UFC 146: Dos Santos vs. Mir

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Apparently your account doesn't accept SBR point transfers Oblivian. Wierd. Hit me up if you get it figured out...

Cheers

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Man, I really like Stipe Miocic in this fight but friends don't let friends bet on fighters that train part-time. I think I'll only play Stipe small (1.5U).

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/5/23/3038183/ufcs-stipe-miocic-plans-to-continue-firefighting-for-duration-of-ufc

[Oblivian]

Apparently your account doesn't accept SBR point transfers Oblivian. Wierd. Hit me up if you get it figured out...

Cheers

I don't know how the internet works. Good thing I avoided making funnies for the early line on Struve/Johnson doesn't go the distance. That moved quickly.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Apparently your account doesn't accept SBR point transfers Oblivian. Wierd. Hit me up if you get it figured out...

Cheers

I was wondering how this works too... I've tried to give points but it won't let me.

And every day my points go up, but I don't know where I get them from / who gives them to me.

And what do they even mean, do you get something / secret prize if you reach a specific amount lol? I've always ignored them but I see some people take it seriously so I'm curious now...

[MMAbetMASTA]

Man, I really like Stipe Miocic in this fight but friends don't let friends bet on fighters that train part-time. I think I'll only play Stipe small (1.5U).

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/5/23...uration-of-ufc

I haven't made any play, but I honsetly like SDR man... I think he's better than stippe everywhere outside of wrestling. I'm not impressed at all by stipe, he doesn't seem to be especially good in any one area and has a lot of hype that I just don't get. I have yet to research this fight in detail, but from what I have looked at I think there is value on sdr at dog odds... But, stippe is not at a bad price and if you like him I guess its not the worst odds. I'm gonna due more research and perhaps I'll think differently, but as of right now I'm liking sdr. I didn't even know he was a part time fighter, but that makes me like sdr even more.

[Rubber Guard]

I haven't made any play, but I honsetly like SDR man... I think he's better than stippe everywhere outside of wrestling. I'm not impressed at all by stipe, he doesn't seem to be especially good in any one area and has a lot of hype that I just don't get. I have yet to research this fight in detail, but from what I have looked at I think there is value on sdr at dog odds... But, stippe is not at a bad price and if you like him I guess its not the worst odds. I'm gonna due more research and perhaps I'll think differently, but as of right now I'm liking sdr. I didn't even know he was a part time fighter, but that makes me like sdr even more.

I think Stipe has better hands. I mean SDR may have better striking overall because he has many tools. But as far as hands go I think Stipe is better. And he has more power in them.

Stipe doesn't have good defensive standup skills. But that is where his wrestling can come into play. He can dictate where the fight is...or at least I think he can.

Either way it is a tough fight to call. We haven't seen SDR vs. UFC guys. And Stipe just had an iffy performance although he KO'd the guy in the 1st or 2nd. So who knows really how they stack up. All I do think I know is that Stipe has better power and has the wrestling advantage.

[TheCalculator]

I think the best bet is the "fight goes the distance". Too many unknowns for me: the health of SDR being the biggest. Is he 100%? Is he 80%? If he's 100% -- he can probably beat Miocic. If he's 80% -- he'll probably lose. Best to be played LIVE if possible.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

I think Stipe has better hands. I mean SDR may have better striking overall because he has many tools. But as far as hands go I think Stipe is better. And he has more power in them.

Stipe doesn't have good defensive standup skills. But that is where his wrestling can come into play. He can dictate where the fight is...or at least I think he can.

Either way it is a tough fight to call. We haven't seen SDR vs. UFC guys. And Stipe just had an iffy performance although he KO'd the guy in the 1st or 2nd. So who knows really how they stack up. All I do think I know is that Stipe has better power and has the wrestling advantage.

I agree with everything you said stylistically.

WRT Stipe's last fight, he finished De Fries in about 45 seconds (not a round or two). That fight makes so many people misread Stipe. He wasn't afraid of De Fries' stand up at all so he opened up his hands, took a brief combo which did NOT hurt/rock him whatsoever and then countered with a straight punch that absolutely blasted De Fries before pounding him out.

Anyone who thinks Stipe has questionable striking defense or chin should watch the Beltran fight for reassurance. Then they should watch SDR's first SF fight vs Brandon Cash and tell what they think. SDR has also been TKOed in kickboxing.

Anyone who takes Kenny Florian's commentary seriously deserves to lose money.

Stipe by eaty, sleepy, part-time trainy

[DeFactoCrippler]

Liking Volkman and Hardy, Kingsbury if he keeps climbing.

Not a lot of respect for Kingsbu from the odds maker. I think the line is about right, but thought Kingsbu would get more respect cause he is a UFC darling.

[DeFactoCrippler]

I had my eye on glover and the -200 range didn't seem too steep to me and was a little appealing (I knew he'd be a favorite but not being a known fighter I was hoping he'd be closer to evens...)

No shit, me too. The odds maker is officially not a UFC nuthugger.

[Vitooch]

Glover has been a pretty hyped prospect for a while now. Kingsbury, on the other hand, seems to be on his way out. Lots of holes in his game that Glover can expose

[DeFactoCrippler]

yeah but he said on Helwani's show the other day tht he thinks he'll get cut if he loses so doesnt see the point in changing his style (from a focus on winning to entertaining)

Volkmann is just being an attention whore cause thats what fighters need to do when they don't put out "exciting" performances. The UFC and Joe Silva must love this guy cause they are giving him a nice stylisitic matchup AGAIN.

TDD + Striking = Goodnight Volkmann. The UFC could easily make this happen, but hey give him Sass so they can roll around on the ground so Volkmanns dork fanbase can fap.

His striking against Mckee was ******* god awful, some of the most awkward shit I've seen in my life. All he did was throw arm punches getting fukking countered by Mckee. His striking ONLY exist to distract his opponent and set up a takedown.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Glover has been a pretty hyped prospect for a while now. Kingsbury, on the other hand, seems to be on his way out. Lots of holes in his game that Glover can expose

I agree completely, but if you listen to what the UFC says Kingsbu is some kinda greek god.

Funny what these guys do to try and save their job when their on their way out. To get his job, Kingsbu did all kinds of shit in the TUF house. Jerking off on people food and shit, wtf is wrong with this guy.

Leading up to the Bonnar fight he has tweeting pics of his bare ass and talking about his dick. After the loss he made all kinds of gay tweets, "joke" pics of him doing homo erotic shit ect. Guys like Kingsbu and GSP cater to a certain subset of the MMA fanbase.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Rewatching the Kampmann fight, Volkmann's striking was much better than I had expected it to be.

[GunShard]

I noticed that a -500 or greater favorite never lost in MMA, Dos Santos has this value. Not sure when this trendwill break in the future.

[Vaughany]

I noticed that a -500 or greater favorite never lost in MMA, Dos Santos has this value. Not sure when this trendwill break in the future.

lol Pretty sure BJ Penn was greater than -500 when he lost to Edgar first time round. GSP vs Serra, Tim Sylvia vs Abe Wagner and sure there are plenty more. Hell even Hominick was like -600 a few weeks ago

[Wanna Bet On It?]

lol Pretty sure BJ Penn was greater than -500 when he lost to Edgar first time round. GSP vs Serra, Tim Sylvia vs Abe Wagner and sure there are plenty more. Hell even Hominick was like -600 a few weeks ago

Rolles Gracie is a lock brah. Nevermind the -1500 line on some sites... No way this Mexecutioner guy stands a chance.

[FightFightFight]

Had Marx at +525 few weeks ago.

[Vaughany]

Rolles Gracie is a lock brah. Nevermind the -1500 line on some sites... No way this Mexecutioner guy stands a chance.

haha yeah didnt even think about Konrad!

[Digo]

JDS by tko/ko (-280) is the best that i got. I'd love to get it at (-250) or better...
Together with Barnett vs Cormier and Jones by sub or tko against Henderson is the most predictable result that i can remember this year.

[NunyaBidness]

I noticed that a -500 or greater favorite never lost in MMA, Dos Santos has this value. Not sure when this trendwill break in the future.

If that were true (and it's not) then there would not be any -500 favorites. Don't you think the quants who run elaborate models would think to look into it?

[Vaughany]

Dont confuse the poor soul any more!

[MMAbetMASTA]

I think Stipe has better hands. I mean SDR may have better striking overall because he has many tools. But as far as hands go I think Stipe is better. And he has more power in them.

Stipe doesn't have good defensive standup skills. But that is where his wrestling can come into play. He can dictate where the fight is...or at least I think he can.

Either way it is a tough fight to call. We haven't seen SDR vs. UFC guys. And Stipe just had an iffy performance although he KO'd the guy in the 1st or 2nd. So who knows really how they stack up. All I do think I know is that Stipe has better power and has the wrestling advantage.

Yea def a tough fight to call, but at dog odds I think there is some value with SDR.

Stippe might have better hands because of his GG background, but shane is the first amercan WBC champion which says a lot about his overall striking acumen - like you said more tools and being the first US WBC champion is a pretty big accomplishment for a striker. Furthermore, he's the more well rounded grapplers imo... even though it was against a can, I don't think I've ever seen nor heard of an omoplata at hw, that is impressive no matter how you look at it. He seems to have some nice natural grappling ability.

And while I agree that stippe has the wrestling won, I am not really impressed from what I've seen.

Against a guy who has litle ground game in beltran he couldn't even keep him down. He was stuffed a couple times on tds and the few times he did get joey down, beltran got back to his feet pretty easy, save for the last part of round 3. And that fight overall wasn't impressive for either man, both beltran and stippe looked pretty lackluster in that and if either of them fought sdr looking like that I think they'd get tooled.

SDR on the other hand, while against mediocre c level comp for the most part, has looked pretty damn good and very well rounded both on the feet and on the ground. But yes, I do realize its easy to look good against arguable cans... Stippe will by far be the best opponent he's faced, and vice versa, so we could see either guy get exposed. However I think sdr will outsrike stippe on the feet and if stippe does get it down I think sdr will get up when he wants, or we could really see how stippe's jitz is and that is a complete unknown which would scare me if i'm a stippe backer... therefore stipe could get subbed, reversed into bottom position, etc... Outside of the back injury this fight favors sdr imo as he is more well rounded and has more ways to win. But overall, yes, its a tough fight to call against guys who both have 'unknowns' and question marks around them...

Should be a fun mach up, looking forward to it!!

[MMAbetMASTA]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]42500[/ATTACH]

haha.... the best character in that movie... "fuckkk em, they think they're gonna ruin my party... we're having a good time here, aren't we?"

But yea I was thinking the sam thing, been a while since I've seen that fight, but I remember kapman rocking volkman bad on the feet and then sinking that guillotine... I've seen nothing impressive from volkman's striking. However, I haven't seen any striking at all from sass so who knows.

Volkman will probably grind it out, but at that juice I can't take him, sass seems too tricky with his jitz both off his back and on top, so in a 3 round ground battle I can't rule out a possibility of sass getting the upper hand on the ground and at -180 odds that ain't worth it for a volkman...

[NunyaBidness]

Not sure how useful it is to cap fights from memory.

Volkmann lands shots on Kampmann at 4:40 and 4:30, hits him with a two or three shot combo from inside at 4:19 while Kampmann hits two as well. Volkmann ties up and lands a knee in the clinch around 4:02, then he comes forward and lands 4 hard unanswered shots to kampmann's face at 3:54, hits him again, then Kampmann drops him with a well-timed power shot.

They clinch up and Volkmann recovers.

At 2:40 Volkmann rushes in and lands another big combo on Kampmann, another Kampmann power shot puts Volkmann down.

Much better result from Volkmann than I recalled. Saying his striking is better than I expected is not the same as saying it is good. I think it'll be servicable if he can keep Sass off of him.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Not sure how useful it is to cap fights from memory.

Volkmann lands shots on Kampmann at 4:40 and 4:30, hits him with a two or three shot combo from inside at 4:19 while Kampmann hits two as well. Volkmann ties up and lands a knee in the clinch around 4:02, then he comes forward and lands 4 hard unanswered shots to kampmann's face at 3:54, hits him again, then Kampmann drops him with a well-timed power shot.

They clinch up and Volkmann recovers.

At 2:40 Volkmann rushes in and lands another big combo on Kampmann, another Kampmann power shot puts Volkmann down.

Much better result from Volkmann than I recalled. Saying his striking is better than I expected is not the same as saying it is good. I think it'll be servicable if he can keep Sass off of him.

Its very useful... I don't think anyone here can say they don't rely heavily on memory when making an analysis. Its worked out very nicely for me thus far.

so you're saying volkman landed some shots and then got dropped and ate another devestating strike before getting subbed?

Yea that's what I'm saying too...

Like I said I've seen nothing from sass on the feet so I really can't make judgment on that. I just know that I haven't really seen volkman impress on the feet in any match. He always talks about his stand up game and how its a good secret (he claims he was gonna showcase it against escudero but instead wrestle ****** that one and what little exchanges did happen on the feet were even), but has yet to really spend time on the feet in any match he's won. However, considering I personally haven't seen any real prolonged stand up from sass, and from what I've read its pretty bad, then it would not surprise me to see volkman win the stand up... Yet its a pretty big unkown imo and a lot to risk paying 2 to 1 favorite juice.

But if there is ever a fight for volkman to try out his stand up skills then this is the one I guess, so who knows perhaps christmas will look like a stud standing up in this one! Like you said, and I agree, volkman's striking will prob be servicivble enough to win a prolonged standing match against sass who from what I'm gathering has no stand up.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Not sure how useful it is to cap fights from memory.

Volkmann lands shots on Kampmann at 4:40 and 4:30, hits him with a two or three shot combo from inside at 4:19 while Kampmann hits two as well. Volkmann ties up and lands a knee in the clinch around 4:02, then he comes forward and lands 4 hard unanswered shots to kampmann's face at 3:54, hits him again, then Kampmann drops him with a well-timed power shot.

They clinch up and Volkmann recovers.

At 2:40 Volkmann rushes in and lands another big combo on Kampmann, another Kampmann power shot puts Volkmann down.

Much better result from Volkmann than I recalled. Saying his striking is better than I expected is not the same as saying it is good. I think it'll be servicable if he can keep Sass off of him.

I think this is the flaw in simply watching a fight and listening to the commentary without actual knowledge of the fight game. You have to remember two things:

1. The commentators first job is to make the fight EXCITING.

2. Their other job is to make the fighters look as good as possible. They are not going to trash a fighter no matter how retarded they look, all it does is reflect badly on everyone.

In that fight Volkmann put on one of the absolute worst "striking" performances ever in the UFC, not an exaggeration. It really should be obvious, but I can see how someone could not realize this if they just listened to the announcers.

then he comes forward and lands 4 hard unanswered shots to kampmann's face at 3:54, hits him again, then Kampmann drops him with a well-timed power shot."

When Volkmann came forward he looked like he had never thrown a punch before, he was just flailing his arms. You could clearly see he was off balance and there was nothing on those shots. Kampmann simply allowed him to do that in order to land the big counter.

At 2:40 Volkmann rushes in and lands another big combo on Kampmann, another Kampmann power shot puts Volkmann down.

You seem to think that Volkmann "rushing in" was effective, saying he landed "big combos". He was rushing in head first with his chin up and his hands down during the ENTIRE combo, and was off balance on top of that. There was a reason Volkmann kissed canvas each time he "rushed in", not to mention looking like a literal retard.

Much better result from Volkmann than I recalled. Saying his striking is better than I expected is not the same as saying it is good. I think it'll be servicable if he can keep Sass off of him

Shit, I don't know what you "recalled" but in that fight Volkmann not only displayed some of the most rudimentary striking skills but some really low fight IQ because he somehow thought him winging punches would be effective and he was lured into thinking they were, only to get countered CLEAN numerous times.

The only "hard" punch Volkmann actually scored was a counter when Kampmann got too agressive and he even said after the fight "I shouldn't have gotten hit by that". Ie. Volkmann is a joke.

Btw I agree that his striking is better than Sass, but I'm not sure why you are capping his striking based off this fight seeing as how he has changed his entire stance since then, doesn't really fight the same at all in the "stand up" department.

[NunyaBidness]

Didn't read anything but the first sentence. Not sure what you're talking about listening to the commentary, I watch fights with the sound off.

[DeFactoCrippler]

Didn't read anything but the first sentence. Not sure what you're talking about listening to the commentary, I watch fights with the sound off.

I was trying to give you a way out. If you came up with that analysis all on your own then it is apparent you really have no concept of "striking" in MMA (or in general).

[MMAbetMASTA]

Didn't read anything but the first sentence. Not sure what you're talking about listening to the commentary, I watch fights with the sound off.

its amazing how much a difference it makes watching a fight with no commentary. that's actually a great tip if you're doing research and trying to remain unbiased / objective. I need to do that more often, keep forgetting to hit mute...

[Imsmarterthanu]

Didn't read anything but the first sentence. Not sure what you're talking about listening to the commentary, I watch fights with the sound off.

I watch fights with the commentary muted and mortal kombat theme song in the background

[NunyaBidness]

I was trying to give you a way out. If you came up with that analysis all on your own then it is apparent you really have no concept of "striking" in MMA (or in general).

yawn. You're the least interesting of the fresh crop of trolls around here.

[Educ8d Degener8]

I'll be out trawling (not to be confused with trolling, like these newb f@gs on the board lately) for whores on this holiday weekend, so won't likely even see this sh*t... good luck f*ckers -- well those of you making real wagers anyway.

I'll keep an eye on Volkmann + Sass by sub, and JDS ITD + Mir SOTN, maybe Struve by sub... see what the odds lay for those...

Er, f*ck it, I'll just post a bunch of winning plays after the event since that's the new thing around here.

[Imsmarterthanu]

I'll be out trawling (not to be confused with trolling, like these newb f@gs on the board lately) for whores on this holiday weekend, so won't likely even see this sh*t... good luck f*ckers -- well those of you making real wagers anyway.

I'll keep an eye on Volkmann + Sass by sub, and JDS ITD + Mir SOTN, maybe Struve by sub... see what the odds lay for those...

Er, f*ck it, I'll just post a bunch of winning plays after the event since that's the new thing around here.

Is that what you spend your petty winnings on craigslist hookers ?

[Vitooch]

Is that what you spend your petty winnings on craigslist hookers ?

And you wonder why everyone here HATES you.