UFC 146: Dos Santos vs. Mir

**Beelzebubzy** · 05-21-12, 08:45 AM

JDS TKO -280 on 5dimes

**Beelzebubzy** · 05-21-12, 08:55 AM

I hate betting props huge as I would have gone big on Mir by TKO over Nog, Schaub over Nog by TKO and those have all ended horribly.

**PunisherIND** · 05-21-12, 09:11 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

JDS TKO -280 on 5dimes

TKO -280
ITD -320

go with ITD if you think there is greater than 2.5% chance that murr taps to strikes.

**Vaughany** · 05-21-12, 09:13 AM

Mir wont tap to strikes

**Beelzebubzy** · 05-21-12, 09:17 AM

I dont think Mir will tap to strikes. My evidence supporting this claim is UFC 100

Edit: I have JDS Inside the distance in a parlay

**PunisherIND** · 05-21-12, 09:19 AM

herman/nelson and barboza/varner ITD lines were just released on 5d

herman/nelson ITD -150 (goes distance +110)
barboza/varner ITD -175 (goes distance +135)

**brokenbrain** · 05-21-12, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

its not a gift, when the fighter you bet on has crappy tdd, and have 0 ground game. Its lavar round 1, fight doesnt go the distance, wont start 3.round, struve by sub, lavar by KO...but not anyone of those guys SU in my opinion. The odds reflect the likelihood for winning by playing SU = 50/50

very agrred!

**sirchadwick1** · 05-21-12, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

herman/nelson and barboza/varner ITD lines were just released on 5d

herman/nelson ITD -150 (goes distance +110)
barboza/varner ITD -175 (goes distance +135)

Barboza/Varner is -140 ITD at 5d. I like it.

**Vaughany** · 05-21-12, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by sirchadwick1

Barboza/Varner is -140 ITD at 5d. I like it.

I took the distance at +135. Acts as a hedge for some of the Barboza parlays I have as I dont see Varner finishing

**Beelzebubzy** · 05-21-12, 10:18 AM

Barboza's leg kicks are going to kill Varner. look at what Shalarous did to him.

I might throw a small play on Barboza by decision

**DeFactoCrippler** · 05-21-12, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by brokenbrain

Struve has to keep his back off the cage. LJ seems to be at his most dangerous when his oppenents get stuck with their back to the cage. If SS can find some room, move laterally and get LJ leaning forward to throw his punches I think SS has a good chance of surving the first round or two then attempting to get the fight to the ground. If SS gets his back caught up against the cage I think the fight will play out exactly like the Roy Nelson fight.

Struve has absolutely no lateral movement, thats why he gets caught against the cage EVERY fight. He just keeps moving backwards and then seem comfortable counter punching with his back to the cage. He is one of the most immobile fighters I've ever seen, his whole "striking" game is centred around planting himself and loading up on his right leg.

I was going to bet heavy on SS beating MH - I didn't think MH had the reach to hit SS,

Why not? Fighters have claimed to have trouble finding Struve's chin because of his height, but Lavar has only a 1 inch reach disadvantage to Struve and better footwork, handspeed ect.

**DeFactoCrippler** · 05-21-12, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by Libert1ne

Struve is a terrible fighter man.

He's so tall and rangey but he doesn't use his range well at all. He never jabs.

Funny, cause this was what Florian or whatever the talking head was during the Herman/Struve fight. What they didn't mention was for the jab to be effective it has to be quick and be accompanied by good footwork. Struve tried to plod forward and throw the jab against Herman and it was atrocious, he got countered atleast 3 times in that 2nd round. If he throws that shit POS jab against Lavar he will get KTFO, lol.

**Beelzebubzy** · 05-21-12, 11:23 AM

Herb Dean will ref Mir vs Dos Santos
and will make 1200 for the event

**bjpenn85** · 05-21-12, 11:56 AM

wow. that isnt to much, for the best ref in the world.

**brokenbrain** · 05-21-12, 01:32 PM

Why not? Fighters have claimed to have trouble finding Struve's chin because of his height, but Lavar has only a 1 inch reach disadvantage to Struve and better footwork, handspeed ect.[/QUOTE]

Dude, I said MH (Mark Hunt) wouldn't be able to hit Struve...that's why I liked Struve against MH. I think LJ has a great chance of hitting his chin...just not putting money on it because of SS sub ability.

**Beelzebubzy** · 05-21-12, 01:40 PM

anyone backing PeeWee here?
Survives round 1, he could outpoint roy

**fosho14** · 05-21-12, 02:48 PM

who's playing JDS ITD? Everyone on this forum lol? Gonna be one of the larger wagers I've place in a long time. Anyone not making this play?

**fosho14** · 05-21-12, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

anyone backing PeeWee here?
Survives round 1, he could outpoint roy

idk he looked awful in his last fight, but big country has looked far from good as well. Both fighters are so sloppy and all the heavies hit hard so who knows. But since I see this as a toss up than ya maybe worth a small play on peewee since this fight is 50/50 and roy shouldn't be more than -200 like he is.

**Vaughany** · 05-21-12, 02:58 PM

ha looks like it...could be mass burial!

**omalley21** · 05-21-12, 03:30 PM

All the damage big country has taken will eventually catch up to him. Someone will ko him in the next few fights.

**PunisherIND** · 05-21-12, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by fosho14

But since I see this as a toss up if you like taking excessive risk than ya maybe worth a small play on peewee since this fight is 50/50 and roy shouldn't be more than -200 like he is.

if you think the fight is 50/50 you should load up on peewee at +180

**Vitooch** · 05-21-12, 03:40 PM

Think this fight is closer to like 60/40

**Vitooch** · 05-21-12, 03:41 PM

**getlucky2win** · 05-21-12, 03:43 PM

jds/mir similar 2 johnson/struve. ko or submission. very small chance of dec.

**Imsmarterthanu** · 05-21-12, 03:48 PM

All the winners right here

5/26/2012 11:00 PM UFC Fighting 1002 Junior Dos Santos* -550 vs Frank Mir - KO
5/26/2012 11:00 PM UFC Fighting 1202 Roy Nelson* -220 vs Dave Herman - TKO
5/26/2012 10:30 PM UFC Fighting 1301 Shane del Rosario* +135 vs Stipe Miocic - Submission
5/26/2012 9:00 PM UFC Fighting 1602 Edson Barboza* -500 vs Jamie Varner - TKO/Decision 40/60

Up in the air

5/26/2012 11:30 PM UFC Fighting 1102 Cain Velasquez* -380 vs Antonio Silva - Decision 60/40
5/26/2012 10:00 PM UFC Fighting 1402 Stefan Struve* -105 vs Lavar Johnson - Submission 60/40

**Vaughany** · 05-21-12, 03:54 PM

"Going to be a completely different Dan Hardy...I have options now" - Hardy on MMAHour

**Beelzebubzy** · 05-21-12, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

"Going to be a completely different Dan Hardy...I have options now" - Hardy on MMAHour

lets see what the odds say then I might have options to bet on him

**getlucky2win** · 05-21-12, 04:04 PM

the option of leaving the ufc for bellator

**Vaughany** · 05-21-12, 05:14 PM

haha

**Oblivian** · 05-22-12, 06:10 AM

I'm probably one of the very few here not playing JDS in any way. In general, I try to stay away from very heavy favorites if they are not the type to completely control the fight (generally with wrestling) or if they are going against someone with finishing ability. I think the HW division is bound to have a bit more variance due to their ability to KO someone and Mir can throw in a wrench with his subs.

With that said, I do think it's pretty damn likely that JDS gets the KO and I don't necessarily think it's a bad bet, but I just can't bring myself to pull the trigger on it. I'm going to wait until Mir's line improves and throw a flyer on him inside the distance.

**TheCalculator** · 05-22-12, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by Oblivian

I'm probably one of the very few here not playing JDS in any way. In general, I try to stay away from very heavy favorites if they are not the type to completely control the fight (generally with wrestling) or if they are going against someone with finishing ability. I think the HW division is bound to have a bit more variance due to their ability to KO someone and Mir can throw in a wrench with his subs.

AMEN Oblivian. I got "rocked" a few of my bets by some heavy weight KOs. KOs are by far the biggest "X factor" in wagering. I've gone "The Vaughany Road" - and only play guys -200 or better unless there's VERY LITTLE hope from the other guy.

**sirchadwick1** · 05-22-12, 02:40 PM

There is very little hope for Mir. If anything... take him by sotn or kotn. Decision ain't happenin.

**Beelzebubzy** · 05-22-12, 03:10 PM

With the light heavyweight division currently ruled by the very tall phenom UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones, Kingsbury has admittedly looked at dropping down to the middleweight division.
“I wouldn’t rule out a jump to 185″, Kingsbury stated. “I was just talking to Joe Rogan a while back about that. Down the road just looking at a guy like Jon Jones who has so much reach on everyone in the division. Maybe it would be worth it to drop to have that kind of reach advantage at 185. Luke Rockhold is my teammate and he’s a big middleweight. We walk around about 210-215 anf that’s a challenge sometimes, too. If I became a vegan like my teammate Fitch maybe I could get down to 185. It’s definitely something I thought about, and definitely a possibility”.

**Imsmarterthanu** · 05-22-12, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by DeFactoCrippler

Funny, cause this was what Florian or whatever the talking head was during the Herman/Struve fight. What they didn't mention was for the jab to be effective it has to be quick and be accompanied by good footwork. Struve tried to plod forward and throw the jab against Herman and it was atrocious, he got countered atleast 3 times in that 2nd round. If he throws that shit POS jab against Lavar he will get KTFO, lol.

Agreed What struve does wrong all the time is think that because he's so tall and rangy he can just get away with throwing weak jabs and half assed knees and this is what costs him. He needs better footwork and he needs a better fight IQ the guy just doesn't think things out when he fights he always does something, this is what I noticed about him, he ALWAYS does something really fukn stupid. The thing is what stupid thing is he going to do against lavar and will he get away with it.

**DeFactoCrippler** · 05-22-12, 04:20 PM

Originally posted by Imsmarterthanu

Agreed What struve does wrong all the time is think that because he's so tall and rangy he can just get away with throwing weak jabs and half assed knees and this is what costs him. He needs better footwork and he needs a better fight IQ the guy just doesn't think things out when he fights he always does something, this is what I noticed about him, he ALWAYS does something really fukn stupid. The thing is what stupid thing is he going to do against lavar and will he get away with it.

I remember from a really old Struve interview he said he was orginally a kickboxer but developed his BJJ (especially off his back) cause when people felt the power of his leg kicks they would immediately try to take him down.

A lot of the shit Struve tries is to bait the guy into taking him down, cause he has swept pretty much everyone who took him down and it led to him winning the fight most times. Only guy who did any real damage while in his guard was Morecraft.

Lavars TDD is horrid but I still see struve having trouble getting it to the ground. Hes too tall to shoot for a double, all his takedowns have come from trips, but the guys seemed genuinely surprised by them, where Lavar will be looking for it. I'm not sure Lavar will be able to stop it still.

Just waiting for 5dimes to release the props. They are really holding their nuts on this one.