MD's House of Winnerz

MD · 02-28-13, 10:46 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

I'm counting on MPumbus age and lack of fights in the last 2 years cracking, I'm gonna put a large play on the under as well, its three and a half right now, ridiculous.

There are legitimate arguments for taking Vegh, but not these. He has better cardio, probably a better chin, and is more athletic. What disadvantage is he at because of his age?

NunyaBidness · 02-28-13, 10:55 PM

Originally posted by MD

There are legitimate arguments for taking Vegh, but not these. He has better cardio, probably a better chin, and is more athletic. What disadvantage is he at because of his age?

Fighters get old overnight, it just happens some times. They just show up done. The older they are the more likely that is to happen.

Sacrelicious · 03-01-13, 12:04 AM

That.

MD · 03-01-13, 12:09 AM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

That.

You were counting on M'Pumbu doing absolutely nothing with the standup and trying to take down the superior, bigger grappler? Interesting method.

Disappointed with how M'Pumbu performed, but oh well, take the loss, etc. Hopefully my next moderate-large play makes up for it.

Sacrelicious · 03-01-13, 12:15 AM

Cheers buddy, this weekend has alot of solid plays, lets cash it.

MD · 03-02-13, 06:30 PM

No time for analysis on all of these, but ask if you want one for any of my picks. I may oblige.

Cristiano Marcello moderate-large +105, Mizuto Hirota moderate -110, Brad Tavares moderate-large +100, DHK moderate -230. I have bets on all of those at worse odds, too, of course.

Props: Kang by submission small +410, Sanchez by decision +111 small, Lombard wins inside distance small -110, Struve by submission small +110, Hunt wins in round 1 small +350, Wanderlei by decision tiny +1535, Wanderlei inside distance tiny +579, and Wanderlei in round one tiny +1415. Really small plays on most of those due to prop limits. Unless I cash some of the bigger-odds props, I'll need my straight plays to come through if I want any notable profit.

Got a couple of long-haul parlays down, also.

As long as my straight bets do all right, I should have a good night.

Bradbatross · 03-02-13, 06:37 PM

I have all the same straight plays. Hopefully they all come through.

Hedge Hawg · 03-02-13, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by MD

...
Cristiano Marcello moderate-large +105, Mizuto Hirota moderate -110, Brad Tavares moderate-large +100, DHK moderate -230. I have bets on all of those at worse odds, too, of course....

With you on Marcello, Tavares and DHK.

Sacrelicious · 03-02-13, 07:37 PM

Cheers man and good luck, we are both on the same side across the ticket tonight, lets make it happen.

jakejd82 · 03-02-13, 07:41 PM

Good luck Fellas ! Stun Gun is down to -200 on 5dimes, might throw another unit on it. Im ready to eat my words about Marcello but I really think Tokudome comes through. Other then that Im with you guys on straight plays !

MD · 03-02-13, 08:05 PM

Moderate on Kang -115.

MD · 03-02-13, 10:02 PM

I'm moderate-large on Kim now. Can't pass up the -178 price.

I can still finish up with a Kim loss if Hirota and an array of props hit, but I probably need him for a profitable night. I contemplated not betting more on him to give myself some leeway in case he loses, but value is value. I really don't want to fall into that trap.

Contemplating adding more on Hirota, but I'm not entirely sure. Watching footage in between fights. I'll update later if I decide to. Contemplating a Struve play, also.

Sacrelicious · 03-02-13, 10:39 PM

Kim.

MD · 03-02-13, 11:46 PM

Cashed a bunch of live bets on Okami, posted them in the event thread, will quote here later.

Right now, moderate on the Sanchez/Gomi over at -160.

MD · 03-02-13, 11:49 PM

Played Gomi +225 live after the takedown small-moderate.

MD · 03-02-13, 11:53 PM

Playing Diego -195 on 5D between rounds for about half what I did on Gomi for a tiny arb.

MD · 03-02-13, 11:59 PM

Playing Gomi -120 small on Bet365. Dimes has Gomi -160.

MD · 03-03-13, 12:01 AM

What am I missing? Gomi's +110. Taking all my restraint not to pound.

Educ8d Degener8 · 03-03-13, 12:03 AM

Originally posted by MD

What am I missing? Gomi's +110. Taking all my restraint not to pound.

I wouldn't have been able to restrain at those odds.

Beelzebubzy · 03-03-13, 12:09 AM

Wow. that one hurts. Not financially. A little emotionally.
I scored it 30-27 Gomi.

MD · 03-03-13, 12:10 AM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

I wouldn't have been able to restrain at those odds.

I almost couldn't. Glad I did though, because I honestly think that was a very bad decision. I gave Gomi all three rounds, although I'd be very happy to give Sanchez the first as it was close.

I finished up exactly $12 for that fight. I was moderate on the over, but I lost all of it betting on Gomi. Oh well.

MD · 03-03-13, 12:13 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Wow. that one hurts. Not financially. A little emotionally.
I scored it 30-27 Gomi.

Second decision tonight that I was on the other side of that I thought was bad, to be honest. I gave Kang two rounds clearly. I felt bad for Caraway, also, although I had no money on him. I thought he very much deserved to win.

MD · 03-03-13, 01:13 AM

Excellent win for Wanderlei, I'm f-cking delighted for him. Cashed Wand ITD too.

Up a bit for the night, nothing notable. I got a bit f-cked in live betting, as I live bet Struve and Gomi, both of which ended up losing (the Gomi loss is beyond my comprehension, though), although I cashed really big on Okami. Can't be assed quoting everything as I usually do. I'm going to sleep. Hope you all had a good night.

Grabaka · 03-03-13, 05:08 AM

Originally posted by MD

Excellent win for Wanderlei, I'm f-cking delighted for him. Cashed Wand ITD too.

Up a bit for the night, nothing notable. I got a bit f-cked in live betting, as I live bet Struve and Gomi, both of which ended up losing (the Gomi loss is beyond my comprehension, though), although I cashed really big on Okami. Can't be assed quoting everything as I usually do. I'm going to sleep. Hope you all had a good night.

Well done bro. We were penetrating n00bs to take that bum Christiano Cancello. I literally LOLed out of embarasment after some of his combo. WTH were we thinking?

MD · 03-03-13, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by Grabaka

Well done bro. We were penetrating n00bs to take that bum Christiano Cancello. I literally LOLed out of embarasment after some of his combo. WTH were we thinking?

Nothing well done about it, man. I'll be honest with you, I was way up for the night because of my Okami live plays and the late movement on DHK, and then I blew almost all of my profit live betting Struve like a square. Horrible mistake

As for Marcello, I knew he'd be the better striker, but I wasn't expecting Tokodome to be able to hold him down like that. I expected Marcello to be able to sweep or work off of his back. I find it a little bit funny that I thought he'd have clear advantages on the ground and on the feet, but it's his jiu jitsu that lost him the fight. I don't regret the wager, though. With the footage available, Marcello was the obvious choice, and I don't feel as if it was a square bet. Now Hirota... that's a bet to regret.

MD · 03-03-13, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by MD

3/2/2013 11:30 PM Props Fighting 1203 Gomi/Sanchez goes 3 round distance* -170 vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
3/2/2013 11:00 PM Props Fighting 1312 Not Lombard by 3 round decision* -560 vs Lombard wins by 3 round decision
3/2/2013 10:00 PM Props Fighting 1503 Bahadurzada/Kim goes 3 round distance* -215 vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
3/2/2013 9:30 PM Props Fighting 1603 Tavares/Fukuda goes 3 round distance* -245 vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
3/2/2013 8:30 PM Props Fighting 1806 Not Tokudome inside distance* -280 vs Tokudome wins inside distance
3/16/2013 11:00 PM Props Fighting 1011 St-Pierre wins by 5 round decision* -230 vs Not St-Pierre by 5 round decision
4/27/2013 11:00 PM Props Fighting 1009 Jones wins inside distance* -380 vs Not Jones inside distance

+850. Lock it up boys.

Leaving this here. Expecting it to cash at least 80%+ now.

MD · 03-07-13, 07:05 PM

Moderate on Sandro, moderate on the Marhsall/Aliev under.

I have more on the under. I'll just about break even if Sandro loses and the under hits.

As for Sandro, I really don't understand the Khasbulaev love. Yes, Sandro looked awful in his last fight, but Khasbulaev isn't exactly a great wrestler, and he's pretty bad on the feet, also.

This is a very winnable fight for Khasbulaev if Sandro doesn't come in with some renewed vigour, but I wouldn't feel comfortable betting on a mediocre fighter in the hopes that a good fighter has faded so much that he'll get crushed. Just seems like a bad spot for a big wager. Sandro has the tools to crush Khasbulaev and if I were a Khasbulaev backer I'd be banking on Sandro looking awful. Make of that what you will.

With that being said, I haven't been putting much time into Bellator recently, which is the reason that I've mostly been posting single plays (if that) per card. Decent shot I'm wrong.

Rubber Guard · 03-07-13, 09:07 PM

I just hate to go against Russians at this level. They are just hungrier. That said, I have only seen 2 of the kids fights.

GL

MD · 03-07-13, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by Rubber Guard

I just hate to go against Russians at this level. They are just hungrier. That said, I have only seen 2 of the kids fights.

GL

Agreed. The track record for Russians in Bellator is startling, especially as underdogs, but I feel as if that's been factored into the line by the market to some degree which is what is supplying such a good price on Sandro.

I haven't seen many Khasbulaev fights either - four, to be exact. Tough to find footage on.

MD · 03-08-13, 12:52 AM

I SUCK at Bellator. Hannibal, get in here bro, I deserve this one. You too Gigga.

MD · 03-08-13, 12:54 AM

I've been having some terrible results in Bellator lately, which I can attribute almost entirely to not studying my picks enough. Considering that I can't remember the last time I finished down on a UFC event or up on a Bellator event, I'll probably have to shift my focus a bit.

Sacrelicious · 03-08-13, 01:54 AM

Originally posted by MD

Agreed. The track record for Russians in Bellator is startling, especially as underdogs, but I feel as if that's been factored into the line by the market to some degree which is what is supplying such a good price on Sandro.

I haven't seen many Khasbulaev fights either - four, to be exact. Tough to find footage on.

I'm not yet convinced that the market on Bellator is efficient, these lines for the last few shows have been ridiculously off, I suspect we might have 6 months or so to capitalize on them before market correction occurs, but I may be wrong.

face · 03-11-13, 11:47 PM

md do you think diaz could win a round? could bet all 5 "yes" and hope for 1. maybe i just want some kind of way to bet on diaz, lol

Sat 3/16	1015 Diaz wins in round 1	+1350
11:00PM	1016 Any other result	-3250
Sat 3/16	1017 Diaz wins in round 2	+1550
11:00PM	1018 Any other result	-4650
Sat 3/16	1019 Diaz wins in round 3	+1950
11:00PM	1020 Any other result	-5850
Sat 3/16	1021 Diaz wins in round 4	+2550
11:00PM	1022 Any other result	-7900
Sat 3/16	1023 Diaz wins in round 5	+3350
11:00PM	1024 Any other result	-12450

NunyaBidness · 03-11-13, 11:54 PM

Originally posted by face

md do you think diaz could win a round? could bet all 5 "yes" and hope for 1. maybe i just want some kind of way to bet on diaz, lol

Sat 3/16	1015 Diaz wins in round 1	+1350
11:00PM	1016 Any other result	-3250
Sat 3/16	1017 Diaz wins in round 2	+1550
11:00PM	1018 Any other result	-4650
Sat 3/16	1019 Diaz wins in round 3	+1950
11:00PM	1020 Any other result	-5850
Sat 3/16	1021 Diaz wins in round 4	+2550
11:00PM	1022 Any other result	-7900
Sat 3/16	1023 Diaz wins in round 5	+3350
11:00PM	1024 Any other result	-12450

LOL, can't wait til Nunya see this.

face · 03-11-13, 11:57 PM

oh my bad i can't read.