UFC 146: Dos Santos vs. Mir

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  • Vaughany
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 03-07-10
    • 45563

    #176
    yeee.. http://mmajunkie.com/news/28754/mark...ar-johnson.mma

    Ah well...still same situation... Lavar by TKO/KO and Struve by submission
    Comment
    • Jesus Christ
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 05-25-11
      • 935

      #177
      Yea it's funny cause it doesn't really change a lot.
      Comment
      • Vaughany
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 03-07-10
        • 45563

        #178
        I guess Lavar will be even easier to sub if Struve does get it to the ground, but Lavar I think is actually slightly more dangerous standing for Struve as he'll be less technical but more aggressive than Hunt and push forward more which doesnt bode well for Struve who backs up in straight lines and leaves his chin out there. At least against Hunt the chances of moving around and picking him apart were slightly higher as Hunt is more flatfooted and less athletic than Lavar, and bides his time a bit more (more relaxed in there giving Struve more time to think).
        Comment
        • Vaughany
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 03-07-10
          • 45563

          #179
          Lavar Johnson Talks Stefan Struve: 'You Just Have to Put Him to Sleep'



          By Ben Fowlkes - Senior Writer
          Follow @MMAFighting on Twitter, and LikeMMA Fighting on Facebook.
          May 17, 2012 - Like a lot of fighters, Lavar Johnson usually likes to take a little time to celebrate a win. Nothing major. Just good, decadent food, maybe some adult beverages, and a few days away from the gym to relax and unwind. But after his TKO win over Pat Barry at the UFC on FOX 3 earlier this month, he didn’t celebrate in the typical way. When the UFC called him on Wednesday to ask how he felt about stepping in for an injured Mark Hunt and facingStefan Struve at UFC 146 next Saturday night, that decision suddenly seemed like a great one.

          "Usually I’ll go barbeque, drink some beer and celebrate, but I didn’t even do that this time," Johnson told MMA Fighting. "I’m at a high level right now and I knew I needed to stay on my game. That’s what I’m doing. I’m jumping right back in there and I’m ready to go."
          With Hunt sidelined by a knee injury, Johnson now gets a chance to rack up two UFC victories in one month. All he has to do is beat a 6’11" Dutch heavyweight on a week and a half’s notice. It’s the kind of offer that few could have blamed him for turning down, but Johnson described it as an easy decision to take the fight.

          "This is what I get paid to do," he said. "This is what we all do. We train to fight. If I didn’t think I could beat Stefan Struve or anybody else then I wouldn’t be fighting in the UFC period. I would find a different profession. I’ve got confidence in myself and I think I match up with him good."

          At the same time, even Johnson admits to a little initial consternation at the thought of fighting an opponent who’s nearly seven feet tall. There’s almost no time to find a sparring partner who can mimic his height and reach, and even if there were time there still aren’t too many seven-footers hanging out in most fight gyms.

          But Johnson said he’s "not really worried" about Struve’s reach (84 inches -- Johnson has it memorized already) or his height, because, as he explained, "I don’t think he really uses his reach, his height. He doesn’t utilize all that. I think I’m faster than him and I hit harder than him, and I’m going to get to him first."

          If he does, his bank account will thank him. Johnson has matching Knockout of the Night bonuses from his only two UFC fights so far, and though he’s saving most of the money, he did permit himself the purchase of a new car -- a Chevy Silverado Z71, he said, "four-door, lifted, the whole nine."

          At the same time, stepping in on such short notice against an experienced fighter like Struve is far from easy money. While Johnson said he’s injury free after the Barry fight, he’s watched enough of Struve’s fights to know he has a tough night of work ahead of him.

          "You just have to put him to sleep," Johnson said. "That’s the only way to beat him. He’s not going to quit, so I have to hit him on the chin and hit him a bunch of times and put him out."

          Comment
          • brooks85
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-05-09
            • 44709

            #180
            **** me, was working with hunt/struve not going the distance for a couple weeks now
            Comment
            • bjpenn85
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 02-17-11
              • 5059

              #181
              that opportunity is right around the corner again dude.
              Comment
              • brooks85
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 01-05-09
                • 44709

                #182
                does me no good, cancelled event is just taking up space now

                plus line is going to open nothing like the -355 i had
                Comment
                • Vaughany
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 03-07-10
                  • 45563

                  #183
                  Originally posted by brooks85
                  does me no good, cancelled event is just taking up space now

                  plus line is going to open nothing like the -355 i had
                  yeah its annoying as hell! Didnt have this one in any parlays but had JDS/Overeem not going distance in about 5 pending parlays.
                  Comment
                  • GigaOuts
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 01-02-12
                    • 527

                    #184
                    What a roller-coaster ride. Stefan Struve is my next lock pick and I plan to bet around $2000 but got suck into the vortex.
                    $550 @ -110 (good deal, I cap Struve -160)
                    $275 @ -110
                    $1000 @ -105 (This will be the best odd I see for sure)
                    $2000 @ +100 (what a f*cking awesome deal, too bad I couldn't bet more)
                    Stefan Struve @ +110 - u f*cking kidding me.
                    Stefan Struve @ +119 errrr f*ck it!! another $2000.

                    $550+$275+$1000+$2000+$2000=$5825 ooooooops, what have I got myself into?
                    Kinda relieve the fight is cancel and disappoint at the same time because this is my next lock pick. At least I got a free lesson, I hope.
                    Comment
                    • Wanna Bet On It?
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-17-11
                      • 1032

                      #185
                      Originally posted by brooks85
                      does me no good, cancelled event is just taking up space now

                      plus line is going to open nothing like the -355 i had
                      Had it in a juicy parlay with Mir/JDS ITD and Vitor/Wand ITD at +133. Sucks balls...
                      Comment
                      • brooks85
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 01-05-09
                        • 44709

                        #186
                        Originally posted by Vaughany
                        yeah its annoying as hell! Didnt have this one in any parlays but had JDS/Overeem not going distance in about 5 pending parlays.
                        yeah that definitely had to be a downer. Hasn't happened to me in awhile, forgot how annoying that is.
                        Comment
                        • brokenbrain
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 05-13-12
                          • 138

                          #187


                          "You just have to put him to sleep," Johnson said. "That’s the only way to beat him. He’s not going to quit, so I have to hit him on the chin and hit him a bunch of times and put him out."

                          [/QUOTE]

                          Struve has to keep his back off the cage. LJ seems to be at his most dangerous when his oppenents get stuck with their back to the cage. If SS can find some room, move laterally and get LJ leaning forward to throw his punches I think SS has a good chance of surving the first round or two then attempting to get the fight to the ground. If SS gets his back caught up against the cage I think the fight will play out exactly like the Roy Nelson fight.
                          I was going to bet heavy on SS beating MH - I didn't think MH had the reach to hit SS, and was hoping SS learned a thing or two from the Travis Browne fight/KO. I saw it playing out like SS v PeeWee and PBarry fights. I think LJ is too big and too powerful, he only has to hit SS once and he will break him in half, while SS just has to get LJ to the ground and can sub him any number of ways. This is now a no play for me.
                          I do like V's LJ by TKO/KO, SS by sub play...but not sure if I'll follow
                          Comment
                          • gabe
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 09-12-11
                            • 7405

                            #188
                            Lavar Johnson by KO within 1.5 rounds

                            Really hoping to get a good dog line on Lavar...
                            Comment
                            • Crassus
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-08-12
                              • 1538

                              #189
                              Originally posted by gabe
                              Lavar Johnson by KO within 1.5 rounds

                              Really hoping to get a good dog line on Lavar...
                              Struve by submission within 1 round.
                              Comment
                              • gabe
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 09-12-11
                                • 7405

                                #190
                                Originally posted by Crassus
                                Struve by submission within 1 round.
                                Not happening! Lavar would be easier to submit than Hunt, but his chances of scoring a knockout are much greater. I am really hoping to get a +200 type of line.
                                Comment
                                • Vaughany
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 03-07-10
                                  • 45563

                                  #191


                                  Comment
                                  • THE_LOCKSMITH
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 08-25-08
                                    • 7237

                                    #192
                                    all heavyweight PPV card, this has to be a first

                                    MAIN CARD (pay-per-view)
                                    • Champ Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir (for heavyweight title)
                                    • Antonio Silva vs. Cain Velasquez
                                    • Dave Herman vs. Roy Nelson
                                    • Shane Del Rosario vs. Stipe Miocic
                                    • Lavar Johnson vs. Stefan Struve


                                    PRELIMINARY CARD (FX)
                                    • Diego Brandao vs. Darren Elkins
                                    • Edson Barboza vs. Jamie Varner
                                    • C.B. Dollaway vs. Jason "Mayhem" Miller
                                    • Dan Hardy vs. Duane "Bang" Ludwig


                                    PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)
                                    • Paul Sass vs. Jacob Volkmann
                                    • Kyle Kingsbury vs. Glover Teixeira
                                    • Mike Brown vs. Daniel Pineda
                                    Comment
                                    • PunisherIND
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-24-11
                                      • 4980

                                      #193
                                      anyone know why 5dimes would pull the prop lines for cain-big foot?
                                      Comment
                                      • bjpenn85
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 02-17-11
                                        • 5059

                                        #194
                                        it seems like the first prop lines were taken down. pretty sure i saw cain @ 1.54 inside distance etc, but all lines are currently removed now.
                                        Comment
                                        • Libert1ne
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 02-15-12
                                          • 253

                                          #195
                                          I just made a 20 unit play parlaying JDS by KO and Edson Barboza @ -147

                                          Good bet? Bad bet?
                                          Comment
                                          • Libert1ne
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 02-15-12
                                            • 253

                                            #196
                                            JDS by KO is -250 at this site.
                                            Comment
                                            • eligibletackle
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 12-20-11
                                              • 149

                                              #197
                                              I can go through w/ the JDS prop - Mir doesn't like getting punch and has a phenomenal history of getting brutalized by ppl w/ thunderfists. Just love JDS here.

                                              If I'm going to parlay I think Cain is up there. I'm not the parlay type but would choose him over Barboza if given the option
                                              Comment
                                              • Libert1ne
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 02-15-12
                                                • 253

                                                #198
                                                I'm actually more confident that Barboza beats Varner than Cain beats Bigfoot hahaha.
                                                Comment
                                                • Imsmarterthanu
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 05-02-12
                                                  • 1878

                                                  #199
                                                  Originally posted by Libert1ne
                                                  I'm actually more confident that Barboza beats Varner than Cain beats Bigfoot hahaha.
                                                  What's your point

                                                  Varner sucks he's one dimensional Bigfoot is a giant with great striking and bjj
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Libert1ne
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 02-15-12
                                                    • 253

                                                    #200
                                                    I was replying to the gentlefellow above me you moron. Go grief another board.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Vitooch
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 09-26-11
                                                      • 3470

                                                      #201
                                                      Originally posted by Imsmarterthanu
                                                      What's your point

                                                      Varner sucks he's one dimensional Bigfoot is a giant with great striking and bjj
                                                      Great striking????
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Vitooch
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 09-26-11
                                                        • 3470

                                                        #202
                                                        Originally posted by Libert1ne
                                                        I just made a 20 unit play parlaying JDS by KO and Edson Barboza @ -147

                                                        Good bet? Bad bet?
                                                        Sounds goood to me. Being the paranoid capper I am, I parlayed Edson with JDS straight up and added "Boston does not win Eastern Conference Finals" at like -350 (Not sure if you're a basketball fan).
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Vaughany
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 03-07-10
                                                          • 45563

                                                          #203
                                                          Originally posted by Libert1ne
                                                          I'm actually more confident that Barboza beats Varner than Cain beats Bigfoot hahaha.
                                                          Agreed
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Vaughany
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 03-07-10
                                                            • 45563

                                                            #204


                                                            From +200 underdog against Beltran, to +175 underdog against Barry, to -125 favourite over Struve!
                                                            Last edited by Vaughany; 05-21-12, 03:00 AM.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Grabaka
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 02-19-11
                                                              • 3216

                                                              #205
                                                              Im leaning a little on Johnson but i guess this a prop fight. Cant pull the trigger for a straight play.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Libert1ne
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 02-15-12
                                                                • 253

                                                                #206
                                                                Struve is a terrible fighter man.

                                                                He's so tall and rangey but he doesn't use his range well at all. He never jabs. He has a low fight IQ (this has been improving recently), and gets sucked into brawls way too often. Johnson won't stand in front of Struve and get tired like Herman did, he'll blast him in the first round.

                                                                Lavar straight up @ -125 is a gift imo.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • bjpenn85
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 02-17-11
                                                                  • 5059

                                                                  #207
                                                                  its not a gift, when the fighter you bet on has crappy tdd, and have 0 ground game. Its lavar round 1, fight doesnt go the distance, wont start 3.round, struve by sub, lavar by KO...but not anyone of those guys SU in my opinion. The odds reflect the likelihood for winning by playing SU = 50/50
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Oblivian
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 01-27-12
                                                                    • 163

                                                                    #208
                                                                    I definitely can't bet Lavar or Struve straight up here at close to even odds. Struve will definitely submit him quickly if it hits the ground. The problem is that I don't know if Struve can get him down quick enough. Another factor is that Johnson's big punches have typically been uppercuts. That's going to be tough against a guy like Struve.

                                                                    This is one of those events where I see a lot of prop plays making sense. JDS/Mir shouldn't see the cards and Struve/Johnson shouldn't see the cards for sure. I'm not touching Cain vs. Bigfoot straight or Miocic vs Del Rosario straight, but I think both can hit decision far more likely than odds suggest.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Mr.Kitty
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-10-09
                                                                      • 1880

                                                                      #209
                                                                      Looks like Struve is getting smarter, at least in theory. Seems like he acknowledge Lavars KO power and his poor takedown defense and will be looking to take him down and submitt him.

                                                                      "As it turned out, Lavar Johnson is every bit as exciting for me as Hunt was. Credit to him for stepping up to the plate. All in all, Lavar is a big, strong guy who likes to stand and punch, and he's also far easier to take down than Hunt. I truly believe Mark has better takedown defense than Lavar, and that makes it a fun fight for me.

                                                                      After learning who my new opponent would be, I did a little bit of research, but already knew plenty about him. Lavar fought two weeks ago against my friend, Pat Barry, and that was a fight I have now watched a couple of times. I also saw Johnson's fight with Joey Beltran and a few of his Strikeforce fights from the last couple of years.

                                                                      The next day I went to train with my BJJ coach and gather his thoughts on the match-up. He is the guy who tells me what to go for and what not to go for on the ground, and we discussed this fight with Johnson at length on Friday."


                                                                      Stefan Struve talks about how he's happy that Lavar Johnson stepped up and replaced an injured Mark Hunt at UFC 146. Struve believes Johnson will be easier to take down than Hunt.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Vaughany
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 03-07-10
                                                                        • 45563

                                                                        #210
                                                                        Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                                        its not a gift, when the fighter you bet on has crappy tdd, and have 0 ground game. Its lavar round 1, fight doesnt go the distance, wont start 3.round, struve by sub, lavar by KO...but not anyone of those guys SU in my opinion. The odds reflect the likelihood for winning by playing SU = 50/50
                                                                        Comment
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