UFC 219: Cyborg Vs. Holm | 30.12.2017 (Las Vegas, Nevada)

[WolfTicketDealer]

I Think the best fight on the card is Rivera/Lineker. Technically i think Rivera has the edge but when it is close technically the beard comes into play and i don’t know much about Rivera’s beard but i do know u need a sledgehammer to put a dent in Linekers. Might be one to pass on and just enjoy.

This fight seems super likely to go the distance. I think that's the play if anything.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Edson Barboza is pretty elusive and slick on his feet.. I think he might have a slight striking and speed advantage over Khabib if it stays standing.. BIG IF though when saying that this fight might stay standing!!!

Edson Barboza belt levels...

Rank Black belt in Taekwondo^[7]
Black prajied in Muay Thai^[7] under Anderson França^[1]
Brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Ricardo Almeida^[8]


Khabib get's this fight to the ground and Edson will get ruined.. I going with Khabib ITD also with all that being said......

Barboza has huge striking and speed advantages. Khabib’s technique is TRASH for an elite fighter. That said, Khabib has great offensive wrestling and a huge advantage on the mat. True Striker vs Grappler fight.

[JIBBBY]

Barboza has huge striking and speed advantages. Khabib’s technique is TRASH for an elite fighter. That said, Khabib has great offensive wrestling and a huge advantage on the mat. True Striker vs Grappler fight.

Agreed, Khabib does close the distance effectively and once he gets his hands on his opponents they are going down.. Barboza better really be on his horse in this fight if he wishes to survive...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Agreed, Khabib does close the distance effectively and once he gets his hands on his opponents they are going down.. Barboza better really be on his horse in this fight if he wishes to survive...

Khabib has gotten pretty much everyone so far (check out the Tibau fight where he didn’t get consistent TDs and won a robbery) but when has Barboza been taken down and held down in his 17 fight UFC career?

I don’t hate plays on Khabib ITD or -3.5 if you like Khabib to win (he’s an underrated finisher who has covered the point spread in all of his fights so far) but I think Edson is really live. He’s got great TDD, footwork, and scrambling and will tune Khabib up for every second the fight is in the feet.

[JIBBBY]

Khabib has gotten pretty much everyone so far (check out the Tibau fight where he didn’t get consistent TDs and won a robbery) but when has Barboza been taken down and held down in his 17 fight UFC career?

I don’t hate plays on Khabib ITD or -3.5 if you like Khabib to win (he’s an underrated finisher who has covered the point spread in all of his fights so far) but I think Edson is really live. He’s got great TDD, footwork, and scrambling and will tune Khabib up for every second the fight is in the feet.

How are you thinking to play this Hugo?

I guess more props need to come before answering this.. (score cards = no action) and single round props not out yet.. I know you like to roll with those...

Edson Barboza vs Khabib Nurmagomedov - Lightweight 3 rounds - UFC 219
Sat 12/30		1103 Barboza / Nurmagomedov goes 3 round dis		-105
11:30PM		1104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance		-135
Sat 12/30		1105 Barboza wins inside distance		+320
11:30PM		1106 Not Barboza inside distance		-460
Sat 12/30		1107 Barboza wins by 3 round decision		+670
11:30PM		1108 Not Barboza by 3 round decision		-1410
Sat 12/30		1109 Nurmagomedov wins inside distance		+160
11:30PM		1110 Not Nurmagomedov inside distance		-210
Sat 12/30		1111 Nurmagomedov wins by 3 round decision		+150
11:30PM		1112 Not Nurmagomedov by 3 round decision		-190
Sat 12/30		1113 Barboza / Nurmagomedov draw		+8000
11:30PM		1114 Fight not a draw		-21500

[Demonata]

Barboza has huge striking and speed advantages. Khabib’s technique is TRASH for an elite fighter. That said, Khabib has great offensive wrestling and a huge advantage on the mat. True Striker vs Grappler fight.

It's definitely not trash or else he would have way more losses... I think michael johnson has good technique and he beat him easily and same with rafael dos anjos. I think this will be easier than RDA fight. Im not a barboza fan at all.

[Hugo de Naranja]

It's definitely not trash or else he would have way more losses... I think michael johnson has good technique and he beat him easily and same with rafael dos anjos. I think this will be easier than RDA fight. Im not a barboza fan at all.

When has he won an extended striking battle? His striking is like Ronda Rousey's, low technique with some power. Uses it to close the distance and get the fight to the mat. Both those guys are easier to take down and hold down.

[Hugo de Naranja]

This fight seems super likely to go the distance. I think that's the play if anything.

Yeah Over 2.5 or Goes Distance are definitely parlayable.

[Hugo de Naranja]

How are you thinking to play this Hugo?

I guess more props need to come before answering this.. (score cards = no action) and single round props not out yet.. I know you like to roll with those...

Edson Barboza vs Khabib Nurmagomedov - Lightweight 3 rounds - UFC 219
Sat 12/30		1103 Barboza / Nurmagomedov goes 3 round dis		-105
11:30PM		1104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance		-135
Sat 12/30		1105 Barboza wins inside distance		+320
11:30PM		1106 Not Barboza inside distance		-460
Sat 12/30		1107 Barboza wins by 3 round decision		+670
11:30PM		1108 Not Barboza by 3 round decision		-1410
Sat 12/30		1109 Nurmagomedov wins inside distance		+160
11:30PM		1110 Not Nurmagomedov inside distance		-210
Sat 12/30		1111 Nurmagomedov wins by 3 round decision		+150
11:30PM		1112 Not Nurmagomedov by 3 round decision		-190
Sat 12/30		1113 Barboza / Nurmagomedov draw		+8000
11:30PM		1114 Fight not a draw		-21500

Probably some Barboza SNA and ML. Maybe a hedge on Nurmy Sub.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I dont care about any of barbozas skills. Khabib has faught plenty of elusive fighters.i dont care if barboza has a license to kill. Khabib will take him down like everyone else and throw him around like he weighs nothing. Cyborg will punch holm in the so hard she taps. Cyborg is a mab so will win.

I'm not trying to be condescending, but it might be a good idea to think about the strengths and weaknesses that both fighters bring to the table rather than seeing things so black and white.

[Demonata]

I'm not trying to be condescending, but it might be a good idea to think about the strengths and weaknesses that both fighters bring to the table rather than seeing things so black and white.

To me i feel like his RDA fight was tougher than this will be. I could be wrong but i don't believe barboza is better at takedown defense than khabib is at getting takedowns. I just see an easy win for khabib. Unanimous decision or possible sub. Don't see him getting knocked out or stopped at all. I believe that's barbozas only chance and just not seeing it at all.

[Hugo de Naranja]

To me i feel like his RDA fight was tougher than this will be. I could be wrong but i don't believe barboza is better at takedown defense than khabib is at getting takedowns. I just see an easy win for khabib. Unanimous decision or possible sub. Don't see him getting knocked out or stopped at all. I believe that's barbozas only chance and just not seeing it at all.

I understand that point of view. RDA and Barboza do have a pretty similar skillset and Khabib did a great job with TDs/top control against him. Khabib also the more likely roundwinner as one TD could win him a round where he is losing in the standup (a la R1 of the Johnson fight). I think whoever wins the fight will win in dominant fashion. Either Barboza knocks Khabib out or gets grinded into dust/submitted.

[Demonata]

I understand that point of view. RDA and Barboza do have a pretty similar skillset and Khabib did a great job with TDs/top control against him. Khabib also the more likely roundwinner as one TD could win him a round where he is losing in the standup (a la R1 of the Johnson fight). I think whoever wins the fight will win in dominant fashion. Either Barboza knocks Khabib out or gets grinded into dust/submitted.

Yeah good points. Man I still wish Tyron vs Diaz was on this card I would of been more confident in woodly winning than khabib.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah good points. Man I still wish Tyron vs Diaz was on this card I would of been more confident in woodly winning than khabib.

Yeah wrestling + leg kicks is the easy way to beat Diaz bros and Tyron could definitely do that.

[JIBBBY]

Probably some Barboza SNA and ML. Maybe a hedge on Nurmy Sub.

I like Nurmy by sub.. Solid... I'll be on that if the odds are really good.. ITD if not..

Khabib does have a few UN decisions lately via the lay pray.. Barboza doesn't like to take alot of damage though and I could see him getting stopped, give up the neck if he's getting grapple focked...

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Khabib-Nurmagomedov-56035

[Demonata]

How am I supposed to drink this weekend with no UFC?

[JIBBBY]

How am I supposed to drink this weekend with no UFC?

Always got AXS.. I'll probably be capping these fights in the next day or so if I think some lines will be up on the board... I'll be in touch with Tony over on Dimes to see what's up.....

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[firekillex]

Barboza has huge striking and speed advantages. Khabib’s technique is TRASH for an elite fighter. That said, Khabib has great offensive wrestling and a huge advantage on the mat. True Striker vs Grappler fight.

gsp has a slight wresting advantage over conor mcgregor

[Hugo de Naranja]

gsp has a slight wresting advantage over conor mcgregor

Lol

[firekillex]

watch Barbozas last KO over Dariush.... if khabib gets lazy on any takedown its night night
that said i think khabib will win a 3 round decision, but Barboza is one of the top elite strikers in the UFC , he could KO anybody
if Michael Johnson can tag Khabib so can Edson

[firekillex]

sucks your boy lineker is gonna lose again Hugo... they aint giving him no breaks on the matchmaking jeeze

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like Nurmy by sub.. Solid... I'll be on that if the odds are really good.. ITD if not..

Khabib does have a few UN decisions lately via the lay pray.. Barboza doesn't like to take alot of damage though and I could see him getting stopped, give up the neck if he's getting grapple focked...

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Khabi...agomedov-56035

I object to the term Lay and Pray. Khabib is very active from top position. Just because he uses a wrestling based gameplan does not mean it is Lay and Pray.

[Hugo de Naranja]

sucks your boy lineker is gonna lose again Hugo... they aint giving him no breaks on the matchmaking jeeze

Yeah it’s a tough fight but Lineker is always live in a standup battle. I need to watch the recent tape on Rivera but I remember him as mostly a solid high volume without a lot of finishes. Does he go for TDs?

[firekillex]

Yeah it’s a tough fight but Lineker is always live in a standup battle. I need to watch the recent tape on Rivera but I remember him as mostly a solid high volume without a lot of finishes. Does he go for TDs?

he can use them when needed, his last fight against Almeida he used a couple takedowns i remember, against Faber he just mauled his leg with leg kicks ... hes a smaller/stocky 135ers so he wont have a huge size advantage over Lineker which is good for him to be a live dog... but i really like Riveras style, i think hell win a slightly close decision here imo

[firekillex]

Magny vs Condit WOW thats a sweet fight... didnt even notice it was on this card
very hard to cap , not knowing if Condits head is really in this.... and Condit wants to stay standing which helps Magny... this should be a solid fight with 2 long rangy 170ers who can throw for 3 rounds hard

[JIBBBY]

I object to the term Lay and Pray. Khabib is very active from top position. Just because he uses a wrestling based gameplan does not mean it is Lay and Pray.

Well explain then how Khabib won 3 of his last 5 fights by UN decision then? He wasn't standing and out pointing these fighters.. He was clinching and or laying on top for 3 rounds basically..

Like I said I kinda like Khabib to finish Barboza.. Then again Barboza has a damn good record though.http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Edson-Barboza-46259

I'm going with the undefeated fight in Khabib though either straight or ITD, nothing placed yet....

[Hugo de Naranja]

Magny vs Condit WOW thats a sweet fight... didnt even notice it was on this card
very hard to cap , not knowing if Condits head is really in this.... and Condit wants to stay standing which helps Magny... this should be a solid fight with 2 long rangy 170ers who can throw for 3 rounds hard

I think Magny might try to mix in some TDs of his own.

[firekillex]

I think Magny might try to mix in some TDs of his own.

would not be surprised if he did that if hes losing the standup, condit is very slick off his back though
normally id lean condit because skill wise hes one of the best at 170, but hes been off a while and i feel like hes just fighting for money at this point in his career, so its a closer fight imo.... Magny not looking great lately though

[firekillex]

Well explain then how Khabib won 3 of his last 5 fights by UN decision then? He wasn't standing and out pointing these fighters.. He was clinching and or laying on top for 3 rounds basically..

Like I said I kinda like Khabib to finish Barboza.. Then again Barboza has a damn good record though.http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Edson-Barboza-46259

I'm going with the undefeated fight in Khabib though either straight or ITD, nothing placed yet....

jibby just because you win a decision doesnt mean you layd and prayed...... you can be active on top and win a decision lol its called advancing position and working for submissions at a rapid rate , while landing GNP

[Hugo de Naranja]

Well explain then how Khabib won 3 of his last 5 fights by UN decision then? He wasn't standing and out pointing these fighters.. He was clinching and or laying on top for 3 rounds basically..

Like I said I kinda like Khabib to finish Barboza.. Then again Barboza has a damn good record though.http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Edson-Barboza-46259

I'm going with the undefeated fight in Khabib though either straight or ITD, nothing placed yet....

In the Trujillo fight, he landed a record 21 TDs. That means he was getting consistent TDs and doing damage with big slams rather than just getting 1 TD per round and staying in top position with no GnP.

In the Healy fight, he landed 54 Significant Strikes, 5 TDs and 4 Guard Passes. That means he was trapping Healy's arm, getting the Crucifix position, posturing up with GnP and looking for a submission, in other words staying active from top position.

Finally, in the Dos Anjos fight like the Healy fight, he had a good mix of TDs and Guard Passes with six of each.

In my mind, "Lay and Pray" is like Johny Hendricks against Magny where Hendricks secured 6 TDs but landed almost no GnP, attempted no submissions, and never looked to finish the fight. I think the difference between LnP and offensive wrestling/grappling/GnP gameplans are the urgency of looking for a finish.

Even though I plan to bet against Khabib, I realize he put a beatdown on his last two opponents en route to finishes where he pounded away with ground strikes, passed to dominant positions and eventually finished the fights.

[JIBBBY]

I think Magny might try to mix in some TDs of his own.

We did see Magny do that in one of recent fights.. That is a very good possibility.. Condit never had great TDD either...

Could we maybe looking at Magny by decision maybe? Condit is very hard to finish.. Isn't Condit looking to retire soon also?

You would think the odds would be a little better then this though on the decision prop...

Sat 12/30

1407 Magny wins by 3 round decision

+320

[Hugo de Naranja]

We did see Magny do that in one of recent fights.. That is a very good possibility.. Could we maybe looking at Magny by decision maybe? Condit is very hard to finish.. Isn't Condit looking to retire soon also?

You would think the odds would be a little better then this though on the decision prop...

Sat 12/30

1407 Magny wins by 3 round decision

+320

I'm fine with these odds as I think it's pretty unlikely Magny finishes. On it for 1u.

[JIBBBY]

I'm fine with these odds as I think it's pretty unlikely Magny finishes. On it for 1u.

I think I'm in as well.. Good thinking Hugo as usual....

[JollyRogerMMA]

NO I have already bet the Under 2 1/2 -105 rounds for 2 Units my go more ... Both have a skill gap in the others discipline.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think I'm in as well.. Good thinking Hugo as usual....

I'm always happy when we getting to the same conclusions independently. Let's get it!