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Hyun gyu lim will beat mike perry. Mike perry is such a bad fighter. Avetage or bad at most everything but caN hit hardComment -
looking forward to watching tim means to, really exciting fighter might add him into a parlay as well
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MMA mania write ups starting to come in now -
170 lbs.: Neil Magny vs. Lorenz Larkin
Despite just reaching the semifinals in one of the worst The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) seasons, Neil Magny (18-4) has emerged as one of the Welterweight division’s best. He’s won 10 of his last 11 fights, including a comeback knockout of Hector Lombard in his most recent bout.
He stands four inches taller than Lorenz Larkin (17-5) at 6’3."
Larkin -- who opened his Strikeforce career at Light Heavyweight -- has found a real home for himself in UFC’s 170-pound division. He’s gone 3-1 since making the drop, the sole loss a close decision against Albert Tumenov and one of the victories a knockout of Santiago Ponzinibbio.
He’s knocked out 10 opponents overall.
This is a really, really good fight, far more intriguing than the planned match up between Magny and Dong Hyun Kim. I expect the same result, a Magny decision, but he’s going to have a much tougher time pulling it off.
While Larkin has the speed and power advantage, Magny is incredibly composed under fire and has bounced back from early trouble against big hitters like Hyun Gyu Lim and the aforementioned Lombard. I simply don’t believe Larkin can put him out before Magny settles in and ruthlessly exploits his length advantage.
There’s also Magny’s ever-evolving wrestling to consider.
Event though Larkin is a great talent whom I expect will push Magny hard, Magny’s length and grappling edge should carry him to a competitive decision.
Prediction: Magny via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Colby Covington vs. Max Griffin
Colby Covington (9-1) opened his UFC career with three straight wins, but was eighty-sixed in 86 seconds by Warlley Alves’ guillotine his next time out. He’s since rebounded with a dominant submission win over late replacement Johnathan Meunier in Ottawa.
He has tapped six of his 10 professional opponents.
Max Griffin (12-2) enters UFC having won eight of his last nine fights, losing only to prospect Chidi Njokuani in a five-round split decision. His last two fights have seen him knockout Randall Wallace in four and starch former UFC competitor David Mitchell in under a minute.
The WFC champ has knocked out six opponents overall.
Covington, simply put, is a horrific match up for UFC newcomers. The American Top Team (ATT) product has terrific wrestling and the sort of patient, grinding style that leaves few openings for those without a killer guillotine. He also has the cardio to maintain his takedown onslaught for all three rounds, eating away at his opponent’s cardio and confidence all the while.
Any debutant will have issues with Covington, but Griffin will have even more than usual.
Griffin struggled badly with Randall Wallace’s wrestling two fights ago, repeatedly giving up his back. He hits hard, sure, but doesn’t have the takedown defense or technique to bring that power to bear before Covington bulldozes him to the mat. "Chaos" overwhelms him before locking up the rear-naked choke partway through the second.
Prediction: Covington via second-round submission.
185 lbs.: Alberto Pereira vs. Marvin Vettori
Brazil’s Alberto Pereira (10-1) brought a four-fight knockout streak into his Octagon debut, capped off by a first-round knockout of inaugural TUF: "Brazil" competitor Thiago Perpetuo. "Uda" managed to break Jake Collier’s nose early on, but succumbed to a hard knee and spinning back kick sixty-six seconds into the second round.
He will have a three-inch height advantage over the 6’0" Marvin Vettori (10-2).
Italy’s Vettori became the Venator Welterweight Champion in the promotion’s inaugural show and scored a successful defense in its second one. This past May, he earned the biggest win of his career with a guillotine submission of Igor Araujo on the infamous Palhares vs. Meek card. He’s submitted seven opponents and knocked out another two.
"Uda" looked as good as advertised in the clinch against Jake Collier, but seemed profoundly uncomfortable outside of it, wading in with lunging punches and showing little nuance to his clinch entries. He also ate far more punches than is reasonable from a below-average striker. While the drop to welterweight may improve his already-fearsome clinch, it’s not going to fix his technical flaws.
Vettori has the edge in wrestling and overall grappling, which ought to synergize nicely with Pereira’s love of working inside. So long as the Italian steers clear of Uda’s knees, I expect him to lock up something in transition.
Prediction: Vettori via first-round submissionComment -
DIAZ Backers:
Are you at all concerned about the Pinnacle Lean? Pinnacle (and now 5Dimes/SportBet) looks to be taking a position with Diaz+110 or better and terrible numbers on McGregor, -124 and worse.
That is, the sparpest book is offering better-than-market numbers on Diaz and worse-than-market numbers on McGregor.
When this happens in MLB, NCAA, NFL, or NBA, it's an indicator a lot of people care about--even if it's just a few cents of juice. This is quite a bit more than that.
Good sign for McGregor?Comment -
the way I'm playing it is Lobov as most important, then a parlay
of Markos, Pennington, Garbrandt. If Markos loses, I parlay
Pennington with Garabrandt.
I took Casey in her last fight, but I doubt if she can KO Markos,
if Markos gets her on the mat, Casey can't stop her.Comment -
no i'm not any more worried now then i was when the fight got booked. i give conor a fair chance to find a ko within the first 10 minutes, but after that? it'll be all downhill.
weidman was the dog both times against anderson silva. and that's a matchup i think weidman wins 7-8 out of 10 times they fight.Comment -
Last I looked it was wider than that on a few of my books.. My bets on that fight have already been placed for over a week now so I can care less..
I thought I remembered seeing a wider juice gap then that, and based on your above post I thought you were saying it was wide.. I guess I should have double checked.. Disregard my bad..Last edited by JIBBBY; 08-16-16, 05:02 PM.Comment -
[QUOTE=Snowball;26140432]the way I'm playing it is Lobov as most important, then a parlay
Would you care to say why you're so confident on Lobov? I lean towards him as well because when I watched Avila's fights, most of the time he isn't very dominant unless it's a total can. He was losing one fight but managed to win by getting in a RNC.Comment -
Diaz took it easy on McGregor last fight he won't this time..
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Magny vs Larkin is a damn good fight!!!! I originally leaned Larkin but am having second thoughts now.. Tough fight to call..
I'm still a no play on this fight.. When I feel like there is not a clear winner then I go to the hedge...
Chances are Larkin's only pathway to victory is by finishing Magny and probably by KO as I don't think he can out point the rangy longer fighter Magny and win the decision.. Larkin is as tough as nails and just about impossible to finish.. With that being said -
May try Larkin ITD and hedge with the Magny decision..
1905 Larkin wins inside distance +350
1911 Magny wins by 3 round decision +146 Last edited by JIBBBY; 08-16-16, 07:28 PM.Comment -
I like Magny + Decision in this spot. I think Larkin's best chance of finishing him is early in the first since Magny has been hurt and almost finished early in a few fights (Lombard and Lim). Larkin has never submitted anyone and has never been submitted so and I don't see that changing in this fight. It looks like odds for Larkin ITD and KO/TKO are both (+350) and I agree with Jibs that it's the best prop if you like Larkin. Also worth looking at:Magny vs Larkin is a damn good fight!!!! I originally leaned Larkin but am having second thoughts now.. Tough fight to call..
I'm still a no play on this fight.. When I feel like there is not a clear winner then I go to the hedge...
Chances are Larkin's only pathway to victory is by finishing Magny and probably by KO as I don't think he can out point the rangy longer fighter Magny and win the decision.. Larkin is as tough as nails and just about impossible to finish.. With that being said -
May try Larkin ITD and hedge with the Magny decision..
1905 Larkin wins inside distance +350
1911 Magny wins by 3 round decision +146
Fight Goes to Decision (-185)
Larkin Round 1 (+675)
Magny Round 3 (+1375)Comment -
Finally some real talk here. I like it. I had Magny/Larkin as a possible play circled at -185 going the distance. Magny is a resilient fighter who managed to not get finished by Lombard who is a monster and Larkin has never been finished I don't think by strikes. This should be a technical fight and if Magny can incorporate his evolving wrestling game, he could easily steal a decision hereComment -
Tpow I said I will bring some solid talk and substance to the table but I'm really just starting to hard cap most of the fights now.. With the Olympics going my interests have been else where in all honesty.. I'm on it now.. More prop discussions coming up.. Hugo and BJ have been delivering.
We still got time though...... Write ups and more info still coming in... I like to gather it all up before posting in absolutes...
I still don't know how Magny survived Lombard.. That was a crazy fight..
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Somebody already posted about the under in the Lim/Perry fight but that fight probably doesn't make it out of the first round IMO. I think you can lay -185 or so and get the fight doesn't get to the 3rd roundComment -
Hugo I don't really look to play round bets as I just think they are too hard to land and figure out.. I know you are big on round betting but I just don't like it.. What if Larkin starts landing in the first and then finally drops Magny in the 2nd round.. Your bets blow up.. ITD doesn't pay out like the round bets but it's the safer play...
I do like round 1 bets though at times, but there has to be round 1 trends, a killer fighting, and probably heavy weights.. In those cases I'll try a 1st round bet. Rumble Johnson is a good 1st round bet for example in most of his fights..
Just thinking out loud and wondering about the round betting that's it.. GL hugo as I always root for you to win when I'm not on the other side of the play..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 08-16-16, 09:43 PM.Comment -
^^^I'm on Nate so I guess I'm not a fool and will probably win
.. Lol..
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McGregoat -120 will be the easiest money of all time. We will never see him shorter than -300 again.Comment -
my prediction is coming through half the people will be buried here on the main fight and half will say i told you so i knew all along haha, ill be sitting back hoping the o2.5 comes through and enjoying the fight with whoever wins
also big value on tim means ITD -170 imo, sabah homasi has been finished in 4 of his 5 losses ( 2 subs , 2 tkos) tim means is a finisher with 21 finishes in 25 wins (17 tkos , 4 subs ) and i think he just superior then homasi in every aspect of the game tbh.. tim means is super underrated and i dont think homasi is a ufc caliber fighter at best a low end fighter in the ufc where as tim means could be a gatekeeper/ top 15 level fighter .. The one thing homasi has is some power in his punches so hopefully he tries to stand and bang with means which i dont think will end well for himComment -
Mcgregor hit Nate flush with two round houses and one huge kick in the same spot....NATE JUST LAUGHED AT HIM...wtf do you think Nate's gonna do to him with a full camp?
Hope they have an ambulance on site and a good trauma center nearby
5 bills on Nate...will wait right before fight when all of Connor's assplay brothers start pounding himComment
