MD's House of Winnerz

[Rubber Guard]

Good stuff.

For your record books, I'll be up as long as Barao wins, even if Swanson loses and the decision prop bombs.

What would you call it up if Barao wins and everything else loses? Up small-moderate or moderate?

[MD]

What would you call it up if Barao wins and everything else loses? Up small-moderate or moderate?

No clue. I'd definitely be up more than just a moderate-sized bet, though. I got about as much money as I can get on a prop on Gunnar by decision in the +400 range, which alone was a moderate-sized bet. I'll let you do the math on that one. That and my moderate-large cash on Gunnar straight more than cover my early losses.

[MD]

Swanson looked like a savage in that fight. Up now no matter what.

[MD]

Adding more on Barao at -277. Odd to see Mayday get the late steam. This'll be my... second biggest wager of the year. The Mighty Mouse wager was roughly the same size when you include props.

[MD]

Props: Sass by submission +200 and +160 small-moderate, Barao by decision +152 small-moderate, Swanson by decision +574 small, Gunnar Nelson by decision +431 moderate, Jimmo by decision +514 small, Manuwa/Diabate over 1.5 +150 small-moderate.

As for my straight plays, Nedkov +100 small-moderate, Swanson -150 and -105 moderate-large, Barao -283 (and some other assorted lines, most of which are under -300) large, Diabate +210 moderate, Riddle +215 moderate, Nelson -175 moderate-large. Just played Grispi by submission +335 small

Adding more on Barao at -277. Odd to see Mayday get the late steam. This'll be my... second biggest wager of the year.

This is one of the best weekends I've ever had in gambling, when you factor in the Bellator and MFC cards. Very, very pleased with my results. Also, very impressed with McDonald. I was not expecting him to be able to give Barao such a hard time. The main card was fantastic, also. Great performances all around.

[Sacrelicious]

Very nicely done man, congrats.

[Vaughany]

This is one of the best weekends I've ever had in gambling, when you factor in the Bellator and MFC cards. Very, very pleased with my results. Also, very impressed with McDonald. I was not expecting him to be able to give Barao such a hard time. The main card was fantastic, also. Great performances all around.

solid night, congrats. And yes McDonald impressed me too, hopefully he'll get Faber next

[Grabaka]

Well done cabron

[MD]

Thanks buddies, appreciate it.

Don't have much time, so just posting my Bellator play for now: Baker +210 moderate. The guy is well-rounded, has very good kicks, solid wrestling, good defence, and all the tools to make Lima gas hard. I honestly think it's his fight to lose.

[Sacrelicious]

Oh shit, I'm on Lima, I'm ******.

[MD]

Nah, it's a very close fight with a slight lean to Baker, in my opinion. I think there's no value on Lima in the -200 range, but it's a very winnable fight for him if he can stay off the cage, off of his back, and out of that dangerous range where he's too far away to punch, but close enough to be kicked.

[MD]

'Sup buddehs? Not gonna lie and say I've spent as much time studying this week as I did playing Mass Effect, but here are my plays, regardless.

I'm large on Lyoto Machida. I think he's far too slick for Henderson, and I find a Henderson KO to be extremely unlikely. I think Henderson can win a decision, in the same vein as Rampage, but Machida just wins this fight too often for anything short of a large play. I also have a small-moderate play on Machida by decision +132 and +115.
Schaub moderate. I'd be moderate-large or large on this if it weren't a heavyweight fight; Schaub can take Lavar down, and he can submit him. It's as simple as that. A larger bet isn't warranted at near-even odds simply because Schaub may choose not to do so. His fight IQ isn't the best. Also, he looked out of shape at the weigh ins. I hit Schaub by sub small, in the +800 range, also.

Nah-Shon Burrell small-moderate. I was a lot bigger on this (to the point where it seemed like I was the only one betting on this fight), until the weigh-ins; I even considered going large on it at one point. He has better cardio, he's more athletic, he's bigger, he's stronger, he's faster, and he's a better striker. They both have God-awful defence, but Burrell certainly has the more tested chin. Villefort's cardio is dogshit, and his only clear route to victory is really to take Burrell down and submit him in the first. There's a chance he could ground Burrell for two rounds and take a decision, but I doubt it. I just see Burrell being too slick for him. With how short notice the fight is, and the horrendous amount by which Burrell missed weight, I lost a lot of my confidence in this pick. Villefort is extremely overhyped, though. He's no big prospect.
Neil Magney moderate -145. Everyone talks about how Manley's clearest path to victory is to lay all over Magney, but Magney is a wrestler by trade, and is the clearly superior athlete. Given how much time he's had to improve, I see this as an easy bet.
Lawler/Koscheck goes the distance small-moderate -115, Kuivanen/Chiesa under 2.5 rounds -115 small.


Tiny prop plays are Machida wins KO of the night +1300, Lawler wins inside distance +485, Carmouche +900, Machida wins in round 2 +775, Faber by KO/McGee decision parlay +1000< . Nothing really substantial on any of them. I feel like Lawler is severely underrated tonight, though. Koscheck's fight IQ is low enough for me to think that he has a very decent chance of getting KO'd tonight.

Doing some study on the Robertson/Jardine fight, and I may add a play on that before the night is over.

[Sacrelicious]

Machida all the way, and Schaub to a lesser extent. Good luck my friend, lets cash it.

[NunyaBidness]

'Sup buddehs? Not gonna lie and say I've spent as much time studying this week as I did playing Mass Effect, but here are my plays, regardless.

I noticed how you subtly tried to hint that you were playing Mass Effect 3, but in reality, it's Mass Effect 2.

How can we trust a capper who is so far behind in his video games?

[MD]

I noticed how you subtly tried to hint that you were playing Mass Effect 3, but in reality, it's Mass Effect 2.

How can we trust a capper who is so far behind in his video games?

I told you that secret in confidence, and you promised you'd never tell.

How can anyone trust a capper who thinks that there are people who like Mass Effect 3?

[NunyaBidness]

No secrets on SBR, Shari reads everyones mail.

I'm no capper. I just found out Ronda Rousey was a girl 20 minutes ago. Thought she was part of the Gracie clan.

[MD]

No secrets on SBR, Shari reads everyones mail.

I'm no capper. I just found out Ronda Rousey was a girl 20 minutes ago. Thought she was part of the Gracie clan.

Jesus! Has anybody told Urijah Faber?

[MD]

For those of you that aren't reading the event thread:

I wish. Too much uncertainty to go larger. I really like Burrell generally, but there are too many variables here.

Give me this fight with a three-month camp and I may go Large.

EDIT: Actually, more on Burrell +145 and +139. Closer to a moderate bet now. Can't pass up that price.

Documenting it here, too.

[Dwil125]

What makes you say koscheck has low fight Iq md?

[MD]

One example would be successfully taking down GSP but then saying "let's bang" and choosing instead to stand and get his orbital imploded.

Another example would be getting dominated by Hughes in the stand up, and refusing to shoot a takedown until he cracked Hughes on his non-existant chin.

Another example would be always leading with the overhand right and never, ever mixing it up, using jabs, or attempting to set up the only standing weapon he has, despite being in the game for so long.

[MD]

More on Lyoto -195. Fading the steam a bit. I really think Lyoto's going to maul him. Huge bet, but will be up even if Lyoto loses. Big night if he wins.

[MD]

[Educ8d Degener8]

[MD]

<3

'Sup buddehs? Not gonna lie and say I've spent as much time studying this week as I did playing Mass Effect, but here are my plays, regardless.

I'm large on Lyoto Machida. I think he's far too slick for Henderson, and I find a Henderson KO to be extremely unlikely. I think Henderson can win a decision, in the same vein as Rampage, but Machida just wins this fight too often for anything short of a large play. I also have a small-moderate play on Machida by decision +132 and +115.
Schaub moderate. I'd be moderate-large or large on this if it weren't a heavyweight fight; Schaub can take Lavar down, and he can submit him. It's as simple as that. A larger bet isn't warranted at near-even odds simply because Schaub may choose not to do so. His fight IQ isn't the best. Also, he looked out of shape at the weigh ins. I hit Schaub by sub small, in the +800 range, also.

Nah-Shon Burrell small-moderate. I was a lot bigger on this (to the point where it seemed like I was the only one betting on this fight), until the weigh-ins; I even considered going large on it at one point. He has better cardio, he's more athletic, he's bigger, he's stronger, he's faster, and he's a better striker. They both have God-awful defence, but Burrell certainly has the more tested chin. Villefort's cardio is dogshit, and his only clear route to victory is really to take Burrell down and submit him in the first. There's a chance he could ground Burrell for two rounds and take a decision, but I doubt it. I just see Burrell being too slick for him. With how short notice the fight is, and the horrendous amount by which Burrell missed weight, I lost a lot of my confidence in this pick. Villefort is extremely overhyped, though. He's no big prospect.
Neil Magney moderate -145. Everyone talks about how Manley's clearest path to victory is to lay all over Magney, but Magney is a wrestler by trade, and is the clearly superior athlete. Given how much time he's had to improve, I see this as an easy bet.
Lawler/Koscheck goes the distance small-moderate -115, Kuivanen/Chiesa under 2.5 rounds -115 small.


Tiny prop plays are Machida wins KO of the night +1300, Lawler wins inside distance +485, Carmouche +900, Machida wins in round 2 +775, Faber by KO/McGee decision parlay +1000< . Nothing really substantial on any of them. I feel like Lawler is severely underrated tonight, though. Koscheck's fight IQ is low enough for me to think that he has a very decent chance of getting KO'd tonight.

Doing some study on the Robertson/Jardine fight, and I may add a play on that before the night is over.

Really sick night. Too tired to do a recap, but yeah, it was very good.

I had some live bets also, which I lost a little bit on. Very little, but still lost. Not so much due to value plays not hitting, as it was due to a lack of discipline and an over-willingness to pull the trigger on my part. Of the ones I managed to post in the thread between rounds: Kuivanan +150, Bermudez +110, Grice -350. May have had others, don't recall. I would actually have taken a bigger loss had Grice won, and considering I had it a draw (with Grice winning if you choose not to give the third a 10-8, which it should always be, but judging etc.), I think I got fairly lucky.

[Dwil125]

One example would be successfully taking down GSP but then saying "let's bang" and choosing instead to stand and get his orbital imploded.

Another example would be getting dominated by Hughes in the stand up, and refusing to shoot a takedown until he cracked Hughes on his non-existant chin.

Another example would be always leading with the overhand right and never, ever mixing it up, using jabs, or attempting to set up the only standing weapon he has, despite being in the game for so long.

Gotcha, I dont remember hughes outstriking kos; but it was awhile ago I think Ufc 135. I get what your saying, I dont think hes a good enough striker to set up his right hand effectively though. I think im kind of bias towards koscheck I always liked how he tries to win every round and checks the clock frequently.

[MD]

Was M'Pumbu vs Vegh opened previously, before Vegh got an injury at the end of last year? Anyone remember what the line looked like?

[PunisherIND]

Was M'Pumbu vs Vegh opened previously, before Vegh got an injury at the end of last year? Anyone remember what the line looked like?

i dont recall ever seeing a line for it, unfortunately.

[MD]

This fight is going to have ridiculous value if the line opens where I think it's going to open.

[Sacrelicious]

I'm assuming it opens with Vegh as favorite, am I correct?

[Vaughany]

I'm assuming it opens with Vegh as favorite, am I correct?

yes, he will be the fave

[MD]

Indeed. Vegh should open at least -150.

[NunyaBidness]

Indeed. Vegh should open at least -150.

Hope so, Im pounding M'Pumbu at dog prices.

[Sacrelicious]

I dont know if I'm missing something, but I really like Vegh here, and line depending, I'll be all over Rickels as well.

[MD]

Silva said he'll fight Jones at 192.

lolololol

Amazing career move. Anything higher would be suicide; Anderson could probably make 170, so fighting a 205 lber of Jones' size and skill is ridiculous.

[Sacrelicious]

I'd love to see Jones actually try and make 192....good luck with that Johnny boy. I mean its possible, but really now....

I'm tired of this superfight posturing.