UFC 121 10/23 - Brock vs Cain

[Conan]

brock is a powerhouse but cain is a solid in all the same ariasm liking lesnar is it should be a good fight like the carwin fight im liking him at +180 all day

[GoldRush7]

I do think Cain has a decent chance, but I agree Lesnar should be favored more.

Having said that, I think part of the reason so many people are backing Cain is because his trainers at AKA speak of him as if he were some kind of MMA demigod. From the things they say you'd think Jesus and Fedor had a baby and named him Cain Velasquez.

Lol good point

[brooks85]

I couldnt imagine ever backing a fighter because of something a trainer/partner says(unless it is negative) but Im sure people do it.

[syn^]

Lesnar didn't just get beat standing with carwin. In all of his UFC fights (randy, mir, carwin) lesnar has had the weaker stand up. If an aging couture can throw hands and connect on lesnar why won't Cain be able to? and unlike Mir and Randy I think Cain can keep the fight were ever he wants whether it be standing and out boxing lesnar or putting lesnar on his back and relentlessly pound him. And you doubters who say cain can't finish, realize that he has tko'd 7 out of 8 fighters in his career and he will have 5 rounds now instead of 3. Lesnar is strong but he is no god either... if he was so overwhelmingly strong that everyone knew this fight wouldn't be close why would the lines say differently. Go with the better fighter here.

[dooman14]

i will probably bet on cain i hope someone beats that jarhead soon

[dooman14]

all cain all day brock is gonna lose

[dooman14]

i wish it was a better line on cain to make some good points

[JuicedUp]

almost here.

[36mafia]

cain:
Height 6 ft 1 in (1.85 m)[1]
Weight 238 lb (108 kg; 17.0 st)[2]
Division 265
Reach 77.0 in (196 cm)

brock:
Height 6 ft 3 in (1.91 m)[2]
Weight 265 lb (120 kg; 18.9 st)
Division Heavyweight
Reach 81.0 in (206 cm)[3]

amazed to see brock has the reach advantage. 4" is a lot of ground to cover for a shorter fighter.
was leaning cain now its a no play

[lasker]

Brock always has the reach advantage.

[GoldenYAK]

Yea the reach isn't that big of a deal, especially when cain already has such a big advantage on the feet with his quickness and technique.

[jacktheknife]

Brock always has the reach advantage.

Not against Shane, unless you count half an inch.

[Brian891]

Anybody got views on tonights bellator card?

[lasker]

Anybody got views on tonights bellator card?

I definitely expect Askren to win, and I actually think Frausto and Huerta both have decent chances to pull the upset.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Crazy to hear Tito talk about getting the title back, just like Chuck Liddellhas before. These guys think they are still in line for the title

[Vaughany]

I didnt think Frausto was fighting on tonights card?!

[lasker]

I didnt think Frausto was fighting on tonights card?!

my bad, it's next week. didn't bother checking the date when i placed the bet

[Vaughany]

my bad, it's next week. didn't bother checking the date when i placed the bet

ha I only it say it because I'm waiting to see if her line gets even better! Im hoping it turns out to be like that Coenen Kauffman fight (in terms of big female underdog winning, not Frausto winning by sub like Coenen cos thts not gonna happen!)

[Likes_to_win]

Put your money on Lesnar. He has the reach advantage which will negate Cain's striking just enough so that Lesnar can take him down and tko him. Even though Cain beat Nog, imo he's not that strong of a puncher. Cain is fast and technical, but Brock will be able to eat some punches and kicks. Carwin and Mir are much stronger than Cain. Lesnar wins in round 2 or 3.

[Jordan23]

Cain is going to win this fight.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

no contest for this card???

[Educ8d Degener8]

Put your money on Lesnar. He has the reach advantage which will negate Cain's striking just enough so that Lesnar can take him down and tko him. Even though Cain beat Nog, imo he's not that strong of a puncher. Cain is fast and technical, but Brock will be able to eat some punches and kicks. Carwin and Mir are much stronger than Cain. Lesnar wins in round 2 or 3.

I'm still undecided on the fight as of now, but I think you may be selling Cain a bit short here. IMO (and we know what opinions are like, so take it with a grain of salt), Lesnar's stand-up is so rudimentary in comparison to Cain's that it nullifies any type of reach advantage he may have. Cain's head movement and well, movement in general may keep Lesnar at bay -- Sort of a bigger, HW version of a Frankie Edgar gameplan... stick n move, stick n move.

And IF Cain lands a couple of vicious leg kicks on Lesnar and takes out his tree trunk base, then Lesnar's shots will be all that less explosive, taking away his greatest asset/advantage... Though, Cain will have to be careful with any kicks, as to not open himself up to an easy takedown.

Also, keep in mind, Brock had an even bigger (if memory serves correct) size advantage over Randy, and Randy was giving him a good go for a bit. Granted, Cain may not be the gameplanner of Randy's caliber.

I'm still torn on this one, but figured I'd drop my $0.02 as they stand now.

BOL

[36mafia]

if cain decides to stick and move, he will need to get the timing and spacing of the striking down as fast as possible. and that will be difficult with brocks reach advantage
when cain does get inside striking perimeter, he will have to deal with brock's orbital bone crushing power in those fists of his

the last time we saw brock fight, he pulled off a submission win. we'd be stupid to think he hasnt improved his striking

[Educ8d Degener8]

if cain decides to stick and move, he will need to get the timing and spacing of the striking down as fast as possible. and that will be difficult with brocks reach advantage
when cain does get inside striking perimeter, he will have to deal with brock's orbital bone crushing power in those fists of his

the last time we saw brock fight, he pulled off a submission win. we'd be stupid to think he hasnt improved his striking

I don't disagree with this at all, as I imagine Brock may have more surprises for us.

That being said, I don't think a few weeks training with Pat Barry is gonna turn Brock Lesnar's striking acumen to elite status yet.

Still can't decide on this one personally.

[shady610]

brock wins and so does hammill

[Educ8d Degener8]

I'm a Paulo Thiago fan, but I may have to lean Sanchez here...

He's back with Jackson's camp, and he says he's going back to his wrestling roots:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyO_TZ5NxnY

Jackson schemed gameplan based in Diego's grappling roots could spell trouble for Thiago.

Still haven't placed a wager yet though...

BOL

[Vaughany]

UFC 121 Betting with Frank Mir...Good breakdown by the man himself...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NaxpFhosTAo&feature=player_embedded

[rocky mattioli]

performity off mmajunkie:



"I believe this size and corresponding strength advantage helps to compound a grappling advantage. While Velasquez is a decorated wrestler, Lesnar's wrestling pedigree is inarguably superior: Velasquez was a two-time All-American, Lesnar a four time All-American. Velasquez's best Division I Championship finishes were fourth and fifth; Lesnar's are first and second. Velasquez lost seventeen times in three years in Division I, Lesnar only five in four years. Through a combination of superior skill and especially superior strength and size, I expect Lesnar to have a moderate-to-significant wrestling edge in the fight, especially so because wrestlers are rarely comfortable on their backs, so assuming Lesnar does have enough of an edge to get Velasquez down, it's extremely unlikely Velasquez will be able to do anything once there."

read the whole breakdown...very compelling..

http://mmajunkie.com/news/21127/performifys-picks-for-ufc-121.mma

i think this breakdown is thorough enough for me to start considering some ways to initiate some brock action....well written piece...

[Kaladarus]

I'm a Paulo Thiago fan, but I may have to lean Sanchez here...

He's back with Jackson's camp, and he says he's going back to his wrestling roots:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyO_TZ5NxnY

Jackson schemed gameplan based in Diego's grappling roots could spell trouble for Thiago.

Still haven't placed a wager yet though...

BOL

Surprised there hasn't been much talk about this fight. I agree with you and think Diego is a good play. Diego can take a beating, has good submission defense and should be able to take the fight to the ground if it's not working for him on the feet. This should secure him the victory.

[vassman86]

I've been leaning toward Cain ever since the fight was announced because I really feel that he has the speed and power to KO Lesnar. But what worries me is that, looking back at the Carwin-Lesnar fight, when Carwin caught Lesnar with a few punches, Brock simply covered up with his arms and was unhittable! His biceps and forearms are ginormous and work as an excellent shield; it's really hard to slip punches through that kind of defense. That's why Carwin didn't get the TKO nor ref stoppage.

Also, Brock looks to be in the best shape of his life. He's cut a lot of body fat with his new dieting and what not, and looks pretty lean now. This will be a game-time decision for me.

[36mafia]

performity off mmajunkie:



"I believe this size and corresponding strength advantage helps to compound a grappling advantage. While Velasquez is a decorated wrestler, Lesnar's wrestling pedigree is inarguably superior: Velasquez was a two-time All-American, Lesnar a four time All-American. Velasquez's best Division I Championship finishes were fourth and fifth; Lesnar's are first and second. Velasquez lost seventeen times in three years in Division I, Lesnar only five in four years. Through a combination of superior skill and especially superior strength and size, I expect Lesnar to have a moderate-to-significant wrestling edge in the fight, especially so because wrestlers are rarely comfortable on their backs, so assuming Lesnar does have enough of an edge to get Velasquez down, it's extremely unlikely Velasquez will be able to do anything once there."

read the whole breakdown...very compelling..

http://mmajunkie.com/news/21127/performifys-picks-for-ufc-121.mma

i think this breakdown is thorough enough for me to start considering some ways to initiate some brock action....well written piece...

performity is by far my favorite mma analyst. he is the guy that got me into mma wagering and sports capping all together

[36mafia]

I'm a Paulo Thiago fan, but I may have to lean Sanchez here...

He's back with Jackson's camp, and he says he's going back to his wrestling roots:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyO_TZ5NxnY

Jackson schemed gameplan based in Diego's grappling roots could spell trouble for Thiago.

Still haven't placed a wager yet though...

BOL

boring as dominant wrestling based gameplans are, they make money

[westerner]

Something to consider that most of you probably don't know:

The best wrestler Cain has ever fought is Jake O'Brien.

Just as with Lesnar's fight vs Herring, its easy to keep your energy up when you're fighting poor wrestlers, staying on top of them. Cain has never really faced serious physical resistance in the cage and he will this time. I don't think his gas is 50% as good as people believe it to be. Dealing with Lesnar's reach and strength will just exacerbate this.

Cain has better wrestling and striking technique, but you need strength and energy to execute. He will be the dangerous man early in the fight, able to catch Lesnar with his speed. Once they settle in I think its Lesnars fight to lose. Brock's got a ton of experience in big fights against tough and physical opponents, and his grappling is far better. Even though I'm sure Cain is a better wrestler I see the gap on the floor being much bigger. Brock's JJ is very legit and his reach helps his chokes even more.

[westerner]

boring as dominant wrestling based gameplans are, they make money

This isn't really true, I'd say boxing is the dominant thing right now. Edgar is a wrestler but his whole title run was based off of his boxing, same with ASilva, and to a big extent Shogun. GSP's wrestling only works because of his boxing, take that away and Thiago Alves torches him. Maynard is another guy on a title run leaning on his boxing and there are many more. Aldo is another. There's also Cruz...

performity is by far my favorite mma analyst. he is the guy that got me into mma wagering and sports capping all together

Considering Cain is only about 4 yrs removed from his wrestling career which included competing in the same period as 3 of the greatest amateur wrestlers in history, and undersized the entire time wrestling a much better average athlete than in MMA, I would REALLY hesitate to put much stock in a guy who says Brock has a clear wrestling advantage.

Brock hasn't wrestled in 10 years, and while he was good he relied a lot on straight power takedowns and there wasn't nearly the level of competition as when Cain was wrestling. Also he got beat by Neal who would have probably been outwrestled by Mocco and the other big names that were around when Cain was competing. Add that to Brock racking up the injuries from the pro wrestling days and you can't say that Brock is a better wrestler by any means... unless you've seen both of them in training.

[Vaughany]

This isn't really true, I'd say boxing is the dominant thing right now. Edgar is a wrestler but his whole title run was based off of his boxing, same with ASilva, and to a big extent Shogun. GSP's wrestling only works because of his boxing, take that away and Thiago Alves torches him. Maynard is another guy on a title run leaning on his boxing and there are many more. Aldo is another. There's also Cruz...



Considering Cain is only about 4 yrs removed from his wrestling career which included competing in the same period as 3 of the greatest amateur wrestlers in history, and undersized the entire time wrestling a much better average athlete than in MMA, I would REALLY hesitate to put much stock in a guy who says Brock has a clear wrestling advantage.

Brock hasn't wrestled in 10 years, and while he was good he relied a lot on straight power takedowns and there wasn't nearly the level of competition as when Cain was wrestling. Also he got beat by Neal who would have probably been outwrestled by Mocco and the other big names that were around when Cain was competing. Add that to Brock racking up the injuries from the pro wrestling days and you can't say that Brock is a better wrestler by any means... unless you've seen both of them in training.

I agree, its not all about wrestling, more specifically with regard to boxing, it's the fact that guys like Edgar know how to use angles, good footwork and head movement (speed) which not many fighters in UFC are proficient in.