1. #1
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    DapperDan Football '15. Welcome Friendlies.

    Wutup Fellas. Another fine year of football is upon us.

    Been posting here for a few years now. Love seeing my regulars chime in. Last year was first year ever I had a losing season in football. I'm the type of person though to closely analyze my mistakes and attempt to learn from them. last year did not sit well but Im confident I can go back to having a winning season this year.

    Heres my older threads. I am a very diligent record keeper (key is to not let it build up) All my records are accurate and anyone who disagrees let me know and Ill double check but im certain theyre accurate I dont fuk around with records. When I get more time I want to do a breakdown of totals/MLs/ATS but havent got around to it yet.

    NCAAF '12 Season: 80-58 + 22.7 units http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...hread-p14.html
    NCAAF '13 Season: 96-97 + 11.47 http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...n-smut-p5.html
    NCAAF '14 Season: 66-86 - 28.6 units http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...season-p3.html

    NCAAF Overall Postings: 242-241 +5.57 units

    Hell yes were above 50%! : (Also note I have rid my record of all PUSHes)
    This year gonna limit my picks and include some breakdowns although I say it every year and get caught up with other things I intend to hold to it this year.

    Already worked up games just gonna post in next couple hours.

    Last edited by Smutbucket; 09-03-15 at 12:14 PM.

  2. #2
    ZIPPER HEAD
    ZIPPER HEAD's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-17-13
    Posts: 2,570
    Betpoints: 4775

    Good to see u Dapper. 3 team tease for me tonight. NC,TCU,UTAH. GL bro

  3. #3
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    NCAAF WEEK 1:

    South Carolina -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    At first glance, I was leaning all UNC. 10 returning starters on offense, hiring of Gene Chizik, yada...yada...But after delving into the numbers and film of Connor Mitch, I have swayed the other direction. First off the big question mark, Connor Mitch, South Carolinas new QB leading the offense. From watching his youtube highlights from highschool he looks quite impressive, he seems to have the improvisational, calm and collected demeanor who handles pressure well. Although not fast he can move around in the pocket well with good footwork and is very rothlesburg-esque in the pocket, always keeping his eyes down the field and improvising nicely getting the ball out however he can in manziel-ish fashion. Although average arm strength his accuracy is pinpoint and he comes from a lineage of QBs so he's well versed in the fundamentals. In Steve Spurrier we trust. Yes Spurrier with 25 years head coaching expierence (over 3x that of Fedora) is one of the coaching elites. His preparedness is telling in his opening game record of 23-2 (although we all remember last years beatdown by TexA&M opening night, Sumlin had a hell of a gameplan) Fedoras teams historically have come out flatfooted like when they went down big early last year against a terrible Liberty University. They also met in season opener in 2013 where south carolina won soundly 27-10 against UNC. Spurrier is 2-0 ATS vs Fedora as well. Spurrier should win this one too with superior talent and coaching.

    Minnesota +17 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Larry Kill, a not so well known name but one of the best college football coaches around. 17 points is way too much to give to this team who has a lot of returning pieces including its starting QB, Leidner. Kill is not only one to tirelessly prepare his team for opening week but hes a guru at 2nd half adjustments. His 2nd half ATS winning percentage is one of the highest in college football at 40-19 ATS 2nd half lines. Weve all heard the endless hype of TCU and their returning starters on offense but teams that tend to be hyped that much and UNDERVALUED as much as they were the season prior tend to be OVERVALUED the following season. Perfect example is 2013 seminoles who came in completely undervalued by oddsmakers going 11-3 ATS, only to be severely over-hyped the '14 season and going an abysmal 3-11 ATS. Last year was the year to bet this TCU team with a 11-2 ATS, don't look for that same value this season and the opening game at minnesota is the best time to hop on this theory. If you have the patience (I dont know how thats possible opening night) try to get a nice 2nd half line but i think 17 is more than enough and even the ML is very intriguing as hard to believe as it is with all the tcu hype.

    Utah/Michigan Under 46 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Lots of Question Marks in this game. But lots of things we know for sure. Both teams strong points last season were their defenses. Both coaching styles are conservative run heavy offenses. New system in michigan playing in thin aired high above sea level environment. look for both teams to play the clock and look to win a low scoring affair. Both defenses will come out ready to play.

  4. #4
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    Quote Originally Posted by ZIPPER HEAD View Post
    Good to see u Dapper. 3 team tease for me tonight. NC,TCU,UTAH. GL bro
    Thanks! hopefully we both hit as we appear to be on the opposite sides of a couple tonight but you got some extra points with the tease. GL on the season.

  5. #5
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    3-0 start +3units

    Nothing for today....On to Tomorrow....will add more later today or tmrw....but had to lock these bueaties in....

    Northwestern +11.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Northwestern TT Over 17.5 (-120) Risking .6 units to win .5 units
    Stanford TT Under 30 (-120) Risking .6 units to win .5 units
    Northwestern ML (+350) Risking .5 units to win 1.75 units
    Clayton Thorson, a soon to be household name in the college football realm. He's a redshirt freshman, but he's got everything. Height, Arm Strength, Speed, Mobility. He was just the missing piece this Northwestern offense needed to get to the next level. The only reason you havent heard about him yet is because he went to highschool in Wheaton, Illinois; never giving him an opportunity to be recruited by the big schools. The best up and coming dual threat QB in my opinion. Combine that with stanfords depleted defense and shaky offense and you have the recipe for a nice opening game upset. I think worst case we come out of these bets up +1 units but hitting all 4 including the ML would be HUGE in this opening week. David Shaw is a very bland playcaller and was handed a star program after harbaugh left, it has slowly been in decline ever since and this year could be the year he gets the ax if the team doesnt perform. One thing for sure is, were getting a lot of stanford hype, hogan too, hype thats unwarranted but typical of espn "pundits." If you can see past all the ESPN hoopla about the 9 returning starters on offense, you will see a very shitty offense is in fact returning. An Offense that was sure able to put up 35+ points against the Armys, UC Davis, Washingtion St, Oregon State, Cal, UCLA type teams that fill the PAC12 with their shitty defenses. But against ANY respectable team, USC, Notre Dame, Arz State (good D?), Oregon, Utah, they averaged 13.4 points per game (and only put up 20 on washington). Pat Fitzgerald on the other hand is one to take risks, someone whose deeply entrenched in the program and has had 2 bad back to back seasons that can be entirely attributed to shitty qb play, thank God siemian is gone. Combine all these factors with Northwestern being at home opening saturday with stanford flying out east for a 12 noon game. and thats why I am ALL OVER THIS GAME. CANT FREAKING WAIT!

    3 Team ML Parlay: Auburn ML (-400) + Alabama ML (-500) + OSU (-600)
    Risking 1.5 units to win 1 units
    This ones pretty straightforward. These 3 teams should probably cover but will win without a doubt. All three possess much superior talent and coaching then their opponents. I don't play these often but sometimes the 2-3 team heavy juiced ML parlay is the play, and this is good time for it.

    Tex/Notre Dame Under 51 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    This under immediately stood out to me.Both coaches are coaches that like to run slow clock consuming conservative type offenses that control the clock and rely on their defenses. Both defenses were the strongpoints of each of these teams last year. Two Advisors I trust, my brother and totals Guru, BifftFininacial have also selected this pick. Dont need to get into too deep into this one because this much is more than enough for me to put one unit on and feel confident about it.


    Good luck fellas....Will do a little weekly post review notes/comments of games once week is over too for future reference.

  6. #6
    ZIPPER HEAD
    ZIPPER HEAD's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-17-13
    Posts: 2,570
    Betpoints: 4775

    Nice hit yesterday Dan- TCU F ME

  7. #7
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    Adding
    Iowa -9.5 (-110) risking 1.1 u to win 1 unit

  8. #8
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    Adding
    Iowa -9.5 (-110) risking 1.1 u to win 1 unit

  9. #9
    blackeyeshamus
    swampdog stomp!
    blackeyeshamus's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-19-11
    Posts: 6,612
    Betpoints: 2069

    Bol sb!

  10. #10
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    Northwestern..... love all the commentating during the game .... "whats wrong with hogan? why isnt he performing like he did in the last 3 games last year against maryland, cal, or ucla? no one could have saw this coming"

    oops not sure why it posted iowa twice I was driving and posted from phone...actually my other added pick was a teaser with penn state and byu but Im obviously not gonna count it for record keeping purposes as my posting got ****** up and it added iowa twice...

    week 1 in ncaaf continues to be a cash cow

  11. #11
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    Week 1 Review

    week 1 review

    South Carolina -2 (-110) WIN + 1 unit
    thanks to marquis williams for giving us the easy win. learned by betting on him last year how capable he is of disastrously awful throws. connor mitch had some jitters early and a few bad throws but all of his long balls were right on point and only reason didnt connect is because of some good defense by unc's corners/dropped wrs right in hands. Elijah hood was an unexpected force to be reckoned with. UNC is a pretty good team and fedora will utiliza their talents like hood and switzer going forward while limiting the bum marquis williams. Spurrier with some superb coaching as usual sneaking in the early 4th down punt fake. south carolina gonna be a solid team going forward their defense is much improved and I already noticed a lot of "hate" on the forums saying so car sucks so thats a good sign for so car backers.

    Minnesota +17 (-110) WIN + 1 unit
    another game went very well and had a few good breaks to keep it close. Larry Kill continues to be an adjustment guru going down early but still rallying his team from behind to make it close, just as expected. Improves to 41-19 2nd half ATS....UN FUGGING REAL.

    Utah/Michigan Under 47 (-110) WIN + 1 units
    Was leaning michigan up and coming to the night before the game was played, then I realized jake rudock was starting for michigan. If youll notice in my previous threads over the last few years I have lost a lot of money because of this asshole ruddock betting on Iowa. a bad QB like that can single handedly cost you games just like he did in this one. team looked pretty good though besides him and we can expect the team turnaround within the next 2 years with harbaugh coaching.

    Northwestern +11.5 / ML / TT Over /Stan TT Under (3-1) +2.65 units
    Wish I woulda went bigger on the points as it was clear early on that was never in question. David shaw continued his conserative playcalling and lost any chance of winning. Clayton struggled throughout the game but hes young and showed off his speed rushing for 68 yards in the matchup including a 42 yard rushing touchdown. Almost covered the TT over too as missed a FG early and got a pick 6 towards the end of the game they coulda ran back but decided to kneel down and take the big UPSET win with class.

    3 Team ML Parlay : Auburn/Alabama/OSU WIN + 1 unit
    Alabama - How does bama continue to get these rediculously insanely good running backs one after the other? derrick henry is serious. didnt really watch much of bama game was watching texam/arz state and tex/nd so...gotta try to watch qbs performances later in week if anyone has info to chime in on this one let me know
    Auburn - Didnt watch much of this game need to go over box scores and look into any info on would be great.
    OSU - Wow. Cardale Jones. Braxton Miller. They should be a covering machine going forward with a weak schedule and Barret Jones playing mop up duty padding his stats, especially with a coach like urban who likes to pile on the points.

    Iowa -9.5 (-110) WIN + 1 unit
    was waiting for this line for days but books were sneaky and released it only a few hours before gametime (at least some did I know a buddy of mine couldnt even put bet in on it) Sorry only posted 15 min before game time I was traveling and noticed late. as I mentioned earlier and in previous threads, Ruddock has been dentrimental to iowas success over the last few years and I love beathard (he played a few games last year when ruddock got hurt) hes got a hell of an arm and can be extremely accurate with a very tight spiral and bueatiful throw making it easier for recievers to catch, he can also scamper a bit not great but he can get some yards including a 6 yard td run in this one. iowa will be another team we'll be following closely throughout the season as I love their program.

    Notre Dame/Texas Under 51 (-110) WIN + 1 unit
    was a little worried Notre Dame would cover the 51 on their own and they were easily blowing texas d-line back 3-4 yards every down and they ended up just running down their throat playing a quick clock as texas looked tired and spent. Texas offense was atrocious and notre dame d looked very strong. Gotta look more into stats too later in week as I was flipping in between a few games during this one.



    Week 1 Results : 9-1 +8.65 units

  12. #12
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    Week 2 NCAAF: Early Play:


    Oklahoma -1 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
    some may know baker mayfields story, but for those who don't know, he was the first ever true freshman WALK ON who started opening game at texxas tech in 2013, someone who was not heavily recruited only got a few offers from few small schools (even after winning state championship as a junior) but wanted to play somewhere with a respectable football program, so he a texas native, attended texas tech, walked on, and worked his way up to starting role. YOU NEED TO LOOK DAMN GOOD TO DO THIS. he got injured in the middle of the season and his starting job began to be questioned, with an opportunity to go to oklahoma he leapt at the chance and had to sit out all of 2014, now he starts in 2015 and hes a very tough competitor, not very tall, not extremely fast, not a huge arm, but just someone whose a true competitor and leaves everything out on the field, and works his ass off, with some good accuracy. Starting for Tennessee is the much hyped Josh Dobbs, who played several games last year and in 2013 when tennessee struggled with staying competitive and injuries (nullified his red-shirt twice half way thorough the seasons) in those games although fast and having a cannon for an arm, he seems to lack control of his arm, especially on passes over 20 yards, he has no "lay-in" soft pass, he seems to throw it every time like a goddamn missile and at times its inaccurate, tough to catch and not what you want. He seems a little too show-boaty to me and wants to throw missiles and show off his arm in tight coverage which worked for him against the shittier teams but wont work against this OU defense. Not to mention most of his passing yardage in his "wins" were against weak defenses last year like kentucky and south carolina. In those games too he just threw a lot of flats and swing passes that the receivers just broke tackles and got a ton of YAC against those soft defenses. that wont happen in this game, stoops will have his players ready for the read option too and will force this fast little dual threat QB to use his arm to beat them. Im also a fan of lincoln riley, OUs new offensive coordinator, a disciple of mike leach. he is young but has had some impressive offenses he has coordinated at ECU and worked for a while at Texas Tech. In last years matchup, OU demolished Tennessee with a 34-10 win, including 12 TFL, 5 sacks, 8 hurries, 2 forced fumbles, 4 broken up passes. This year probably wont be as much of a blowout but ill take OU in practically a pk em all day.

  13. #13
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    Week 2 Additions

    Hola fellas...locked in a few of these last night....msu just finally dropped to 3 so locking it in for 1.5 units....heres my additions and writeups....will probably add a couple more Saturday just waiting on some line movement/late info

    Week 2 Additions

    Notre Dame -12.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    People seem to remeber how teams finish out the season more so than the beginning of seasons. Notre Dames defense was a powerhouse in the beginning of last season but because of their last 5 games (during which they were WRECKED by injuries on defense) they are not remembered for having a good defense. This year, the entire strong studly defense came back, and they looked ridiculously good against texas. some say texas offense is just that bad. I think its the 10 returning starters on this defense, many of which were banged up last season, but looked healthy and overpowering in the texas game.They constantly pressured texas with 8 hurries, 4 sacks, and 7 TFL. Starting QB Matt Johns for uva has struggled with INTs and poor decisions in the past and look for a few in this game against the toughest D matt johns will have faced. Although uva was ranked as one of the better rushing defenses in the league last year, one could argue those stats were heavily padded against some weak teams like kent state who only rushed for 34 yards on 33 carries against uva last year. Also they lost their entire LB crew and struggled to defend passing teams last year, Notre Dame is more than capable of passing on them and Brian Kelly is the type of coach to utilize whatever's working against a particular defense whether its running it down their throat like we saw last week against texas or throwing it downfield with weapons like will fuller and chris brown. Brian Kelly has also proven to be an elite coach and it will be interesting to see how this team performs under new OC Mike Sanford from Boise State.

    Michigan State -3 (-115) Risking 1.73 units to win 1.5 units
    Michigan State had arguably one of the best front 7 on defenses last season, (allowing the least rushing yards per game at 88.5 and 3.17 ypc/8th in nation) 5 of the 7 starters have returned including 3 of 4 starters of a defensive line that ranked in the top 10 of every defensive line category in FO*. (Last week they held Western Michigan to a laughable 18 rushing yards on 23 attempts LOL ) They also have one of the most efficient offenses last season with Connor Cook a very experienced starter returning for his senior season. Although they lost most of their skill position starters, nearly their entire offensive line returns (including 2 All-Americans and 2 brothers, Jack and Brian Allen) that ranked in the upper echelon of o-lines last season. (ranked 4th best in QB sack %) Oregons dynamic rushing attack last season centered around marcus mariota. although most of their skill positions, I think we will see a drop-off in the offensive production this season from losing mariota. Their defense was definitely in the bottom tier of the league allowing 165.4 rushing yards per game, and 4.23 ypc; also allowing 264.3 passing yards per game (ranked 111) and 6.82 ypa. And they have most likely dropped off even from those poor numbers judging from the first game against eastern washington where that allowed 41 points and 438 passing yards. Despite last years meltdown in oregon, I think MSU wins this revenge matchup pretty easily as their defense gets a few big stops and their offense most likely won't be stopped at all. Lock in at 3 while you can if your bookie is offering it just to be safe.

    Colorado State +7 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Colorado is no easy place to play. Coming from someone who has lived in colorado springs, their is a hell of a difference in the air when your 5000 ft above sea level. Minnesota just coming off a hard fought battle with TCU where they got much national recognition. Colorado State flying under the radar with new head coach Mike Bobo (OC from UGA) and although they lost their starting QB to the nfl they return their top 4 pass catchers and lead all of FBS with 6268 yards returning career receiving yards. Last week they got their offense in groove and pounded a weak savanna state but I feel like with the adrenaline of being at home and new invigorated offense they can keep this one close with one of their biggest matchups of the year against minnesota. Minnesota isnt the type to blow teams out either and are still working out the kinks in their new offensive no huddle scheme. CSU has also won 9 straight home games and 14 of their last 16 at home. Although their defense struggled at times last year they recently acquired UCF defensive coordinator tyson summers who excelled at ucf and is installing a new 3-4 defense.

    2 Team 6 pt Teaser. South Carolina -1 and Arkansas -15 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Last year Arkansas had an Offensive Line larger than any NFL team, let alone college. This year they return 4 of the starting 5 on their line, including their QB and the majority of their starters on offense. They brought in new offensive coordinator Dan Enos, to give their passing game some life which struggled in the big games. Look for them to not take their foot off the gas and open their playbook up through the air as they often struggled last year to maintain leads resorting to conservative playcalling that cost them a few games. Toledo, although sported a potent rushing attack in 2014 ranking 11th in yards per carry. Lost their entire Offensive line and starting RB star kareem hunt suspended, which is sure to cause fits for them their first couple games. Toledo also for whatever reason did not play anyone last week so look for their offense to struggle early on while arkansas already smashed UTEP by 35 points with 4 passing touchdowns from returning senior QB Brandon Allen.

    Already talked about all the things I like about south carolina last week. Last years lost to kentucky can be attributed to 3 INTs (one for a TD) and 7 broken up passes against a struggling Dylan Thompson. That won't happen this year with good ole Connor Mitch. Look for him to have a big break out game and test this kentucky team with his spot on deep ball.

    Oregon State TT Over 14 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    With a new coaching staff including head coach Gary Anderson from Wisconsin and Dave Baldwin OC from colorado state, should be able to put up at least 14 points against this Michigan Defense. Seth Collins is their young freshman QB and if you put his name on youtube and hudl you can seem him hurdle atleast 4 different defenders and land on his feet just in the last year, a few in highschool, one in the spring game, and one last week against weber state. Guy has a stride like a deer and although they probably wont win or cover we can feel safe about scoring 14 points with Oregon state throwing out all the stops in their playbook, shit maybe even rudock will give us 7 points too.


    *FO = Football Outsiders. One of the best advanced statistical databases for football, in years past they only offered their advanced stats for Offensive and Defensive Lines for the NFL but this year they have started to utilize them for NCAAF as well. Making handicappers lives a hell of a lot easier and a hell of a lot more effective. I will be refrencing their stats a lot throughtout the season merely as FO.
    Last edited by Smutbucket; 09-11-15 at 04:10 AM. Reason: corrected units on msu game

  14. #14
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    Week 2 Addition:

    BYU +2.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Everyone's familiar with the injury of Taysum Hill and the great comeback victory for BYU in the last few remaining seconds of last week. A cliche Ive already seen fill these forums and others talk about a "letdown" spot after coming off a big emotional last second win last week. Lets look at the game facts. First off although Taysum Hill is an absolute animal, a true dual threat with a very accurate arm is out for the season, backup Tanner Mangum proved worthy filling in the come from behind victory in nebraska. He won't have any trouble this week either throwing to his two 6'6 receivers and one 6'5 wr, an almost un-defendable task for boise states 4 cornerbacks whose tallest one stands in at 5'10. Boise already receiving a ton of hype for its 17 returning starters, 6 of which were ALL CONFERENCE, lol, mountain west conference, what a friggin joke. Boise will feel the pressure to win as its no secret their known for their shitty schedule and will need to win every game just to have a slim chance of making the playoffs. Their new starting QB struggled throwing the ball only completing 17 of 27 for 152 yards and an interception. They in turn turned to the run game 185 yards on 53 carries against Washington to squeak out a 16-13 win. They won't be able to run like that against this solid BYU front who averaged 14th last year in ypc at 3.28 and allowed only 121.9 rushing yards per game. All of which are returning starters except for MLB Harvey Langi. Look for BYU to fight a hard battle and maybe even pull off the upset despite the 55-30 beatdown they recieved last year in boise. But playing at BYU is a whole different story and although much of these two teams return, the same starting qbs from last season, do not. Was gonna wait and hope for this to move to 3, but I dont think its gonna get there, and not worth the .20 cents to buy to 3. think we can win this one outright but an extra 2.5 I feel comfortable.

  15. #15
    oh_lol
    oh_lol's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-07-10
    Posts: 196
    Betpoints: 450

    Phew, been doing well

  16. #16
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    Week 2 Card:
    Michigan State -3 (-115) Risking 1.73 units to win 1.5 units
    Oklahoma -1 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
    Notre Dame -12.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    Colorado State +7 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    2 Team 6 pt Teaser. South Carolina -1 and Arkansas -15 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Oregon State TT Over 14 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    BYU +2.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

  17. #17
    joco
    joco's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-24-11
    Posts: 3,156
    Betpoints: 6509

    lets get em dan

  18. #18
    CTOWNsCAPPIN
    Update your status
    CTOWNsCAPPIN's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-11-11
    Posts: 3,085
    Betpoints: 33

    Great start and BOL Dan!

  19. #19
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    Argh 7 pts in first 2 min. Rest of game . 0....cant win em all..

    HOLY HELLA LINE MOVEMENT......all these games....

    CSU down to 3.5
    ND now at 15
    MSU 4.5
    Oklahoma 3 as expected


    BYU moved against us to 3 which was unexpected.... got a couple more plays for night games in the works just waiting to post

  20. #20
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    Week 2 Adding:

    Boise State Team Total Under 30 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1u nits
    Missouri/Arkansas State Under 56 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

  21. #21
    CTOWNsCAPPIN
    Update your status
    CTOWNsCAPPIN's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-11-11
    Posts: 3,085
    Betpoints: 33

    Great thread you have going and thanks for sharing

  22. #22
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    Thanks CTOWNsCAPPIN another profitable week.....also going to be posting my NFL plays per usual in this thread as well......

    what a freaking day of football....will post notes/analysis on games later in week....

    Week 2 Card Graded:
    Michigan State -3 (-115) Risking 1.73 units to win 1.5 units P Push
    Oklahoma -1 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units W +1.5 units
    Notre Dame -12.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units L -1.2 units
    Colorado State +7 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units W +1 units
    2 Team 6 pt Teaser. South Carolina -1 and Arkansas -15 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units L -1.1 units
    Oregon State TT Over 14 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units L -1.2 units
    BYU +2.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units W +1 unit
    Boise State Team Total Under 30 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1u nits W + 1 units
    Missouri/Arkansas State Under 56 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units W +1 units

    Week 2 Results: 5-3 +2 units


    NCAAF Total '15: 14-4 +10.65 units

  23. #23
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    NFL Review:

    My Overall NFL Picks:

    NFL 2012: 79-64 +7.01 units
    NFL 2013: 60-64 -9.48 units
    NFL 2014: 48-40 +2.43 units


    NFL Total YTD: 187-168 -.04 units


    (the links for picks can be found on top of page with my NCAAF links I always post in same thread)


    Sadly Im just barely down less than half of 1/10 of a unit over the last 3 years in NFL...as you can see Im way above 50% though so my NFL needs some weighting corrections....one day Im gonna total up everything more indepth to see how Im doing as far as ML/totals/ATS/Team Totals....

    Anyways Just wanted to get it all totaled up for season kickoff tomorrow....will post picks in the morning.....

  24. #24
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    NFL Week 1:
    Chiefs pk (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Lions +3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    2 team 6 pt Teaser. Packers -1 and Giants +13 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Browns +4.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
    2 Team ML Parlay. Broncos and Dolphins (+117) Risking 1 unit to win 1.17 units


    debating whether or not to add lions tt over 21 or broncos tt over 24.5 ....both are 4pm games so will post later on if some late info comes up on these

  25. #25
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    NFL Week 1 Card Graded:
    NFL Week 1:
    Chiefs pk (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units W +1 UNIT
    Lions +3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units L -1.1 UNITS
    2 team 6 pt Teaser. Packers -1 and Giants +13 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units W +1 UNIT
    Browns +4.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units L -1.15 UNITS
    2 Team ML Parlay. Broncos and Dolphins (+117) Risking 1 unit to win 1.17 units W +1.17 UNITS

    Week 1 NFL Results: 3-2 +.92 units

  26. #26
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    Locking in a couple Week 3 NCAAF early while lines are nice....


    Nebraska +4 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    Im a hurricanes fan as some of you know, and I have never bet against them I think in all my years. (just lost a ton of money betting on them over the years) But technically this is not betting against them as the ideal turnout and the turnout Im "betting" on is a miami 2-3 point win. even better a last second hail mary and we win by 1. Anyways Armstrong is tremendously better this season under new head coaches mike rileys offense, and he has really developed nicely going into this game. Last year he beat miami with his legs and ran for 96 yards on only 13 carries. LY, Nebraska as a team ran for 343 yards against miami averaging 6.35 yards per carry. Meanwhile Miami even with a much better duke johnson running and o-line only put up 76 yards on 23 carries averaging 3.3 ypc. Although Kaaya threw for 359 yards against nebraska last year, he doesnt have nearly the talent of support around him that he had last year. Miami also was unable to get much push up front against this nebraska team, getting 0 TFL, 0 sacks, and 0 hurries in last years matchup. This should be a close game and hopefully miami pulls out the win but I wont be surprised at all if nebraska pulls off the upset. Important to lock this game in soon as I see this line moving a lot by the end of the week. lines have been moving like crazy this season.

  27. #27
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    NCAAF Week 3 Addition:

    Georgia Tech -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    This ones kinda an obvious pick. Notre Dame is mounting up the injuries once again, just lost starting QB Zaire, bringing in new 1st game starter, Kizer. One of those highly touted 6'5 dual threats that doesnt really have anything impressive about him. His 40 time a measly 4.96, a highlight film in high school full of slow defenders and wide open recievers. On the other side of the ball you have seasoned veteran justin thomas, someone who is now a master of paul johnsons elite adaptive offense and he runs a friggin "4.3" 40 consistently, not many NFL players can do that. Unlike previous paul johnsons quarterbacks he has a respectable arm too really opening up paul johnsons playbook, something that has troubled gtech in years past. Look for an emotionally drained notre dame team to quickly lose sight of this game as a prepared and sharp georgia tech offense wears down this notre dame defense as I think they will be on the field for most of the game, as ND offense sputters with all its injuries. Lock in this line at 2 while you can because I would assume the money will come pouring in on georgia tech but you never know because notre dame seems to have large gamblers market that has consistently overvalued its lines for years now.

  28. #28
    crackerjack
    crackerjack's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-01-06
    Posts: 3,366
    Betpoints: 1412

    Good luck this week.

  29. #29
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    Thanks CrackerJack, Week 3 Addition:


    Ole Miss +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    This line makes 0 sense. Ole miss had less experience and talent last year and still beat bama in a close game. This year nearly their entire team returns except their weakest link, bo wallace, and they are 7 point dogs against a less experienced less talented bama team than last years bama? This has to be a reflection of the market, a market that heavily bets alabama. Ill take ole miss and 7.5 points all damn day. People overlooking ole miss because of their 2 cupcake games they played so far, ones they averaged 74.5 points and 9.33 yards per play. Was Bama's first 2 games that much harder? I mean wisconsin in a rebuilding year with new coach new program, including loss of their stud RB melvin gordon. A wisconsin team that smashes mediocre teams but still of course lost to majority of the few respectable teams they played last year including a 59-0 beatdown by OSU. Although untested, I really like what I have seen out of chad kelly. Hes a JUCO transfer from eastern miss cc who went 12-0 and won the national championship for juco colleges, so hes coming in with some gametime experience besides highschool. His footwork looks great and is just quick enough to keep defenses honest. He was rated top dual threat qb by 247sports,espn, and rivals. This will be his test. Will sprinkle some on ml too when it comes out as an upset is definitely a possibility but I LOVE the points.

  30. #30
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    Adding Week 3:
    Clemson -6 (-120) Risking .6 units to win .5 units
    Clemson is flying a little under the radar this year. Maybe because so far they've played 2 cupcake games this season. Another factor, everyone is aware that they lost almost their entire defense with only 3 returning starters. This to me is not a big issue because of Brent Venables, he is the defensive coordinator mastermind behind this #1 ranked defense in 2014 allowing only 4 yards per play. (3.1 rush/5.5 pass) Its not like their bringing in a bunch of first timers. College teams often rotate guys in and out and all but 1 of their starting d-lineman has seen at least 130 snaps, including Shaq Lawson who has 11.5 TFL last season and already has 3.5 TFL this season. This is one of the top coaching staffs in college who knows how to scheme defenses and develop players. Vic Beasley was a converted running back to DE who got 21.5 TFL last season and 12 sacks. The majority of their offense and playmakers are returning. Deshaun Watson, their QB that was battling injuries much of last season, is one of the better dual threats in college football right now, he completed 93 of 137 passes (68%) for 1486 yards, 14 TDs and only 2 INTS. He also rushed for 200 yards and had 5 TDs. My brother is also my "ACC specialist" and he likes this pick a lot. The reason I am only going in on a half unit is because I fear single games on thursday nights....some weird things happen in the past and I think its very odd that this line opened up as a pick em some places and moved all the way to six. Also Petrinos being annoying and not saying who is starting QB thursday night, I would feel a lot more comfortable knowing Lamar Jackson is starting because Ive seen him and he sucks but they might bring in Bolin or another guy but I cant imagine they are much better if Lamar Jackson beat them out over spring.

  31. #31
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    Week 3 Additions:

    Air Force Team Total Under 17 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    This number is high because Air Force has played nobody and ran up the score rushing for 822 yards in 2 games against Morgan State and San Jose State. But now they play the MSU front 7 and will probably struggle to break 150 yards. I would have stayed away from this game until I found out Air Forces normal starting QB who played the entire first 2 games is out with a knee injury. In comes new comer Karson Roberts a 6'0, 180 pound nobody who never started a game and will wish he hadnt started this one as MSU smashes this team and doesnt allow them to score more than 10 points. Also MSU's defensive line coach, Ron Burton is familiar with airforcecs system as he was an assistant coach under Troy Calhoun from 2003-2012.

    Arkansas ML (-450) + Iowa ML(-210) Parlay (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    Arkansas isnt as bad as they played last week(nor as bad as ESPN pundits are making them out to be now) and Toledo had all the cards fall in their favor and played great for them to pull off that win. Allen threw his first INT in 134 attempts in the end zone which was a crucial turnover. Arkansas dominated them in total yardage stats and completely controlled the clock and time of possession but committed 9 penalties for 85 yards. I had money on arkansas last season at texas tech and they dominated I have no doubt they'll win this game. Iowa defense is very solid this year. Allowing only 98 yards rushing and no rushing touchdowns. Their ability to stop the run also puts them in obvious passing situations where their able to pin back their ears and get sacks as they already have 9 sacks through 2 games and 6 different hawkeyes attributing with atleast 1 sack and a 10.26 sack %.Pitt has already allowed 7 sacks through 2 games against below average teams and sports one of the worst sack percentages at 16.67%. In case you didnt watch the Iowa/Iowa State game last week, Beathard, probably my favorite college QB, lived up to all his expectations. Been saying since last year he should be the starter and last week he proved it. Guy has great elusiveness and a very nice tight spiral that is damn accurate. He is as clutch as they get coming up big time and time again on critical down and distances. Iowa isnt the type of team to blow teams out of the water as they often turn to conservative approach when down so we shall take the ML parlays with Arkansas and feel very comfortable with this bet.

  32. #32
    CappinTerp
    CappinTerp's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 9,115

    Good goin bud, the AF game I am cappin tonight,early lean.....Falcons??? Best of luck to ya!!

  33. #33
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    such a frustrating loss last night. sucks when you dominate a game like that and a team gets a special teams td and a 1 of 8 attempts on a big play completed to keep it close. I wish they would just do away with kickoffs, impossible to handicap. Clemson front 7 is as good as expected absolutely dominating this front only allowing 19 rushing yards on 28 carries, 7 TFL, 5 sacks and 4 passes broken up. Venables did his job confusing this louisville front have unblocked pass rushers over and over again throughout the game. 2 bullshit roughing the passers too along with a number of other penalties that attributed to more than 25% of louisvilles yards. penetrating thursday nights.


    anyways In a bit of a rush so only quick writeup and another additions:

    Week 3 additions:
    Florida -3 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    South Carolina dominated kentucky in 2nd half and expect UF to come out firing. New starting QB redshirt freshman is the real deal. I havent watched him play but all Ive read about him is good, hes probably one of the most athletic of the incoming dual threat qbs sporting the fastest 20 shuttle time and a respectable 4.7 40 and very nice sparq scores. Ill take a new highly recruited 5 star stud freshman over bowels all day. Especially with UFs strong returning defense.

    USC -9.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Talked about how shitty stanford is. Havent heard much about USC for some reason in the media but havent been watching too much ESPN or anything. Kessler is the real deal, his stats have steadily been improving goin into his 3rd year as starting QB we know he has a strong grasp of this offense and should be able to utilitize all his weapons against a weak stanford defense.

    Adding half unit to ole miss +7.5 and a half unit on the ML at +220.

  34. #34
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    NCAAF Week 3 Card:
    Clemson -6 (-120) Risking .6 units to win .5 units LOSS - .6 units
    Nebraska +4 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    Georgia Tech -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Ole Miss +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
    Ole Miss ML (+220) Risking .5 units to win 1.1 units
    Air Force Team Total Under 17 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    Arkansas ML (-450) + Iowa ML(-210) 2 Team ML Parlay (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    Florida -3 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    USC -9.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

    (Might add some more in the morning tmrw)

  35. #35
    Smutbucket
    Smutbucket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-14-08
    Posts: 3,795
    Betpoints: 10394

    Quote Originally Posted by CappinTerp View Post
    Good goin bud, the AF game I am cappin tonight,early lean.....Falcons??? Best of luck to ya!!
    They might cover but I doubt it like I said no starting QB and MSU insider of AF system I expect them to be held to under 10 points but ya maybe theyll cover 25 but D'Antonio isnt the type to allow his team to have off weeks and had been preparing for this triple option since spring.

1234 ... Last
Top