Value Plays Mlb 2012

[2daBank]

nice post fitguy.. im gonna check that gm out..

[pacocn]

July 4th 3 teamer Reds, White Sox, Blue Jays .50x Pays $255
bol everyone. Go Red, White, And Blue

[fitguy67]

HOU/PIT over...damn, now i'm 1-0, +1.00 in my mlb-capping "career", lol...(actually, happy to get the "assist" toward the first "clinking glasses" of the day)


...i'll try to keep an eye out for similar situations in the future when one/both of the pitchers are worse than their ERA suggests...to look for value on the over

...same would have to apply when advanced numbers show pitchers to be substantially better than their ERA suggests...then we'd expect value on the under...

FOR hi-profile teams/televised games there should be even more square money suffering from "ERA-illusion" and thus more value

[italianbandit]

HOU/PIT over...damn, now i'm 1-0, +1.00 in my mlb-capping "career", lol...(actually, happy to get the "assist" toward the first "clinking glasses" of the day


...i'll try to keep an eye out for similar situations in the future when one/both of the pitchers are worse than their ERA suggests...to look for value on the over

...same would have to apply when advanced numbers show pitchers to be substantially better than their ERA suggests...then we'd expect value on the under...

with hi-profile teams/televised games should be even more square money suffering from "ERA-illusion" and thus more value

Nice call fit guy. The latter situation is one of my favorite spots in baseball.

[fitguy67]

bandit...give us a "heads up" the next time u see one of ur favorite-type extra-value situations brewing...

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damn, pacocn...the "big red machine" was a "little red wagon" tonyt...it WAS the right play tho definitely... beating the closer (and the opener) by a HUGE margin...

[pacocn]

bandit...give us a "heads up" the next time u see one of ur favorite-type extra-value situations brewing...

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damn, pacocn...the "big red machine" was a "little red wagon" tonyt...it WAS the right play tho definitely... beating the closer (and the opener) by a HUGE margin...

Fitt great inaugural win, congrats, with the help of italian bandit, lets keep our eyes peeled on those aforementioned situations. Fitt, looking back at it i should've played the Nats in my patriotic 3 teamer we hit the white and blue Keep up the good work!!!!!!!

[pacocn]

1-2 Yesterday down .76 units
Overall record 130-149 Down .11 units.

[pacocn]

Passing on today's card, late night bbq with
friends and family. Bol everyone.

[pacocn]

Fitt and Italian, how difficult would it be to identify some of the pitchers whose era
is much better than their advanced stats would indicate? and vice versa. Similar to
what Dex does with umpires in his thread? Would this be a worthwhile endeavor?

[pacocn]

Heading to work guys, i'll check back later.

[BennyFang]

Enjoy your day off! I just got back from a couple days off, R&R, famoly, ran a 10k....now I'm sore and ready to get back to the grind.

First glance: Astros, O's, Indians, Braves -1, Mets under.

[fitguy67]

Fitt and Italian, how difficult would it be to identify some of the pitchers whose era
is much better than their advanced stats would indicate? and vice versa. Similar to
what Dex does with umpires in his thread? Would this be a worthwhile endeavor?

i hear ya'...a short "hit" list of very over-rated (ERA much better than SIERA reveals) and very under-rated (ERA much worse than SIERA reveals) hurlers...a simple ERA/SIERA ratio would do nicely as an indicator of "over-/under-valuedness" ...throw in a tweak for team defence and we may have a nice filter to get games on the value-radar that might otherwise be missed if focusing entirely on the advanced stats alone...it's the DIVERGENCE between publicly-perceived quality (embodied in ERA) and true quality (embodied in SIERA/FIP/xFIP and a few other K-centred numbers) that may lead to square-money value "bulges", occasionally very dramatic, especially in "big" "public" games...and especially available at market-opening(with books anticipating the square [ERA-swayed] demand and making them pay a premium for it...and at the same time creating a discount for those more hip to truer [SIERA++] indicators of quality)...

hmmm...z-scores (rather than raw) of each pitcher's ERA and SIERA is the way to go...allowing all starters to be ranked in order...and a "top ten" and "bottom ten" identified...yes, do-able and interesting...

[pacocn]

I like to include umps/ wind/ gb/fb ratio too, lets beat these books sillylove including public perception as much as possible

[italianbandit]

Fitt and Italian, how difficult would it be to identify some of the pitchers whose era
is much better than their advanced stats would indicate? and vice versa. Similar to
what Dex does with umpires in his thread? Would this be a worthwhile endeavor?

Yes I think it would be a worthwhile endevour. I don't think it would be too difficult. Its time that is a challenge for me (wife, business, kid etc). Fit, lets PM and see if we can create a simple model for it.

[fitguy67]

i'll whip up a std-(z-)score for ERA and SIERA for every starter (using fangraph, i think)...then combining into an ERA/SIERA ratio for each starter will make a nice index of over- (anything over 1) and under- (anything under 1) valuation by "white bread" fans...

with weekly updates, we might see a few of the names at the top and bottom of our lists change...

just as Dex' antenna goes up for a few umpires, we can take additional interest when one of our "gold-covered crap" or "crap-covered gold" guys takes to the mound...think we should, at first, focus on "first five" results as much as whole game (and think about maybe working up a similar index of each team's bullpen, down the road...but that's a longer stretch from the original idea...cuz most squares aren't even likely to consider--let alone misjudge--bullpen strength)

nothing novel here, really...but it IS a way to quantitatively guage one aspect of public (MIS-)perception.....as pacocn says...just one more arrow for our quiver...

my hunch is that the best use of this new metric ultimately may be in hi-profile games and especially for the first five innings
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it's an "hours in the day" thing for me, too, but i'll try to get this out to you guyz by pm within a few days...

[pacocn]

i'll whip up a std-(z-)score for ERA and SIERA for every starter (using fangraph, i think)...then combining into an ERA/SIERA ratio for each starter will make a nice index of over- (anything over 1) and under- (anything under 1) valuation by "white bread" fans...

with weekly updates, we might see a few of the names at the top and bottom of our lists change...

just as Dex' antenna goes up for a few umpires, we can take additional interest when one of our "gold-covered crap" or "crap-covered
gold" guys takes to the mound...think we should, at first, focus on "first five" results as much as whole game (and think about maybe working up a similar index of each team's bullpen, down the road...but that's a longer stretch from the original idea...cuz most squares aren't even likely to consider--let alone misjudge--bullpen strength)

nothing novel here, really...but it IS a way to quantitatively guage one aspect of public (MIS-)perception.....as pacocn says...just one more arrow for our quiver...

my hunch is that the best use of this new metric ultimately may be in hi-profile games and especially for the first five innings
__________________

it's an "hours in the day" thing for me, too, but i'll try to get this out to you guyz by pm within a few days...

Fitt, sounds good, take your time, make it as leisurely as humanly possible, i know you love numbers, I will also be looking for "golden nuggets" as well. If you would like me to look up any advanced numbers for a list of pitchers let me know, I have access to all the adv. numbers info. More hands lighten the load. Another great resource is Red, i haven't seen him on here much, but he may know a way to get this info. straight from fangraphs with out manually looking it up pitcher by pitcher. The guys is truly amazing at working the advanced stats charts. I think we might be onto something good.

[blackeyeshamus]

whoa. very interesting. thanks!

[whtsox13]

Been looking for some edge on FF. Good luck will follow along with much interest!

[fitguy67]

cool, i think fangraphs will be fine for downloading all the starting-pitchers' stats into excel in one go...then z-scoring the ERA's & SIERA's...and calculating a simple-ratio index...

what i have NO (and i mean NO!) IDEA how to do...and what'd be interesting to learn how to do down the road...is to "back test" a simple set of rules involving the new metric on past data (basically an exercise in "if i knew then what I know now")...the logistics of how this is done boggles my mind...but luckily there are lots of "back-testing" weenies on sbr...

so, you''re very right, we can take this at a leisurely, one step at a time pace...farming out "chores" as we go along...and just see if anything verifiably useful emerges...hopefully in time for NEXT season..

but just as an interesting diversion (not a distraction) from this thread's main focus...becoming filthy rich by
1. tailing CN...
2. clinking glasses
3. ratcheting up the unit size every time we hit a new high
4.return to #1...(lather. rinse, repeat)

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[EXhoosier10]

Fit, Italian, and pac,

Ya'll are definitely bright enough to do this on your own, but if you need some help with anything along the way, I'd be happy to lend a hand.

A few things to think about for this project:
1) a few pitchers consistently over/under perform their
A few pitchers seem to consistently out/under-perform their peripheral stats (eg Hellickson, Nolasco, Morrow up until this year, Cueto, Weaver etc.). I've never factored defense into the equation, so maybe that has something to do with it, but it's worth putting a note next to a lot of these players when this gets implemented.
2) K's, BB's, and GB's, and FB's don't quite stabalize until ~250 PA against, which is about 60 IP, which usually occurs at the beginning of June.

I think I had a few more thoughts when I started this comment earlier this morning, but that's all I can remember for the time being. I'll post something should it pop back up

[pacocn]

Hey guys thanks for all the great insight towards this project, I am very excited to say
the least. Lets keep the lines of communication open and continue to search for
"edges". We have to be relentless in this battle with the books.

[pacocn]

7/6 Marlins +130 bol everyone.

[pacocn]

Hit KC+124 yesterday in my Bet to eat thread, but forgot to post here,
i will not count it for the purpose of this thread, but will happily add it
to my bank roll (br) and ratchet up my units.

[pacocn]

Fit, you have done a very small sample of "front testing" the system and
so far are a whooping 1-0 with the metric, although sample size small, i
think you are onto something. Italian bandit is a master at looking for edges,
he spanked the under in the Reds/Pads game yesterday based on the fact that
both teams pitchers had pitched previously for the other team, therefore resulting
in an increase effort, as the all star break is coming soon. Brilliant idea.

[italianbandit]

Nice call on KC yesterday Pac. I'm going to spend some time on this during the weekend.

[pacocn]

Nice call on KC yesterday Pac. I'm going to spend some time on this during the weekend.

Italian i will be doing the same, balanced between family, fitness, and other fatherly duties.

[pacocn]

Ex-hoosier, thanks for the offer, any feedback or ideas you come up with, are always welcome.

[Utah_Jay]

Yankees/Red Sox Under 9.5 -110

[pacocn]

Utah jay, don't forget to put your play in the bet to eat thread

[fitguy67]

Fit, you have done a very small sample of "front testing" the system and
so far are a whooping 1-0 with the metric, although sample size small, i
think you are onto something. Italian bandit is a master at looking for edges,
he spanked the under in the Reds/Pads game yesterday based on the fact that
both teams pitchers had pitched previously for the other team, therefore resulting
in an increase effort, as the all star break is coming soon. Brilliant idea.

that's the best thing a thread can become...a "neighbourhood watch" for +EV angles

[BiffTFinancial]

that's the best thing a thread can become...a "neighbourhood watch" for +EV angles

stand your ground, fitguy.

[pacocn]

Speaking of ev cash fish plus 130

[italianbandit]

Nice hit PAC.

[pacocn]

Thanks Italian, I detest losing, so I'm gonna try to keep winning

[pacocn]

By popular Demand I am cashing K.C +124 from Thursday
It was posted in bet to eat thread(sister thread) 8 hrs. prior to anthem.