2012 Picks

[Dexter]

Saturday:

PHI -106 (10.6U to win 10)

Only other play I'm considering right now is Arizona. Cliff Lee's already burned me once this year on an 8U play -- let's hope it doesn't happen again in even uglier fashion tomorrow.

jesus christ bro....sorry about this one. you know i am invested in lee in my fantasy league - he had every chance to get himself a win today and he blew it again.

[pacocn]

No coin any picks today? we gotta get you back in the black

[No coincidences]

What's up fellas.

lunch, actually not only did I not hedge, I added 5U to this play at + money right before first pitch. I then shut everything off and spent time with my family. Started getting the "itch" to check the score on my phone about 2 hours into the game, though, and I was feverishly refreshing from that point on.

I was playing with my kids outside and checking my goddam phone as the Phillies collapsed, thinking to myself, "WTF am I doing here?" Stressing out over a bullshit bad beat and flushing over $300 away (a lot for me when it comes to sports gambling) over what? How in any way, shape or form did I have control over what happened?

LTA calls this "sports investing." Sure doesn't feel like it. It's gambling. Period. I'm assured that long term, the bad beats and good cancel each other out. I wouldn't really know anything about that.

I really need a break from this, because this stupid game was consuming my Saturday when I should have been enjoying time with my family. Hate to hang it up on such a shitty note, but I didn't even look at a single line today and I don't think I'll be making a baseball bet until next week at the earliest. Even then, I probably won't spend as much time on it as I have. I'm still shaking my head over this loss, and this hobby of mine in general.

[No coincidences]

What's up fellas.

lunch, actually not only did I not hedge, I added 5U to this play at + money right before first pitch. I then shut everything off and spent time with my family. Started getting the "itch" to check the score on my phone about 2 hours into the game, though, and I was feverishly refreshing from that point on.

I was playing with my kids outside and checking my goddam phone as the Phillies collapsed, thinking to myself, "WTF am I doing here?" Stressing out over a bullshit bad beat and flushing over $300 away (a lot for me on a single play when it comes to gambling) over what? How in any way, shape or form did I have control over what happened?

LTA calls this "sports investing." Sure doesn't feel like it. It's gambling. Period. I'm assured that long term, the bad beats and good cancel each other out. I wouldn't really know anything about that.

I really need a break from this, because this stupid game was consuming my Saturday when I should have been enjoying time with my family. Hate to hang it up on such a shitty note, but I didn't even look at a single line today and I don't think I'll be making a baseball bet until next week at the earliest. Even then, I probably won't spend as much time on it as I have. I'm still shaking my head over this loss, and this hobby of mine in general.

I enjoy the "controllable" aspect of gambling: i.e., capping and reading lines. Once the game starts, though, the lack of control has really started to suck the enjoyment out of it.

Oh, and f\*\*k you Jimmy Rollins.

[brahmabull117]

No coin you're never going to win at a high% until you stop doing your reverse line movement plays and fading the public nonsense


When are you going to understand that sh*t means absolutely nothing? There are people here who routinely hit as high as 58% betting on nothing but just traditional handicapping methods. Why do you feel like you can't do what they do? Or is it more like you don't want to win if it means taking obvious and easy plays? You want to win only with ugly dogs and anti public plays?


You're actually a smart baseball guy, you understand players, teams and matchups. You would be a good capper if you stopped trying to be so "sharp" all the time by taking ugly underdogs, stupid anti public plays and lines "that look too good to be true" when it's basically Vegas handing you free money


You understand you don't get more money than the other guy for winning 1 bet of the same size by taking somebody like the cubs instead of an actual good team on a hot streak facing a mediocre opponent right?

[No coincidences]

No coin you're never going to win at a high% until you stop doing your reverse line movement plays and fading the public nonsense


When are you going to understand that sh*t means absolutely nothing? There are people here who routinely hit as high as 58% betting on nothing but just traditional handicapping methods. Why do you feel like you can't do what they do? Or is it more like you don't want to win if it means taking obvious and easy plays? You want to win only with ugly dogs and anti public plays?


You're actually a smart baseball guy, you understand players, teams and matchups. You would be a good capper if you stopped trying to be so "sharp" all the time by taking ugly underdogs, stupid anti public plays and lines "that look too good to be true" when it's basically Vegas handing you free money


You understand you don't get more money than the other guy for winning 1 bet of the same size by taking somebody like the cubs instead of an actual good team on a hot streak facing a mediocre opponent right?

You do realize, don't you, that I just lost a 10U (actually 15U) bet on a game that had RLM and I went with the public side, right?

You also realize that most of my heavy losses in this thread are from plays that follow that exact same pattern (betting against RLM and going with the public fave), and that very rarely do I make a bet based on RLM alone right? Right?

You couldn't be wrong again. That hasn't happened before.

Let me just say this: STFU already. Just like gambling, you don't know what you're talking about. Thanks for the moronic back-seat driver advice though.

[pacocn]

N.C. Family first always as you well know

[No coincidences]

N.C. Family first always as you well know

Thanks pacocn. It's not just that though -- I have no balance in any aspect of my life right now because of this. It was swallowing me whole. There's only so many times I can click "refresh" on my phone before I start to question WTF am I really doing spending so much time on an event that I have zero control over like this stupid loss for instance.

[brahmabull117]

You do realize, don't you, that I just lost a 10U (actually 15U) bet on a game that had RLM and I went with the public side, right?

Why bet on a guy who has zero wins this year facing a good opponent on the road? I understand his era is low but he's not winning games for a reason - he's getting terrible run support and/or terrible bullpen work. Why do you think that's going to stop?


Also you can't deny the fact that you play a lot of very ugly dogs and fade quality pitchers and teams a hell of a lot. I think I've seen you fading every great pitcher in the league, I even saw you fade Dickey in a situation where it was only like - 130 and he has shown to be arguably the best pitcher in baseball


Bottom line is that you're never going to have great success betting on the ugly dogs that you love to bet on. Look at most of the people on this site who win a lot - guys like Vegasreaper, Chas and a few others. Most of them just make smart common sense plays and usually bet on good teams in good situations. There is no "sharp" or "square". There are winning plays and losing plays

[No coincidences]

There is no "sharp" or "square". There are winning plays and losing plays

Funny -- where have I seen that before? Oh that's right: it's the exact same thing I've said a thousand times on this site. Yet you post this like I believe otherwise, because again, you're just making your typical blanket assumptions and generalizations because you're a loser and a troll.

Again, just like gambling in general, you have no idea what you're talking about. Period. Now get the f\*\*k out of my thread you piece of shit.

[No coincidences]

I can't wait for you to bury yourself again after the ASB using your "common sense" capping. Some things never change.

[lunchbawks]

brahma will never understand. fading the public can you get a +150 line when the line REALLY should be +130

that's why we do it, for the 20 cents of dead money on the other side

[brahmabull117]

I can't wait for you to bury yourself again after the ASB using your "common sense" capping. Some things never change.

I don't think you realize just how much better of a capper I am this year than last year. Just keep watching... I'm not laying chalk anymore but I'm still winning at a similar percentage to last year



For the time being, your opinions hold no value to me. You're a mediocre capper at best



Keep playing your ugly underdogs and anti public/Reverse line movement plays. Maybe one day you'll make money

[No coincidences]

I don't think you realize just how much better of a capper I am this year than last year. Just keep watching... I'm not laying chalk anymore but I'm still winning at a similar percentage to last year



For the time being, your opinions hold no value to me. You're a mediocre capper at best

Then why in the f\*\*k are you in this thread? Just to troll? I can't wait to see you complain to the mods about this -- oh wait a minute, it's OK if you're the one doing the trolling.

[brahmabull117]

Then why in the f\*\*k are you in this thread? Just to troll?

Returning the favor you arrogant dickhead for all the times you did the same kind of thing to me. I absolutely love watching people here succeed but you're the one guy I hope that you finish the season a 1,000 units in the negative



Don't ever come into my threads again and pretend to know what you're talking about when you can't even be 1 unit in the positive over 200+ plays

[No coincidences]

Returning the favor you arrogant dickhead for all the times you did the same kind of thing to me. I absolutely love watching people here succeed but you're the one guy I hope that you finish the season a 1,000 units in the negative

You're right: I'm the only one who makes fun of you and your stupidity at SBR. Interesting.

You "love watching people here succeed"? You do realize you are the laughing stock of this site, right? That doesn't happen because of just me chief.

[brahmabull117]

You're right: I'm the only one who makes fun of you and your stupidity at SBR. Interesting.

You "love watching people here succeed"? You do realize you are the laughing stock of this site, right?

What do I give a fck about a bunch of degenerate f*cking idiots in the player talk section that can't even hit 53% on their plays?




Like I said boss. Since I started betting again, I'm 18-11. Just keep watching. Time will tell

[No coincidences]

What do I give a fck about a bunch of degenerate f*cking idiots in the player talk section that can't even hit 53% on their plays?




Like I said boss. Since I started betting again, I'm 18-11. Just keep watching. Time will tell

So you "love watching people here succeed" or "What do I give a fck about a bunch of degenerate f*cking idiots in the player talk section that can't even hit 53% on their plays"? I'm confused.

Like I said, we'll see if you're sucking your own dick during the dog days.

[brahmabull117]

So you "love watching people here succeed" or "What do I give a fck about a bunch of degenerate f*cking idiots in the player talk section that can't even hit 53% on their plays"? I'm confused.

PT section douchebags are not the same as the people here


I love seeing the people in this section succeed

[No coincidences]

Question: why do you edit your spreadsheet so much?

[brahmabull117]

Question: why do you edit your spreadsheet so much?

I said it before. I kept switching back and forth, back and forth, back and forth about whether or not I even wanted to have a spread sheet. That's why I kept deleting my plays



I haven't deleted anything in couple weeks though and I won't delete anything again

[No coincidences]

I said it before. I kept switching back and forth, back and forth, back and forth about whether or not I even wanted to have a spread sheet. That's why I kept deleting my plays



I haven't deleted anything in couple weeks though and I won't delete anything again

Did you delete winners?

[brahmabull117]

Did you delete winners?

I was at around 50%. It took me a few plays to get warmed up again

[No coincidences]

I was at around 50%. It took me a few plays to get warmed up again

Did you delete winners?

[brahmabull117]

Did you delete winners?

50% bro montana, that means winners and losers of about the same amount

[No coincidences]

50% bro montana, that means winners and losers of about the same amount

Not necessarily. You could have been hitting 30% but deleting half of your losers.

[ShogunRua]

No, actually brahma was worse than 50% and lost some very juicy series plays from the NBA conference finals. He didn't delete them b/c he was going 'back and forth back and forth' about whether or not to keep a spreadsheet, he just stopped deleting the plays once he got on a winning streak. He actually restarted the spreadsheet several different times (the first 2 or 3 times he started it he was getting completely buried).

[No coincidences]

No, actually brahma was worse than 50% and lost some very juicy series plays from the NBA conference finals. He didn't delete them b/c he was going 'back and forth back and forth' about whether or not to keep a spreadsheet, he just stopped deleting the plays once he got on a winning streak. He actually restarted the spreadsheet several different times (the first 2 or 3 times he started it he was getting completely buried).

Interesting.

Let me guess: to him, you're a "troll" for pointing this out.

[brahmabull117]

No, actually brahma was worse than 50% and lost some very juicy series plays from the NBA conference finals. He didn't delete them b/c he was going 'back and forth back and forth' about whether or not to keep a spreadsheet, he just stopped deleting the plays once he got on a winning streak. He actually restarted the spreadsheet several different times (the first 2 or 3 times he started it he was getting completely buried).

Of course you don't have any proof as usual. I was 2-3 on the one picture of my spreedsheet you have of me



Considering I have won 43 out of 65 posted baseball plays as well as going like 13-5 in NFL plays/teasers over last 2 seasons, you can go ahead and blow me

[dynamite140]

Returning the favor you arrogant dickhead for all the times you did the same kind of thing to me. I absolutely love watching people here succeed but you're the one guy I hope that you finish the season a 1,000 units in the negative



Don't ever come into my threads again and pretend to know what you're talking about when you can't even be 1 unit in the positive over 200+ plays

[ShogunRua]

Of course you don't have any proof as usual. I was 2-3 on the one picture of my spreedsheet you have of me



Considering I have won 43 out of 65 posted baseball plays as well as going like 13-5 in NFL plays/teasers over last 2 seasons, you can go ahead and blow me

Umm...If poster JMobile sees this thread, I'm sure he'll be more than happy to. He took screenshots of your spreadsheet before it was deleted showing all the high juice losers you posted.

As far as your other claims...no need to explain. Everyone knows you are lying about that.

[brahmabull117]

Umm...If poster JMobile sees this thread, I'm sure he'll be more than happy to. He took screenshots of your spreadsheet before it was deleted showing all the high juice losers you posted.

yea it was the same one you showed me where I was 2-3 and 3-4 where you included the fact that SA lost their series and miami won their series



Regardless of the fact, I'll keep dominating and you'll keep sucking dick like the obsessed douchebag homo that you are


Get a life man seriously, you're pathetic

[Gee]

You do realize, don't you, that I just lost a 10U (actually 15U) bet on a game that had RLM and I went with the public side, right?

You also realize that most of my heavy losses in this thread are from plays that follow that exact same pattern (betting against RLM and going with the public fave), and that very rarely do I make a bet based on RLM alone right? Right?

You couldn't be wrong again. That hasn't happened before.

Let me just say this: STFU already. Just like gambling, you don't know what you're talking about. Thanks for the moronic back-seat driver advice though.

Out of interest, do you actually think know what you are talking about?

Don't some of the preceding three paragraphs of your post prove that you don't?

Talk about the pot and the kettle....

[underal]

What's up fellas.

lunch, actually not only did I not hedge, I added 5U to this play at + money right before first pitch. I then shut everything off and spent time with my family. Started getting the "itch" to check the score on my phone about 2 hours into the game, though, and I was feverishly refreshing from that point on.

I was playing with my kids outside and checking my goddam phone as the Phillies collapsed, thinking to myself, "WTF am I doing here?" Stressing out over a bullshit bad beat and flushing over $300 away (a lot for me on a single play when it comes to gambling) over what? How in any way, shape or form did I have control over what happened?

LTA calls this "sports investing." Sure doesn't feel like it. It's gambling. Period. I'm assured that long term, the bad beats and good cancel each other out. I wouldn't really know anything about that.

I really need a break from this, because this stupid game was consuming my Saturday when I should have been enjoying time with my family. Hate to hang it up on such a shitty note, but I didn't even look at a single line today and I don't think I'll be making a baseball bet until next week at the earliest. Even then, I probably won't spend as much time on it as I have. I'm still shaking my head over this loss, and this hobby of mine in general.

I enjoy the "controllable" aspect of gambling: i.e., capping and reading lines. Once the game starts, though, the lack of control has really started to suck the enjoyment out of it.

Oh, and f\*\*k you Jimmy Rollins.

NC
I too have reeavaluated my priorities. I will share my conclusion with you and you can take it for what it is worth. Keeping track of 30 teams looking for "value" is a full time job. I am married with 3 kids and do not have the time or patience for it anymore. I have decided to track one team (sf giants since I was always a fan) I will do "advanced scouting" on the upcoming opponent and pitchers and maybe make a play. I will spend at most 1 hour a day on this crap. No more betting for action. All plays between 1 and 5 percent of bankroll. I am waiting for the end of interleague play to start up again.

Gl to you whatever you decide to do.

[No coincidences]

NC
I too have reeavaluated my priorities. I will share my conclusion with you and you can take it for what it is worth. Keeping track of 30 teams looking for "value" is a full time job. I am married with 3 kids and do not have the time or patience for it anymore. I have decided to track one team (sf giants since I was always a fan) I will do "advanced scouting" on the upcoming opponent and pitchers and maybe make a play. I will spend at most 1 hour a day on this crap. No more betting for action. All plays between 1 and 5 percent of bankroll. I am waiting for the end of interleague play to start up again.

Gl to you whatever you decide to do.

Thanks. I agree it's very difficult to juggle both. Of course you could always half-ass capping, but I don't see how you win long term doing that.

I'd play Baltimore and the Angels tonight just looking at the lines. I'd also consider the Royals and Indians, as well as maybe the Pads and M's.