lucKO's MMA Predictions

**Vaughany** · 04-06-12, 03:05 PM

Wer u gonna get Askren by decision from brah?!

**lucKO** · 04-06-12, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Wer u gonna get Askren by decision from brah?!

ahh, I thought it would be offered- guess not. Damn.

Off to a good start though

I arb'd out of $40.00 of my $95.00 Lima bet for a few dollars. Still got $45.00 on Lima @ 3.85.

Just as a side note- I think playing Sandro at anything less than 1.70 is pretty high risk. He looked gassed in rnd 1 in his last fight, and got wobbled by a fairly weak punch in the one before that- dude's getting old!

**lucKO** · 04-07-12, 02:46 AM

2-1 for the night +$27.50

haven't had time to watch the fights yet. I feel like I would have put a lot more down on Richman if I had time to actually calculate a line, but I guess that's hindsight.

Can anyone tell me if Lima ever threatened Askren? 50-45 was not what I was expecting o_O

**Libert1ne** · 04-07-12, 06:29 AM

Originally posted by lucKO

2-1 for the night +$27.50

haven't had time to watch the fights yet. I feel like I would have put a lot more down on Richman if I had time to actually calculate a line, but I guess that's hindsight.

Can anyone tell me if Lima ever threatened Askren? 50-45 was not what I was expecting o_O

Askren completely dominated him. Wasn't close at all...

**omalley21** · 04-07-12, 08:46 AM

Lima almost landed a knee as Askren was coming in for the takedown one time, a few uppercuts just missed also. Threatened with arm bars too. Askren was just too funky.

**lucKO** · 04-13-12, 06:15 PM

$25.00 Eduardo Dantas > Zach Makovsky @ 1.91
$20.00 Mike Corey > Daniel Straus @ 4.25
$25.00 Ed West > Marcos Galvao @ 2.00

Don't tail

**lucKO** · 04-13-12, 06:17 PM

Added some to Dantas for a total of $40.00 Eduardo Dantas > Zach Makovsky @ 1.91

**lucKO** · 04-13-12, 07:35 PM

$30.00 Alexis Vila > Luis Nogueira @ 1.57

Again, don't tail- I'm scrambling to do research. Haven't had time this week to research b/c of exams

**lucKO** · 04-13-12, 09:06 PM

i knew round 1 has already started, forgot to add another 60 on dantas @ 1.83

**lucKO** · 04-14-12, 12:25 AM

1-3 for the night +$6.00

Admittedly sloppy betting on my part, but just for tonight

& Thank god Dantas won, that kid is a killer.

**lucKO** · 04-14-12, 11:59 AM

Ufc on fuel 2 bets: Again, havent done anything near the amount of research I normally do. Don't tail me. This will be the last card of subjective betting

$140.00 Paulo Thiago > Siyar Bahadurzada @ 1.70
$50.00 Alex Gustafsson > Thiago Silva @ 1.48
$60.00 John Maguire > Demarquez Johnson @ 1.62
$140.00 Diego Nunes > Dennis Siver @ 1.53

**lucKO** · 04-20-12, 08:32 PM

I lied, still more bets with less than spectacular research. Just got home from writing my last final

. Don't tail.

$25.00 Rick Hawn > Lloyd Woodard @ 1.40
$20.00 Thiago Michel > Brent Weedman @ 2.85
$80.00 Vyachaslav Vasilevsky > Maiquel Falcao @ 2.25
$5.00 Andreas Spang > Brian Rogers @ 3.65

*some have already finished

**lucKO** · 04-21-12, 04:01 PM

Alright, finally have time to take this seriously again. Done a ton a research for this one & I can tell you guys to tail with a reasonable degree of confidence.

Escudero- throws single punches from mid range, and uses lead/power kicks from the outside. When he gets hit he bounces straight back & resets. If he gets too close he clinches and looks for takedowns. In each of his last 3 fights he's looked for guillotines immediately when there's a threat of him being taken down. His guillotine in the early rounds is the only thing that really scares me about this fight- likely picked up from henderson. He doesn't really throw volume, and looked gassed at the end of a slow paced fight with rio.

Danzig- known for boxing oriented stand up w/ very technical counter combinations. He used to have issues with wrestlers but he's clearly worked on that for his fights with wiman and stevenson. His last fight with wiman (one of my favorite fights ever) showed his ability to go 3 rounds at the highest pace any 155'er can deliver. He will be far too active and should easily take over with volume counters and takedowns of his own. Training at black house should also help him counter the lead kicks escudero throws with power- even though he already does.

I expect Danzig to win by the rare round 3 t/ko

$151.93 Mac Danzig > Efrain Escudero @ 1.61

**lucKO** · 04-21-12, 06:13 PM

Added $71.11 on Danzig @ 1.70

**lucKO** · 04-21-12, 07:33 PM

good gravy

as someone who just had their ankle broken.. that looked bad

**Libert1ne** · 04-21-12, 07:38 PM

I was on Danzig too. Cheers bruv

**lucKO** · 04-21-12, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by Libert1ne

I was on Danzig too. Cheers bruv

Thanks man, congrats

I put $42.00 on Njokuani > Makdessi @ 1.48 last second, and $5.00 Rashad > Jones @ 4.25 for fun

I really don't think Jones is that good, he gets by fine on his athleticism but I certainly don't think hes the future of the division.. But then again neither is rashad. Guess we'll see. Good luck!

**Libert1ne** · 04-21-12, 08:20 PM

I was on Njokuani, Danzig, and Clements. Rest of the card I;m on the dogs except for the main and co main

**lucKO** · 05-06-12, 10:26 AM

Well, I didn't get a chance to watch the fights b/c the internet in cancun is garbage... but I cleaned up- take it for what you will (posted after the fights). I ended up switching on the Ferguson fight for a loss b/c I couldn't find Johnson's latest fight until the last second, and it changed my bet completely. Didn't expect Diaz to win either- I'll have to watch that when I get back.

$30.00 Danny Castillo > John Cholish @ 1.80
$50.00 Nate Diaz > Jim Miller @ 2.70
$140.00 Tony Ferguson > Michael Johnson @ 1.37
$170.00 Michael Johnson > Tony Ferguson @ 3.10

UFC on Fox 3 Results: 3-1 +326.00

Hope everyone did well, I'll be back at it on monday when I get home.

**lucKO** · 05-09-12, 10:01 PM

$79.86 Stipe Miocic > Shane Del Rosario @ 1.65

In my opinion Rosario has one of the best attitudes in the sport. On top of sharing the same university degree with me, I think he admires the right qualities of the right fighters (fedor, aoki) & is a relatively well rounded force in the division. In order of importance, the key factors to this fight are:
- It's Rosario's first fight in the UFC, and he's coming back after a 1 year layoff. He has never fought to a decision and I think Miocic will test his cardio
- They both have great low kicks, and I expect a lot of them from both fighters given their opposing stances. Stipe also has an excellent jab, which I think will be the difference in the standup battle (though Rosario will be the faster of the 2).
- Both fighters have been rocked fairly badly and come back to win in recent fights- miocic vs defries & rosario vs cash (though rosario was put out cold fighting for the WBC title against the late ginty vrede). When miocic gets pressured as he did in rnd 2 vs Beltran, he sets up his shots for single leg TD's very nicely. When Rosario gets pressured he covers up and circles out, or pulls guard if he's hurt.
- Rosario has great knees from the clinch, but Stipe controls his opponents better when he ties up standing

There are a few other little things I've noted but I'm not going to bother- those are the important ones. I give Miocic a 65% chance to win, and expect him to win a back and forth 30-27 decision

**lucKO** · 05-11-12, 02:18 PM

$64.88 Justin Lawrence > Mike Chiesa @ 1.37

$20.02 Seth Petruzelli > Carmelo Marrero @ 2.00

**lucKO** · 05-11-12, 02:46 PM

$64.88 Justin Lawrence > Mike Chiesa @ 1.37 
 
$20.02 Seth Petruzelli > Carmelo Marrero @ 2.00

**lucKO** · 05-11-12, 03:01 PM

$27.11 Daniel Straus > Marlon Sandro @ 2.00

& that's it for me- not a lot of value in the matchups tonight

**lucKO** · 05-11-12, 07:01 PM

Added 20.00 on Straus

**lucKO** · 05-11-12, 07:32 PM

Wow, zaromskis vs spiritwolf- unreal. Who hires these doctors and what are their credentials within mma? Fighters will get cuts like that in training & keep going..

**lucKO** · 05-14-12, 08:01 PM

$90.00 Marcus Levesseur > Cody Mckenzie @ 1.80

**lucKO** · 05-18-12, 02:37 PM

2 value plays for bellator tonight-

$131.45 Megumi Fujii > Jessica Aguilar @ 1.42
$66.11 Karl Amoussou > David Rickels @ 1.63

**lucKO** · 05-18-12, 04:43 PM

$15.00 Andy Ogle > Al Iaquinta @ 4.25
$15.00 Chris Saunders > Vinc Pichel @ 3.65

**v1y** · 05-18-12, 04:54 PM

i'm on saunders tonight. still riding high with my +26 units from tuesday.

**lucKO** · 05-18-12, 08:02 PM

added 80 on amoussou @ 1.67

**lucKO** · 05-19-12, 11:43 AM

$91.00 Daniel Cormier < Josh Barnett @ Evens
$20.00 Mike Kyle > Rafael Cavalcante @ 2.45

**lucKO** · 05-19-12, 12:00 PM

Want to bet feijao but he's so damn inconsistent, even within fights. He definitely has the talent to be an A level fighter, but he gets complacent when he needs to be busy. When things don't go his way his output drops huge.

**lucKO** · 05-19-12, 01:12 PM

$18.25 Chris Spang > Nah Shon Burrell @ 3.20

All going to come down to Burrells wrestling and sub defense. I think it's pretty even standing & the line is built on Burrell's athleticism. Not a lot of value here though- I give Spang a 36% chance.

**lucKO** · 05-25-12, 06:47 PM

$45.00 Mike Chisea > James Vick @ 2.20
$35.00 Brent Weedman > Rick Hawn @ 4.25

**lucKO** · 06-01-12, 01:14 AM

$60.00 Johnathan Brookins > Charles Oleviera @ 2.60

I think that a brookins tko from an elbow along the cage/gnp is much more likely than an Oleviera sub. Brookins is an excellent positional grappler and I don't think that a sub here is as likely as many people believe.

This fight should look a lot like brookins vs koch, but I think koch is on an entirely different level. Oleviera throws a lot of kicks that will leave him open, and doesn't do well when fighters get inside his jab- (relying only on knees, which leave him open to TD's) e.g. cerrone in the clinch. Another important aspect of this fight is that when brookins gets hurt he shoots, when oleviera gets hurt he pulls guard.

Brookins via KO after hurting Oleviera in the clinch & following him to the ground