$48.00 Caros Fodor > Pat Healy @ 1.57
-
Comment -
61.00$ Mighty Mouse > Mccall @ 1.36Comment -
+34.00 for the night.
Running total- 7-9. Net loss -$57.40
Working my way back...
I probably overestimated Rosa's ability to deal with that kind of aggression, but Te Huna is still awful and I will likely continue to fade him vs many B level fighters at 205. 1-1-1 on the night- my biggest play came through.Comment -
With all due respect have you actually done any research yourself? Or do you just send PM's saying you 'respect our outlook' & then ask us what bets you should make. Power punchers will always have the ability to put on 'vicious beatings', but that ability can only take you so far & it comes at a huge price (cardio).
Te Huna has a number of problems that will eventually be exposed by A & B level fighters:
-potentially career ending shoulder injury
-poor cardio, and inability to pace himself (seen in the gustafsson fight)
-reliance on power strikes and takedowns instead of technique
-0 jits, and poor defensive wrestling/grappling transitions
Awful is an exaggeration, but he really isn't going to get too high in the division.Comment -
Not sure how to reply to this comment. Yes I do my research which might explain why the fight played out exactly the way I thought it did. I was asking if you agreed with my opinion that te huna was gonna wreck rosa was all. You thought rosa had quote `decent boxing and an excellent chin`and I argued that he didn`t and that te huna was close to a lock. I dono want to tell ya. Sorry for advising you to bet on te huna, I was only trying to help confirm the confidence level of my pick and also share a good play that I thought would be profitable just like you share your plays on your thread here. Sorry about that.Comment -
$43.30 Paul Daley > Kazuo Misaki
Daley has shown big improvements to his cardio and tdd. He should be able to back Misaki up to the fence and get the tko- I expect this fight to play out similarly to rnd 2 of Daley vs Radaev.Comment -
$ 19.50 Josh Thompson > K J Noons @ 1.54Comment -
Forgot to add $40.00 Lumumba Sayers > Scott Smith @ 1.53Comment -
93.77 Daniel Straus > Jeremy Spoon @ 1.47
Spoon is a notoriously slow started, has a decent 1-2 but gets caught by 3+ punch combo's way too much. Also got wobbled by Schindlers hooks, which don't even compare to Straus's power. I expect Spoon to use his 1-2 and inside leg kicks for much of the fight to try to keep Straus at a distance. Its going to take a much better fighter than Spoon to do that though (Friere), and he should get taken down relentlessly by Straus. Spoon shows good technique grappling but gets bullied and reversed way too often by power grapplers.
11.10 Joe Warren > Pat Curran @ 4.00
Just a value play, I expect to lose but Curran is being overvalued here- he just isn't active/effective enough standing to warrant 4.0.Comment -
35.89 Kenny Foster > Alexandre Bezerra @ 7.50
7.50? Who set this line.. Wondering if someone knows something I don't- I'm playing this conservatively in case something comes up.
Foster was already training for Reardanz too, who is known for his subs.. He's likely been practicing his sub defense, and he'll need it as bezerra is a brown belt in a top school. Still though- there is an abnormal amount of value in this play, get your bets in.Comment -
Added 45.00 Daniel Straus > Jeremy Spoon @ 1.44Comment -
36.01 Ronnie Mann > Mike Corey @ 1.42Comment -
holy **** 36 units on mann? good luck!Comment -
forgot to add 54.25 Bruno Santos > Giva Santana @ 2.30
Regretting not playing Rogers... at the time I thought it was too high risk to play someone so 1 dimensional & with questionable cardio. Vianna's been tough to finish too :/Comment -
on that note, if the fight goes past rnd 1 I'm expecting a very lackluster performance from big rigComment -
I hate being on favorites so much.. & this event is no different
$11.26 Sean Spencer > Joseph Daily @ 1.93
Very evenly matched fight, it will all come down to the TDD of Spencer- I see him countering Daily's kicks with strikes & having better striking & cardio, mostly on account of having to lose an extra 2.2 lbs in 90 minutes- that's no picnic
$62.11 Rick Hawn > Ricardo Tirloni @ 1.59
Hawn by UD- one of Tirloni's best assets standing is his lowkicks outside of the pocket. I know Hawn will have watched everything on Tirloni and should have an answer for it; he is the better striker.
$20.00 Rene Nazare > Thiago Michel @ 1.69
Line finally increased to something (barely) playable, whoever wins this is going to look very good doing so. I think Nazare will finish rounds with single legs, as he always does, after a very close striking battle- where Michel lands better shots, but Nazare is the aggressor. Don't tail me on this b/c Michel has a ton of potential that has yet to be seenComment -
Daily has spent time at Jackson's...wrestled with guys like Browne and Baker. Tough weight-cut tho, think he had to cut from about 200lbs starting 6 weeks ago.Comment -
Added 25.00 on Hawn @ 1.59 for a total of $87.11Comment -
Went 3-1 on the night +$91.60
Finally starting to curb my awful start to this threadComment -
ahh I've been watching the iaquinta line for a while now and my book still hasn't posted it.... I think he had great value at 3.6- he's a shorter fighter who's very well rounded which should make him very hard to take down. I think he's better standing and is equally skilled wrestling- jury throws a lot of high kicks from the outside, and Iaquinta shoots often off kicks-(jury shoots offensively off his own) as seen in is fight to get into the house.
The only thing that worries me is Jury's gnp....Comment -
to clarify, jury's OFFENSIVE wrestling looks to be better but his defense hasn't been tested at allComment -
I didn't have money in my 5d account and missed the +260 odds. I was pissed. I think Jury's riding a lot of hype and he is the rightful favourite but those were some sweet sweet odds haha...Comment -
yea... I'm going to switch books as soon as exams are done
Jury is so 1 dimensional in his approach- 2 high kicks and a TD in almost all his fights. He's been fighting cans too. That's not to say he's not good at what he does, I just think the line should be a lot closer to evenComment -
$72.11 Al Iaquinta > Myles Jury @ 3.2Comment -
$81.00 Ben Saunders > Raul Amaya @ 1.25
Finally found enough footage on Amaya to make a reasonably informed decision- nowhere near killa b's levelComment -
ahh, I wanted to keep to just saunders and iaquinta tonight.. but a huge line swing has changed that
22.41 Karl Ammousou > Chris Lozano @ 2.70
11.93 Carlos Pereira > Bryan Baker @ 4.75Comment -
Went 3-1 again, with 3 big dogs. Can't complain! +$208.00 for the night
Comment -
Summary of plays since I started this thread:
Picks: 18-14
Net Profit: +$257.70
Return on Investment: +32.84% increase on my starting bankroll (On February 4th 2012)
Projected Gains: +16.42% per month
Not quite what I would like, but definitely closer.Comment -
Great job LucKOComment -
Bellator 64
First, don't tail me on any of these plays as I haven't done anywhere near the amount of research I would have liked to.
I got 95$ on Lima > Askren @ 3.85- but I will probably arb or hedge w/ askren decision on about half of that
$25.00 Hiroshi Nakamura > Rodrigo Lima @ 2.10
$15.00 Mike Richman > Chris Horodecki @ 4.00Comment
