My Business

[Traintilupuke]

I'm looking at that pacers under too...my book has it at 188..I always am hesitant with totals in the 80s tho

[dlunc3]

Busy day...

adding:
houst +3 1x
miami -10 1x
sac +3 1x
lac +3.5 1x

also hedging and making okc 1x instead of 2x

bol tonight

[scattiwampus]

Interesting card for you tonight... I'm on the other side of your clip play though and was interested to see where you thought you were getting an edge with them tonight. Best of luck, you've been seeing things pretty well...

[dlunc3]

Interesting card for you tonight... I'm on the other side of your clip play though and was interested to see where you thought you were getting an edge with them tonight. Best of luck, you've been seeing things pretty well...

Seems like the majority of the forum is on indy tonight... I personally feel LAC keeps it close. I love backing the clipps as a dog as this is where they have trived as of late. On the other hand, indy has been struggling ats vs the better teams. They come in not playing well whereas the clipps have gained some recent momentum pulling out some close wins. I see Jordan causing some problems for Hibbert down low tonight. Hibbert has struggled vs teams that have a big man to match up with him (chic, miami, denver, orl)... I see jordan causing similar problems tonight. I think LAC could win a close game... so I love getting a full 3.5 points on the other side.

BOL either side you chose

[dlunc3]

I'm a big fan of alot of plays as well. I know the book says it's bad but small edge + high volume = $$
My mindset is it's all one big session anyhow. What's the difference between playing 3 games a night for 30 days = 90 plays or 90 plays over a week?? In the end it's still 90 plays & the juice is the same. Only difference is people say you can pick the strongest plays of the day & therefore have the strongest plays working for you over that 90 plays but honestly the strongest plays of the day aren't always obvious. They are usually just an opinion & are by no means a given. My personal history tells me that my strongest plays don't hit @ a much better % anyhow. As long as you keep it within reason& not just randomly fire a solid capper can get away w/ more plays than usual IMO.

Exactly how I feel. I've found that I hit close to the same rate on the plays I feel very strongly about as the plays where I feel I have a slight edge. I definitely think you need to have purpose and reason behind you bets, not just randomly fire as you said... I prefer to keep my exposure low by making small many plays rather then large select ones on a regular basis. I view it as an easier way to protect the bankroll as a bad streak would require many more losses with small plays in comparison to just a few losses with big plays. Also helps me from "looking for extra action" and making plays I normally wouldnt make and also prevents "tilt" bets after a tough loss. There are no doubt pros and cons however you look at it... and making fewer plays definately might work for some people. But for my style and my liking, lower risk and more plays is what seems to work best.

[dlunc3]

Went real cold for about a week and a half just been laying low making small bets...looking to get back on the horse though. After last night I finally got sum cash to play with....how about OKC -3 tonight too good to pass up

yea keep your head up... cold streaks suck.. for every cold streak there is a hot one waiting right around the corner

Keeping flipflopping on this okc game tonight... still think its the right side, but reduced my bet down to 1x rather then 2x. Utah is a tough place to play and okc has had some trouble lately coming of wins. We'll see though... bol

[Traintilupuke]

Thanks for the confidence man...I bought into em -3 and I also threw a small bet on ML parlayed with the O 204...considering throwing a small amount on UTAH just to cover my ass

[fitguy67]

upscope & dlunc,

another plus with the hi-volume/low-impact style is it helps to be consistently objective about "compromising" on a play...cuz there are so many candidate "fish in the sea"...if one has gotten away, it's easy to turn your back on it...long haul this is good for the %yield

simple rule that works for me is get exactly the play i want...with one compromise allowed...I'll accept a half-point worse if it just means pushing where i would've had a win...but i'll never accept a half-point worse than desired if it means i'd lose where i would've had a push

[dlunc3]

Thanks for the confidence man...I bought into em -3 and I also threw a small bet on ML parlayed with the O 204...considering throwing a small amount on UTAH just to cover my ass

I like that Raja bell is out tonight (and Josh Howard).. Durrant should be able to score at will vs Miles/Hayward.

[dlunc3]

upscope & dlunc,

another plus with the hi-volume/low-impact style is it helps to be consistently objective about "compromising" on a play...cuz there are so many candidate "fish in the sea"...if one has gotten away, it's easy to turn your back on it...long haul this is good for the %yield

simple rule that works for me is get exactly the play i want...with one compromise allowed...I'll accept a half-point worse if it just means pushing where i would've had a win...but i'll never accept a half-point worse than desired if it means i'd lose where i would've had a push

This goes against "the book"... but right or wrong, I play by the same standard.

[dlunc3]

Deandre jordan 2 fouls in the first three minutes... has only played 5 minutes through 21 minutes of action bc of it... gonna need him or Hibbert could have a big night

[dlunc3]

miami 2h under 99 1.5x

[dlunc3]

miami -2 live 2x

[dlunc3]

tor 4q +1 1.5x

[dlunc3]

7-5 up a little under 2x so far on the night... would love to hit these last two.

[dlunc3]

port 4q -3.5 2x

[dlunc3]

These 4th quarter bets are killing me right now with 3 straight losses (-6+ units) supposed to consistently hit 60%+... so hopefully due for a nice run

3/20/12
8-7
- 2.275 units
- $255

Since starting thread:
390-317-13 55.3%
+ 37.29 units
+ $7,458.51

[dlunc3]

3/21/12

[dlunc3]

orl -8 2x
orl 1q -2.5 1x
philly 1q ml -140 1.5x

[jazzmatazz23]

orl -8 2x
orl 1q -2.5 1x
philly 1q ml -140 1.5x

that philly first quarter was really hard to watch

[fitguy67]

that philly first quarter was really hard to watch

...like WNBA in more ways than one

[dlunc3]

wasnt able to watch it but was keeping an eye on it from my phone... it was like 9-0 the first I looked haha.. knew it was a lost cause already

[dlunc3]

just played phx 4q -3 2x

also played :
philly 2h under
fairfield 2h over
minny 2h under

gl tonight

[dlunc3]

lac 4q ml -115 2x

[fitguy67]

dlunc...Loyola Marymount +5 still very much alive...a nice run has them at just 6 down with 2 mins to go...

never mind...they rolled back into the grave, gave up a quick 7 to go down -13

[dlunc3]

Yea... they cut it to 4 then just folded. Very disappointing to see after a very solid season. Cut it to 4 with a little over 3 minutes left then decided to hang em up.. What started out as a solid night quickly went down hill...

been treading water lately....butler choked late and allowed pitt to send it to ot...fairfield missed 2 fts in the final 20 seconds to go under by 1.. LAC had it to 9 in the 4th which had the 4q bet up by 8 and the full game bet looking ok, but then just completed folded as well..

Im patiently waiting for that big night! any time now would be great haha

[dlunc3]

memphis -1 2x
lac -3 3.5x

[Traintilupuke]

Let's get that money tonight brotha.....who knew the lakers wud end up stepping up on the road last night in the 2h Ruined that perfectly good under

[Roto97]

Lets ride that Memphis.

[dlunc3]

[dlunc3]

also on louisville +5 for 1x


gl tonight

[dlunc3]

Been a brutal stretch for me the past few nights...Will update the season after tonights games... BOL tonight boys

[dlunc3]

[dlunc3]

Big on Boston tonight.... but I am also playing philly 1q ml for 1.25x.

Lets get it

[Roto97]

Big on Boston tonight.... but I am also playing philly 1q ml for 1.25x.

Lets get it

I am on Boston 2x for me. Lets get this.