MD's House of Winnerz

[MD]

Been posting my picks in the the event threads a lot recently, so I figured making a thread to house them would be more appropriate.

For now, I bring you this gem from Paddy Power support:

Jemma G Hi, my name is Jemma G. How may I help you?
Jemma G Good evening.
Jemma G Can I have your name please?
You Hello, I'm wondering about an offer you have on the Georges St-Pierre vs Carlos Condit MMA fight.
You My name is ***.
You http://www.paddypower.com/bet/ufc-mma/ufc-matches/George-St-Pierre-v-Carlos-Condit-4468458.html
You "If either fighter wins by submission we will refund all losing match bets on the fight!"
You Does this include props? If I bet on Georges St-Pierre by decision, will I receive my money back should the fight end in submission?
You The conditions say it applies to all single bets, but I wanted to be sure.
Jemma G Yes ***, as long as you place a single match bet then it will qualify.

SEVERAL MINUTES LATER, AFTER I HAVE BET ON ST-PIERRE BY DECISION

Jemma G Apologies ***, I've double checked the terms and this particular bet wouldn't apply as it is only bets placed on the match betting market that apply.
Jemma G Ie. St Pierre to win outright.

[Mercersux]

Did they at least refund your bet? Considering they misled you on the promotion they were running.

[Vaughany]

ha I did wonder this the other day but noticed it said "on match price" so "match" meant on betting straight-up on either fighter.

[MD]

They eventually refunded my bet, but she took so long that a bunch of lines were taken down. Had to "consult her supervisor".

Arbing Kampmann bet, and gonna bet on him again when his odds inevitably go back to >/=+110. Arbing Siler and Riddle, also.

Updated:

Kampmann moderate (+arb)
Riddle moderate (+arb)
Siler small-moderate (+arb)
Bocek small
GSP by decision large
GSP by unanimous decision large
Condit wins KO of the night small (Punisher <3)

Riddle/Siler/Bocek: +598
Philipou/Riddle/Siler: +329
Carmont/St-Pierre dec./Philippou dec./Siler/Riddle/Bocek/Hominick: +5165
Carmont/Philippou/Cote/Riddle/Hominick: +450

I'm pounding Kampmann at +125 on PP, and Hendricks at -112 on 5D.

Hedging my Bocek bet.

Lost all of my shitty parlays. Bought out of the Bocek bet, lost on Siler, lost hard on Kampmann, and crushed on GSP and Riddle. In straight bets, I made enough for it to be a pretty good card, but factoring in arbs (including my pounding of Kampmann+125/Hendricks -112 on PP/5D), I had an outstanding card. This is my biggest winning night in quite some time, and I feel like I did a pretty good job of picking arb-able fights (although I should have known Dos Anjos would be the side the public would take, and I feel like I have some more work to do for betting Bocek).

Great night.

[MD]

http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1306613/Chico_and_the_man_medium.gif

Cutest gay couple ever.

[MD]

Hatton/Berto moderate @ +101
Hatton/Diaz-Henderson goes distance/Gus-Rua goes distance small @ +236

Honestly considering a play on Rua by decision, also.

[Crassus]

^^ Rough night hoss.

[MD]

Rough indeed. Senchenko is a stiff, and I wasn't expecting his stationary jab to go unexploited; considered Hatton pretty great parlay filler. He's looked in quite good shape and very motivated. I'm a bit surprised at the outcome, but oh well, live and learn.

[Mercersux]

Rough indeed. Senchenko is a stiff, and I wasn't expecting his stationary jab to go unexploited; considered Hatton pretty great parlay filler. He's looked in quite good shape and very motivated. I'm a bit surprised at the outcome, but oh well, live and learn.

Was surprised so many people were riding Hatton so hard in that fight. Could definitely see ways for Hatton to take it but The variables were just too hard to ignore. The value was just to overwhelming on the other side. Any leans on the other fight tonight? (Berto-Guerrero)

[Crassus]

Was surprised so many people were riding Hatton so hard in that fight. Could definitely see ways for Hatton to take it but The variables were just too hard to ignore. The value was just to overwhelming on the other side. Any leans on the other fight tonight? (Berto-Guerrero)

What made you like Senchenko?

[woodsyallin]

i had senchenko im all in on berto for 3 thousand

[varkolek]

I'm on over 9.5 rounds @ 1.62 hedged against Guerrero by KO @ odds better than 6.

I had seen Guerrero fight before, probably against Katsidis. And I didn't think he'd get knocked out by Berto. But then after betting the over 9.5 I watched Berto's match with Ortiz and he looked a bit vulnerable there. Ortiz of course hits extremely hard but I thought it's possible Guerrero might get a tko due to an accumulation of punches.

I guess it's possible Berto gets the KO since Guerrero was dropped by a right jab from Casamayor, and Berto is more explosive with his right hand. But I think it probably won't happen.

The bet I've placed above isn't very profitable, if I could go back I'd hedge Berto by Decision @ ~4 against Guerrero straight at better than 2.5.

[Mercersux]

What made you like Senchenko?

I wasn't completely convinced that Hatton wouldn't win this fight but I was in a situation where i couldn't talk myself into believing there was any sort of value at the prices you were getting for Hatton in what i looked at as a coin flip fight. Hatton may be 34 but guy has close to fifty fights to his credit. I believe that he was seriously close to being a shot fighter when he left the sport in 09 and the way he left didn't make me feel any better about this fight either. (likely one of the most vicious knockouts i can ever remember) The only way i saw this fight going for Senchenko was by K.O anyways because i would never trust a decision in a fighters backyard. Too many times have fighters & bettors been burned by bs decisions in boxing. Love the sports but it's as crooked as hell.

[JamesKim]

i had senchenko im all in on berto for 3 thousand

I bet you regret that real bad.

[Mercersux]

Wonder how many gambler's tore up their Berto tickets after the first two round ??? There was no way i thought this fight was going longer than five with the way Berto's eye blew up. Definitely a gamer tho.

[Crassus]

I wasn't completely convinced that Hatton wouldn't win this fight but I was in a situation where i couldn't talk myself into believing there was any sort of value at the prices you were getting for Hatton in what i looked at as a coin flip fight. Hatton may be 34 but guy has close to fifty fights to his credit. I believe that he was seriously close to being a shot fighter when he left the sport in 09 and the way he left didn't make me feel any better about this fight either. (likely one of the most vicious knockouts i can ever remember) The only way i saw this fight going for Senchenko was by K.O anyways because i would never trust a decision in a fighters backyard. Too many times have fighters & bettors been burned by bs decisions in boxing. Love the sports but it's as crooked as hell.

Interesting point of view. I figured the opposite, that because of Hattons layoff and brutal KO, his management and coaches wouldn't allow a fighter who was a legitimate threat to Hatton. Plus I was unimpressed with Senchenko overall.

[MD]

Rather than arb out of my Good bet, I decided to freeroll by arbing and then re-betting the profit on Good (EDIT: originally said I was on Korehskov, I'm on Good, mental lapse.) I think a Koreshkov knockout is somewhat likely, but a Good wrestling clinic is a strong possibility, also. I want Koreshkov to win, so it'll be a fun night for me either way.
Rickels/Sarnavskiy parlay, Kala Hose small, Trout by decision small for value.

[MD]

Rather than arb out of my Good bet, I decided to freeroll by arbing and then re-betting the profit on Good (EDIT: originally said I was on Korehskov, I'm on Good, mental lapse.) I think a Koreshkov knockout is somewhat likely, but a Good wrestling clinic is a strong possibility, also. I want Koreshkov to win, so it'll be a fun night for me either way.
Rickels/Sarnavskiy parlay, Kala Hose small, Trout by decision small for value.

Lost my freeroll, cashed the parlay, which covers my Hose loss and more. Small profit guaranteed even if Trout loses; good stuff.

[sideloaded]

Why are you touting Nate Diaz as a square bet? I'm sorry but that just seems weird

[MD]

Why are you touting Nate Diaz as a square bet? I'm sorry but that just seems weird

I think Ben Henderson should be closer to -350 than -150. I don't see how Nate can be justified as a solid bet when Henderson has at least two clear and easily achieved routes to victory. Nate Diaz bettors are pretty much relying on Henderson not executing any sort of effective gameplan and playing into Nate's game.

[Sacrelicious]

I think Ben Henderson should be closer to -350 than -150. I don't see how Nate can be justified as a solid bet when Henderson has at least two clear and easily achieved routes to victory. Nate Diaz bettors are pretty much relying on Henderson not executing any sort of effective gameplan and playing into Nate's game.

-350 seems a bit of a stretch, personally I'd have it a little closer to -250. That being said I fully agree with everything said here and am going hard on Hendo at -160. May hedge with diaz by sub as fight time approaches, but I think this is a very safe play.

[MD]

-350 seems a bit of a stretch, personally I'd have it a little closer to -250. That being said I fully agree with everything said here and am going hard on Hendo at -160. May hedge with diaz by sub as fight time approaches, but I think this is a very safe play.

At this point, I'd suggest playing the Henderson by decision props, and the "fight goes distance" prop. A "fight goes distance" play (at -185 right now; ridiculous odds) hedged with Diaz by sub hits at least 90% of the time, I think.

[Sacrelicious]

Thats the plan, I'm new this though so I'm still waiting for some of the books to approve my accounts, money transfers to go through, etc. The book I'm at right now doesnt offer props till fight night, but I intend to make a small play on fight goes distance as well. Cheers man, heres to both of us cashing in a bit.

[MD]

Trout by decision small for value.

Took Trout +400 live in play.

Big weekend right here. Made some small profit on Bellator and some substantial profit on Trout. Strong week of profits after doing somewhat badly last week.

[MD]

Large on Cerrone -116. Got a lot of interesting plays for this fight, but this one is just for arbing later.

[MD]

Shamhalaev +140
Nijem -150
Large on Easton -155 (may have moved that line once myself)
Stephens -170 (arbed out already)
Small on Swick at +150

Hitting these opening lines like a champ.

Waited too long to pull the trigger on an Albert play and the odds dropped. Still considering it, just a little. I've bet on him every time and I don't know if I'll stop now.

EDIT: Gonna tail Jessica Eye if the line improves.

[MD]

1-0 on Bellator, since the Shamhalaev fight was cancelled. Was a moderate bet, so not a bad night.

Did any of you get refunded for your Shamhalaev bets?

[NunyaBidness]

1-0 on Bellator, since the Shamhalaev fight was cancelled. Was a moderate bet, so not a bad night.

Did any of you get refunded for your Shamhalaev bets?

Si, everywhere.

[MD]

Si, everywhere.

Thanks. That's what I figured; shame, since I BTCL. Oh well, I wasn't particularly confident in the play, either way.

Large on Cerrone -116. Got a lot of interesting plays for this fight, but this one is just for arbing later.

Still expecting late steam on Cerrone. Possibly not, though, we'll see.

[Beelzebubzy]

Shamhalaev +140
Nijem -150
Large on Easton -155 (may have moved that line once myself)
Stephens -170 (arbed out already)
Small on Swick at +150

Hitting these opening lines like a champ.

Waited too long to pull the trigger on an Albert play and the odds dropped. Still considering it, just a little. I've bet on him every time and I don't know if I'll stop now.

EDIT: Gonna tail Jessica Eye if the line improves.

Similar plays here. I have a free rol on Brown at +145 but I bombed on FunSize tonight

[NunyaBidness]

Si, everywhere.

Let me correct myself, and going through my records, it was cancelled at 5dimes, bookmaker, and betdsi. BUT, its still open on Sportsbook. Which is a-ok with me since I got it at +170.

[MD]

Not sure if I posted this, but:

					4 Team Parlay
				Pending	12/8/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 603 Marquez/Pacquiao goes distance -210* vs Fight won't go distance
				Pending	12/8/12 10:00pm Props Fighting 1003 Diaz/Henderson goes 5 round distance -160* vs Fight won't go 5 round distance
				Pending	12/8/12 9:30pm Props Fighting 1114 Fight not a draw -20000* vs Gustafsson/Rua draw
				Pending	12/8/12 8:30pm Props Fighting 1203 Penn/MacDonald goes 3 round distance -130* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance

Moderate parlay; liking it a lot. +325 or there abouts, I believe.

Mentioned I was big on Henderson by decision and unanimous decision; Diaz by sub hedge; small plays on BJ ITD and Gus/Shogun goes to decision; small play on Marquez by decision.

Heartbroken about the Albert loss. I didn't bet on him, but I really, really like him, and it sucks to see him go out like that.

[MD]

Said I wouldn't, can't resist: took Penn small +286 on Pinnacle.

[MD]

Need either the parlay to hit, or Henderson to win, for a good winning night.

[MD]

A wise man once said, "Nate Diaz is a square bet".

Shamhalaev +140
Nijem -150
Large on Easton -155 (may have moved that line once myself)
Stephens -170 (arbed out already)
Small on Swick at +150

Hitting these opening lines like a champ.

Waited too long to pull the trigger on an Albert play and the odds dropped. Still considering it, just a little. I've bet on him every time and I don't know if I'll stop now.

EDIT: Gonna tail Jessica Eye if the line improves.

Mentioned I was big on Henderson by decision and unanimous decision; Diaz by sub hedge; small plays on BJ ITD and Gus/Shogun goes to decision; small play on Marquez by decision.

Cashed on Nijem moderate and Shogun/Gus goes the distance small, flopped on Easton large, and the small BJ/Swick plays.

Cashed this absolute monster of a parlay (minus the Weidman leg), which I was huge on:

MD's "Go Big or Go F-ck Yourself" parlay of the year.

GSP by decision, Benson Henderson by decision, Chris Weidman; +393. Mother penetrating value. Add Jones at -800 to get +455. Ridiculous. Pretty confident I'm going to make bank on this parlay.

Really close to cashing this one, also:

Not sure if I posted this, but:

					4 Team Parlay
				Pending	12/8/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 603 Marquez/Pacquiao goes distance -210* vs Fight won't go distance
				Pending	12/8/12 10:00pm Props Fighting 1003 Diaz/Henderson goes 5 round distance -160* vs Fight won't go 5 round distance
				Pending	12/8/12 9:30pm Props Fighting 1114 Fight not a draw -20000* vs Gustafsson/Rua draw
				Pending	12/8/12 8:30pm Props Fighting 1203 Penn/MacDonald goes 3 round distance -130* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance

Moderate parlay; liking it a lot. +325 or there abouts, I believe.

Really, really great night. If Marquez/Pacquiao goes the distance, it'll be even better. Either way, huge profits, and looking forward to the Smashes finale card before I take a break for a month.