135$ Aaron Simpson > Ronny Markes @ 1.87
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Comment -
65$ Jonathan Brookins > Vagner Rocha @ 1.44Comment -
Waiting to see if I can get Diego small at 3.85+, need to watch more tape though. I'll agree that he's not better than ellenberger at any tangible aspect of mma, but he does have a better work rate & at those odds I think he has a very small amount of value. Probably not a popular bet though. Hoping Ellenberger looks huge at weigh ins so people bet him
Comment -
30$ Bernardo Magalhaes > Tim Means @ 1.74
25$ Diego Sanchez > Jake Ellenberger @ 4.00
Comment -
wow, 3 for 8.. just gross
. this is one of the worst streaks I've had in a while.. right when I start a new thread too haha. Ah well. If anyone cares these have been my plays over the last however many months, take them for what you will.
Loss 30- MACHIDA > RAMPAGE
Loss 10- HUGHES > BJ PENN
WIN 40- SOTIROPOULOS > JOE LAUZON
LOSS 10- KOSCHECK > GSP (ABSOLUTE KO)
WIN 65- MAC DANZIG > JOE STEVENSON
WIN 20- THIAGO ALVES > JOHN HOWARD
WIN 90- SEAN PEARSON > MATT RIDDLE
WIN 40- LAWLER > LINDLAND
DRAW 130- EDGAR > MAYNARD
WIN 32- GUIDA > GOMI
@ 1.57
WIN 30- DONG HYUN KIM > NATE DIAZ
@ 1.72
LOSS 40- COLE MILLER > MATT WIMAN
@ 1.48
Loss 75- JACARE > LAWLER
@ 3.25
WIN 105- MELVIN GUILLARD > EVAN DUNHAM
@ 2.75
WIN 25- HOMINICK > ROOP
@ 1.36
WIN 62.50- GRIFFIN > FRANKLIN
@ 2.25
WIN 20.00- ELLENBERGER > CARLOS ROCHA
@ 1.25
WIN 43.75- DEMETRIOUS JOHNSON > KID YAMAMOTO
@ 1.95
WIN 24.75- PAUL TAYLOR > GABE RUEDIGER
@ 1.45
LOSS 100.00- ANDREI ARLOVSKI < SERGEI
@ 1.90
WIN 22.80- VALENTIJN OVEREEM > RAY SEFO
@ 1.57
LOSE 25.00- JOHN SALGADO < IGOR GRACIE
@ 3.20
LOSE 15.00- LAVAR JOHNSON < SHANE DEL ROSARIO
@ 2.67
WIN 61.00- ANTONIO SILVA > FEDOR
@ 4.05
WIN 175.00- DENNIS SIVER > GEORGE SOTIROPOULOS
@ 3.50
WIN 33.60- KYLE NOKE > CHRIS CAMOZZI
@ 1.48
LOSE 50.00- JAMES TE HUNA < ALEXANDER GUSTAFSSON
@ 3.45
WIN 50.00- NICK RING > RIKI FUKUDA
@ 2.00
DRAW (REFUNDED)- BJ PENN VS JON FITCH
@ 2.50
WIN 48.00- MARK MUNOZ > CB DOLLAWAY
@1.44
LOSS 150.00- DAN HENDERSON > RAFAEL CALVALCANTE
@ 2.40
LOSS 80.00- LITTLE NOG > PHIL DAVIS
@ 3.60
LOSS 40.00- ANTHONY NJOKUANI > EDSON BARBOZA
@ 3.35
WIN 31.50- GLEISON TIBAU > KURT PELLEGRINO
@ 1.63
LOSS 20.00- KAMAL SHALORUS > JIM MILLER
@ 2.80
WIN 19.00- MACKENS SEMERZIER > ALEX CACERES
@ 1.38
WIN 49.50- ANTHONY JOHNSON > DAN HARDY
@ 1.55
WIN 44.40- PATRICKY FREIRE > TOBY IMADA
@ 1.74
WIN 140.00- RICK HAWN > LYMAN GOOD
@ 2.40
LOSE 35.00- NICK DIAZ > PAUL DALEY
@ 2.60
LOSE 30.00- SHINYA AOKI > LYLE BEERBOHM
@ 2.70
LOSE 40.00- MICHAEL CHANDLER > LLOYD WOODARD
@ 2.05
WIN 36.00- DANIEL STRAUS > KENNY FOSTER
@ 1.60
WIN 28.00- PATRICIO FREIRE > WILSON REIS
@ 1.28
Loss 20.00- TIM CARPENTER > CHRISTIAN MPUMBU
@ 1.43
WIN 13.40- RICHARD HALE > DJ LINDERMAN
@ 1.67
WIN 24.60- JAKE ELLENBERGER > SEAN PIERSON
@ 1.41
WIN 40.00- RORY MACDONALD > NATE DIAZ
@ 1.80
LOSS 30.00- JASON BRILZ < VLADIMIR MATYUSHENKO
@ 1.85
WIN 9.60- LYOTO MACHIDA > RANDY COUTURE
@ 1.32
WIN 75.00- BEN HENDERSON > MARK BOCEK
@ 1.75
LOSS 30.00- MARK HOMINICK < JOSE ALDO??????
@ 3.80
LOSS 45.00- PATRICKY FREIRE < MIKE CHANDLER
@ 2.30
LOSS 50.00- KARL AMOUSSOU < SAM ALVEY
@ 1.43
WIN 20.00- CHRISTIAN M'PUMBU > RICHARD HALE
@ 1.80
WIN 19.50- PATRICIO FREIRE > DANIEL STRAUS
@ 1.65
--------------------------------------------------------------
MAY 23 2011- NET PROFIT EXCLUDING 15$(TO WIN 300): $540
--------------------------------------------------------------
LOSS 10.00- RAFAELLO OLIVEIRA < GLEISON TIBAU
@ 4.00
WIN 45.00- BRIAN STANN > JORGE SANTIAGO
@ 1.69
LOSS 45.00- ROY NELSON < FRANK MIR
@ 1.91
WIN 95.00- RICK STORY > THIAGO ALVES
@ 2.90
LOSS 90.00- MIGUEL TORRES < DEMETRIOUS JOHNSON
@ 1.77
WIN 35.00- KYLE KINGBURY > FABIO MALDONADO
@ 1.50
WIN 90.00- TONY FERGUSON > RAMSEY NIJEM
@ 1.91
LOSS 30.00- VALENTIJN OVEREEM < CHAD GRIGGS
@ 2.05
WIN 69.00- CONOR HUEN > MAGNO ALMEIDA
@ 2.15
WIN 26.09- LORENZ LARKIN > GIAN VILLANTE
@ 1.87
WIN 42.00- MATT BROWN > JOHN HOWARD
@ 3.10
LOSS 20.00- CURT WARBURTON < JOE LAUZON
@ 4.00
WIN 36.00- JAVIER VAZQUEZ > JOE STEVENSON
@ 2.80
WIN 47.00- RAFAEL DOS ANJOS > GEORGE SOTIROPOLOUS
@ 2.90
LOSS 90.00- DONG HYUN KIM < CARLOS CONDIT
@ 1.90
WIN 134.00- DOMINICK CRUZ > URIJAH FABER
@ 1.81
LOSS 130.00- WANDERLEI SILVA < CHRIS LEBEN
@ 1.54
WIN 29.03- NORMAN PARAISY > JACK MASON
@ 1.65
WIN 19.23- OVINCE ST PREUX > JOE CASON
@ 1.38
WIN 40.00- SARAH KAUFMAN > LIZ CARMOUCHE
@ 1.59
LOSS 30.00- TIM KENNEDY > ROBBIE LAWLER
@ 3.20
LOSS 100.00- MARLOES COENEN < MIESHA TATE
@ 1.83
WIN 40.00- ALEXANDER GUSTAFSSON > MATT HAMILL
@ 1.67
WIN 82.35- ALEXANDER GUSTAFSSON > MATT HAMILL
@ 1.59
LOSS 50.00- KYLE NOKE < ED HERMAN
@ 1.57
LOSS 30.00- GURGEL VS JOE DUARTE WONT COMPLETE 3 FULL ROUNDS
@ 1.59
WIN 44.00- JOE DUARTE > JORGE GURGEL
@ 2.10
LOSS 70.00- DANILLO VILLEFORT < NATE JAMES
@ 1.29
LOSS 80.00- DANNY CASTILLO < JACOB VOLKMANN
@ 1.87
WIN 52.17 DONALD CERRONE > RAFAEL OLIVEIRA
@ 1.87
WIN 137.50 SETH PETRUZELLI > RICCO RODRUIGUEZ
@ 3.75
WIN 48.00 RAFAEL CALVALCANTE > YOEL ROMERO
@ 1.80
WIN 78.00 PAT HEALY > MAXIMO BLANCO
@ 2.20
WIN 30.77 KING MO > ROGER GRACIE
@ 1.77
WIN 75.00 KING MO > ROGER GRACIE
@ 1.83
WIN 41.60 JAKE ELLENBERGER > JAKE SHIELDS
@ 2.60
LOSS 70.00 JONATHAN BROOKINS < ERIK KOCH
@ 2.60
WIN 96.00 LANCE BENOIST > MATT RIDDLE
@ 2.60
Loss 40.00 JOE WARREN < ALEXIS VILA
@ 1.59
WIN 22.22 JOSH KOSCHECK > MATT HUGHES
@ 1.22
WIN 18.52 NATE DIAZ > TAKANORI GOMI
@ 1.37
LOSS 90.00 NICK RING < TIM BOETSCH
@ 2.30
LOSS 80.00 LUIS ALBERTO NOGUEIRA < ED WEST
@ 1.44
WIN 14.29 TONY FERGUSON > AARON RILEY
@ 1.29
LOSS 55.00 SHINYA AOKI > ROB MCCULLOUGH
@ 5.00
LOSS 30.00 WILSON REIS < EDUARDO DANTAS
@ 1.91
WIN 43.75 YVES EDWARDS > RAFAELLO OLIVEIRA
@ 1.62
LOSS 40.00 MAC DANZIG < MATT WIMAN
@ 2.75
LOSS 40.00 PAT BERRY < STEFAN STRUVE
@ 1.50
WIN 54.00 ANTHONY JOHNSON > CHARLIE BRENNEMAN
@ 1.54
WIN 42.86 CHAEL SONNEN > BRIAN STANN
@ 1.36
WIN 21.15 STIPE MIOCIC > JOEY BELTRAN
@ 1.38
WIN 15.09 CHAEL SONNEN > BRIAN STANN
@ 1.35
WIN 26.67 FRANKIE EDGAR > GRAY MAYNARD
@ 1.67
WIN 29.41 JOSE ALDO > KENNY FLORIAN
@ 1.29
LOSS 60.00 DENNIS SIVER < DONALD CERRONE
@ 3.40
WIN 30.00 BART PALASZEWSKI > TYSON GRIFFIN
@ 4.00
LOSS 35.00 DANIEL DOWNES < RAMSEY NIJEM
@ 2.55
WIN 24.00 FRANCIS CARMONT > CHRIS CAMOZZI
@ 2.20
LOSS 10.00 GEORGE ROOP < HATSU HIOKI
@ 4.00
LOSS 25.00 GEORGE ROOP < HATSU HIOKI
@ 4.25
WIN 33.33 CLIFFORD STARKS > DUSTIN JACOBY
@ 1.74
WIN 8.33 CLIFFORD STARKS > DUSTIN JACOBY
@ 1.83
WIN 76.19 NICK DIAZ > BJ PENN
@ 1.95
WIN 14.81 RENAN BARAO > BRAD PICKETT
@ 1.74
WIN 19.42 THIAGO ALVES > PAPY ABEDI
@ 1.30
LOSS 100.00 JASON YOUNG < MICHIHIRO OMIGAWA
@ 2.80
WIN 33.33 THIAGO ALVES > PAPY ABEDI
@ 1.33
WIN 11.54 MARK MUNOZ > CHRIS LEBEN
@ 1.38
WIN 26.67 MARK MUNOZ > CHRIS LEBEN
@ 1.44
WIN 63.00 BEN HENDERSON > CLAY GUIDA
@ 1.35
LOSS 50.00 CAIN VELASQUEZ < JUNIOR DOS SANTOS
@ 1.62
LOSS 35.00 BEN SAUNDERS < DOUGLAS LIMA
@ 1.80
LOSS 75.00 KID YAMAMOTO < DERREN UYENOYAMA
@ 1.27
WIN 195.00 EDUARDO DANTAS > ALEXIS VILA
@ 3.60
DRAW 10.00 ERIC PRINDLE = THIAGO SANTOS
@ 3.30
WIN 43.75 JOHN DODSON > T.J.DILLASHAW
@ 2.75
WIN 23.00 JOHN ALBERT > DUSTIN PAGUE
@ 3.30
WIN 51.00 MICHAEL BISPING > JASON MILLER
@ 1.57
WIN 12.12 MARK BOCEK > NIK LENTZ
@ 1.61
WIN 10.53 YVES JABOUIN > WALEL WATSON
@ 1.53
WIN 78.00 ANTONIO ROGERIO NOGUEIRA > TITO ORTIZ
@ 1.54
LOSS 25.00 LYOTO MACHIDA < JON JONES
@ 4.75
LOSS 40.00 JORGE MASVIDAL < GILBERT MELENDEZ
@ 4.00
WIN 21.05 KJ NOONS > BILLY EVANGELISTA
@ 1.53
LOSS 75.00 JUSTIN WILCOX < CAROS FODOR
@ 1.44
PROP: WIN 25.71 CHRISTIANE SANTOS > HIROKO YAMANAKA UNDER 2 RDS.
@ 1.57
-----------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------
LOSS 20.00 NAM PHAN < JIM HETTES
@ 1.56
LOSS 10.00 SEAN PIERSON < DONG HYUN KIM
@ 4.50
WIN 65.38 ALEXANDER GUSTAFFSON > VLADIMIR MATUYUSHENKO
@ 1.33
WIN 39.00 JOHNY HENDRICKS > JOHN FITCH
@ 2.95
WIN 22.22 ROSS PEARSON > JUNIOR ASSUNCAO
@ 1.44
LOSS 60.00 BROCK LESNAR < ALISTAR OVEREEM
@ 2.50
LOSS 10.00 TYLER STINSON < TAREC SAFFIEDINE
@ 4.00
LOSS 55.00 LORENZ LARKIN < KING MO
@ 5.00
WIN 38.75 NAH SHON BURRELL > JAMES TERRY
@ 2.55
WIN 50.00 YURI ALCANTARA > MICHIHIRO OMIGAWA
@ 1.50
WIN 56.52 VITOR BELFORT > ANTHONY JOHNSON
@ 1.87
WIN 14.81 JOSH NEER > DUANE LUDWIG
@ 1.74
LOSS 160.00 KAMAL SHALORUS < HABIB NURMAGOMEDOV
@ 1.87
LOSS 50.00 JIM MILLER > MELVIN GUILLARD
@ 2.55
------------------------------------------------------
Graph- 153 events
------------------------------------------------------
LOSS 55.00 JOHN EINEMO < MIKE RUSSOW
@ 2.30
WIN 25.00 CHAEL SONNEN > MICHAEL BISPING
@ 1.25
LOSS 15.00 DUSTIN JACOBY < CHRIS CAMOZZI
@ 2.40
WIN 16.67 CUB SWANSON > GEORGE ROOP
@ 1.83
WIN 37.84 RASHAD EVANS > PHIL DAVIS
@ 1.54
LOSE 145.93 ALEX CACERES EDWIN FIGUEROA
@ 1.95
WIN 13.75 CARLOS CONDIT NICK DIAZ
@ 2.75
WIN 40.00 FABRICIO WERDUM > ROY NELSON
@ 1.67
LOSE 70.00 MIKE PIERCE < JOSH KOSCHECK
@ 3.05
WIN 47.62 RENAN BARAO > SCOTT JORGENSEN
@ 1.48
LOSE 30.00 BERNARDO MAGALHAES < TIM MEANS
@ 1.78
LOSE 25.00 DIEGO SANCHEZ < JAKE ELLENBERGER
@ 4.00
WIN 29.00 JONATHAN BROOKINS > CARLOS ROCHA
@ 1.44
LOSE 130.00 DAVE HERMAN < STEFAN STRUVE
@ 1.83
LOSE 135.00 AARON SIMPSON < RONNY MARKES
@ 1.87
Was up 280 units since November 2010 when last calculated, probably significantly less after the last 2 events :/Comment -
175$ Anthony Pettis > Joe Lauzon @ 1.4 - will do a write up later onComment -
26$ Vaughan Lee > Kid Yamamoto @ 4.00Comment -
I like Lee as well.Comment -
Added another $20 to Vaughan Lee- for a total of 46$ on Vaughan Lee @ 4.00
Yeah, kid is still dangerous but he's looked awful lately.. He's been training at a high level for all his adult life & has started to slow down. He's getting old too. I expect Lee to get trip takedowns and win rounds 2 and 3 on cardio- Line should be closer to 3.0, as the movement has shown.Comment -
26$ Ryan Bader > Rampage Jackson @ 3.10 - Rampage looked awful and was rehydrating immediately after weighing in, not a good sign if it gets past round 1.
Parlay: Fukuda, Mizugaki, Henderson, Pettis. 20$ to make 92$
Added another 40$ on Pettis @ 1.42.
Sorry, no time for a full write up on this one- skiing this weekend. Good Luck everyone!
Comment -
UFC 144 Total Profit +243.67.
Went 3-0 on straight bets and 0-1 on my parlay... that's more like itComment -
lucKO give yourself a nice pat on the back, this card was not good for most of us! Smart play avoiding both Rampage and Okami, myself like the rest of the ppl here thought they were the biggest locks on the card at least before the weigh ins :S I'll be sure to stay tuned to more of your predictions for upcoming fights
Comment -
Appreciate it guys. I almost always fade guys that miss weight, especially by that much. I'd advise all of you to do the same, as it seems like the lines arn't really affected by it. Anyone who's cut significant weight knows what a toll it takes on you, and to miss it that bad means something went very wrong = very bad cardio.
For UFC on FX mighty mouse @ 1.31 looks like good value, still gotta watch some tape though.. & the line hasn't even been released by my bookie :/Comment -
Man, I should probably start betting small like this, too, so my entire week isn't based on how I did on the UFC card lol
Even when I have winning days, I'm so stressed by the end of the card.
I'm afraid I'm gonna have a heart attack watching UFC before I'm 30 lol- i can hear my heart pounding so loud and fast sometimes... i risk too much- so much so that if i have an off day, it really hurts me. thankfully i avoided that this time around and have only really experienced it once so far. been able to dig my ass out of a hole a couple times.Comment -
I don't know about that man, you won't be successful long-term if you're risking that much on a single event. Even if you're picks are solid you can still have strings of constant losses just due to variation (see my first bets of the thread)- especially true if you're making quick bets based on immediate results,Comment -
& On that note, my total record since I started the thread is 6-8. Net loss of -$91.40
I expect to do quite a lot better in the coming events- I feel I analysed the Dave Herman & and the Tim Means fights incorrectly, but otherwise I feel pretty confident in predicting how things would go. Quite a few close decisions with the Caceres, Pierce, Simpson & Diego fights.Comment -
I agree re: Caceres and Diego but totally disagree re: Pierce and Simpson - Pierce was unable to do anything to a disinterested Koscheck and Simpson rocked Markes but was unable to finish. The minute in which he had him rocked is the only minute he won in all 15 mins. Markes was fighting with a broken hand (he revealed) and Simpson couldn't really do anything to him. Especially not after he woke up after being rocked in the first round. If Pierce vs Koscheck and Markes vs Simpson happened 10 times, Koscheck and Markes would win 9 times.
Caceres was totally robbed, and I thought Diego should have gotten a 10-8 for the third round, making it a Draw. Those were the right plays. I knew I was right in liking Diego at those odds. Ellenberger didn't deserve to be that big a favorite. It was crazy. He barely won two rounds, and was completely dominated for one. Totally not worth -400. Not even -260. Diego came real close, but he wasn't smart. He went for the stoppage rather than going for the choke. Getting the choke and stealing the fight at the end of the third round would have been classic.Comment -
Very solid picks and points LucKO, you are in loss until now, but Caceres vs Figueroa was totally bad lucky.
I am sure you will make a good profit in the next events, keep sharing your thoughs
Comment -
Thanks Digo, will do.
Gabe- if you're self admittedly risking too much it really doesn't matter how 'way up' you are.. Even if your picks are solid the swings will take you to 0 eventually.
& claiming Markes and Kos would win 9/10 is just hindsight. Totally irrelevant.Comment -
It takes time to understand that concept for some of us...Comment -
Only way I could go to 0 is if I lose big on every card for the remainder of the year, and that's highly unlikely given I haven't even had back-to-back losing cards.Comment -
That's because there is no way you can. How could you possibly see me going to 0 by continuing to bet like I have been? I personally don't see any way I could possibly get to 0. Only way is for all my bets for the remainder of the year to lose. That's not likely to happen. Once in a while shit goes awry and I have a losing week, but I've never had a losing month.
Anyway, you're not even making sense to me. You must think I've only made a couple hundred bucks betting UFC.Comment -
lolComment -
haaaaaaaaaaaComment -
Hahahaha jessssusComment -
$60.8 Aaron Rosa > James Tehuna @ 3.40
Rosa has started to take training seriously, and has made huge improvements to his game since he quit his full time job as a delivery driver. He has better cardio, better boxing technique, and better subs and sweeps- but most importantly an excellent chin. He stays active in the clinch & should tire Tehuna out by being the more active fighter.
Tehuna packs serious power & pushes opponents to the cage to land power takedowns. His cardio has always been garbage though. I think this play has decent value- Rosa by late submission.
On a side note, I've switched to half kelly criterion for my bet amounts.Comment -
You were using full Kelly for MMA?
Comment -
haha no of course notComment -
$190.00 Shawn Jordan > Oli Thompson @ 1.50
Can't believe Jordan opened at -130, I would have maxed it. Thompson is sloppy everywhere, makes amateur mistakes striking & on the mat. Jordan should outstrike him & take him down at will. I feel pretty safe playing this as jordan has a very good chin- I don't think it's possible for oli to clean up his striking enough at wolfslair to get a win hereComment
