MD's House of Winnerz

[MD]

md do you think diaz could win a round? could bet all 5 "yes" and hope for 1. maybe i just want some kind of way to bet on diaz, lol

Sat 3/16		1015 Diaz wins in round 1		+1350
11:00PM		1016 Any other result		-3250
Sat 3/16		1017 Diaz wins in round 2		+1550
11:00PM		1018 Any other result		-4650
Sat 3/16		1019 Diaz wins in round 3		+1950
11:00PM		1020 Any other result		-5850
Sat 3/16		1021 Diaz wins in round 4		+2550
11:00PM		1022 Any other result		-7900
Sat 3/16		1023 Diaz wins in round 5		+3350
11:00PM		1024 Any other result		-12450

Interestingly enough, someone else asked me if I thought Diaz could win a round in a PM (in so many words), because of a prop bet that they had going with someone which cashed if Diaz won a single round but lost the fight, or finished the fight.

As for betting on Diaz, I'll be straight with you. His chances of winning are microscopic. I love Nick Diaz, he's one of my favourite fighters, and I think GSP has been a bit of a dick in the lead up to this fight. I think Diaz finds a finish about 3-5% of the time, and wins a decision less than 1% of the time. There's a lot of value on GSP, it's as close to a lock as you can get in combat sports. You're betting on an insanely high IQ fighter who makes very few mistakes and is always prepared against a guy who makes a lot of mistakes, has very low fight IQ, has no clear ways to win, and is at a horrible stylistic disadvantage.

Just my two cents.

[face]

thanks. I like diaz too, very entertaining fighter and person. condit almost knocked out GSP, but i will go w/ you on the GSP advice. should be a great fight, will probably just watch bc i can find -470 in tons of sports so not worth it to me to not root for diaz.

[Vaughany]

LOL, can't wait til Nunya see this.

lol

[Grabaka]

LOL, can't wait til Nunya see this.

LOL and nobody telling anything OMG you made my night!

[Beelzebubzy]

LOL, can't wait til Nunya see this.

Gabe gives out the math lessons now

[Sacrelicious]

thanks. I like diaz too, very entertaining fighter and person. condit almost knocked out GSP, but i will go w/ you on the GSP advice. should be a great fight, will probably just watch bc i can find -470 in tons of sports so not worth it to me to not root for diaz.

"Almost knocked out" is likely too strong a description for what happened in that third round. He had GSP in a great deal of trouble for perhaps 20 seconds, and GSP still was able to recover and win the round. In my analysis leading up to that fight the only path to victory I had for Condit (which I capped at about 20% probability of occuring) was a very solid kick like that which may or may knock GSP out.

If anything was learned from that fight, it is that GSP has a tougher chin then he has been given credit for, and the ability to recover very quickly. Unfortunately for Nick Diaz, he does not have that path to victory available.

There is a ton of value on GSP, even at -500. This is a terrible, terrible stylistic matchup for Nick Diaz, I believe he will not only be beat, but absolutely humiliated.

[MD]

Gotta make this quick.

GSP large -400 and -425, GSP by decision closes out a few parlays and I have some money on it straight (moderate amount), moderate-large on Miller/Mein goes to decision and over 2.5 in the -155 to -175 range, moderate-large on Mein, moderate on Cote, moderate on Condit/Hendricks goes distance, small-moderate on Makdessi/Cruickshank over 2.5 -155, moderate-large on Elkins/Carvalho goes to decision and over 2.5 at various odds, in the mid -200 range, small-moderate on Cote/Volker over 2.5 +150, Reuben Duran moderate-large +100, Dillashaw moderate -405.

May place a bet on the Condit/Hendricks fight closer to fight time. Happy hunting.

[MD]

Moderate on Story by decision -116.

[MD]

Moderate on Makdessi +110. Been contemplating this bet for a while. Picking up a stale line is all the excuse I need.

[Vaughany]

bad luck...people under-rate Story's power me thinks. Planned to go uber-big on him against Pierson as probably would of got a generous line

[Dwil125]

Took fight starts r3 with Dan miller, I think that ov 2.5 is a nice play too

[MD]

bad luck...people under-rate Story's power me thinks. Planned to go uber-big on him against Pierson as probably would of got a generous line

I know he hits hard, but I figured he'd try to do anything he could to win, with his job assuredly on the line. I wasn't expecting him to land a big punch and think "I hurt him? ALL IN". Oh well, I'd make the same bet again.

[Dwil125]

Yeah I didn't think story would let him up like that

[Hannibal]

I know he hits hard, but I figured he'd try to do anything he could to win, with his job assuredly on the line. I wasn't expecting him to land a big punch and think "I hurt him? ALL IN". Oh well, I'd make the same bet again.

you're trying to predict his mentality.. .i think that is a big mistake
you cant predict his mentality based on what a reasonable person would do in that situation. everything i've seen from story shows he is an all-in fighter. Dude fking goes for it every time.

[MD]

you're trying to predict his mentality.. .i think that is a big mistake
you cant predict his mentality based on what a reasonable person would do in that situation. everything i've seen from story shows he is an all-in fighter. Dude fking goes for it every time.

You may be right. I didn't make that bet due just to his mentality, however. Story has a lot of problems finishing, despite his KO power, and I thought the reach would give him enough troubles to want to take it te the mat.

[MD]

Mein by decision and I'll be having a gooooood night. Miller by guillotine and I'll shit myself.

[MD]

Well, that was unexpected. Oh well, cashed Mein, so I'm happy. I lost a very marginal amount on the fight overall, as I was on the over and goes distance, and I'm down slightly for the night so far. Need m0ar winnerz. I'll be slightly up if this goes the distance.

[MD]

Oh lawd. Rough.

[MD]

Small-moderate on Ring points handicap at -180. I find it difficult to believe that Ring doesn't win -one- round in Canada. It should be a competitive fight.

I'm tempted to play Goes Distance in the Ricci/Freakshow fight, but I'm deciding against it.

EDIT: small-moderate on Ricci point handicap -170.

[MD]

Moderate on Condit +101. I think he should be about -200. Johnny really does need to grapple to win this. Condit by KO, I think. EDIT: in fact, Condit by KO small + 578.

[pouyasophy]

Moderate on Condit +101. I think he should be about -200. Johnny really does need to grapple to win this. Condit by KO, I think. EDIT: in fact, Condit by KO small + 578.

Condit has the sickest entrance song ever....Rage is amazing

[MD]

^ Agreed. I like Nick's entrance music more, though.

For full disclosure I put some money on Condit live at +450.

Also, I'm adding quite a bit to GSP by decision -125 and -140. Moderate-large on that. This will be my biggest bet of the year, when props are included.

[Sacrelicious]

Also played Condit live, I felt the momentum swing, I thought he won rd 2 by a tiny tiny bit, but I would not call it a robbery.

GSP UD just before the fight was insane value. Turned it from a break even night to a winning night.

[Dwil125]

cant believe I missed that

[Hannibal]

Well, that was unexpected. Oh well, cashed Mein, so I'm happy. I lost a very marginal amount on the fight overall, as I was on the over and goes distance, and I'm down slightly for the night so far. Need m0ar winnerz. I'll be slightly up if this goes the distance.

once again you're always up no matter what
even thought you went "moderate large" on both mein/miller going the distance and over 2.5
yet you're still up on the mein fight cause you went straight on mein at "moderate large"

jokes
you should really post your units for each play if you're going to make claims that contradict your original posts based on amounts you can claim to be bigger or smaller after the fact that you won or lost

[Sacrelicious]

once again you're always up no matter what
even thought you went "moderate large" on both mein/miller going the distance and over 2.5
yet you're still up on the mein fight cause you went straight on mein at "moderate large"

jokes
you should really post your units for each play if you're going to make claims that contradict your original posts based on amounts you can claim to be bigger or smaller after the fact that you won or lost

Dude, I'm sure anyone here with half a brain isnt here to try and prove something in a dick measuring contest. We're here to discuss MMA betting and, if we choose to, share plays.

[NunyaBidness]

Dude, I'm sure anyone here with half a brain isnt here to try and prove something in a dick measuring contest. We're here to discuss MMA betting and, if we choose to, share plays.

I don't discuss MMA betting or share plays.

I'm here for the yuks.

[Sacrelicious]

I don't discuss MMA betting or share plays.

I'm here for the yuks.

Well you may be in the minority then.

[Hannibal]

Whats the point of posting plays if you dont provide any analysis, post ambiguous figures, and then claim to win after your ambiguous figures suggest you are losing?

anyone with half a brain knows that guys post their plays to establish credit, so that their future insight has greater weight

it would mean more to provide an insightful analysis and then be wrong, then it would be to just list plays with amounts like "moderate large, large" and then claim to win no matter what

[Sacrelicious]

Somehow establishing "credit" on a degenerate gambling internet forum does not appeal to me at all... Call me crazy.

[Hannibal]

but you do it
you are being a hypocrite
this is exactly what you do

you list a huge number of your plays, with no analysis
what are you expecting to gain, if not respect from your peers?

[Sacrelicious]

Just posting them for a talking point and for fun.

[MD]

once again you're always up no matter what
even thought you went "moderate large" on both mein/miller going the distance and over 2.5
yet you're still up on the mein fight cause you went straight on mein at "moderate large"

jokes
you should really post your units for each play if you're going to make claims that contradict your original posts based on amounts you can claim to be bigger or smaller after the fact that you won or lost

You realize I said I lost money on the Mein fight, right? Do you read anything I say? I said I'd be slightly up at that point if Carvallo/Elkins goes the distance. If you're going to try and bust my balls, you should do it for something I actually say, rather than something you make up.

[MD]

Whats the point of posting plays if you dont provide any analysis, post ambiguous figures, and then claim to win after your ambiguous figures suggest you are losing?

anyone with half a brain knows that guys post their plays to establish credit, so that their future insight has greater weight

it would mean more to provide an insightful analysis and then be wrong, then it would be to just list plays with amounts like "moderate large, large" and then claim to win no matter what

Really didn't have time to post analysis. As I usually say, if someone wants my analysis for a fight, they're free to ask in the thread, or PM me.

Also, I did finish up for the night after pounding GSP by decision, thanks for asking bro. <3

[NunyaBidness]

With all the douchebag posters here, what's the point of two decent posters going at it?