UFC 219: Cyborg Vs. Holm | 30.12.2017 (Las Vegas, Nevada)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Have you actually watched Cyborg fight? Im not sure if you are serious.

She completely disregards any offence her opponent might have and she rushes in and knocks them out. She doesnt mind getting hit because shes too powerful.

Thats literally the only chance she ever had. I mean juicing and gaining a massive edge over anybody. Somehow that shit stayed in her system she still looks massive and her swings pack a lot of pop. But brazilian fighters in particular are notorious for being on PED's. No biggie here.

She doesnt know how to move around her opponent, poor footwork, has almost the same answer every time she actually gets hit (which is being pissed off an rush forward = low fight IQ/low IQ) and she gets away with it every time.

I've watched Cyborg's fights against Baars, Carano, Finney, Muxlow, Coenen II, Tweet, Van Duin, Ibragimova, Smith, Lansberg, and Evinger.

She does rush in and get countered at times though she looked more measured in the Lansberg and Evinger fights but Holm could catch her I guess. Still she has much more power, better hands, better knees, and better volume. Cyborg has a big advantage on the mat and in the clinch.

I don't think either fighter has great footwork. Cyborg is more effective at pressuring while Holm is best at countering and circling off. Holm is a hit-and-run striker like Alexander Gustafsson. Just because she moves around a lot doesn't mean she has good footwork.

I agree that Holm could land a big counter and put Cyborg out but apart from that Cyborg will hit Holm much more than Holm hits her en route to yet another knockout or a wide UD.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Cyborg has never been to the 5th round. Holly Holmes can take Victor Stones punches...

She hasn't before but I really haven't seen her fade noticeably in any of her fights that I've watched. Am I missing something?

To me, Cyborg having bad cardio is a myth. People think she SHOULD gas because she throws a high volume of high power shots and most fighters who do that tend to fade in the later rounds (i.e. Anthony Johnson) but to this point I haven't seen it.

[turbozed]

She hasn't before but I really haven't seen her fade noticeably in any of her fights that I've watched. Am I missing something?

To me, Cyborg having bad cardio is a myth. People think she SHOULD gas because she throws a high volume of high power shots and most fighters who do that tend to fade in the later rounds (i.e. Anthony Johnson) but to this point I haven't seen it.

A couple more factors too. When fighters can put away their opponents early and never make it to later rounds, some people assume that they *can't* make it to the later rounds. Kind of a fallacy.

Another factor which I think can be a real thing is that Cyborg has the most deathly weight cuts and being that drained can't be good for cardio.

That being said, I keep hearing that her teammates have stated that she's a cardio machine. I wouldn't be worried about her cardio, especially against Holm who is the opposite of a pressure fighter. Holm will give her plenty of chances to take breaks.

[Hugo de Naranja]

A couple more factors too. When fighters can put away their opponents early and never make it to later rounds, some people assume that they *can't* make it to the later rounds. Kind of a fallacy.

Another factor which I think can be a real thing is that Cyborg has the most deathly weight cuts and being that drained can't be good for cardio.

That being said, I keep hearing that her teammates have stated that she's a cardio machine. I wouldn't be worried about her cardio, especially against Holm who is the opposite of a pressure fighter. Holm will give her plenty of chances to take breaks.

Good points. I've heard she is walking around near 170 rather than her usual 180-185. I don't think Cyborg has ever missed weight and has looked good in her few appearances at 140 Pound Catchweights. Certainly though cutting a bit less and fighting at 145 should help.

[Thor4140]

I’m sick Rivera/Lineker fight is history.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I’m sick Rivera/Lineker fight is history.

Me too what a bummer. Sounds like Lineker had an infected wisdom tooth. Wonder if they will find a short notice replacement for Rivera.

[Shagdogy]

A little off topic but why the hell is Usman fighting Meek? He is taking too many fights rather than waiting and insisting on the fights that will rise him up the ranks. He's gonna lose a fluke one of these days and seriously set back his title progression if he keeps doing this.

[Hugo de Naranja]

A little off topic but why the hell is Usman fighting Meek? He is taking too many fights rather than waiting and insisting on the fights that will rise him up the ranks. He's gonna lose a fluke one of these days and seriously set back his title progression if he keeps doing this.

That fight has moved around a bunch too. Keeps getting re-scheduled.

By the way, what are your thoughts on Nurmagomedov vs. Barboza?

[Shagdogy]

That fight has moved around a bunch too. Keeps getting re-scheduled.

By the way, what are your thoughts on Nurmagomedov vs. Barboza?

Haven't gotten there yet but I've been following the conversation and I like the logic that leans in favor of Barboza.

In general, I think strong TDD and a heavy striking advantage is an excellent path to winning fights. If you can get a wrestler/grappler nervous early in a fight that they can't get their TDs then they really start to struggle the more they get desperate. Long, poorly set up takedown attempts look horrible to judges, are demoralizing the more they fail, and help the faster striker get more and more loose and confident. I think this fight will be decided early on after the first 1-2 takedown attempts by Khabib. If Khabib goes 0-2, then I love Barboza's chances. He needs to stay off his back at all costs though.

I need to dive into the tape and try to look for some grappling exchanges that seem to correlate between the skill sets to see if I feel I can predict who might have an edge on dictating the fight to their game.

Haven't gone back through their library of fights. Can you point to any specific times when Barboza dealt with a threat most similar to Khabib?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Haven't gotten there yet but I've been following the conversation and I like the logic that leans in favor of Barboza.

In general, I think strong TDD and a heavy striking advantage is an excellent path to winning fights. If you can get a wrestler/grappler nervous early in a fight that they can't get their TDs then they really start to struggle the more they get desperate. Long, poorly set up takedown attempts look horrible to judges, are demoralizing the more they fail, and help the faster striker get more and more loose and confident. I think this fight will be decided early on after the first 1-2 takedown attempts by Khabib. If Khabib goes 0-2, then I love Barboza's chances. He needs to stay off his back at all costs though.

I need to dive into the tape and try to look for some grappling exchanges that seem to correlate between the skill sets to see if I feel I can predict who might have an edge on dictating the fight to their game.

Haven't gone back through their library of fights. Can you point to any specific times when Barboza dealt with a threat most similar to Khabib?

He hasn't fought a lot of elite grapplers yet but guys like Dariush, Castillo, Dunham, Ferguson, Cerrone, and Green presented some grappling threats, albeit on a lower level than Khabib. I watched 15 of Barboza's UFC fights for tape study so I'd be happy to share my notes on those with you if you want.

He does have that combination of faster striking speed, longer reach (5" reach advantage), and better technique that you value highly.

I think regardless of outcome, someone is getting dominated in this fight. Either Khabib gets TDs and top control and murks Barboza on the mat or Barboza stuffs TDs and/or scrambles back to his feet and dominates the striking.

[JIBBBY]

MERRY CHRISTMAS my MMA SBR friends and brothers... Best wishes always!!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

MERRY CHRISTMAS my MMA SBR friends and brothers... Best wishes always!!!

Thanks man you too!

[turbozed]

Marlon Moraes campaigning for a fight with Rivera and Rivera looks interested.

What a fuckin g...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Marlon Moraes campaigning for a fight with Rivera and Rivera looks interested.

What a fuckin g...

Hopefully they make that fight.

[Shagdogy]

Marlon Moraes campaigning for a fight with Rivera and Rivera looks interested.

What a fuckin g...

That's nuts, but also a great fight.

[PaperTrail07]

THanks jibbers----you and your as well.....

[Shagdogy]

MERRY CHRISTMAS my MMA SBR friends and brothers... Best wishes always!!!

Same Jibbs - and to everyone else as well.

[turbozed]

Merry Christmas! Thanks to all for successful betting year

[Thor4140]

Marlon Moraes campaigning for a fight with Rivera and Rivera looks interested.

What a fuckin g...

Hope this sticks but it doesn’t look like it is going well.

[UncleChael]

Thanks man you too!

Merry Christmas boys and SBR. Love you guys.

[TPowell]

well that is about right. The one fight I dug into gets scrapped. penetrate. Anybody have anything else? I'm thinking Diakese under 200 could be worth breaking down film for.

[TPowell]

Nicolau off a PED bust and line shoots up from -160 to -320 in a day? I get that Smolka has lose 3 straight fights but does anybody think Nicolau has the ground game of Elliott and Borg? I personally don't. He beat John Moraga in a kickboxing contest on points but it was rather uneventful and now he's coming off a PED suspension and a -300 favorite over a fringe top 15 fighter? Smolka hasn't beat anybody worth much outside of destroying Ben Nguyen but different style of opponents in those losses mostly. At +260 I'm heavily considering a play on Smolka (before tape).

[TPowell]

Very interested in another former flyweight. Tim Elliott's debut at BW against a decent looking prospect and Elliott is -220. After doing some reading from TUF and how bad his weight cut was (James Krause literally making Elliott get back in the sauna to cut the rest of the weight) and how Elliott talked about how bad he felt is an eye opener. He performed well in that 1st round against DJ but then faded and lost the final 4 rounds. At 5'7 he is plenty big for BW. I don't know much about his opponent Mark De La Rosa but he's 9-0 with 5 of his wins coming by way of submission. My guess is that this kid will be hard pressed to out-scramble Elliott at BW. We've saw what he can do on the mat and at 135, I expect him to be able to have a much bigger gas tank and able to use it in the scrambles.

[TPowell]

Another thing to add is De La Rosa had a title shot in Legacy FC in 2016 and his opponent missed weight but got another chance to weigh-in according to the rules and De la Rosa and his people went nuts. The opponent had to weigh in somewhere else because of the big fuss that was going on. He weighed in on point and De La Rosa accused everyone of shady stuff and NO SHOWED the fight. They were literally calling him the day of the fight and he refused to show up even with his wife/gf at the time on the card. I'm shocked this kid is in the UFC with that hanging above his head. That makes me want to fade him even more. He's beaten a lot of guys on the Mexican regional scene and Joe Sandoval who can't beat anybody.

[Shagdogy]

Hooker vs. Diakiese: Anyone got a real solid read on this one? seems like a very close fight. Might be a little value on Hooker, but not much, just barely.

Seems like Diakiese will have to wrestle Hooker, clinch with him, get him on his back, and control position/clock. Jason Knight was able to get in deep on TDs early in his fight with Hooker and finish pretty easily, and Diakiese is certainly more athletic than Knight. However, he doesn't usually shoot basic wrestling shots. He catches kicks for Tds and he gets body lock from clinch and gets Tds from there as well. Will he be able to do that against Hooker? Or will he adjust his TD game and shoot singles or doubles?

On the feet, I truly give the edge to Hooker. His left hand is very very accurate and he stays real busy with it. He also looked very sharp in his last fight when he decided to stay primarily in orthodox stance and ripped low leg kicks at Pearson with high volume. Diakiese got absolutely chewed up by those kicks against Klose. While Diakiese looks very fast and athletic and has some flashy kicks, he struggles with range IMO. He generally stays way outside of range and waits for his opponents to come forward so he can counter, and his last two fights with Packalen and Klose gave him willing opponents. Against Perez, however, who fought a more measured fight, Diakiese was so far out his hands were almost no factor at all, and his kicks even fell short a number of times (I do realize that he has since moved to ATT and shown improvement in this). Hooker should be yet another opponent who will come forward, but he won't be marching all the way into Diakiese's pocket.

All of these factors seem to give me more questions than answers. Can or will Diakiese adjust his takedown game? If he does adjust it, will he be ready for the guillotine sub/sweep threat of Hooker? If he doesn't, can he manage the range on the feet well enough make the most of his speed/athleticism advantage? Has he addressed the calf kick issue? I can't favor Diakiese 2-1 simply on athleticism alone. I feel like this fight should be even or maybe Diakiese a slight fav.

[TPowell]

Just watched Mark De La Rosa vs Arthur Oliveira (his toughest fight to date) in a 5 round title fight. Very competitive fight even though Mark's hands were lightning fast and connecting at will for the majority of the fight. He moves his feet pretty well but let Arthur come forward the entire fight and sling big power at him. He threw some leg kicks in the 4th round that went unchecked but largely just used his jab and lead hook to counter Arthur. Arthur didn't cut the cage off well at all, essentially just chasing Mark around the cage. Mark HAS to stop covering up against the cage though. I counted 3 times he did this in the fight when Arthur was teeing off. He wasn't badly rocked but it just doesn't look good and if something slips through, he is toast. Grappling wise, Mark's takedowns aren't great as he tried to land several single legs and was largely unsuccessful. His TDD wasn't really tested as Arthur seemed to want to just come forward.

The decision was unanimous for Mark (48-47, 49-46, and 50-45). I scored it 48-47 Mark but there were a couple really close rounds in there and it could have went 48-47 Arthur to 49-46 Mark IMO.

[TPowell]

In Mark's fight with Ivan Hernandez, he fought a smaller thicker brawler. Hernandez came into the fight looking to win it with his hands for sure. Mark was a little better about not getting pushed against the cage for sure but still primarily counter striking with that lightning quick jab. Landed a well timed TD in round one on a big bomb from Hernandez and another in the 2nd. His BJJ is obviously decent but didn't like his top control as Hernandez was able to get back to his feet pretty quickly. Mark went for a guillotine from on top and when he hit his back, he immediately tried to tie him up to force a stand-up. He finally landed a nice sweep into the mount where he took the back and got the arm triangle on the way back to mount.

[TPowell]

My review of De La Rosa after those 2 fights (his only ones against any competition) is he has some good tools with a quick jab and good movement on the feet plus a pretty good ground game but he largely waits on the opponent and becomes a counter striker that can get pushed against the cage at times. His wrestling isn't bad as he does time TD's pretty well but his top control is rather weak and he tends to gamble for subs giving up position. I'll need to look at Elliott on tape some more but I think Elliott can outscramble this kid on the ground and I'm not sure his TDD is enough to stay upright (not tested much in these 2 fights). On the feet, Elliott's funky style could pose some issues with that lightning quick counter jab but he'll need some time to learn Elliott's timing which could be problematic if Elliott gets inside and starts wrestling.

[TPowell]

Think maybe I know why Elliott is so underrated in this spot. Nguyen carved him up on the feet with his quickness and when they hit the ground, Nguyen out-scrambled him as well. It's certainly possible that Elliott has lost a step but coming up to 135 could really help IF the weight cut is causing some of it plus he'll face mostly slower opposition even though De La Rosa is very quick himself. I think in the end De La Rosa will let Elliott inside to fire off that counter jab but in the process he'll be getting taken down and in the 50-50 scrambles, I think Elliott at 135 will be tough to beat. My only worry is underestimating Mark's TDD. If the fight stays standing, Elliott will wear that quick jab but the way he pushes forward he may be able to still look like the winner on the judges cards. That is the big negative with counter striking and always backing up like De La Rosa tends to do. You won't get the respect from the judges and he doesn't have big power so he's down to getting the sub or completely dominating on the feet to win a decision maybe.

[turbozed]

Nicolau off a PED bust and line shoots up from -160 to -320 in a day? I get that Smolka has lose 3 straight fights but does anybody think Nicolau has the ground game of Elliott and Borg? I personally don't. He beat John Moraga in a kickboxing contest on points but it was rather uneventful and now he's coming off a PED suspension and a -300 favorite over a fringe top 15 fighter? Smolka hasn't beat anybody worth much outside of destroying Ben Nguyen but different style of opponents in those losses mostly. At +260 I'm heavily considering a play on Smolka (before tape).

Maybe had something to do with Smolka's recent interviews where he admits to being an alcoholic and drinking mouthwash to get drunk. It's actually pretty amazing that he has a decent UFC career as a functioning alcoholic.

[TPowell]

Maybe had something to do with Smolka's recent interviews where he admits to being an alcoholic and drinking mouthwash to get drunk. It's actually pretty amazing that he has a decent UFC career as a functioning alcoholic.

That does tend to counteract a guy coming off a PED bust. Will probably have to pass on that fight now.

[turbozed]

Think maybe I know why Elliott is so underrated in this spot. Nguyen carved him up on the feet with his quickness and when they hit the ground, Nguyen out-scrambled him as well. It's certainly possible that Elliott has lost a step but coming up to 135 could really help IF the weight cut is causing some of it plus he'll face mostly slower opposition even though De La Rosa is very quick himself. I think in the end De La Rosa will let Elliott inside to fire off that counter jab but in the process he'll be getting taken down and in the 50-50 scrambles, I think Elliott at 135 will be tough to beat. My only worry is underestimating Mark's TDD. If the fight stays standing, Elliott will wear that quick jab but the way he pushes forward he may be able to still look like the winner on the judges cards. That is the big negative with counter striking and always backing up like De La Rosa tends to do. You won't get the respect from the judges and he doesn't have big power so he's down to getting the sub or completely dominating on the feet to win a decision maybe.

I was expecting Elliot to be a bigger favorite too but based on name value alone against a debuting fighter. Until the Nguyen fight, Elliot was being a bit overrated for having a good round against DJ and for dominating Smolka (who is as inconsistent as it gets and, as we've discovered, is a drunkard). Before that, he won 4 fights in TUF but could've lost 2 of those decisions.

It's actually impressive how far Elliot has gotten with just a good scrambling game since he doesn't really have dominant top control wrestling or a good striking game. I think DLR is a live dog here but, as I mentioned in my breakdown, was looking for bigger odds.

[TPowell]

I was expecting Elliot to be a bigger favorite too but based on name value alone against a debuting fighter. Until the Nguyen fight, Elliot was being a bit overrated for having a good round against DJ and for dominating Smolka (who is as inconsistent as it gets and, as we've discovered, is a drunkard). Before that, he won 4 fights in TUF but could've lost 2 of those decisions.

It's actually impressive how far Elliot has gotten with just a good scrambling game since he doesn't really have dominant top control wrestling or a good striking game. I think DLR is a live dog here but, as I mentioned in my breakdown, was looking for bigger odds.

Elliott's top control may not be great but he'll be able to get and stay inside against a guy like DLR who is a counter striker. Elliott will take some shots but he should be able to outwork him on the ground. My hunch is this kid being 23 and that no show he pulled a year ago tells me that his maturity level isn't quite there and you have to worry about that in UFC debut, especially on short notice against a guy like Elliott who is so hard to plan for. I'm interested to see what Elliott at 135 looks like because he can really spend some gas in the scrambles and constant TD's but not cutting that weight could lead to a Brett Johns/Darren Elkins style of constantly shooting because they have the gas tank. If that happens, I don't think DLR will be able to keep pace and he'll probably break.

[turbozed]

Elliott's top control may not be great but he'll be able to get and stay inside against a guy like DLR who is a counter striker. Elliott will take some shots but he should be able to outwork him on the ground. My hunch is this kid being 23 and that no show he pulled a year ago tells me that his maturity level isn't quite there and you have to worry about that in UFC debut, especially on short notice against a guy like Elliott who is so hard to plan for. I'm interested to see what Elliott at 135 looks like because he can really spend some gas in the scrambles and constant TD's but not cutting that weight could lead to a Brett Johns/Darren Elkins style of constantly shooting because they have the gas tank. If that happens, I don't think DLR will be able to keep pace and he'll probably break.

I'm of the opposite opinion. Legacy was being shady and messed with the scales to make his opponent make weight when he was several pounds over. DLR walking from that situation showed maturity. If you watch interviews with the guy, he comes across as intelligent.

His fighting style is intelligent as well. Good footwork and counters even when moving backwards. When he's pressed against the cage, he's as stone-faced and calm as anyone I've seen.
There are probably reasons to bet against DLR but being an immature fighter isn't one of them IMO.

[WolfTicketDealer]

What are everyone's thoughts on Condit vs. Magny? I think Condit will struggle with TD's, but he is very good off his back. Leaning toward Condit but Magny is definitely live.

Fight goes the Distance (-115) is in play as well, I don't think Condit will KO Magny and Magny doesn't seem likely to win by finish either.