MD's House of Winnerz

[Mercersux]

Great hit MD. Think you have to give Hendo some credit now don't ya. Masterpiece of a gameplan. Kind of shocked how feeble he made Diaz look. GJ bud. Great night for mostly everyone on the board it looks like.

[Vaughany]

Best decision was arbing out of Lil Heathen play. I should of done that, would of made double what I did make had I done tht

[MD]

Great hit MD. Think you have to give Hendo some credit now don't ya. Masterpiece of a gameplan. Kind of shocked how feeble he made Diaz look. GJ bud. Great night for mostly everyone on the board it looks like.

Thanks man, appreciate it. When I was searching for the post on that GSP/Bendo/Weidman parlay from a month or so ago, I noticed that you were one of the few who said he liked the play; hope you cashed.

As I said, biggest parlay of the year for me, and one of my biggest plays of the year on Henderson, so I'm pretty ecstatic with my results right now, which meant I wasn't paying too much attention to the details of the fight; I was mostly happy that he was grinding Nate and wasn't threatening with the finish too heavily, but if I think about it rationally, you're completely right, it was a fantastic gameplan. He executed it to a tee and made very few mistakes. Good work indeed, Bendo. Good work indeed.

[MD]

Best decision was arbing out of Lil Heathen play. I should of done that, would of made double what I did make had I done tht

I had forgotten I arbed out of the play, so when Stephens got knocked the penetrate out, I was complaining to my girlfriend. Then I checked my thread, realized I had arbed, and said "wait, I just remembered... I arbed out of the Stephens play, I didn't actually lose". Luca Fury would be proud.

[Mercersux]

Thanks man, appreciate it. When I was searching for the post on that GSP/Bendo/Weidman parlay from a month or so ago, I noticed that you were one of the few who said he liked the play; hope you cashed.

As I said, biggest parlay of the year for me, and one of my biggest plays of the year on Henderson, so I'm pretty ecstatic with my results right now, which meant I wasn't paying too much attention to the details of the fight; I was mostly happy that he was grinding Nate and wasn't threatening with the finish too heavily, but if I think about it rationally, you're completely right, it was a fantastic gameplan. He executed it to a tee and made very few mistakes. Good work indeed, Bendo. Good work indeed.

Yeah im in the middle of a Trout/Hendo/JDS parlay. Might need your advice on how to proceed with it but for another time. Cheers bro.

[Beelzebubzy]

Best decision was arbing out of Lil Heathen play. I should of done that, would of made double what I did make had I done tht

Can you afford a DVD?

[MD]

Yeah im in the middle of a Trout/Hendo/JDS parlay. Might need your advice on how to proceed with it but for another time. Cheers bro.

Conventional wisdom is that JDS will cash; I disagree, but a lot of sharps don't, so there's a decent chance I'm wrong. I used to be really high on JDS (the Mir fight was my biggest play this year), but I'm not so sure any more.

I probably won't be here to lock in a play (which means that I won't play the line, as I expect Cane to approach +180 by fight night), but to be completely honest, I think that if JDS doesn't win in the first, he's going to get absolutely smoked. I like Cain a -lot- in this fight.

[Mercersux]

Conventional wisdom is that JDS will cash; I disagree, but a lot of sharps don't, so there's a decent chance I'm wrong. I used to be really high on JDS (the Mir fight was my biggest play this year), but I'm not so sure any more.

I probably won't be here to lock in a play (which means that I won't play the line, as I expect Cane to approach +180 by fight night), but to be completely honest, I think that if JDS doesn't win in the first, he's going to get absolutely smoked. I like Cain a -lot- in this fight.

Yeah i am really scared for this fight. JDS should not be a -155 fav in this fight and that's what price I got at the time. Regretting it but its locked in now. Im thinking I might try to squeeze what value I can out of playing Cain str8 and walk away from it. Just more I think about the first fight more I know Cain wasn't Cain and he has a hell of a chance to win this. Have to check what the odds are on Cain @ 5D and go from there.

[MD]

It's fundamentally a bad decision to hedge a parlay, at almost all times. If Cain moves to +200 or there abouts, then maybe consider it. Otherwise, just let it ride, I'd say. You may or may not lose the play, but it's correct from a theory and EV perspective not to hedge.

[Mercersux]

It's fundamentally a bad decision to hedge a parlay, at almost all times. If Cain moves to +200 or there abouts, then maybe consider it. Otherwise, just let it ride, I'd say. You may or may not lose the play, but it's correct from a theory and EV perspective not to hedge.

yeah if Cain moves the other way it would suck but I personally think it'll gradually get closer to a pk. Might get a small bump in value but nothing major. How about not hedging The parlay but throwing an amount on Cain's to protect the base bet?

[MD]

yeah if Cain moves the other way it would suck but I personally think it'll gradually get closer to a pk. Might get a small bump in value but nothing major. How about not hedging The parlay but throwing an amount on Cain's to protect the base bet?

If you have a straight play on JDS, a hedge would be acceptable, yeah. Just try to avoid hedging parlays in these types of situations. I understand you're locked into it now so it's too late, but best to let it ride for the odds you're receiving.

Also,

I MISSED MY PARLAY AND I DON'T GIVE A F-UCK.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

F-CK YOU PACQUIAO. F-CK YOU. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

[bjpenn85]

I very often hedge parlays. Done it for years, and cant remember have lost both the parlay and the hedge. what exactly do you mean? To bet on 2 fighters SU and then hedging with one of them, in that you lose value betting both sides? Or do you mean that my yesterdays play: Rory and Benson/diaz goes the distance hedged with BJ inside distance is generally a bad idea, in the long run?

[Vaughany]

Can you afford a DVD?

ha yeah just about, made about £340 last night! My soccer plays today my put me back in the red though so shall see!

[MD]

I very often hedge parlays. Done it for years, and cant remember have lost both the parlay and the hedge. what exactly do you mean? To bet on 2 fighters SU and then hedging with one of them, in that you lose value betting both sides? Or do you mean that my yesterdays play: Rory and Benson/diaz goes the distance hedged with BJ inside distance is generally a bad idea, in the long run?

I've always known that, mathematically, hedging parlays reduces your long-term profit, but I wasn't aware of the math behind it until about a month ago when I saw Nunya discuss the topic, stating that hedging parlays is a losing play, and decided to look into it a bit more; it's a common mistake.

You're generally better off not even playing the leg of the parlay that you intend to hedge, rather than play it and then hedge it. In the long term, it can significantly dent your profit. I looked into the subject extensively and the one possible exception I found was in large (selection-wise, not money-wise) parlays, as I can't find solid math to prove that hedging large parlays is fundamentally unsound. I say I "can't", but I suppose it'd be better to say I "didn't", as I didn't exactly search for this math very hard.

[Vaughany]

ha yeah just about, made about £340 last night! My soccer plays today my put me back in the red though so shall see!

Scratch that, perhaps I'll buy the VHS, DVD and Blu-Ray after hitting this just now!...

7:05am 9-Dec-12

9-Dec-12

Soccer Handicap

VVV Venlo (0 and +0.5) vs Vitesse Arnhem for Game. [Live! 2-1]

-128

2,560.00

2,000.00

6:51am 9-Dec-12

9-Dec-12

Soccer Handicap

VVV Venlo (0 and +0.5) vs Vitesse Arnhem for Game. [Live! 2-1]

+116

250.00

290.00

8:33am 5-Dec-12

9-Dec-12

Soccer Handicap

VVV Venlo vs Vitesse Arnhem (-1) for Game.

+113

250.00

-250.00

[NunyaBidness]

I've always known that, mathematically, hedging parlays reduces your long-term profit, but I wasn't aware of the math behind it until about a month ago when I saw Nunya discuss the topic, stating that hedging parlays is a losing play, and decided to look into it a bit more; it's a common mistake.

You're generally better off not even playing the leg of the parlay that you intend to hedge, rather than play it and then hedge it. In the long term, it can significantly dent your profit. I looked into the subject extensively and the one possible exception I found was in large (selection-wise, not money-wise) parlays, as I can't find solid math to prove that hedging large parlays is fundamentally unsound. I say I "can't", but I suppose it'd be better to say I "didn't", as I didn't exactly search for this math very hard.

Utility Theory is what you're looking for.

Hedging large parlays (or any plays) can occasionally be correct if, a) your bankroll has diminished since the play was initiated, b) new information has come in that changes your mind about the EV of the play or c) if the hedge was a mathematically sound part of your initial play. (For example betting Easton at openers knowing the line was going to move in order to extract a better price on Assuncao later).

[NunyaBidness]

I very often hedge parlays. Done it for years, and cant remember have lost both the parlay and the hedge. what exactly do you mean? To bet on 2 fighters SU and then hedging with one of them, in that you lose value betting both sides? Or do you mean that my yesterdays play: Rory and Benson/diaz goes the distance hedged with BJ inside distance is generally a bad idea, in the long run?

This is a semi-different situation. I've discussed it before in detail.

Let's ignore the Benson goes the distance situation for now, and look at the hedge of Rory with BJ inside. I believe Rory was -260 at market average, and BJ inside was something like +400. At those prices, you've combined your bet to equal Not BJ by decision at -1400. That is probably a fair price, but you may have been able to get a better price by betting that straight. Frequently when people make these 'straddles' they don't realize they are laying -2000 or -3000 for something they could get at -500 or so.

There are good spots for these however. For example, last night, one could've gotten Marquez by Dec at +335 with Pacquaio by dec at +160, which would've given you: Fight goes the distance at -159 when the market was sitting at -195.

[NunyaBidness]

There are good spots for these however. For example, last night, one could've gotten Marquez by Dec at +335 with Pacquaio by dec at +160, which would've given you: Fight goes the distance at -159 when the market was sitting at -195.

Quoting myself, lol.

I was actually surprised last night that was available within 5dimes itself, further you could've arbed it by taking fight doesn't go the distance ALSO at 5dimes. With the number of props they have available, I would've assumed that certain props were a function of other props and would adjust automagically. I guess not.

[PunisherIND]

Quoting myself, lol.

I was actually surprised last night that was available within 5dimes itself, further you could've arbed it by taking fight doesn't go the distance ALSO at 5dimes. With the number of props they have available, I would've assumed that certain props were a function of other props and would adjust automagically. I guess not.

not sure if this was an intentional typo, but it made me chuckle.

and this is interesting. i guess we shouldnt just assume that the straddle will always have worse odds. you would think they have this stuff programmed to adjust automagically, but then again, you always see nonsense lines at 5dimes like a SU line that pays better than ITD; or ITD that pays better than TKO.

[Vaughany]

ha yea I like the variation!

[Vaughany]

ha yeah no way 5dimes have any sort of system! It's a mess usually, lines all over the shot

[NunyaBidness]

not sure if this was an intentional typo, but it made me chuckle.

It was on purpose, it's an old UNIX nerd term.

[NunyaBidness]

ha yeah no way 5dimes have any sort of system! It's a mess usually, lines all over the shot

Yeah, I guess you're right. Especially since they program their 'bonus casino' games on a whim and occasionally offer something with gigantic value and then get pissed when something takes advantage.

It's just surprising in this day and age they can't pay a programmer to tie the lines in together.

But, of course, this whole industry is backwards, with the unsecure use of passwords and lack of HTTPS on many books.

[MD]

Posting this 8-teamer, since it's reasonably close to hitting.

				Pending	8 Team Parlay
				Win	12/8/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Alexander Gustafsson -210* vs Mauricio Rua
				Cancelled	12/29/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Chris Weidman -400* vs Tim Boetsch
				Pending	1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -230* vs John Dodson
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo -265* vs Frankie Edgar
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -475* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
				Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen
				Win	11/17/12 11:59pm Props Fighting 1047 St-Pierre wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec. -160* vs Any other result
				Win	12/8/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 1011 Henderson wins by 5 round decision +116* vs Not Henderson by 5 round decision

Not sure if I already posted it, but yeah. Just under +1600 (although that included Weidman).

Anyway, my bets. Took me a while to think them over as there's so many fights on, so I missed a few of the opening lines. Was lucky to hit Poirier, however, as he was an obvious large play for me.

Brad Scott +160 small, Norman Parke +105 moderate-large, Manny Rodrigues small +160, Matt Mitrione small +210, Jamie Varner small -110, Poirier large -170, Colton Smith moderate +230, Ross Pearson moderate +115, Lombard/Poirier parlay, moderate. Got a moderate arb on the Del Rosario/Barry fight, also. EDIT: Beltran +300 small.

Here's to a good weekend.

[ShotgunRua]

That parlay looks pretty nailed on now I'd say. Only guy with a reasonable chance of stopping you here is Frankie Edgar IMO.

[gabe]

Dodson.

[PunisherIND]

Dodson.

close to pulling the trigger on dodson myself. waiting (hoping) he reaches +200.

[ShotgunRua]

MM decision for me. I try to avoid props but when it's a MM fight why not.

[MD]

I expect Mighty Mouse to absolutely hammer Dodson; I think he's better in all areas, and although Dodson impresses me, I don't expect it to be too difficult a fight for Johnson. Edgar worried me originally, but my problem with that fight is that I can't think of one clear route to victory that Edgar has that can't be shut down by Aldo's leg kicks. If I had to say whom I'm most worried about, it would probably be Nog, surprisingly. I give Chael almost literally no chance against Jones. It will take nothing short of a heart attack for Chael to win that fight. There's massive value even at -1000.

[ShotgunRua]

Jones will win, Sonnen has no way whatsoever to finish Jones and he's unlikely to last the full 5 rounds intact, however I think everyone is going to be surprised how well he performs for however long he lasts. I genuinely think Jones will need some time to wear Sonnen down, he doesn't hit with the accuracy and timing of Anderson, and he will probably be reluctant to shoot in given his perceived striking advantage. I see Jones missing a big strike and finding Sonnen in his face, he might even be able to get him on his back.

Biggest problem for Sonnen is he needs the 25 minutes, and Jones will adapt before then. I think it will be similar to the Machida fight, Jones having some difficulty in round 1, maybe even 2, but ultimately Chael's getting finished.

[Vaughany]

Posting this 8-teamer, since it's reasonably close to hitting.

				Pending	8 Team Parlay
				Win	12/8/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Alexander Gustafsson -210* vs Mauricio Rua
				Cancelled	12/29/12 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Chris Weidman -400* vs Tim Boetsch
				Pending	1/26/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Demetrious Johnson -230* vs John Dodson
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jose Aldo -265* vs Frankie Edgar
				Pending	2/2/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rashad Evans -475* vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
				Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -1050* vs Chael Sonnen
				Win	11/17/12 11:59pm Props Fighting 1047 St-Pierre wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec. -160* vs Any other result
				Win	12/8/12 11:00pm Props Fighting 1011 Henderson wins by 5 round decision +116* vs Not Henderson by 5 round decision

Not sure if I already posted it, but yeah. Just under +1600 (although that included Weidman).

Anyway, my bets. Took me a while to think them over as there's so many fights on, so I missed a few of the opening lines. Was lucky to hit Poirier, however, as he was an obvious large play for me.

Brad Scott +160 small, Norman Parke +105 moderate-large, Manny Rodrigues small +160, Matt Mitrione small +210, Jamie Varner small -110, Poirier large -170, Colton Smith moderate +230, Ross Pearson moderate +115, Lombard/Poirier parlay, moderate. Got a moderate arb on the Del Rosario/Barry fight, also. EDIT: Beltran +300 small.

Here's to a good weekend.

Like the Parke and Manny plays. THink Parke should be slight favourite like it came out, and Manny fight is pick-em. TUF Smashes was pretty much the "Freakshow Show"! He got way more airtime than anybody else.

[Vaughany]

I expect Mighty Mouse to absolutely hammer Dodson; I think he's better in all areas, and although Dodson impresses me, I don't expect it to be too difficult a fight for Johnson. Edgar worried me originally, but my problem with that fight is that I can't think of one clear route to victory that Edgar has that can't be shut down by Aldo's leg kicks. If I had to say whom I'm most worried about, it would probably be Nog, surprisingly. I give Chael almost literally no chance against Jones. It will take nothing short of a heart attack for Chael to win that fight. There's massive value even at -1000.

yeah Rashad is going to find it hard to finish Nog so anybody backing Shad is going to be relying on him mixing up and taking a decision for three rounds.

[MD]

Taking Jansen -165, Hale -155.

[NunyaBidness]

Taking Jansen -165, Hale -155.

You should wait on that Hale, those lines are gonna flip.

[MD]

You should wait on that Hale, those lines are gonna flip.

I was considering it, but I'm not entirely sure. I think Jansen's going to see action and Hale is going to move to around -170. May be wrong though.