lucKO's MMA Predictions

[lucKO]

I've been meaning to make a thread for a while now but have been putting it off b/c of the influx of the new, & less than mediocre prediction threads.

Anyway, to summarize UFC 143:

100$ Alex Caceres @ 1.95 (bad price, I know) but he is the better technical striker. Both turn into their lead leg when they throw, classic Southpaw vs Orthodox- will favor Caceres, as Figueroa prefers to brawl with powerful hooks. Caceres has a good chin and should win the fight on the outside. I expect both fighters to be content standing, though if it does go to the ground I give a sizable jits advantage to Caceres also. The only worry I have is Figueroa's power during the 1st and 2nd rounds.

70$ Mike Pierce @ 3.05 - Value play. More diverse striking, great defensive wrestling etc.

28$ Werdum @ 1.67- I expect him to counter Nelsons right hand with enough low kicks and knees to outscore him in exchanges. Werdum should have more power in the clinch given his height, and should be able to keep his back off the cage for at least rounds 1 & 2.

100$ Barao @ 1.47- training at Nova Unaio is almost unfair to other fighters in the lighter weightclasses. I expect Jorgenson to do the same thing he does every fight- keep his head down & punch his way into takedowns. Barao has faster hands and should be able to stuff td's while landing big uppercuts and knees.

I also arb'd out of diaz condit for a few $, but won't count that towards my totals.
Hopefully I don't look stupid tomorrow, I've put way to much time into research for this one.

Cheers

[proposition joe]

Good luck

[lucKO]

2-2 for the night, I'm pretty disappointed with the lost $ but I still think all my plays we're solid & very well analysed. I've been away in the mountains so I've only read the pbp, but I'll watch them soon and try to provide a better write up for the next one. I'm going to try to beat vaughany on straight bets haha

Hope everyone else had a better night

[lucKO]

UFC on Fuel

Aaron Simpson > Ronny Markes. (Probably around $140 if it gets to 2.05)- I expect the line to get better by weigh ins considering Ronny is cutting properly/recent action. This is going to be a VERY close fight that should end in a decision, and regardless of the outcome I expect Markes to reach the upper levels of the division in a few years given his excellent camp. With that being said, Aaron Simpson's latest performances have shown continually improved striking and cardio. Simpson has very good TD defense and when he does get taken down he usually scrambles quickly to his feet. I expect Simpson to outland Markes when standing, and use his good footwork to circle off the cage. I think Markes has done well because the majority of his opponents have initiated the clinch with him, where he dominates with power doubles and knees. Simpson's camp also has good wrestlers that can emulate TD's in the same style (Bader), and I expect that he was training TDD for the Schafer fight also. The only thing that really concerns me is his age having an effect on his chin/cardio.. This is one of the only times you'll see me bet on 38 year old, especially considering the youth of Markes.

In short this is a risky fight to bet on either way, and I'm playing it based on a number of small advantages that favor Simpson. Hopefully I don't end up on the wrong side of a split dec. again.

Dave Herman > Stefan Struve ($120 @ 1.83)- All Herman has to do is be smart. Herman's tendency to scramble for leg locks when he's losing positional grappling exchanges worries me, but he should have no problem keeping it standing and getting inside on Struve. Herman should win rds 1 & 2 on leg kicks and counters off Stefan's jab.. Hopefully team quest has helped his suspect cardio.

Good luck everyone!

[varkolek]

UFC on Fuel

Aaron Simpson > Ronny Markes. (Probably around $140 if it gets to 2.05)- I expect the line to get better by weigh ins considering Ronny is cutting properly/recent action. This is going to be a VERY close fight that should end in a decision, and regardless of the outcome I expect Markes to reach the upper levels of the division in a few years given his excellent camp. With that being said, Aaron Simpson's latest performances have shown continually improved striking and cardio. Simpson has very good TD defense and when he does get taken down he usually scrambles quickly to his feet. I expect Simpson to outland Markes when standing, and use his good footwork to circle off the cage. I think Markes has done well because the majority of his opponents have initiated the clinch with him, where he dominates with power doubles and knees. Simpson's camp also has good wrestlers that can emulate TD's in the same style (Bader), and I expect that he was training TDD for the Schafer fight also. The only thing that really concerns me is his age having an effect on his chin/cardio.. This is one of the only times you'll see me bet on 38 year old, especially considering the youth of Markes.

In short this is a risky fight to bet on either way, and I'm playing it based on a number of small advantages that favor Simpson. Hopefully I don't end up on the wrong side of a split dec. again.

Good analysis. Makes me scared about how much I bet on Markes. I might try to hedge with Simpson by decision later on.

[The HOFF]

Like both plays. Waiting to see if I get Simpson at +$$$.

[lucKO]

Good analysis. Makes me scared about how much I bet on Markes. I might try to hedge with Simpson by decision later on.

Yeah- Markes KO hedged with Simpson Dec would be ideal. Its hard to say how much Markes has improved over the last 6 months- and he will need to have improved significantly to beat Simpson. Either way it's going to be a good fight.

[gabe]

Good analysis. Makes me scared about how much I bet on Markes. I might try to hedge with Simpson by decision later on.

Yeah- Markes KO hedged with Simpson Dec would be ideal. Its hard to say how much Markes has improved over the last 6 months- and he will need to have improved significantly to beat Simpson. Either way it's going to be a good fight.

Keep in mind Markes fought at 205 last time and is fighting at 185 now and should have a size advantage.

I was considering hedging with Simpson too but I think Fight Goes over 2.5 would be a better hedge... Chances are you'll win both bets, but it's likely that at least one of them will hit, 'cos I don't see Simpson knocking Markes out (he couldn't even put Eric Schaffer away) nor submitting him. Only way he wins if he grinds out or steals a decision. Markes straight and fight goes over 2.5 are the plays here.

[lucKO]

Keep in mind Markes fought at 205 last time and is fighting at 185 now and should have a size advantage.

I was considering hedging with Simpson too but I think Fight Goes over 2.5 would be a better hedge... Chances are you'll win both bets, but it's likely that at least one of them will hit, 'cos I don't see Simpson knocking Markes out (he couldn't even put Eric Schaffer away) nor submitting him. Only way he wins if he grinds out or steals a decision. Markes straight and fight goes over 2.5 are the plays here.

Can't fault you for those plays, especially if you got Markes at 2.2+. Markes has cut down huge since his last fight though- somewhere just over 190 lbs. I think he'll be basically the same size at weigh ins and only a little bigger by fight time- young fighters rehydrate faster

[BIGDAY]

Like both plays. Waiting to see if I get Simpson at +$$$.

Same here.

[gabe]

Same here.

That's only because Simpson is a wrestler lol

[fosho14]

Could someone please post reasons for choosing markes other than the numbers being in his favour and him being a dog. Simpson has the edge on the ground, and the feet...

[varkolek]

Wait until the fight happens before you burst everyone's bubble. Vemola slammed Seth Petruzelli from a single leg, and he lifted Madsen off the ground with a single as well. Madsen had trained with Brock Lesnar and beat Brock in high school, and Madsen is basically larger than Vemola. Vemola had a smaller frame with excess muscle.

Simpson might have better technique, but realistically I don't see him outwrestling Jon Madsen. Either Markes is a prodigy without a wrestling background, or he gets embarrassed by Simpson's wrestling. If Markes gets embarrassed in the stand up that doesn't prove anything.

Also, Markes probably has decent jiu jitsu coming from Nova Uniao, so even if Simpson does have an edge in take downs Markes might do well in the grappling. I haven't watched Simpson's fight with Tavares, but apparently he had trouble taking him down. It's unlikely Simpson walks through Markes without ever having a take down stuffed.

I'll probably hedge or arb with Simpson, but the opening line at least had value.

[fosho14]

Wait until the fight happens before you burst everyone's bubble.

lol wtf is that supposed to mean. The sole purpose of this board is discussing events that happen before they happen and helping one another arrive at conclusions.

Have you even watched the madsen/Vemola fight. Vemola got dominated and out grappled at his 1 and only strength just like he did against markes. vemola is garbage and Markes is not a prodigy.

[varkolek]

I said that in humour.

Have you even watched the madsen/Vemola fight. Vemola got dominated and out grappled at his 1 and only strength just like he did against markes. vemola is garbage and Markes is not a prodigy.

Yes Vemola was dominated by Madsen. Madsen is also 261 lb. It doesn't mean that Simpson would be able to out grapple Madsen, or that Simpson would be able to out grapple Vemola.

People without a wrestling background can have wrestling skills. Hiroyuki Takaya has good takedown defence but never trained it. Aldo has good take down defence but isn't a wrestler, he's just naturally gifted. In a lot of fights you have non-wrestlers taking down wrestlers and even outgrappling them.

[lucKO]

Markes has a lot of qualities that could make him a force in the division- power in his hands and good take downs from the outside. He just has to clean up his striking, and nova uniao will do that for him eventually.

Make no mistake though, Simpson is going to get outclassed if the fight becomes a grappling match. Markes is a pederneiras brown belt & has significantly more power in his TD's than Simpson. I'm banking on Simpson stuffing the first few shots and keeping markes backing up with his striking, but I guess we'll see.

[fosho14]

Dude, I know that.... yes I know that.... The original point I was trying to make is that Vemola has not looked good and actually IS NOT GOOD. Do you think he's good? If so than lets just stop right here, and agree to disagree! Without even bringing up credentials, I am simply saying that Simpson has proved to be a talented wrestler. Do yourself a favour and re-watch his fight against munoz. He outwrestled and outgrappled munoz, but came up short on the stand-up striking exchanges and lost the decision. simpson has PROVEN himself time and time again to have effective wrestling inside the octagon. Yes markes proved he can lay on top of a shitty fighter in vermola in his sole octagon appearance, and his stand up looked rudimentary at best. I'm not sure who will win and I might not even bet on this fight, all I'm saying is that it would be very unwise to bet on Markes at the current odds right now. He should be a HUGE dog and he's not. Do you really see Vemola outgrappling or submitting simpson? I don't. And if it stays on the feet, I sure as hell don't see Vemola scoring any points whatsoever. If Markes was at least +200 preferably +300 than ya maybe we could actually have this conversation, but right now he is between -105 and -110 lol. NOT A SMART PLAY TAKING MARKES AT THAT NUMBER, this is either a (do not bet) or a play on simpson, I haven't decided which yet.

[fosho14]

lucKO, I respect your outlook, thats an interesting assumption, but doubtful. Sorry, last post was directed at varkolek

[gabe]

Dude, I know that.... yes I know that.... The original point I was trying to make is that Vemola has not looked good and actually IS NOT GOOD. Do you think he's good? If so than lets just stop right here, and agree to disagree! Without even bringing up credentials, I am simply saying that Simpson has proved to be a talented wrestler. Do yourself a favour and re-watch his fight against munoz. He outwrestled and outgrappled munoz, but came up short on the stand-up striking exchanges and lost the decision. simpson has PROVEN himself time and time again to have effective wrestling inside the octagon. Yes markes proved he can lay on top of a shitty fighter in vermola in his sole octagon appearance, and his stand up looked rudimentary at best. I'm not sure who will win and I might not even bet on this fight, all I'm saying is that it would be very unwise to bet on Markes at the current odds right now. He should be a HUGE dog and he's not. Do you really see Vemola outgrappling or submitting simpson? I don't. And if it stays on the feet, I sure as hell don't see Vemola scoring any points whatsoever. If Markes was at least +200 preferably +300 than ya maybe we could actually have this conversation, but right now he is between -105 and -110 lol. NOT A SMART PLAY TAKING MARKES AT THAT NUMBER, this is either a (do not bet) or a play on simpson, I haven't decided which yet.

What are you saying??? If you think Markes should be +300, then that'd mean Simpson would be around -375... So you should consider getting him (Simpson) at -110 to be a STEAL but instead you're contemplating betting it??? WTFugazi?!

[Vaughany]

Could someone please post reasons for choosing markes other than the numbers being in his favour and him being a dog. Simpson has the edge on the ground, and the feet...

I honestly cant! Only obvious advantage will be the size which might not end up being as great as it seems, and perhaps Simpson not being the most clinical of fighters despite having some power in his right hand (meaning higher chance him not finishing). I just knew that Markes would get action at anything better than Evens so maxed the +155 opener. Although it may not be particularly hard for Markes to get Simpson down, it will be a lot harder to keep him down - Simpson is great at scrambling and getting back to his feet.

[fosho14]

What are you saying??? If you think Markes should be +300, then that'd mean Simpson would be around -375... So you should consider getting him (Simpson) at -110 to be a STEAL but instead you're contemplating betting it??? WTFugazi?!

I probably will play simpson, but the 1 or 2 ppl on here who are backing markes for reasons I don't even know are kind of making me hesitant to play simpson large. Markes is the bigger man and could potentially outmuscle/outwork simpson. I firmly believe simpson has more skill and more technique with his wrestling abilities to gain the advantageos positions through out the fight BUT, I can maybe see markes pushing simpson up against the fence and clinching a lot, making it boring and scoring points exactly the way he did to Vemola. I dono man weighing everything into account I just feel like you gotta go with simpson at these odds, lets hope I don't look stupid!

[gabe]

I probably will play simpson, but the 1 or 2 ppl on here who are backing markes for reasons I don't even know are kind of making me hesitant to play simpson large. Markes is the bigger man and could potentially outmuscle/outwork simpson. I firmly believe simpson has more skill and more technique with his wrestling abilities to gain the advantageos positions through out the fight BUT, I can maybe see markes pushing simpson up against the fence and clinching a lot, making it boring and scoring points exactly the way he did to Vemola. I dono man weighing everything into account I just feel like you gotta go with simpson at these odds, lets hope I don't look stupid!

Do you think Brad Tavares is a better grappler than Ronny Markes? Because Simpson had trouble wrestling him. I think Markes has a better ground game than Tavares and as good or better TDD. He should have an edge in the striking department, as well. Simpson looked really good in his last fight, but it was against a sh!tty Eric Schaffer who has no striking skills. Simpson isn't gonna wanna stand with Markes and he isn't gonna be able to get him to the ground. If anything, Markes will take him to the ground. How I see it, anyway.

[gabe]

I can't find working links to Markes' fights

[Vaughany]

Simpson plus +105 now on sportbet

[Vaughany]

I can't find working links to Markes' fights

Couple on youtube isnt there? Saw the Filho one on there for sure

[fosho14]

Simpson isn't gonna wanna stand with Markes and he isn't gonna be able to get him to the ground. If anything, Markes will take him to the ground. How I see it, anyway.

hmmm maybe the odds makers know what they're doing and there's a reason that the odds are even. Although I strongly disagree with your opinion that simpson isn't going to wanna stand with markes. His striking has been looking better, and he is certainly not going to be intimidated or afraid of markes striking.

[gabe]

Couple on youtube isnt there? Saw the Filho one on there for sure

Meant the Vemola fight

[Vaughany]

hmmm maybe the odds makers know what they're doing and there's a reason that the odds are even. Although I strongly disagree with your opinion that simpson isn't going to wanna stand with markes. His striking has been looking better, and he is certainly not going to be intimidated or afraid of markes striking.

Bare in mind that the odds makers brought out Simpson as a -180 favourite...it's the betting public that have changed the line to close to Evens either side.

[Vaughany]

Meant the Vemola fight

Oh, yeah couldnt find tht

[fosho14]

Bare in mind that the odds makers brought out Simpson as a -180 favourite...it's the betting public that have changed the line to close to Evens either side.

Right you are, my bad. So with everything thats been said who do you give the edge to?

[Vaughany]

Right you are, my bad. So with everything thats been said who do you give the edge to?

It's really difficult to say...I'm not gonna pretend that I'm really confident either way! I think Markes has a better chance of finishing the fight, but then I do think Simpson may throw more combinations and score more points standing, and give him a slightly better chance of getting a decision. I'll be arbing out or playing Simpson by decision no matter what

[PunisherIND]

5dimes just released some new prop lines. a couple that people may be interested in:

a-train by decision +174
dillashaw by decision +156
watson inside distance +465

[Vaughany]

Got Dillashaw by decision at +156
Also took Means at +165

[PunisherIND]

Got Dillashaw by decision at +156
Also took Means at +165

nice nice.. i got the same line on dillashaw by dec. also got means at +170 on bovada, but subsequently arbed with maghalaes -150. not the greatest profit but i wasnt that confident in means to begin with.

[PunisherIND]

nice nice.. i got the same line on dillashaw by dec. also got means at +170 on bovada, but subsequently arbed with maghalaes -150. not the greatest profit but i wasnt that confident in means to begin with.

im regretting this move right now. should have waited.