Value Plays Mlb 2012

fitguy67 · 07-01-12, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by pacocn

Overall 122-143 Down 2.97 units.

to be hitting just 46% yet basically flat units-wise (rather than down a ton due to chasing) is actually a good foundation for when the gambling gods (ie. regressing to your long-term well-over-50%hit rate) kicks in...bol

pacocn · 07-01-12, 04:49 PM

Fitt, Thanks for the encouraging words, you know the
drill, slow and steady wins the race

pacocn · 07-01-12, 05:30 PM

Cash Two Teamer Brew crew and Halos +.90 units.

pacocn · 07-01-12, 07:40 PM

1-1 on the day down .25 units
Overall record 123-144 down 3.12 units.

pacocn · 07-02-12, 01:50 AM

7/2 Stros +163, Padres +153, Boston-104,
Cincy -120, and Tampa -120 bol everyone.

pacocn · 07-02-12, 01:57 AM

Adding bosox/A's under 7.5 (-120 5 dimes)

pacocn · 07-02-12, 07:27 AM

This will conclude today's card.

BennyFang · 07-02-12, 08:42 AM

BOL paco, good card.....looking at: Padres, Tampa, O's, A's/Sox under, Parlay Braves and Cards. Kinda like Twinks FF as well. I'll narrow it down from there.

pacocn · 07-02-12, 06:59 PM

Benny, bol on your plays

pacocn · 07-02-12, 10:09 PM

Cash Tampa

fitguy67 · 07-02-12, 10:59 PM

pacocn · 07-02-12, 11:54 PM

Cash A's/redsox Under

pacocn · 07-02-12, 11:55 PM

Cash Padres +153

pacocn · 07-02-12, 11:57 PM

Cash Reds

pacocn · 07-02-12, 11:59 PM

3-3 on the day Up .49 units
Overall 126-150 Down 2.68 units.

pacocn · 07-03-12, 12:52 AM

Record correction 4-2 on the day Up 2.53 units
Overall 127-146 Down .59 units.

pacocn · 07-03-12, 01:08 AM

7/3 Astros +168, Braves RL +110

BennyFang · 07-03-12, 06:35 AM

Solid....keep it going!

pacocn · 07-03-12, 07:32 AM

Thanks Benny

pacocn · 07-03-12, 07:33 AM

Adding Cleveland +116 bol everyone.

BennyFang · 07-03-12, 12:08 PM

Looks like a chalk day for me after being mainly on the dogs last few days. Leans are M's, Yankees, White Sox, Pirates, and one dog...Indians. Already lost value on M's and NYY. Probably have to play some -1's on these. Jurrjens should not be -180 to anyone, even Volstad. Definitely RL on that if you're taking the Braves. BOL!

pacocn · 07-03-12, 06:43 PM

Benny really like the stros in this spot

pacocn · 07-03-12, 07:12 PM

Benny bol on your plays

BennyFang · 07-03-12, 07:14 PM

Originally posted by pacocn

Benny really like the stros in this spot

I hear ya....shoulda considered it. I liked 'em last night. Any thoughts on the A's tonight?

pacocn · 07-03-12, 08:03 PM

Benny, been crazy busy at work didn't look at A's game.

pacocn · 07-03-12, 08:04 PM

Work, family, child keep me on my toes.

pacocn · 07-03-12, 11:17 PM

Cash the Tribe +116

pacocn · 07-03-12, 11:18 PM

Cash Braves RL +110

pacocn · 07-03-12, 11:18 PM

2-1 on the night, tough loss on Stros, but still up 1.24 units.

pacocn · 07-03-12, 11:20 PM

Overall record 129-147 Up .65 units,
back in the black

pacocn · 07-03-12, 11:21 PM

Fitt, be rest assurred I'm ratcheting up the units
thanks again for the sound mm strategy.

fitguy67 · 07-04-12, 01:27 AM

Originally posted by pacocn

Fitt, be rest assurred I'm ratcheting up the units
thanks again for the sound mm strategy.

Wasn't even thinking about it bro'...seems it's a well-ingrained habit by now...

i got one play that looks like good "wee hours" shopping value to me that i just locked in...

early game tomorrow (13:35 edt) HOU/PIT, o8.5...now available at -105 at Pinnacle/5dimes/even SBR's points-based book (reminds me, to use my 60-point free play from trivia a few day's ago on it, as well)...i liked it at -110 (52.38% book's inherent probabilty or "break even" win-rate)...nice to get it "on sale" (at just 51.23%)...i think probability of this game to go over 8.5 runs is much closer to 55% (-122) than 51.23% (-105) giving us a nice bit of value...

i think there's good value here cuz the square betting majority see one good vs one bad pitcher from the perspective of ERA's...but advanced stats show that both these guys are similarly rather poor (both have SIERA's/FIP/xFIP in the 5-neighbourhood)...i'm new to this advanced stats stuff, but i think that their key value is when they diverge from the ERA like this (the more divergence the better)...thus misleading the public and creating value for those more in the know...

just me thinkin' out loud...whadd'ya think...any "value" in my logic

pacocn · 07-04-12, 02:11 AM

Fit, i am tailing you on this one, too beat to cap

Lets get it.

pacocn · 07-04-12, 02:31 AM

Adding Reds -126

pacocn · 07-04-12, 02:32 AM

Final Card 7/4 Stros/Pitt over 8.5, Grande Red Machine -126 bol everyone