UFC 146: Dos Santos vs. Mir

**BIGDAY** · 05-22-12, 06:02 PM

Well, I'm not finding too much value on the main card.

Hope something jumps out at me on the under.

Mir/JDS not going dist is all that I'm comfy with right now.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 05-22-12, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Well, I'm not finding too much value on the main card.

Hope something jumps out at me on the under.

Mir/JDS not going dist is all that I'm comfy with right now.

Agree Bigday... Juicey lines and tough fights to call.

I got my eye on a few undercard matches and depending on the odds there might be some nice value - we can only hope and wait n' see!!

Although, like everyone on here I htink jds itd is a great play even at the current high juice, I just don't have prop options right now unfortunately. That play will hit, I'd be shocked to see a decision or mir finish.

**fosho14** · 05-22-12, 07:00 PM

Due to Cains uncanny ability to just never stop pushing the pace, never slow down and go full tilt as hard as he can. I really don't see that one going the distance either. I give it an 80% chance that his fight ends inside the distance.

**bjpenn85** · 05-22-12, 07:05 PM

what about trying cane inside distance prop

**Vitooch** · 05-22-12, 07:08 PM

Some of the prelim lines could be interesting....not much to choose from the main card

**Wanna Bet On It?** · 05-22-12, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

what about trying cane inside distance prop

Cain has pillow fisted GnP. The Stojnic TKO was true lulz. Both fighters thought it was a standup because his GnP was not hurting Stojnic, just peppering him. The Rothwell stoppage was garbage too. Just a non-stop barrage of punches that don't hurt resilient opponents but are enough for some refs to just call it a day.

Bigfoot showed a lot of resiliency in the MAK fight. He took about 50 unanswered punches and kept working to improve his positioning or tie Kyle up.

Bottom line: I'm not planning on touching this fight too heavily either way without knowing who's reffing this fight (which will be a mystery until the PPV although it won't be Dean).

**bjpenn85** · 05-22-12, 07:19 PM

yeah, im really looking forward to a couple. Im thinking nik is def going to fail the odds setting on one or more.

**bjpenn85** · 05-22-12, 07:27 PM

I have thought about it myself. But most likely, will cane hurt silva, and most likely it will be a finish. Even tho, as you said, he doesnt necessarily posses KO power like for instance carwin, he may do enough damage to hurt silva for a tko, within 3 rounds. Its very likely. Statistically heavy weight have short life span, finishers even shorter. I think the inside distance prop for cain is an ok bet @ 1.63 for medium play.

**fosho14** · 05-22-12, 07:40 PM

Ya I agree with that BJ

**Rubber Guard** · 05-22-12, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by fosho14

Due to Cains uncanny ability to just never stop pushing the pace, never slow down and go full tilt as hard as he can. I really don't see that one going the distance either. I give it an 80% chance that his fight ends inside the distance.

I disagree and was actually thinking about this last night. I like the odds for Cain by Dec. at +335. And for those who think Bigfoot can win I like +230 the fight goes the distance.

Cain hasn't exactly finished great guys. Lesnar is afraid to get hit. Nog, I love the guy but he had staph infection and no head movement. Rothwell is tough, but if I remember correct he beat him up but Ben was wall walking to his feet when the ref stopped it. If Cain gets TDs Bigfoot has a solid blackbelt and is huge. He can tie Cain up and at least defend with his BJJ. On the feet Cain isn't exactly a 1 punch KO artist.

I also think Cain will be cautious. He needs this win. And he may look to grind Bigfoot down with his wrestling.

I love the odds on the fight going 3 rounds.

**Crassus** · 05-22-12, 08:09 PM

Struve is a sick bet in my opinion. Props hopefully will be reasonable since it will no doubt be Johnson by KO/TKO or Struve by submission. Struve should be the favorite in my opinion, Lavar Johnson almost got submitted by Pat Barry...

**bjpenn85** · 05-22-12, 08:30 PM

he may very well be cautious, but its not like ben would have taken more damage before the fight would have been stopped. The fight was stopped after one minute inside the secound round. That is almost 1.round tko in my book. you got silva at 10.0 in round one, and cain decision at 4.35..its not a huge risk betting cane inside.

**BIGDAY** · 05-22-12, 09:12 PM

Might just be taking a few prop parlays for this card.

I'll be out on boat/marina all weekend so won't be watching the fights. Will have to use phone for updates at the bars.

Sucks that it's a smaller river town that the bars don't order up the ppv. But they are fun bars. Lol Lots of live bands and Sh!t.

Best of luck with your wagers this weekend boys!!!

**dww123** · 05-22-12, 11:01 PM

Originally posted by sirchadwick1

There is very little hope for Mir. If anything... take him by sotn or kotn. Decision ain't happenin.

Agree. Mir's only chance is when he gets rocked (it's a when) JDS follows him to the ground and Mir recovers immedietly and then slaps and quick violent submission. Odds of that happening 2 fights in a row are close to 0.

**eligibletackle** · 05-23-12, 12:54 AM

I like the Cain bet straight up, even if steep. w/ another ref he could've decisioned Rothwell (to the tune of 30-25 probably). I think Cain straight up might be best value even at these odds, I'm not hedging w/ outcome ...

**fosho14** · 05-23-12, 02:00 AM

Originally posted by Rubber Guard

I disagree and was actually thinking about this last night. I like the odds for Cain by Dec. at +335. And for those who think Bigfoot can win I like +230 the fight goes the distance.

Cain hasn't exactly finished great guys. Lesnar is afraid to get hit. Nog, I love the guy but he had staph infection and no head movement. Rothwell is tough, but if I remember correct he beat him up but Ben was wall walking to his feet when the ref stopped it. If Cain gets TDs Bigfoot has a solid blackbelt and is huge. He can tie Cain up and at least defend with his BJJ. On the feet Cain isn't exactly a 1 punch KO artist.

I also think Cain will be cautious. He needs this win. And he may look to grind Bigfoot down with his wrestling.

I love the odds on the fight going 3 rounds.

I can't really argue with that, those are good points. At the end of the day it's tough to call the method, and I guess I'm confident enough in cain to pay the juice. We'll see.

**Imsmarterthanu** · 05-23-12, 03:21 AM

1103 Silva/Velasquez goes 3 round distance

+250

**Oblivian** · 05-23-12, 09:33 AM

Originally posted by Imsmarterthanu

1103 Silva/Velasquez goes 3 round distance

+250

Ya, I went with this. I think Cain is going to go back to wrestling a lot more rather than risking standing with Bigfoot. Bigfoot can take punishment and move around on the ground. I think it's roughly 50/50 that this fight goes to decision.

**TheCalculator** · 05-23-12, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by Imsmarterthanu

1103 Silva/Velasquez goes 3 round distance

+250

**Beelzebubzy** · 05-23-12, 11:43 AM

Odds out
I like Hardy, Volkmann, and Pineda

**getlucky2win** · 05-23-12, 11:56 AM

might play pineda and dollaway. but lines could improve. i prob wait til after weighins

**NunyaBidness** · 05-23-12, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Odds out
I like Hardy, Volkmann, and Pineda

I wouldn't lay the juice on Hardy.

**Vaughany** · 05-23-12, 11:59 AM

**Vaughany** · 05-23-12, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I wouldn't lay the juice on Hardy.

yeah, was hoping to get him closer to Evens

**Beelzebubzy** · 05-23-12, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I wouldn't lay the juice on Hardy.

I had it at -140 which was pretty close to what it was. By the time it gets to my book, I dont think I would have the option. I think he will have a decent size advantage and would implement the same gameplan as the Swick fight

Please note for the record: Bubzy and Nunya both posted and there was little sarcasm. Is that a first?

**Vaughany** · 05-23-12, 12:08 PM

Some might think tht suggesting Hardy is going to win was sarcasm!

**Beelzebubzy** · 05-23-12, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Some might think tht suggesting Hardy is going to win was sarcasm!

Hence why I said little.

**Vaughany** · 05-23-12, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Hence why I said little.

haha oh yeah

**Beelzebubzy** · 05-23-12, 12:15 PM

Back on topic here.

Why doesnt BFO have an app yet?
Seems like they would make more money that way.

**Beelzebubzy** · 05-23-12, 12:18 PM

Snooki is having a boy!
Congrats Nunya!

**Vaughany** · 05-23-12, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Back on topic here.

Why doesnt BFO have an app yet?
Seems like they would make more money that way.

yeah, but they only jus worked out how to make the odds fit on a page for phone use!

**NunyaBidness** · 05-23-12, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Snooki is having a boy!
Congrats Nunya!

Thanks!

Wait, what?

**Vaughany** · 05-23-12, 12:34 PM

haha gonna come out looking like Sitch

**illmatick** · 05-23-12, 12:46 PM

Liking Volkman and Hardy, Kingsbury if he keeps climbing.

**Oblivian** · 05-23-12, 01:12 PM

The Elkins line didn't jump out at anyone?

I'm going to wait on Hardy's line. I figure there is a decent chance he'll end up as an underdog. I saw where a lot of people aren't giving him much of a shot, but I'm not sure if they'll put their money where their mouth is.