lines including 65 and 71 in 2014 and 2015. Lets take it, not watch this shit show, but comfortably get the constant ESPN scoring notifications as it’s a safe bet that should hit 60+% of the time we bet it in this situation .

BYU -9.5 (-105) Risking .52 units to win .5 units
Just a ½ unit bet because BYU has been terrible (with injuries) but San Jose State is another level of awful.

Smutbucket · 10-28-17, 10:12 AM

⁣Week 8 : 6-1 +4.4 units
Season Results: 41-32 +4.82 units

Week 9 Full Card:
Penn State +7 (-120)
Vanderbilt +7 (-120)
Mississippi State PK (-110)
Duke +17.5 (-110)
Oklahoma State -7 (-118)
Boise State -9.5 (-104)
NC State +7.5 (-130)
Ark. State/N.M. State Over 70.5 (-106)
BYU -9.5 (-105) .5x

Smutbucket · 10-29-17, 11:25 AM

Week 9: 5-3 +1.04 units
Season Results: 46-35 (57%) +5.86 units

shopbar picks · 11-04-17, 02:55 AM

Didn't quit did you. No one likes a quitter

Smutbucket · 11-04-17, 08:23 AM

Lol. fook no. just a busy week and the card is kinda weak. finishing up and will post in the next hour but only seeing 5-6 plays tops.

Smutbucket · 11-04-17, 09:10 AM

Week 9: 5-3 +1.04 units
Season Results: 46-35 (57%) +5.86 units

Texas A&M +15 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
As much as I hate this Texas A&M defensive secondary, I think they can still keep this one close and hold Auburn within two touchdowns. Their defensive line is still elite and should cause issues for this Auburn offense that struggles with pressure, ranking 116th in adjusted sack %. Stidham is not a QB that can handle any type of pressure and without Pettway and with a few injuries along their offensive line, I don’t think they will be putting up a ton of points like they have been accustom to against soft competition. Despite Mond being an inconsistent rookie he has a bunch of playmakers around him that can make some big plays and score some points. In last years’ matchup, they contained this atypical offense well and outgained them by 80 yards. They were able to break off a couple huge plays including a 90 yard run late in the 3rd qtr to seal the victory. Think this is a close matchup between conference rivals.

Rice +10.5 ( -110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Although Rice has been horrible and has averaged 13 points per game, there is still reason to back them in this game. Their star freshman QB, Sam Glaesman, has missed 4 games this season which has contributed to their offensive struggles. He has been back the last two weeks (not the whole game 2 weeks ago) and the offense has shown some signs of life scoring 28 points last week and keeping the game close with Louisana Tech, before giving up 14 points in the last minute of the game. Rice also outgained and dominated that game but gave up 4 turnovers which contributed to their seemingly bad loss last week. Glaesman is a dual threat QB, who can do some damage on the ground and open up this offense. UAB has a defense that has been hurt by dual threat QBs, including giving up 140 yards to Charlotte 49ers QB, Hassan Klugh only two weeks ago. Also contributing to this valuable line is the fact that Rice is 2-6 ATS while UAB is 6-2 ATS and riding some media hype around the fact that their football program has returned this season. Also according to the Sagarin SOS ratings, Rice has a significant edge over UAB, with a differential of 81 ranks.

Arizona +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I have to admit I have a man crush for Khalil Tate, his speed on the field is intoxicating. He still has a lot of room to grow and tends to go east and west more than he should just get up field, but I have confidence Rich will coach him through these errors. I was nervous to take them last week against a quick and agile Washington State defensive line last week but they again proved no match for Khalil Tate and this offense. He is also surrounded with great WR’s, who can high point the ball well and create the deep threat which makes this offense so dangerous. Also noteworthy in this matchup is USC’s injury report remains 3 pages long. I like Arizona to keep this game within a TD.

Michigan State TT Under 18.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Already talked about this PSU defense enough, MSU offense will struggle and what will most likely be poor weather conditions.

Stanford/Wazzu Over 55 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
This Stanford defensive line has been horrendous, ranking in the bottom 10% of almost all running categories. Although Washington State rarely runs (which is great for our over) when you allow them to run they can really put some points where I think they should have no problem running for 5 yards per carry. Stanford should have Bryce Love back and should be starting Costello, who I think is a much better QB than Chryst. Both teams have been hitting unders at a high percentage giving us a low total (and cold weather) but I still think we go over the total here, easily.

Oklahoma State ML (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
The advanced stats in this matchup show a strong advantage for Oklahoma State, especially on offense. Oklahoma’s defense is actually ranked 103rd in Defensive S&P ratings and 63rd in FEI. Their struggles have mostly been in the secondary and area where Oklahoma State excels. I think we pull off the revenge win here as there seems to be a strong ESPN backing for the sooners.

Smutbucket · 11-04-17, 09:13 AM

Week 10:
Texas A&M +15 (-110)
Rice +10.5 ( -110)
Arizona +7.5 (-110)
Michigan State TT Under 18.5 (-110)
Stanford/Wazzu Over 55 (-103)
Oklahoma State ML (-115)

GoCougs! · 11-04-17, 09:40 AM

Solid picks. I was on the other side of Rice v. UAB.....I think I will pass now. I like the Wazzu over. Good luck on all your plays.

Smutbucket · 11-04-17, 01:14 PM

Thanks Cougs

Headed down to the miami game in a bit, love this pick.

Adding:
Vtech/Miami Over 46.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units

Smutbucket · 11-05-17, 10:24 AM

MY sincere apologies to anyone who tailed. Never had a day this bad in 5 years in handicapping. Back to square 1.

Im reading a book now called "Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder" which is basically about how certain things benefit from shocks....chaos, volatility, randomness, disorder and stressors...it's the exact opposite of being fragile, its antifragile. It's more than just being resilient. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; but the anti-fragile gets better.

Week 10 : 0-6 -6.65 units
Season Results: 46-41 (53%) -.79 units

Smutbucket · 11-06-17, 07:23 PM

I will work my ass off for the remainder of the season to right this ship. I got complacent last week and suffered the consquences; no more freaking around.

Week 11:

Duke -2 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
Jim Knowles is very familiar with facing option offenses and has a track record of successfully leading defenses to contain them. The last two years vs Army, he held them to 278 rushing yards on 92 carries, just 3 yards per carry and under 60 passing yards each year. Duke is also coming off a BYE week to prepare for it. Duke’s SOS was also much more difficult than Army’s so don’t be fooled by the differential in win/loss record. Despite their weak schedule, Army has one of the worst defensive lines according to adjusted line yards. They are ranked 118th in Adjusted line yards, #119th on standard downs, 98th in opportunity rate, 118th in power success rate, 106th in stuff rate, and 76 in adjusted sack rate. Something Duke should fully take advantage of given their much stronger SOS and better comparable offensive adjusted line yard stats. Dukes defense started off the year really strong, but has faltered as of lately due to a tough ring of ACC opponents including Miami, UVA, FSU, Pitt, and Va Tech. But their remaining schedule is relatively light, facing back to back option opponents and then wake forest afterwards. This BYE week they should take full advantage of, and look to bounce back from a 5 game losing streak, after winning the first four games.

Georgia -2 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Although the score did not show it the Auburn/Texas AM game should have been much closer than it was (15 point game) but fortunately for Auburn they capitalized on Texas AM’s special team mistakes and blocked two punts, including one for a TD. An oversight they won’t be able exploit against this UGA team who is ranked #2 in Special Teams S&P ratings. Texas AM had the upper hand at the LOS like I predicted, racking up 8 TFLs against Auburn and no reason to think this elite Georgia defense doesn’t cause more issues for this banged up offensive line. UGA’s defense loves to blitz DB’s and LB’s, ranking 14th in DB Havoc rate, and 10th in LB Havoc rate. They are extremely effective at bringing this pressure yet defending the pass at the same time as they are ranked #1 in opponent yards per pass, only allowing 5.1. They are ranked #12 in opponent yards per rush, #9 in adjusted line yards, and various top 10 rankings in power success rates and opportunity rates. Kirby Smart is well aware of how Clemson shut down Auburn’s offense and will be sure to exploit the weaknesses of Jared Stidham. Look for UGA to win by 4-7 points in what should be a close exciting SEC game to watch.

TCU +7.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Locking this in now while we can get the TD, possession + ½ points. Despite winning by 10 last week, Oklahoma had many fortunate breaks that led to that outcome, including a clear fumble return TD that was overturned and called an incomplete pass in the first few minutes of the game. Oklahoma simply exploited a weakness in Oklahoma’s states secondary, giving up 8 passing plays of 20+ yards including a few 50+ yarders. Their running game was bottled up pretty well, until Oklahoma State allowed a 53 yard run at the end of the game to seal their loss. Before that run, Oklahoma State had held Oklahoma to 3.4 yards per carry and a total of 134 rushing yards. Meanwhile Oklahoma’s defense was atrocious at all levels, giving up 6.3 yards per rush and 8.3 yards per pass. Considering how bad Oklahoma’s defense is I feel like it would take more extreme circumstances for this not be a one TD possession game.

Smutbucket · 11-10-17, 09:16 AM

Adding tonights game:

Washington -6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Washington has significant edges in most advanced statistics in this matchup. On the line of scrimmage, the differential is huge on both sides of the ball. In adjusted line yards, on defense Washington is ranked 19th in the nation and top 20 in most statistical categories, while Stanford offensive line is bottom of the pack and excels at pass protection but struggles everywhere else. Stanford has some of the lowest defensive line rankings in all categories; and Washington is in the upper echelon on offense. Rarely do you see such large differentials and such a low spread but I think the Stanford name is giving themselves credit. In last years matchup, Washington dominated the line of scrimmage as well, holding Stanford to 30 rushing yards and 1 yard per carry and rushing themselves for 5.2 yards per carry. Although racking up 8 sacks for a negative of 47 yards surely attributed to this number but McCaffrey was still bottled up for 49 rushing yards on 12 carries. The FEI ratings agree, Washington is a top 10 team on defense and on offense. Stanford is barely a top 30 team on offense and an average team on defense. No reason to think this game doesn’t follow suit of last season; and if Costello struggles early at all, look for a quarterback carousel to add to the confusion, as he will be on a short leash after last start vs Washington State.

Smutbucket · 11-11-17, 09:49 AM

Week 11 Additions:

Indiana/Illinois under 49 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Both teams are heavily banged up on the offensive side of the ball, missing lots of backs and receivers. Indiana may be missing its freshman QB, Peyton Ramsey, who replaced Lagow when he was not performing well. Lagow is not a mobile QB like Ramsey and really limits this offense to rely on it’s receivers to get open, but they are banged up. Even with Ramsey this season their offense has been ranked in the bottom 10% of explosiveness and efficiency S&P ratings. Although this Illinois defense is nothing impressive, Indiana’s defense has been. They are ranked 42nd in defensive FEI ratings and 29th in adjusted line yards. They should have no problem slowing down this Illinois offense that has struggled all season and is ranked 120th in FEI ratings. A particular mismatch should be on long passing downs where Indiana has proven successful ranking 2nd in the nation in adjusted sack rate while Illinois ranks #113th. Although Indiana’s fast pace of play (ranked 8th) is a little disconcerting; it should be offset and slow in the 2nd half if they gain a large lead by Illinois’s 122nd ranked adjusted pace. Think this game stays under and the fact that this matchup was such a high scoring affair last year gives us some value.

Louisville -12 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This is one of the few games I will bet where I feel confident in the pick based off the opposite intention of the line. This line is begging you to take Virginia with little on the surface to support taking Lousiville. Digging a little deeper you will notice a huge discrepancy at the line of scrimmage as Louisville is ranked #1 in adjusted line yards, and Virginia is ranked #110 on defensive adjusted line yards. Lousiville has also had a significant edge in SOS and are ranked 2-7 ATS. This is one of the rare tinfoil hat specials that I like based on the line and not so much the numbers. Last year my tinfoil hat specials were 0-2 but it should be noted both losses were extremely bad beats (Stanford vs UCLA and the under in a blowout game where the winning team went for it on 4th and 1 with 3 minutes left on the 50 yard line and ran it for a TD). Let’s hope the resurrection of the tinfoil hat special will rekindle the spark we need for a great week.

Wake Forest +1 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
This Wake Forest team has been impressive all season including last week (despite losing) putting up 37 points against Notre Dame and rushing for almost 6 yards per carry. Wolford has been playing out of his mind completing 65% of his passes, 8.8 yards per pass attempt, 17 TD, and only 3 INTS, and has rushed for 400 yards on 86 carries. Their defense has been playing great as well, ranking 16th in havoc rate, 35th in passes deflected to incompletion rate, 23rd in opponents completion %, and 3rd in TFL per game at 8.7. This will cause fits for this Syracuse offense who has a few injuries on the offensive line. Last week, offensive line struggled with these injuries giving up 3 sacks, 9 hurries, and 9 broken up passes. Throughout the season, even when they were healthy this Syracuse offense is ranked 110th in TFL allowed per game, giving up 7 per game. This Syracuse defense has struggled lately and has been run all over in the last 5 games giving up over 5 yards per carry. I see strong advantages on both sides of the ball for us in this matchup for Wake Forest and I think we win this one pretty easily by 3-7 points.

Mississippi State +13.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Mississippi State ML (+435) Risking .5 units to win 2.18 units
Alabama beats teams up at the line of scrimmage and has used that as their recipe the last few seasons. That will not come so easy this game against a Mississippi State line I already talked about is one of the best in the nation on both sides of the ball. Fitzgerald can make plays with his feet and this elite Alabama defensive line that has a 9% adjusted sack rate will struggle to get the production they get in the pass rush against this Mississippi State offense that is only allowing sacks on 2.24% of their passes; ranked 6th in the nation. Alabama also has some key injuries on defense including 2 of their top 5 tacklers. Alabama has yet to be tested this season, with their most difficult opponent coming last week against LSU where they won by only 14. They have been used to taking big leads and winning easily but this one will be a tough fight to the end and even look for Mississippi state to pull out the win.

Missouri -12.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Missouri’s offense is finally starting to click after struggling early on in the season. They should have no problem scoring against this banged up defense. Although Missouri is known for their pass happy offense, they have been particularly effective on the ground; rushing for 4.8 yards per carry this season, and ranking 16th in adjusted line yards. They should fully exploit this Tennessee defensive line that is ranked 103rd in defensive line yards, and the bottom 10% of opportunity rate, power success rate and stuff rate. This Tennessee team is also extremely banged up like I mentioned earlier with 16 players on their injury report, including their starting QB Dormandy, and their backup Guarantano who will be a gametime decision. Their 3rd string QB, Will McBride who came in for Guarantano last week completed only 1 pass out of 8 attempts against Southern Mississippi. This Missouri defense has also improved, holding its last 3 opponents to under 21 points; while putting up 45+of their own. After winning 3 straight there’s no reason to think this positive trajectory for this Missouri team does not continue.