My Business

[dlunc3]

4/23 - 4/29:
78-77 50%
+ 1.64 units ($200 per unit)
+ $327.94 (actually a little better then I expected this week)

Since starting thread:
684-563 55%
+ 62.37 units ($200 per unit)
+ $12,473.07

[KennyM10]

Let me flush now I feel better

[Nino7]

dlunc3 i ve read somewhere that u using 0,57% per unit.is it really different than using 1% or 1,5% on only one system?

[SlickRick1382]

Unfortunately, I suck at excel. I had a class on it back in 2004 I believe in college, but never stayed up to date with it and am completely lost whenever I try to use it. I wish I was good at it though, as it seems like a great tool. The SBR spreadsheet is much nicer then keeping track with a pen and paper (like ive done for years up until now), but there are definitely aspects that I would change if I could.

Perhaps I can share mine with you after I'm done toying with the remaining section of my sheet and let you tell me what else I should add to it ...

[dlunc3]

Let me flush now I feel better

[dlunc3]

dlunc3 i ve read somewhere that u using 0,57% per unit.is it really different than using 1% or 1,5% on only one system?

I use the .57% for my unit size on On3s opening game fav system. No, it isnt much different. I was using .5%, but decided to raise it slightly based on some variables I determined preseason (strength I give the system, bankroll increase, amount of $ risked elsewhere, ect).. it is all a personal preference, depending again on each individuals situation. The #1 important factor is that your bankroll must be able to handle your lines in case they get heavy for that system. I use different unit amounts for different strategies I use and different systems that I follow. The .57% is what works for me for this in particular system. I do value the systems strength, but the .57% number is a good amount for me this season in that I will be happy with the amount of $ it results in and in regards to the amount of money I will have risked at any point in time. Again, everybody's situation is different.. but #1 importance must be the bankroll. There is no point in following a system if you cant afford to follow through with it in the good times and the bad. BOL

[dlunc3]

Perhaps I can share mine with you after I'm done toying with the remaining section of my sheet and let you tell me what else I should add to it ...

Sounds like I plan (Im jealous that you know how to work with excel-- I should have paid attention in class maybe one day ill sit down and play around with it a little)

[dlunc3]

4/30

[Calvani]

Hey dlunc3, why do you play both sides of the ML? I see you are playing both sides of TB/Seattle and Oakland/Boston today. Did you change your mind and are hedging?

[fitguy67]

yea these books will screw you anyway they can

for confirmation of that suspicion, chek out (post #5, especially) at
http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1699456-read-before-you-place-your-next-1rl-wager.html

[dlunc3]

Hey dlunc3, why do you play both sides of the ML? I see you are playing both sides of TB/Seattle and Oakland/Boston today. Did you change your mind and are hedging?

For tracking purposes. I cost myself some profit where the spreasheet is concerned so that I can keep detailed accurate records for each strategy and system I use. For example, I have three separate bets on this Boston game tonight, but I only make one bet with my book. Instead of making two bets on boston ($282 to win $188 and $804 to win $536) and one bet on oakland ($282 to win $366.60), I just made one bet on Boston ($663 to win $442). This way if Boston wins, I still profit the same amount ($442) on the game as if I made all three separate bets. But if Boston loses, I only lose $663 instead of the $717.40 that the spreadsheet shows bc I am not eating the juice that I would have ate if I bet on both separate sides of the game. Its all to keep detailed records of what is working for me and what isnt. In the longrun, the spreadsheet will show less profit bc of this, but it is more important to me to have the detailed records. At the end of the season, I may add in the amount that doing this cost me back to the spreadsheet so that all my accounts matchup with what the spreadsheet shows. I like seeing each systems and strategies exact performances though. Hope that made sense. BOL tonight

[dlunc3]

for confirmation of that suspicion, chek out (post #5, especially) at
http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1699456-read-before-you-place-your-next-1rl-wager.html

Im not even surprised! I guess its smart on their part! We are on the wrong end of things... we should be the bookie... they rob people blind and people dont even know it hahaha

[Calvani]

Thanks man, makes perfect sense.

[Nino7]

ok thx vm

[dlunc3]

Angels

Turned a great night last night into only making just under 2 units lost my two big bets though, so guess i should be happy to have been up at all... but man, angles 4-0 in the 8th cant cant hold on give me a win on the -1rl



Anyway... monster night ahead.. BOL

[Gndias]

bol

[jazzmatazz23]

Shitty day for me yesterday, lost around ten units.

[EASY_MONEY72]

27 bets on 4/29. I dont get the point of you having this thread. It isnt like anyone can follow this

[EASY_MONEY72]

28 bets on 5/1. This thread is truly worthless. If this is how you bet - then great, but it doenst help the average person here.

[dlunc3]

28 bets on 5/1. This thread is truly worthless. If this is how you bet - then great, but it doenst help the average person here.

Easy Money... I would suggest reading post #1. I have made this thread to keep myself accountable with my betting and as a way to accurately keep track of my wagers while also participate in talking sports with other minds like my own. I am not looking for anyone to follow me or tail me. If people like to see what I am on prior to putting in bets of there own, and by that maybe deciding to make or not make a bet.. and therefore I help someone win some money, then great. Though I make a lot of bets and obviously would be tough to tail 100%, I would love to help some other people make some money while I am at it.

I play 12 different strategies/systems for mlb. Each one is clearly listed on my spreadsheet under "sportsbook" (labeled 1-12). If someone was interested in tailing any of my plays, I would recommend starting there---Looking to see what strategies/systems do well and basing their judgement off of that. Thusfar, "sportsbooks" labeled #1, #2, #4, and #5 are doings very well. #1 is up 17 units, #2 is up 19 units, #4 is up 7.5 units, #5 is up 18.5 units. I am confident that all 12 will be well in the back by the end of the season.

Sorry if this is not what you were looking for... but I am trying to make money the best I know how at this business just like the rest of us. Just trying to keep everything organized and together along the way... and if possible, would love to help some other people money as well.

[dlunc3]

Shitty day for me yesterday, lost around ten units.

yea, brutal day here too... lost around 13 units tough to win when your two biggest bets lost-- mets lost me 11 units by themselves


gonna be pretty big on SF today.. hopefully Zito brings his A game.

[dlunc3]

These next few weeks are going to be tough for me... My #1 local cut me off on Sunday--- I counted on his lines as they were always 100% accurate and fair. My other local and my offshore book both offer garbage lines. Both always a minimum of 5 cents off. The local that cut me off is small time, so he said he will have what he owes me within the next few weeks. I am also working on getting money off of my offshore account. Whichever money comes in first, I will be immediately depositing at 5Dimes.

Until then, these lines are eating me alive... From what I know and hear, 5Dimes is legit and isnt a scam book that offers bad lines. Ive gotten so comfortable with my local that I hadnt worried about finding a 4th book... until now.., im realizing how important it is since he is gone.

[dlunc3]

Just noticed I forgot to post the plays yesterday...

Probably a good thing... Worst day in years for me. All the profits I have made thusfar this season are gone.

Back to square 1 yet again.... Tough to remember, but there will be ups and downs.... long season ahead and we are only one month in... just brutal to look where I was just 3 days ago (up 60 units).. and now up 4 units... disgusting.. These 9th inning blown saves have crushed me the last two weeks. I am trying to tell myself that I am lucky to still be afloat and not drowning after the way these past few weeks have gone...

back to the grind.. BOL today

[dlunc3]

5/3

[h4v3st]

dlunc3, elaborate SF plz?

[dlunc3]

dlunc3, elaborate SF plz?

SanFran Giants.... could really use some help from them today

BOL

[GAMBLOR777]

why did you bet miami aswell?

[h4v3st]

I would like to share some information about bankroll management, I'm new here. Can you give me an e-mail to contact? Thanks if you can help me.

[dlunc3]

why did you bet miami aswell?

I explained in post #851.. take a look and let me know if it still doesnt make sense to you

[dlunc3]

I would like to share some information about bankroll management, I'm new here. Can you give me an e-mail to contact? Thanks if you can help me.

I have lost my PM privileges... and am still not sure why-- could be that I gave out my email address to another member. So I dont think it would be a good idea to do that again..

we can discuss it in this thread if you would like

[dlunc3]

***Adding 25% to todays plays

[fitguy67]

damn, 4-22 yesterday...i also put on similar numbers of plays (also based on many sources), and have had similarly skewed (both 22-4ish and 4-22ish) more often than you'd think likely (but just check any land-based casino and you'll find several similarly-extreme runs for red/black on roulette show up on a daily basis...where each days spinning would parallel a year or so of our sports plays)

..the risk of a really ruinous downturn has turned me into a religiously-flat "to risk 1% of bank" bettor (the upshot being that i'll gladly forego the magnified upswings that come with bet-size variations in return for the security of unmagnified downswings...so even if 5 of my sources have a play, it's a 1-bagger like every other one)

...it's hard enough to pick games...to try to cap the "confidence" we have in their sources--well, let's just say it's an avoidable source of variance...and in the long run, given a nice long-run+%growth rate like u have demonstrated here, the less variance (the smoother the path) the better...more boring, but better...cuz just as the magnified upmoves heighten "thrill of victory" pleasure, their magnified mirror image deepens the dreaded "risk of ruin")

fortunately for you dlunc...this big wave of negative variance came AFTER you'd accumulated a nice stash of house money, as you noted...so yesterday results are demoralizing but not debilitating in the least

just remember that periods of unbelievably bad runs like this can and will happen again...you might want to take this as a message to work some variance-reducing features into your overall system (most notably "flattening" the bet-size differential...you don't have to go crazy flat like super-chicken me, but recognize that just as clever bet-sizing is your friend when Mr.Murphy's good twin smiles on you...it's your enemy when Mr.Murphy himself takes the reigns)...

BOL dude...super appreciate your effort and attitude to this business

[beerman2619]

[dlunc3]

damn, 4-22 yesterday...i also put on similar numbers of plays (also based on many sources), and have had similarly skewed (both 22-4ish and 4-22ish) more often than you'd think likely (but just check any land-based casino and you'll find several similarly-extreme runs for red/black on roulette show up on a daily basis...where each days spinning would parallel a year or so of our sports plays)

..the risk of a really ruinous downturn has turned me into a religiously-flat "to risk 1% of bank" bettor (the upshot being that i'll gladly forego the magnified upswings that come with bet-size variations in return for the security of unmagnified downswings...so even if 5 of my sources have a play, it's a 1-bagger like every other one)

...it's hard enough to pick games...to try to cap the "confidence" we have in their sources--well, let's just say it's an avoidable source of variance...and in the long run, given a nice long-run+%growth rate like u have demonstrated here, the less variance (the smoother the path) the better...more boring, but better...cuz just as the magnified upmoves heighten "thrill of victory" pleasure, their magnified mirror image deepens the dreaded "risk of ruin")

fortunately for you dlunc...this big wave of negative variance came AFTER you'd accumulated a nice stash of house money, as you noted...so yesterday results are demoralizing but not debilitating in the least

just remember that periods of unbelievably bad runs like this can and will happen again...you might want to take this as a message to work some variance-reducing features into your overall system (most notably "flattening" the bet-size differential...you don't have to go crazy flat like super-chicken me, but recognize that just as clever bet-sizing is your friend when Mr.Murphy's good twin smiles on you...it's your enemy when Mr.Murphy himself takes the reigns)...

BOL dude...super appreciate your effort and attitude to this business

Thanks for the thoughts and positivity man...nice to know im not the only one that has hit these brutal streaks haha... They are absolutely brutal! Winning a game honestly seems impossible right now. Ive missed two bets the last two nights that I normally would have made (just didnt get them in in time)-- Of course both easy winners

Hoping to get back on the right foot this weekend.

BOL

[dlunc3]

5/4