UFC 219: Cyborg Vs. Holm | 30.12.2017 (Las Vegas, Nevada)

[Sirius]

Hmm that's an interesting idea. Apart from being Brazilian, what has Cyborg done to show low fight IQ in her fights that you've watched?

I think there is little to no strategy and fight IQ during a fight from Cyborg. Another poster mentioned how she is reckless but it's just the overall take I've always had.
I am not impressed by her performance in fights against poor competition also...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Turbo and Shagy nailed it all and more.

My summation, in short, is a younger guy on the rise Vs. an older guy on the decline. First fight on the card, I feel like the UFC wants Vettori to win, and this matchup favors him. Vettori ITD, U 2.5. Playing it straight though mostly, have a few hundred ($345) parlayed with Cyborg though (-350) at -115.

Also on
PARLAY (2 TEAMS)12/26/17 23:57 EST
Bet $ 100.00 to win $ 337.14Result: Pending
UFC 219 - Nevada USA
Holly Holm vs Cristiane Cyborg12/31/17 00:15 EST
Cristiane Cyborg -350

UFC 219 - Nevada USA
Edson Barboza vs Khabib Nurmagomedov12/30/17 23:45 EST
Edson Barboza +240


STRAIGHT WAGER12/26/17 23:57 EST
Bet $ 100.00 to win $ 240.00Result: Pending
UFC 219 - Nevada USA
Edson Barboza vs Khabib Nurmagomedov12/30/17 23:45 EST
Edson Barboza +240

I'm all about Cyborg and Barboza here. Let's get it!

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think there is little to no strategy and fight IQ during a fight from Cyborg. Another poster mentioned how she is reckless but it's just the overall take I've always had.
I have been not impressed by her performance in fights against poor competition also...

She can definitely be reckless at times.

What hasn't impressed you in her fights again poor competition? She has won every round in her MMA fights en route to finishes. In many of her fights against low level competition, she wins every minute of the bout.

[Sirius]

If Barboza wasn't Brazilian I'd take him + Holm in a parlay.
It's not hard to figure out what to do Vs. Khabib... The entire fight is not letting Khabib in close...IMO he should be able to keep him off and blast him easily with his athleticism...but I don't trust him to be able to do it.

Hope Khabib loses and gets bumped down the ladder a few ranking spots...

[Sirius]

Next question

[Sirius]

[Shagdogy]

I'm all about Cyborg and Barboza here. Let's get it!

Hugo do you think the value is on Barboza based on the line, or do you actually favor him to win?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo do you think the value is on Barboza based on the line, or do you actually favor him to win?

Have been thinking about that a lot recently. I think I actually favor him to win.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo do you think the value is on Barboza based on the line, or do you actually favor him to win?

That fight reminds me of a more extreme version of Whittaker vs. Jacare.

[Shagdogy]

Have been thinking about that a lot recently. I think I actually favor him to win.

Barboza's ability to fight from long range is key and he will have to be on his horse big time. He's good at it, and he has been able to do it against better competition than Khabib has faced in the UFC IMO.

Maybe I'm dumb but I find it super annoying that reliable sources don't go on record about whether this fight is 3 or 5 rounds. I've only ever read that this is a 3 rounder, but I wish I could read it easily on UFC.com or something. Am I missing something?

Anyway, I think the fact that this is a 3 rounder benefits Barboza. He clearly has the cardio to fight his game plan for 3 rounds. If he is successful early at sticking, moving, and keeping Khabib at bay, I think he will be able to continue it. I expect it to be close since there's no way he will open up fully for fear of the takedown, but even fighting reserved he should carry the striking.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Barboza's ability to fight from long range is key and he will have to be on his horse big time. He's good at it, and he has been able to do it against better competition than Khabib has faced in the UFC IMO.

Maybe I'm dumb but I find it super annoying that reliable sources don't go on record about whether this fight is 3 or 5 rounds. I've only ever read that this is a 3 rounder, but I wish I could read it easily on UFC.com or something. Am I missing something?

Anyway, I think the fact that this is a 3 rounder benefits Barboza. He clearly has the cardio to fight his game plan for 3 rounds. If he is successful early at sticking, moving, and keeping Khabib at bay, I think he will be able to continue it. I expect it to be close since there's no way he will open up fully for fear of the takedown, but even fighting reserved he should carry the striking.

100% it's a three round fight since it's not a Main Event or Title Fight.

[Shagdogy]

100% it's a three round fight since it's not a Main Event or Title Fight.

I just never trust the UFC. I'm still scarred by Dana White's proclamation that all ppv's would move to 9pm est, and their inconsistent use of the "all main events are 5 rounders" early on in the process.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I just never trust the UFC. I'm still scarred by Dana White's proclamation that all ppv's would move to 9pm est, and their inconsistent use of the "all main events are 5 rounders" early on in the process.

Have there been any inconsistencies in recent years? I can't recall any off the top.

[Shagdogy]

Have there been any inconsistencies in recent years? I can't recall any off the top.

I think it was one of the first few fights after they said every main event would be 5 rounds, one of them was 3 and I was like wtf you never know.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think it was one of the first few fights after they said every main event would be 5 rounds, one of them was 3 and I was like wtf you never know.

Always good to check.

[JIBBBY]

Main Card



Khabib
Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
vs
Edson
Barboza
"Junior"

RUSSIA
Country
BRAZIL

24-0-0
Record
19-4-0

33%
KO/TKO
58%

33%
SUB
5%

33%
DEC
37%

70 in
Height
71 in

155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs

70 in
Reach
75 in

40 in
Leg Reach
41 in




I think if you like Barboza you gotta go with this below, sub or ko..

1105 Barboza wins inside distance

+390

I just don't think Barboza can win a decision against the Russian grappler.. Striker vs Grappler, it usually ends up with a KO against the wrestler or the wrestler either gets the decision, or a rare pound out or submission win..

1111 Nurmagomedov wins by 3 round decision

+155

But then again since the straight odds are so good for Barboza it's hard just not to take him straight if you think he can win.. Could Edson win on points with boxing and footwork, keep the fight standing maybe for 3 rounds? I don't think so..

I do think if Khabib can't get the fight to the ground he'll knocked out standing....

UFC 219 - Lightweight 3 rounds - T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Sat 12/30		1101 Edson Barboza		+240	o2½ -120
11:30PM		1102 Khabib Nurmagomedov		-280	u2½ +100

Then you got this...

1139 Barboza (scorecards = no action)

+172

[turbozed]

Just realized that I have a ton of action on Cyborg. I got about 6u riding on props, ML, and parlays including her. Feeling super square but I just can't see Holly winning.

For anyone fading Cyborg, what is the #1 reason to bet against her?

[GunShard]

Just realized that I have a ton of action on Cyborg. I got about 6u riding on props, ML, and parlays including her. Feeling super square but I just can't see Holly winning.

For anyone fading Cyborg, what is the #1 reason to bet against her?

Cardio.

[ken10]

Barboza has horrible boxing. He’s good at kicking legs, sure. Khabib will probably force his way inside and muscle Barboza down. Good TDD doesn’t matter when you’re going against Khabib.

Khabib by GNP. First round TKO.

[ken10]

If you like Khabib, is it stupid to play it this way?=
Betting both
Khabib -280
Under 2.5 +105

If Khabib does get KOed (seems like only way he loses) you lose less juice than taking him straight

If he wins by decision you push

If he wins by tKo or sub (very likely) you win big

Chance of losing both bets if barboza wins a decision but pretty unlikely

[ken10]

^

I did that with Nate Diaz vs MJ and won big

Nate was +250 or +300 or something. Bet that and the over. I thought he would lose but wouldn’t get finished.

Ended up winning big when Nate won a decision

[Shagdogy]

^

I did that with Nate Diaz vs MJ and won big

Nate was +250 or +300 or something. Bet that and the over. I thought he would lose but wouldn’t get finished.

Ended up winning big when Nate won a decision

And you can end up losing big when you're on the wrong end of the thing you did not think would happen. In this case, only a 3 round fight, I think it's very possible that Barboza wins a decision. Khabib has proven pretty durable over his career, although he has always just abandoned standup and been successful in the wrestling when things get sticky. In this fight, I think it's very possible that if Barboza can stuff takedowns, he wins a decision. There's a good chance he never really opens up or takes risks because of the threat of Khabib's TDs, but if he fights conservative on the feet and carries a clear edge, he could win the decision.

[PaperTrail07]

Let down,,,maybe a little....but she is smart and got the TD and won the fight....she will win the volume game...Honestly its not THAT juicy....

Cyborg -3.5 -240---
Nurgamedov -3.5 -155
Cavillo -3.5 -110
Roundtree -3.5 NOT UP YET.......those are AMAZING lines IMO.....man...what am I missing here...Nurgamedov can EASILY get a 10-8 round...

Incredibly juicy, even by my standards and I bet a lot of favs. A few thoughts:

1) I wouldn't be too confident in Nurm. He fights at most once a year and this is his biggest test arguably ever.

2) I agree Rountree should win but think the line is about where it should be. I see more value on Vettori.

3) Love Calvillo but havent decided how much I like her in this matchup yet. Need to dig into that one. I recall feeling let down by her last contest.

[PaperTrail07]

EB is very skilled....but he is also a tad wild and will make a mistake..get taken down....and lost the fight..

[PaperTrail07]

She just does not respect her opponents.....bulldozes them....whats not to like about that

I think there is little to no strategy and fight IQ during a fight from Cyborg. Another poster mentioned how she is reckless but it's just the overall take I've always had.
I am not impressed by her performance in fights against poor competition also...

[Sato]

Ill add Calvillo by dec. (+135), Magny by dec. (+327), Magny ML (+140), Barboza by dec. (+650), Barboza ITD (+390), Barboza KO/TKO (+435).

[JIBBBY]

Ill add Calvillo by dec. (+135), Magny by dec. (+327), Magny ML (+140), Barboza by dec. (+650), Barboza ITD (+390), Barboza KO/TKO (+435).

These bets don't make mathematical sense when you can just take Barboza straight at +250, no? I'm trying to figure if there is more value playing it your way with all those Barboza props rather then just playing him straight? The only area you are not covered with the props is a draw..

[turbozed]

Small FYI

I put a freeplay bet on Lineker in the SBR Book. When the fight was cancelled, the freeplay doesn't automatically get refunded back to the SBR Book balance.

You have to contact Live help in order to get free play funds credited after a fight cancellation. They were quick about it. Takes like two minutes.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Small FYI

I put a freeplay bet on Lineker in the SBR Book. When the fight was cancelled, the freeplay doesn't automatically get refunded back to the SBR Book balance.

You have to contact Live help in order to get free play funds credited after a fight cancellation. They were quick about it. Takes like two minutes.

Good to know.

[WolfTicketDealer]

Cardio.

This might be the biggest false narrative in MMA. There really isn't anything that suggests Cyborg has bad cardio.

[JIBBBY]

This might be the biggest false narrative in MMA. There really isn't anything that suggests Cyborg has bad cardio.

She's never gone close to fighting 5 full rounds.. Cyborg carries alot of muscle... Brazilians are also typically known to be cardio challenged..

Holly Holm on the flip has proved she can go 5 rounds as she's done that in 2 of her last 3 fights.. She's also proved she can take a beating if necessary to go deep in fights.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Holly-Holm-75125

If Holy can get this fight into rounds 4 and 5 she might be able to stop a tired out Cyborg especially if her hands begin to drop.. Head kick time..

[PaperTrail07]

Cyborg has great cardio...just does not need to use it and knows when to hit the GAS imo....

She's never gone close to fighting 5 full rounds.. Cyborg carries alot of muscle... Brazilians are also typically known to be cardio challenged..

Holly Holm on the flip has proved she can go 5 rounds as she's done that in 2 of her last 3 fights.. She's also proved she can take a beating if necessary to go deep in fights.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Holly-Holm-75125

If Holy can get this fight into rounds 4 and 5 she might be able to stop a tired out Cyborg especially if her hands begin to drop.. Head kick time..

[PaperTrail07]

totally agree--bad to the point she cant walk like El Dirte Sanchez? LOL

This might be the biggest false narrative in MMA. There really isn't anything that suggests Cyborg has bad cardio.

[Hugo de Naranja]

She's never gone close to fighting 5 full rounds.. Cyborg carries alot of muscle... Brazilians are also typically known to be cardio challenged..

Holly Holm on the flip has proved she can go 5 rounds as she's done that in 2 of her last 3 fights.. She's also proved she can take a beating if necessary to go deep in fights.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Holly-Holm-75125

If Holy can get this fight into rounds 4 and 5 she might be able to stop a tired out Cyborg especially if her hands begin to drop.. Head kick time..

When has she actually SHOWN bad cardio in a fight? This is all just speculation/generalization.

[JIBBBY]

When has she actually SHOWN bad cardio in a fight? This is all just speculation/generalization.

It is, but we were talking about possible advantages Holly might have against Cyborg.. That could be one of them.. Not proven and you are correct.. Not unproven either..

Holly can't outstrike Cyborg, can't out grapple her, so a high pace and to get this fight into the later rounds I believe is HH best chance of beating Cyborg..