UFC 219: Cyborg Vs. Holm | 30.12.2017 (Las Vegas, Nevada)

**Shagdogy** · 12-30-17, 07:12 PM

Here's where I am at so far... will prob be adding more throughout the night. We'll see.

Straight Plays
De La Rosa +195, .5u
Vettori -235, 3u
Magny +135, 1u
Barboza +250, 1u

Parlays
Rountree+ Diakiese parlay +100, 1.5u
Nicolau + Cyborg parlay -115, 1.5u
Nicolau + Rountree/Oleksiejczuk parlay u1.5 +112, 1.33u

Good luck everyone!

**TPowell** · 12-30-17, 07:14 PM

UFC 219, Las Vegas, 31st Dec '17

Props and Parlays

Unit Bet

	Fight	Pick	Odds
Pr	Marvin Vettori vs Omari Akhmedov	Over 2.5 rounds	-130

1.3

	Fight	Pick	Odds
Pr	Marvin Vettori vs Omari Akhmedov	Fight starts round 3	-158

3

	Fight	Pick	Odds
PrPi	Edson Barboza vs Khabib Nurmagomedov	Nurmagomedov points handicap -3.5	-150

3

	Fight	Pick	Odds
PrPi	Carlos Condit vs Neil Magny	Magny wins by decision	+289

0.5

	Fight	Pick	Odds
PrPi	Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Khalil Rountree	Rountree wins in round 1	-125

1

	Fight	Pick	Odds
PrPi	Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Khalil Rountree	Rountree wins in round 1	-125

1

	Fight	Pick	Odds
Pr	Cynthia Calvillo vs Carla Esparza	Fight starts round 3	-264
Pi	Tim Elliott vs Mark Delarosa	Elliott to win	-225
		Parlay Odds:	-101

1.5

**TPowell** · 12-30-17, 07:15 PM

My writeups are at the site below as well with the picks

MMA Handicapper Profile, T Powell: MMA Betting Tips. Bet MMA.tips

http://www.betmma.tips/TPowell90

**Shagdogy** · 12-30-17, 07:20 PM

Man... I donno why but I get nervous on fight nights lately. It's not like I'm betting life changing money. Wtf.

**turbozed** · 12-30-17, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

I didn't cap this one but I may need to let you and Hugo guide me... I have Cyborg/Nicolau parlayed at -120. How do you think this fight goes? You have the knack for women's fights.

Think its going to be a kickboxing match for the first round or so. Cyborg may land a big counter for a quick fight. If that doesn't happen, eventually I think Cyborg gets Holly up to the cage and then grinds her out in the clinch landing knees/elbows/punches. Eventually something gets through. If Holly is putting up a good fight backed up against the cage, Cyborg might take her to the ground with a bodylock and try to pound her out.

To my eyes, Cyborg has always looked a class (not just in weight, but in skill) above any fighter (Holm, GDR, etc.) That and her build and I can't imagine Holly's path to victory except for a crazy headkick. So I've put a hedge on Holly by KO +1347, but I've got money spread out on Cyborg ML, -5.5, and ITD.

**turbozed** · 12-30-17, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Man... I donno why but I get nervous on fight nights lately. It's not like I'm betting life changing money. Wtf.

Me too. Sometimes I have to remind myself to breathe regularly when I watch a fight I got money on. It's just the degen in us lol

**turbozed** · 12-30-17, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

Elliott was always really strong at FLY and I agree that DLR isn't very physically imposing with his age yet.

I don't really think he's that strong at Flyweight. He looks strong compared to Smolka who is probably the easiest guy to push around at Flyweight. But against other wrestlers during TUF like Ogikubo and Shelton, his strength seemed rather average.

**JC2008** · 12-30-17, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Man... I donno why but I get nervous on fight nights lately. It's not like I'm betting life changing money. Wtf.

- That's good... It shows your heart is still in it lol

**Sato** · 12-30-17, 07:26 PM

Anybody know why the late start?

**turbozed** · 12-30-17, 07:28 PM

Cyborg ML, ITD, -5.5
Cyborg O1.5 (at -215, not now)

Vettori/Cyrborg

De La Rosa ML

Glenn (may buy out, I dunno)

Khabib -3.5

**TPowell** · 12-30-17, 07:28 PM

Originally posted by Sato

Anybody know why the late start?

Only 1 prelim fight

**turbozed** · 12-30-17, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by Sato

Anybody know why the late start?

Only 10 fights on the card

**Shagdogy** · 12-30-17, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

Cyborg ML, ITD, -5.5
Cyborg O1.5 (at -215, not now)

Vettori/Cyrborg

De La Rosa ML

Glenn (may buy out, I dunno)

Khabib -3.5

I'm with you on Cyborg, Vettori, De La Rosa... going against you on Khabib. Good luck! I thought about hitting Glenn for a little bit but the line never hit what I was hoping.

**MMANick** · 12-30-17, 07:35 PM

On Timmy -185 here. I think he'll be able to utilize his wrestling and size & do some bullying. I finally got it under-200 like I wanted.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-30-17, 07:35 PM

Best of luck everyone!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-30-17, 07:38 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

Think its going to be a kickboxing match for the first round or so. Cyborg may land a big counter for a quick fight. If that doesn't happen, eventually I think Cyborg gets Holly up to the cage and then grinds her out in the clinch landing knees/elbows/punches. Eventually something gets through. If Holly is putting up a good fight backed up against the cage, Cyborg might take her to the ground with a bodylock and try to pound her out.

To my eyes, Cyborg has always looked a class (not just in weight, but in skill) above any fighter (Holm, GDR, etc.) That and her build and I can't imagine Holly's path to victory except for a crazy headkick. So I've put a hedge on Holly by KO +1347, but I've got money spread out on Cyborg ML, -5.5, and ITD.

I've got a similar read. Also big on Cyborg with a hedge on Holm KO/TKO. Let's get it!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-30-17, 07:48 PM

Nice win for Elliott. Dominated the grappling there much more than I expected. At least I hit hedge on Elliott Submission.

**Shagdogy** · 12-30-17, 07:48 PM

Waste of money on DLR there. No getups. Never got his hands going. Shot immediately to start round 2? Bad.

**Sato** · 12-30-17, 07:50 PM

UFC jitters. Its real. Didnt bet this fight.

**MMANick** · 12-30-17, 07:52 PM

Originally posted by Sato

UFC jitters. Its real. Didnt bet this fight.

He was outgunned even without the jitters.

**turbozed** · 12-30-17, 07:52 PM

DLR was incredibly disappointing there. Jumped for a guillotine? The mat should've been hot lava for him. Gotta question the guy's gameplanning

**TPowell** · 12-30-17, 07:53 PM

DLR's hands are very good though. If he fights someone not so grappling heavy, I'll remember and be on him.

**MMANick** · 12-30-17, 07:54 PM

Anyone liking Smolka next? I think he's got a shot.

**turbozed** · 12-30-17, 07:55 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Waste of money on DLR there. No getups. Never got his hands going. Shot immediately to start round 2? Bad.

There were a few times where he could've just stood up there. Maybe almost getting an armbar in the first made him think he would win a grappling match? Inexplicable otherwise.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-30-17, 07:55 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

DLR's hands are very good though. If he fights someone not so grappling heavy, I'll remember and be on him.

Yeah I thought he had a solid striking advantage but we didn't get to see that at all.

**Slevin07** · 12-30-17, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

Me too. Sometimes I have to remind myself to breathe regularly when I watch a fight I got money on. It's just the degen in us lol

Hahaha I do the same thing. Gotta remember to breathe regularly. And like powell said, I don't got life changing money on it.

**turbozed** · 12-30-17, 08:03 PM

I really hate losing my first bet of the night.

**TPowell** · 12-30-17, 08:04 PM

Leaned Smolka here but his immaturity and then line move scared me away

**Sirius** · 12-30-17, 08:04 PM

Fading Rountree

Backing Calvillo/fading Esparza

**Sato** · 12-30-17, 08:11 PM

Smolka turned into jellyman from taht left hook.

**turbozed** · 12-30-17, 08:11 PM

Took Smolka +1100 for the hell of it

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-30-17, 08:11 PM

That's a 10-8 Nicolau for sure

**MMANick** · 12-30-17, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

Leaned Smolka here but his immaturity and then line move scared me away

Gonna have to catch him in a sub.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-30-17, 08:12 PM

Fight was (+475) to Go Distance after R1. Got rejected on a live-bet

**Hugo de Naranja** · 12-30-17, 08:13 PM

Originally posted by MMANick

Gonna have to catch him in a sub.

Nicolau is an elite Black Belt. I'd be surprised if Smolka caught him here.