UFC 121 10/23 - Brock vs Cain

Vaughany · 10-17-10, 01:52 PM

Shields by decision will be my big play for the night me thinks!

jacktheknife · 10-17-10, 06:57 PM

I'd watch out. If Kampmann and Pyle's last fights are any indication, Randy's turning out some really smart fighters.

Pratik · 10-17-10, 10:34 PM

I would hop on Schaub he started out at +190 but now is around 160 i think thats one dog to take. Although Kampmann looks like a threat hes most likely going to lose just look at all the opponents Jake Shields has fought. Shields has faced some damn good strikers and they have all fallen to him. He'll grind this one out and then probably get a title shot or at least a #1 contenders fight.

ndntarget · 10-17-10, 11:04 PM

jake wins by dec..............will lay and pray and throw a few a weak punches on top. kampman wont have a scratch on him after the match

Socrates · 10-18-10, 12:00 AM

Originally posted by JuicedUp

Less than a week away.

Damn, what's that chicks name? She's ridiculously hot.

Kaladarus · 10-18-10, 12:10 AM

Originally posted by Pratik

I would hop on Schaub he started out at +190 but now is around 160 i think thats one dog to take. Although Kampmann looks like a threat hes most likely going to lose just look at all the opponents Jake Shields has fought. Shields has faced some damn good strikers and they have all fallen to him. He'll grind this one out and then probably get a title shot or at least a #1 contenders fight.

I agree, took the Shaub line at +180 and it seems like it's stopped moving around +160 like you said. Shields by decision looks like a decent play.

sideloaded · 10-18-10, 12:22 AM

Think cain is my only play BIG!

Pratik · 10-18-10, 09:23 AM

One fight that i advise no one to bet on is the Diego Sanchez vs Paulo Thiago fight cuz that fight is like a coin flip. Sanchez can keep pressure on Thiago for the full 3 rounds but Thiago throws some crazy haymakers which can pack a punch. Also on the ground I would give it to Sanchez; however, his take-down ability is pretty terrible.

jacktheknife · 10-18-10, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by sideloaded

Think cain is my only play BIG!

Going the opposite. Have at you!

GoldRush7 · 10-18-10, 11:05 PM

the more i think about it I like Lesnar even more and more. The odds are so attractive for him I'm considering making an enormous play on him

THE_LOCKSMITH · 10-18-10, 11:13 PM

cain velasquez +112
brock lesnar -142

martin kampmann +175
jake shields -215

diego sanchez -115
paulo thiago -115

tito ortiz +145
matt hamill -175

brendan schaub +150
gabriel gonzaga -180

ryan jensen +200
court mcgee -250

tom lawlor +135
patrick cote -165

paul taylor +145
sam stout -175

daniel roberts -155
mike guymon +125

dongi yang -145
chris camozzi +115

jon madsen -250
gilbert yvel +200

dooman14 · 10-18-10, 11:57 PM

bet the house on cain well neighbors house anyways

36mafia · 10-19-10, 12:08 AM

cain gonna make it rain

Vrakas · 10-19-10, 06:46 AM

i wonder if tito will be able to go 3 rounds.the first round should be close.

vassman86 · 10-19-10, 06:55 AM

It might sound crazy, but I think Hamill is the safest bet on this card. Tito's last fight was his rematch against Griffin (when he finally returned to the UFC), and he didn't look anything like himself that time even though he claimed to be in the best shape of his life. It's all about building hype. Maybe Tito hasn't realized it yet, but he's just a stepping stone now. His last two wins came against an aging Ken Shamrock back in 2006.

Here's a quick review of what Shamrock's accomplished in his last 12 fights (including two losses to Tito): 3 wins (2009, 2004, 2001), and 9 losses (1 KO, 7 TKOs, 1 dec).

So again, I just thought I'd share this information with you guys: Tito hasn't beaten anyone significant in the longest time, his last fight was over 11 months ago, he's been averaging about one fight per year over the past four years, and he's due for retirement.

Matt Hamill all the way!

ndntarget · 10-19-10, 07:27 AM

Originally posted by vassman86

It might sound crazy, but I think Hamill is the safest bet on this card. Tito's last fight was his rematch against Griffin (when he finally returned to the UFC), and he didn't look anything like himself that time even though he claimed to be in the best shape of his life. It's all about building hype. Maybe Tito hasn't realized it yet, but he's just a stepping stone now. His last two wins came against an aging Ken Shamrock back in 2006.

Here's a quick review of what Shamrock's accomplished in his last 12 fights (including two losses to Tito): 3 wins (2009, 2004, 2001), and 9 losses (1 KO, 7 TKOs, 1 dec).

So again, I just thought I'd share this information with you guys: Tito hasn't beaten anyone significant in the longest time, his last fight was over 11 months ago, he's been averaging about one fight per year over the past four years, and he's due for retirement.

Matt Hamill all the way!

yeah def hamill win as tito has turned in to a big bitch the last few years.

Vaughany · 10-19-10, 11:24 AM

Skybet are offering Brock by TKO/KO at +175, Velasquez by decision at +650, and Velasquez by TKO/KO at +350. How does this compare with any other sites offering prop bets such as 5dimes???

KCJMAC · 10-19-10, 11:36 AM

5 Dimes:
C.Velasquez wins by submission +1058
Any other result -2175
C.Velasquez wins by TKO/KO +275
Any other result -395
B.Lesnar wins by submission +375
Any other result -565
B.Lesnar wins by TKO/KO +177
Any other result -250

KCJMAC · 10-19-10, 11:37 AM

Velasquez by dec is +445 on 5 Dimes

Vaughany · 10-19-10, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by KCJMAC

5 Dimes:
C.Velasquez wins by submission +1058
Any other result -2175
C.Velasquez wins by TKO/KO +275
Any other result -395
B.Lesnar wins by submission +375
Any other result -565
B.Lesnar wins by TKO/KO +177
Any other result -250

Cheers bro, so Lesnar TKO/KO is only one that's not better on Skybet. Im considering a Lesnar by TKO/KO and Velasquez by decision straddle. Gonna wait and see what the odds are on Paddypower once they bring them out tomorrow.

terpkeg · 10-19-10, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by vassman86

It might sound crazy, but I think Hamill is the safest bet on this card. Tito's last fight was his rematch against Griffin (when he finally returned to the UFC), and he didn't look anything like himself that time even though he claimed to be in the best shape of his life. It's all about building hype. Maybe Tito hasn't realized it yet, but he's just a stepping stone now. His last two wins came against an aging Ken Shamrock back in 2006.

Here's a quick review of what Shamrock's accomplished in his last 12 fights (including two losses to Tito): 3 wins (2009, 2004, 2001), and 9 losses (1 KO, 7 TKOs, 1 dec).

So again, I just thought I'd share this information with you guys: Tito hasn't beaten anyone significant in the longest time, his last fight was over 11 months ago, he's been averaging about one fight per year over the past four years, and he's due for retirement.

Matt Hamill all the way!

I couldnt agree more. Hamill will be my largest play, I am just waiting on line. Tito has always been one dimensional and Hamill is not a good matchup, even for the Tito of 3+ years ago that fought Rashad. Time and injuries have slowed him considerably. Hamill looks better each time out imo. I see almost no way that Tito wins this fight unless there is a fluke injury, dq or something along those lines.

-160 at 5d may be the way to go now.

urge2kill · 10-19-10, 01:40 PM

According to 5Dime's Not Brock by Sub line he's gonna hit a sub about 15% of the time. That seems way high to me.

36mafia · 10-19-10, 04:16 PM

Originally posted by urge2kill

According to 5Dime's Not Brock by Sub line he's gonna hit a sub about 15% of the time. That seems way high to me.

brocks sub over carwin was very unexpected to say the least

maybe the books think brocks got another one in him

Vaughany · 10-19-10, 04:33 PM

Anyone else confused by Cain suddenly becoming Mexican? Isnt he American!

lasker · 10-19-10, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Anyone else confused by Cain suddenly becoming Mexican? Isnt he American!

He's Mexican-American. He is also a Mexican citizen, as his parents are both Mexican immigrants. He has that Brown Pride tattoo and his Latino identity is clearly very important to him, so I think it's fine for the UFC to be promoting the fight from that angle.

Shane · 10-19-10, 06:01 PM

I like Hamill, Schaub, and Madsen a lot.

lasker · 10-19-10, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by Shane

I like Hamill, Schaub, and Madsen a lot.

I'm with you, I think all three are winners and probably the three best bets on the card

KCJMAC · 10-19-10, 06:29 PM

Definitely like Hamill and Madsen, but not sure about Schaub.

Gonzaga is 7 and 4 in the UFC, and his losses were to the following:
* Randy Couture for the HW title (and if I recall Gonzaga was winning that fight until he got his nose broken via head butt duriing a slam.)
* Werdum (who has a recent quality win over that Russian fellow).
* Carwin (who nearly pulled the same finish on the current champion).
* Junior dos Santos (who many think will be a future champion).

Of those 4, who would Schaub beat? I think none of them at this stage in his career.

Gonzaga's UFC wins were all finishes, and Roy Nelson made it clear that Schaub can be finished quickly.

I think the better bet here would be on the fight not going the distance. Gonzaga's never gone to decision in 16 fights, and Schaub's never gone to decision in 6 fights. 5 Dimes has this prop at -400 (80%) right now, but I think this is closer to 95%.

syn^ · 10-19-10, 06:43 PM

Cain is going to destroy lesnar without a doubt. He will put the same beating carwin put on him but for 5 rounds (if necessary) instead of one.

Educ8d Degener8 · 10-19-10, 11:44 PM

Originally posted by KCJMAC

... not sure about Schaub.

...

I think the better bet here would be on the fight not going the distance. Gonzaga's never gone to decision in 16 fights, and Schaub's never gone to decision in 6 fights. 5 Dimes has this prop at -400 (80%) right now, but I think this is closer to 95%.

I was just about to post that prop, as it's quite intriguing...

Although, I was certain Kongo and Travis Browne wouldn't go to the judges either...

BobbyXxX · 10-20-10, 01:23 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Anyone else confused by Cain suddenly becoming Mexican? Isnt he American!

yeah the whole mexican hype thing is a bit much...can we make kos/gsp match a canadian rivalry?

MadTiger · 10-20-10, 05:14 AM

Originally posted by dooman14

bet the house on cain well neighbors house anyways

Hehe.

I am thinking that if Brock is going to get beat, it can happen with Cain. The last fight exposed Brock even more, and showed the way to beat that ass.

GoldRush7 · 10-20-10, 11:12 AM

I can't understand how anybody thinks cain is going to finish brock. Carwin has the most dangerous hands in the UFC and he couldn't do it. Lesnar is on a different level physically than anybody. He might be one of the biggest deuschbags there is but he's for real. There is no way in hell he loses to cain.

Pabinator · 10-20-10, 11:15 AM

I agree, Brock is just too strong, & he will show it Saturday

lasker · 10-20-10, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by GoldRush7

I can't understand how anybody thinks cain is going to finish brock. Carwin has the most dangerous hands in the UFC and he couldn't do it. Lesnar is on a different level physically than anybody. He might be one of the biggest deuschbags there is but he's for real. There is no way in hell he loses to cain.

I do think Cain has a decent chance, but I agree Lesnar should be favored more.

Having said that, I think part of the reason so many people are backing Cain is because his trainers at AKA speak of him as if he were some kind of MMA demigod. From the things they say you'd think Jesus and Fedor had a baby and named him Cain Velasquez.