MD's House of Winnerz

**Sacrelicious** · 12-31-12, 09:10 PM

Well played, MD.

MD · 12-31-12, 09:14 PM

Thanks buddy, hope to see us on the same side more in 2013, let's cash some winners.

**Vaughany** · 12-31-12, 09:17 PM

c'mon dude.....it's "winnerZ"

MD · 12-31-12, 09:25 PM

I think we need to retire that phrase like a jersey number in honour of Gabe.

**Vaughany** · 12-31-12, 09:30 PM

ha no we retired the derogatory term "moron" in honour of Gaberz...it was his favourite (closely followed by "stupid")

**Grabaka** · 12-31-12, 10:07 PM

"Dumb momo" is retired too.

**Vaughany** · 12-31-12, 10:08 PM

In the words of Joe Rogan... "Gaberz is bewildered"!

MD · 01-05-13, 12:50 AM

I'm back, cousins.

MD · 01-06-13, 12:54 PM

Aldo by decision +220 moderate.
Rampage by decision +650 small.

**Sacrelicious** · 01-06-13, 01:24 PM

Interesting plays. I have not put any money on either of these fights yet with the exception of a donk parlay that JDS shot to hell..

If I do decide to go heavy on Tex however, that rampage play at those numbers might not be a bad hedge. Nice lines on both.

MD · 01-06-13, 02:02 PM

I'm not too confident on the Rampage line, and will play him straight up moderate closer to fight time, as there's a decent chance he KO's Glover, given Glover's suspect chin and Rampage's stylistic advantage.

Aldo finishing Edgar would surprise me. I think the "fight goes distance" prop is very solid, especially as it's + money right now.

**Sacrelicious** · 01-06-13, 02:08 PM

I would be absolutely astounded if Aldo finished Edgar, solid prop play.

**DeFactoCrippler** · 01-06-13, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by MD

Aldo finishing Edgar would surprise me. I think the "fight goes distance" prop is very solid, especially as it's + money right now.

Edgar has taken a ton of damage in his last few fights.

Guy was getting caught with punches he didnt see by guys like gray maynard. Now he is fighting a guy with handspeed he has never seen, who has leg kicks, and the footwork to cut him off in the octagon.

manlet is gonna get smoked. vaughany will have to take down his poster.

**Beelzebubzy** · 01-06-13, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by MD

I'm not too confident on the Rampage line, and will play him straight up moderate closer to fight time, as there's a decent chance he KO's Glover, given Glover's suspect chin and Rampage's stylistic advantage.

Aldo finishing Edgar would surprise me. I think the "fight goes distance" prop is very solid, especially as it's + money right now.

I played that prop at +130, was very surprised at that prop

I do not think Glovers chin is suspect nor do I think Rampage has amazing punching power anymore. Failure to connect and finish weak chins like Forrest, Jardine, and Bader are what would tempt me to play Rampage by decision. Moreover, Rampage does not throw enough and will always lose a volume contest.

I have 2u on Aldo at -225 I think. Hendo showed us in Round 1 of the second fight that leg kicks work.

**Vaughany** · 01-06-13, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by DeFactoCrippler

Edgar has taken a ton of damage in his last few fights.

Guy was getting caught with punches he didnt see by guys like gray maynard. Now he is fighting a guy with handspeed he has never seen, who has leg kicks, and the footwork to cut him off in the octagon.

manlet is gonna get smoked. vaughany will have to take down his poster.

hahaa "Tom's River baby"!

MD · 01-12-13, 08:10 PM

Don't have time to handicap until the end of the month, so here's some unstudied action plays for chump change:

1/12/13 8:07pm	$105.47	$59.76	Pending	2 Team Parlay
			Pending	1/12/13 9:00pm Strikeforce Fighting 2601 Roger Gracie -340* vs Anthony Smith
			Pending	1/12/13 8:30pm Strikeforce Fighting 2701 Tim Kennedy -475* vs Trevor Smith

1/12/13 4:32pm	$50.00	$44.40	Pending	2 Team Parlay
			Pending	1/12/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 2205 Barnett wins inside distance -530* vs Not Barnett inside distance
			Pending	1/12/13 10:30pm Props Fighting 2305 Mousasi wins inside distance -170* vs Not Mousasi inside distance

1/12/13 4:31pm	$10.00	$55.90	Pending	1/12/13 11:30pm Props Fighting 2107 Cormier wins by 3 round decision +559* vs Not Cormier by 3 round decision

1/12/13 10:48am	$20.00	$68.67	Pending	4 Team Parlay
			Pending	1/12/13 11:59pm Strikeforce Fighting 2001 Nate Marquardt -325* vs Tarec Saffiedine
			Pending	1/12/13 11:30pm Strikeforce Fighting 2101 Daniel Cormier/Dion Staring Over 1½ +165*
			Pending	1/12/13 11:00pm Strikeforce Fighting 2201 Josh Barnett -1600* vs Nandor Guelmino
			Pending	1/12/13 10:30pm Strikeforce Fighting 2301 Gegard Mousasi -490* vs Mike Kyle

1/9/13 2:46pm	$100.00	$128.91	Pending	5 Team Parlay
			Pending	1/12/13 11:59pm Strikeforce Fighting 2001 Nate Marquardt -300* vs Tarec Saffiedine
			Pending	1/12/13 11:30pm Strikeforce Fighting 2101 Daniel Cormier -2000* vs Dion Staring
			Pending	1/12/13 11:00pm Strikeforce Fighting 2201 Josh Barnett -1500* vs Nandor Guelmino
			Pending	1/12/13 10:30pm Strikeforce Fighting 2301 Gegard Mousasi -420* vs Mike Kyle
			Pending	1/12/13 10:00pm Strikeforce Fighting 2401 Ronaldo Souza -420* vs Ed Herman

1/9/13 11:40am	$100.00	$42.50	Pending	2 Team Parlay
			Pending	1/12/13 11:59pm Strikeforce Fighting 2001 Nate Marquardt -280* vs Tarec Saffiedine
			Pending	1/12/13 11:30pm Strikeforce Fighting 2101 Daniel Cormier -2000* vs Dion Staring

MD · 01-17-13, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by MD

Curran is going to put an end to the hype train. I've already posted that I believe most of the fight will be contested on the feet, due to both fighter's outstanding takedown defence, and although many would give Pitbull the edge on the feet, I think Curran will beat him there. Soundly.

I believe that if there's a knockout, it will be Pat knocking out Freire, and rarely vice-versa. Pitbull can get the better of Curran in some exchanges, and maybe even win some rounds, but the fact is that Curran is one of the most well-rounded strikers in the division and his defence is resoundingly the best in the division. His defence is superb, and his ability to control distance and pacing is excellent.

Let me ask you the money question: outside of his physical tools, what is Curran's biggest advantage on the feet? The answer is that he is a truly disciplined striker. Say what you will about Freire's cardio, he's gotten two third-round knockouts in Bellator, but the fact that he gets sloppier and sloppier as the fight progresses is undeniable. For an example, his knockout of Reis is considered one of his finest moments, but take a look at the video. His form, his technique, his timing. Look at everything about it.

I'm not impressed by Freire's cardio, and I don't think he's a disciplined enough striker to execute a solid game plan against a fighter like Curran for five rounds. Pitbull has the tools to win, but he probably won't find the early knockout due to Curran's defence, and even if he wins the first round or two, it will get ugly from there. Pat Curran can find anyone's chin; his accuracy and his ability to exploit openings in a person's striking game are world-class. Curran is a low-volume striker with a style that doesn't bode well for him should the fight go to the judges, but even if Pitbull wins the first three rounds, if he gets sloppy as he has in the past, there's a very strong chance that Curran will finish him. Freire is a physical specimen, but Curran is conditioned, disciplined, and has the fight IQ to exploit Pitbull at every possible turn. He'll use his reach and cardio advantages, drag Pitbull into deep waters, and then drown him.

Curran, moderate-large.

Curran cashes. Also got a moderate-large bet on Chandler.

Originally posted by MD

Playing Chandler -185.

**Grabaka** · 01-17-13, 11:57 PM

Good job Mister D

**BIGDAY** · 01-18-13, 12:12 AM

Nice calls on Curran and Chandler.

My only two in MMA tonight. Chandler is a beast!

MD · 01-18-13, 12:22 AM

Thanks boys, appreciate the kind words. We never seem to lose when we're on the same side, G.

BIGDAY, Chandler is indeed a beast. I think Curran's the best fighter in Bellator by a mile, though. Chandler's striking has an immeasurable number of holes, but if he progresses as he has been, he'll be a force some day.

A good start to 2013 so far, carrying over my success from the tail end of 2012. I haven't finished down on an event in a long time (unless you want to count the final Strikeforce card where I didn't have the time to handicap it so I threw change on some parlays), and I owe it all to JSanford.

**Sacrelicious** · 01-18-13, 01:44 AM

Was on both.

It sounds like most of the people here had a solid night, thats what I like to hear. My only miss tonight was on the Chandler/Hawn over... dunno what I was thinking there.

**Dwil125** · 01-18-13, 02:31 AM

Lol maybe that o/u should have been a no play, I though it would be a little harder for chandler to finish his takedowns and I didnt see hawn getting subbed.

**Grabaka** · 01-18-13, 02:43 AM

Originally posted by MD

Thanks boys, appreciate the kind words. We never seem to lose when we're on the same side, G.

Team cuzins never loses

MD · 01-18-13, 05:00 PM

Back to handicapping properly on the 23rd. Until then, more unstudied junk plays that don't count.

I'm fairly sure that were I to properly handicap the main event, I'd think Bisping would win around 80% of the time. I'd likely bet moderate-large or large on him. As it is now, I'm playing Bisping and Vitor wins in round 1, neither for any real money. Also making some action parlays that I expect to lose.

158717962-1	1/18/13 4:27pm	$10.00	$1,387.88	Pending	15 Team Parlay
				Pending	1/19/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Michael Bisping -115* vs Vitor Belfort
				Pending	1/19/13 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Diego Nunes -160* vs Nik Lentz
				Pending	1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -220* vs John Dodson
				Pending	1/26/13 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1201 Anthony Pettis -115* vs Donald Cerrone
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo -250* vs Frankie Edgar
				Pending	2/2/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -425* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
				Pending	2/2/13 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Alistair Overeem -350* vs Antonio Silva
				Pending	2/23/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ronda Rousey -1175* vs Liz Carmouche
				Pending	2/23/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Lyoto Machida -225* vs Dan Henderson
				Pending	2/23/13 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1201 Urijah Faber -380* vs Ivan Menjivar
				Pending	3/16/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Georges St-Pierre -450* vs Nick Diaz
				Pending	3/16/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rory MacDonald -195* vs Carlos Condit
				Pending	4/20/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ben Henderson -210* vs Gilbert Melendez
				Pending	4/20/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Daniel Cormier -350* vs Frank Mir
				Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen


158716624-1	1/18/13 4:16pm	$50.00	$513.31	Pending	9 Team Parlay
				Pending	1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -220* vs John Dodson
				Pending	2/2/13 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Alistair Overeem -350* vs Antonio Silva
				Pending	2/23/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ronda Rousey -1175* vs Liz Carmouche
				Pending	2/23/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Lyoto Machida -225* vs Dan Henderson
				Pending	3/16/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Georges St-Pierre -450* vs Nick Diaz
				Pending	3/16/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rory MacDonald -195* vs Carlos Condit
				Pending	4/20/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Ben Henderson -210* vs Gilbert Melendez
				Pending	4/20/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Daniel Cormier -350* vs Frank Mir
				Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen

Looking forward to getting back to handicapping on the 23rd, as the only fight I've had the chance to properly handicap since before Christmas was the Curran/Pitbull fight, of which my girlfriend was kind enough to watch some footage with me. UFC on Fox 6 will be the first card I've gotten the chance to study since UFC 155, and I'm hoping to continue my current streak of winning events.

**Sacrelicious** · 01-18-13, 05:06 PM

Hm, interesting. We are on almost all the same plays for those fights over the next few months, but I am not placing any real money on this card, I'm not too interested in it and have not put the time into handicapping it. My only real bet is Nunes/Lentz goes to decision, threw a couple bucks on the main card just for fun, but thats all.

Look forward to continued conversations man. I have two days off and have already got a good idea of my Fox plays, I'ma be watching Bellator tape.

**Sacrelicious** · 01-18-13, 05:07 PM

And I know those are all super favorites and not serious plays, but they are for the most part, essentially correct.

MD · 01-18-13, 05:48 PM

I look forward to it too, buddy. Let's cash.

Some other random pittance plays: Rothwell dec +815, Craig dec +788, Pepey +170.

Should also point out that I'm a big Vitor fan and would love to see him win, although even I can't root for that haircut. Also a Bisping fan, so it's a win-win for me.

**Sacrelicious** · 01-18-13, 06:39 PM

Yeahhh I'm taking a card off except for one play and some shits and giggles fun.

Next card is where the mayhem begins.

**Sacrelicious** · 01-18-13, 06:40 PM

Glad to see you are on Pettis as well, I managed to him him at +110.

MD · 01-18-13, 07:02 PM

I have a large play on Cerrone which I intended to arb out of; read the line movement wrong, worked against me. Oh well, live and learn.

**JamesKim** · 01-18-13, 07:59 PM

I'll be on Cerrone as well, but I think Pettis will be around a moderate favorite before fight time, so I'm waiting on that.

I don't see how you think Bisping survives Vitor, I think Vitor will cream Bisping. The way that Vitor strikes is very similar to how Akiyama strikes, except Vitor has multiple times more power and much faster hands. If you saw how many times Bisping got tagged, I don't see how you can't expect Vitor to do the same, except he WILL swarm when he gets Bisping hurt and he'll get the finish.

**Sacrelicious** · 01-18-13, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by MD

I have a large play on Cerrone which I intended to arb out of; read the line movement wrong, worked against me. Oh well, live and learn.

Yeah I recall you saying you took a large play out on Cowboy to arb out of later. Do you mind if I ask what you meant by this?

**Sacrelicious** · 01-18-13, 08:09 PM

Originally posted by JamesKim

I'll be on Cerrone as well, but I think Pettis will be around a moderate favorite before fight time, so I'm waiting on that.

I don't see how you think Bisping survives Vitor, I think Vitor will cream Bisping. The way that Vitor strikes is very similar to how Akiyama strikes, except Vitor has multiple times more power and much faster hands. If you saw how many times Bisping got tagged, I don't see how you can't expect Vitor to do the same, except he WILL swarm when he gets Bisping hurt and he'll get the finish.

Ehh... I mean its possible... sure.

At the current lines Bisping is the logical play, however.

MD · 01-18-13, 09:08 PM

PM'd.

**Vaughany** · 01-19-13, 06:06 AM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Yeah I recall you saying you took a large play out on Cowboy to arb out of later. Do you mind if I ask what you meant by this?

You bet on fighter as you expect the line will move in your favour. Like I saw Pettis at +110 and knew he'd get the action so I maxed it on Bookmaker. Im now in a position where I can either stick with the Pettis play at +110 or could bet on Cerrone at Evens or possible better come fight time and have a risk free play on either.