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Added $25.00 Brookins > Oleviera @ 2.65
I'm not convinced Oleviera has the power to put Brookins away- we've seen him get hit hard by much more powerful strikers and still complete TD's. You're right though fosho, it's an interesting matchup to predict.
I'm regretting not playing Holloway- there were too many unknowns for me to bet him earlier... seems so obvious now though, as with most plays.Comment -
wow, not the gameplan I was expecting from brookinsComment -
forgot to add- $83.00 Ellenberger @ 1.53 from a very long time agoComment -
had #25.00 Chiesa > Iaquinta as well @ 3.10- will post a screenshot in a bit. Though I don't really have a problem posting losses
Also added to Ellenberger for a total of $133.00 @ 1.53Comment -
$240.00 Buddy Roberts > Caio Magalhaes @ 1.80
Best value on the card in my opinion, I rarely put this much down on a fighter that's new to the UFC. (Tail me here). Magalhaes has awful striking- horribly inaccurate punches, slow switch kicks, and throws almost exclusively single shots. When he does shoot for singles he completes a very small % of them, even against poor wrestlers. Though he does have great jits as a bb from nova, robert's has shown much better grappling- often reversing TD attempts. The two most important videos I've come across in researching this are:
#1- Buddy Robert's striking
#2- Caio's inactivity and sloppy takedowns
$30.00 Seth Baczynski > Lance Benoist @ 1.80
Only a small bit of value here, expect a lot of clinchwork.
$160.00 Erick Silva > Charlie Brenneman @ 1.67
Jumped on this early, I was planning to arb out but I think I'll let it ride.
Good luck all!
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I never really blindly 'tail' anyone on here, but I'll admit JC, you and a couple others have presented good points on roberts... Gonna make a half line play on him. GL and props if it hits...
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The only reason to play Roberts is to simply fade Caio... but Roberts himself sucks, so it's not at all unlikely that he won't get caught.
I might make a small play on Roberts just to tail Heysoos for fux sake, but we'll see...Comment -
Agree, if anythign its a fade against caio who from what I have researched and read is unimpressive if he's not in a favorable position on the mat... But yea didn't see too much that impressed from roberts, mostly a fade and the value at -125 is the cheapest fav line I like so I took a stab.Comment -
Roberts was such a great fade in his last fight before his opponed injured his ankle before walkoutsComment -
Hope you guys tailed on my big play. Didn't get a chance to watch it- just got home.
Added:
$10.00 Eddie Wineland @ 2.90
$40.00 Mike Pyle @ 1.48Comment -
TUF Finale: 1-1 -$165.00
FX 3: 4-0 +$359.67Comment -
Nice one bro
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100 Swanson and 70 on tj tonight, don't tailComment -
45.00 Wand @ 2.30
70.00 Perpetuo @ 1.70
50.00 Arantes @ 1.57
Again, don't tail me. Didn't do anywhere near enough research for this event.Comment -
my mistake, I got wand at 2.45 way back & I'm arbing out even for rich
120 on Franklin @ 1.62
40 on HacranComment -
last play for 147- russow + werdum go the distance for 2.40Comment -
$150.00 Dong Hyun Kim > Demian Maia @ 1.65
$240.00 Dong Hyun Kim > Demian Maia @ 1.71
Tail me here.
Done a lot of research on this one, and it's going to be my biggest play to date. I think stun gun has about a 72% chance of winning this. Dong Hyun Kim via crane kick TKO in Round 1... not kidding
I won't list everything, but a couple of key points:
- This fight is going to play out 90% on the feet. Kim holds a significant power and reach advantage in his jab and left cross (southpaw vs southpaw). Maia has a good left cross/hook that he can throw from everywhere, but he never plants his feet and is often off balance after throwing it. Most of his balance issues are because he's fighting wrestlers with power punches that force him to circle. Kim won't be any different.
- If Kim gets tagged with punches that have gained points for his opponents, he answers immediately with a huge array of high % takedowns or (more recently) 1-2-3 combinations.
- Stun gun has had the best offensive takedowns in mma for over a year now. (Not going to elaborate past that, as it is an entirely different discussion). I think that he uses them well when he gets hurt/tired. Though it must be said that maia has excellent hip escapes, and I expect that he will be able to get back to his feet within 15 seconds of being taken down.
- Even if Kim does gas in round 3, Maia has/will as well
- Maia is 34 and has been competing at a very high level of jits and mma for a long time (creates cardio/chin issues). Much like Wand (but in other areas), the attempt to 'diversify' his game away from his submission background has really hurt his ability to win fights.Comment -
Good too se you too on this pick. Im really confident in Kim as well. His takedowns is well timed, he obviously has worked with his standup after the KO loss to condit, or at least become visible in the sean pierson fight. If he can take down maia as i suspect, im not to worried of demian maias submissions as Kim have an awesome submission defence and awareness. If he slightly feels that his opponents are tricking him, he just lift his whole body from the ground and makes a submission attempt almost impossible. Looking past a faulty dec, i dont think maia has to many outs here.Comment -
Summary of plays since I started this thread:
Picks: 43-34
Net Profit: +$386.20
Return on Investment (started at 1 unit=$3.00): +126.66 Units
& Just to repeat myself- tail me on Kim > Maia. I've done a whole lot of research for it & I'm quite confident it will make you guys some $.Comment -
I'm thrilled to hear that your on DHK. I've already got a grand on him, and most definitely will be adding more. In my mind Maia only has 1 way to win this fight (submission), and I am extremely confident he will-not-get-it. Kim holds every other advantage and at -130 I'm playing this LARGE.Comment -
Curious as to why DHK line isnt really moving. Are these lines staying relatively steady because of action on Maia based mostly on name recognition?Comment -
I think were to far away from fight time. Secondly, Kim isnt exactly a fan favourite even though he has some really good wins over quality fighters. And the KO loss to condit may be the third reason why the line is not moving in his favour. KO wins and losses very often manipulate lines, and def think this is one of many reasons why this line hasnt moved that much. But i do think this will change near fight time.
I think he is greatly under appreciated at current odds.Comment -
Agree on all points. DHK is very underrated. Hoping Maia doesnt bury us all.Comment -
Maybe a left hand from Maia catches Kim before he sinks in a choke, that could happen. Although, i really cant see that happening. After watching a lot of Kims fights, he doesnt get tricked inn submissions, doesnt get tagged, he wins all of his fight by unanimous dec. He is boring, safe, and has very good ground skills. He has handled TJ Grant,Sadollah, Pierson and the two first round of the Nick Diaz fight. These matcup would for most people be considered to be nightmare matchup, but for Kim they have been favourable. To beat Kim you need a a really good striker which is well equipped on the ground like Condit, while Demian Maias standup is horrible, lacks power and creativity. I think Maia needs one of those horrible decision wins, or a submission in the first round.Comment -
And to finish of with my rant on maia. If Maia loses this fight he has 3 losses in 4 fight and his last 6 fight have all been decisions. This is a guy that is very close to getting cut and getting thrown out of the ufc head first. Kim on the other hand has 6 wins out of his 7 fights in the ufc, where his one loss came to the champion. Not only that, Kim with a win over maia, should be very near a contender match for the title. This is all numbers, but my point is. Maia may be broken or at least have some mental challenges while Kim rides a wave of self confidence. Conversely that may be Kims downfall, but he doesnt seem to be a Guillard type of person that have 0 discipline. Asian mentality topps african mentality every day.Comment -
Maia moving down a division may be worse off for him. Hes replacing the strength and size disadvantage he had in the MW division with the speed and athleticism disadvantage he will have at WW.
Btw, Anyone remember how horribly Maia gassed against Weidman? His BJJ reflexes and overall skills are not as sharp when he focused solely on BJJ. Hes older and not anywhere near DHK in terms of athleticism, speed, range, strength. DHK will leg kick Maia into oblivian. Fighting a guy like DHK is very tiring. Just ask Sean Pierson, Sadollah, even Diaz. DHK is such a strong grappler with that judo background. Hes almost impossible to takedown and submit. Ok, done with my DHK jerk session.Comment -
I too will be playing DHK at anything under -150 straight up. I won't go huge, prob. double the line at most, but the line isn't up on my book yet. I think a prop bet of Maia by sub/ITD at +300/+400 is a good play too, as that is the only way Maia wins imo.Comment -
only concern I have is kim getting swept in a scramble after he takes down maia. He has quite a bit before. When he throws or scores big trips he stops working for control- prob. b/c in judo those big throws score an ippon and end the match.
Still confident he takes it though- worth at least a mid sized playComment -
Although I believe DHK will have the edge in striking, it will still be competitive depending on which maia shows up. (Speaking about the maia who out struck munoz on the feet). This fight will surely go to the judges and that is always nerve racking in itself. Still betting DHK.Comment -
I was initially on kim as well, but have some concerns now..
you guys aren't concerned that karo, brown, and condit, all lesser skilled grapplers (and probably lesser skilled tds than maia) took kim down multiple times? Or the fact that he's had his back taken in most fights (really I think the condit fight where he was ktfo and the sadalloh fight were the only matches were he didn't have someone on his back at some point? Maia is by far the best positional grappler he's fought..
Initially I was thinking everything you guys were thinkikng in this thread and was really likking kim, but after really doing some research he's had close fights against guys who were his size and were base grapplers... I'm prob still gonna play dhk, but I won't lie I 'm not near as confident as I was.Comment -
This is what I posted in the other thread, in case you guys don't chekc that out.. Would love to hear your thoughts so that I can get more insight for my potential plays:
Kim impressed with his stand up against pierson (and really, in other fights outside of getting blasted away by condit or the last round against nate, he's done pretty darn well in the stand up department in most matches), so I think I would give him the edge in a prolonged stand up fight, which I INITIALLY thought the match would be - a stand up fight...
Like many i expected this fight to stay up because I thought maia for one, might not have the ground game approach in his mind and would choose to slug it out as he has against fellow grapplers of late, and two, Kim's base seems pretty solid and if it were to hit the ground I think it would be kim taking maia down, I initially thought kim would be able to stuff maia assumng maia even went for tds....
HOWEVER, after doing some more thorough research there are some things that have scared me now.
Brown was able to take kim down a few times in the 2nd and 3rd, took his back a couple times, and from other fights I've followed up on kim has had his back taken a few times and has been taken down and put in some bad spots (mostly based on his karo and brown fights, and didn't pierson take his back for a moment too as well as diaz? Also the condit sweep from the bottom as someone pointed out?)...
What I'm getting at is maia has underrated tds imo, and after doing some research I am not as sold on kim's base / tdd as I initially was... so now I give maia a better chance to get kim down... Also, I think maia is by far the best positional and sub grappler kim has faced, so if brown and others could put kim down and give him a few tight spots and / or reversals, what's gonna happen if maia is in those spots???
If I knew this could stay on the feet for 3 rounds I would be all over kim, but now that sounds a little easier said than done.
I realize the weight cut and maia's performances as of late might leave some to believe maia is either gonna bang on the feet for 3 rounds and not pursue a td, or is not gonna have the 'pep' or stength he once had to absolutely dominate people on the ground and would not fare well against a battle for position, especially with kim on top... Yet now I'm not so certain. Then again I'm really questioning how maia's cut is gonna be, because it seemed he really muscled up and put on some mass over the courese of his zuffa mw career, and now he is planning to cut a lot of that off??? He was already sluggish at mw and unlike other weight cuts for some fighters, I'm thinking this one might be worse off for maia...?
I was thinking kim was gonna be one of the only 'favorite' palys for me this card (depending on a few other fights I'm hoping to get a decent 'fav' line on), but now I'm not so certain about the paly. If I had decision option at +150 I'd be all over that, but I don't have props so I'm looking at a -135 SU line and now I can't pull the trigger.
Any new thoughts on this fight?? or agreements / disagreements with what I've said??Comment -
Pierson had some success in the first round of their fight as well...think he reversed him and took his back at one point?Comment -
First of all, I appreciate the discussion.. It's productive & the reason I'm here in the first place. I definitely see your point in dhk ending up in some unfavorable grappling exchanges, I think he's in trouble if maia locks up a triangle in the early parts of each round. However, dhk initiated almost all of the scrambles that he ended up getting the worst of. In this fight I see him winning the striking exchanges enough not to even bother with TD's. Sure he can get caught, but I think the chances of that are a lot lower than the odds indicate.
Did a bunch more research, so here's my second play for the night. Tail me on this one also.
$130.00 Mike Easton > Ivan Menjivar @ 1.77
The most important aspect of this fight is Easton's aggressiveness. Menjivar is the more diverse striker. His quick leg kicks are his biggest advantage, but it's hard to throw leg kicks that arn't countered when you're already backing up. Easton has faster and more powerful hands, and will punish fighters who close the distance to engage with him. I see him backing Menjivar up for 3 rounds, just like he has in almost every fight. 30-27 UD for Easton.Comment -
Few more things- I looked fairly deep into the Alessio fight and I don't see much/if any value in his current line (2.6)
If anyone has any insight into the fukuda fight, I'd be glad to hear it- I'm looking at that one nextComment
