My Business

fitguy67 · 03-23-12, 05:45 PM

I'm with you, heavy on Boston (spread and ml) and with you on LTA's Bos/Phi under (tho' i always find it painful watching the last few minutes of an under with such a low total)

...also like NCSt with the points (will be very few blowouts from here on)...also, you nudged me off the fence on Tor and NJN

dlunc3 · 03-23-12, 09:39 PM

hedged for 3x (two immediately pregame when allen was ruled out, 1 at half)... was selfish not to hedge for the full amount.. When allen and peitrus were out and you could take philly ml for the game at half, it was stupid not to at least hedge the full amount. Stupid and selfish

dlunc3 · 03-23-12, 10:07 PM

kentucky 2h over 79.5 1.5x

den live +5 1x

fitguy67 · 03-24-12, 01:46 AM

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w

ontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplore r4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> damn...was sure i'd placed NCSt +8.5 and recorded it on my spreadsheet as such...turns out i had played Kansas -8.5...

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w

ontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplore r4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]-->no matter how careful you are placing your plays, the occasional "bass-ackwards" screw-up occurs (usually it's over/under inversions)...(kinda' like how you'll do some dumbass thing with your car/house keys at least once a year, no matter how careful u are)

I just discovered from this though...yet another advantage of the "carpet bombing" approach (lotsa small-footprint plays)...it limits the consequence of the inevitable logistical mistake like this to the small manageable %play-size...

if this were a 3%-plus play I'd be flippin' out/wanting revenge...ideal breeding ground for starting a dangerous slide down tilt mountain...but being just a single small-% play...it's easy to just let it go ("after all, tomorrow is a brand new day"...scarlet o'hara/Gone With The Wind)

dlunc3 · 03-24-12, 10:30 AM

Since starting thread:
409-340-13 55%
+ 21.21 units
+ $4,242.51

dlunc3 · 03-24-12, 01:24 PM

dlunc3 · 03-24-12, 09:29 PM

7-2 night but barely up a unit

losing all the big bets and winning the small ones...

3/24
7-2
+ 1.13 units
+ $226.06

Since starting thread:
389-312-13 55.6%
+ 22.34 units
+ $4,468.57

Roto97 · 03-24-12, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

7-2 night but barely up a unit

losing all the big bets and winning the small ones...

7

Tell me about it. And I am on Tor as well, didn't need this to go to OT.

Hopefully, Toronto still covers the 13pts.

dlunc3 · 03-24-12, 09:56 PM

Originally posted by Roto97

Tell me about it. And I am on Tor as well, didn't need this to go to OT.

Hopefully, Toronto still covers the 13pts.

I graded it a win... if they lose by 13 i quit haha

J.M. Disciple · 03-24-12, 11:36 PM

Every try and run labby lines with your bets? 55% is really good for a labby, its just trying to figure out how many lines to run with all the plays you have as well as the higher juice on some of your plays.

J.M. Disciple · 03-24-12, 11:43 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

7-2 night but barely up a unit

losing all the big bets and winning the small ones...

3/24
7-2
+ 1.13 units
+ $226.06

Since starting thread:
389-312-13 55.6%
+ 22.34 units
+ $4,468.57

$312 x $110 = $34,320 in losses
$389 x $100 = $38,900 in wins

$100 bettors flat betting $100 each time at -110 odds would be up $4,580....

Having said this you do have quite a few ML bets in there which would make my math way off, but if you can hit 55% @ -110 it would be showing a nice profit espcially if you find a way to labby the plays.

dlunc3 · 03-25-12, 11:46 AM

12/25

J.M. Disciple · 03-25-12, 12:23 PM

The phx play your own ?

J.M. Disciple · 03-25-12, 01:08 PM

Just went over your sheet since January and was analyzing all your $500+ plays. It seems you should just stick to a regular unit size. Small sample on these games but your record is 15 wins, 20 losses, and 2 pushes not counting your parlays where you risk $100 to win like 1500 or whatever; those would of added a few more losses.

I know some times it just seems to good to be true and want to wager a lot, but records dont lie. Just trying to help.

JMD

fitguy67 · 03-25-12, 04:40 PM

JM...i'm an ardent flat (for me it's flat%BR, rather than flat amount) bettor...to the point that if i ever do want to "double up" on a play, i actually process and record it as two separate but equal-valued plays...but that's just me...HOWEVER, there are many ways to skin this cat called sport-investing...and Dlunc is in the majority camp of varied-unit bettors as you've noted...is this good or bad???

answer is a solid DEPENDS...mathematically, you can say that a varied bettor will have the same EV as his flat-betting twin...main difference is that he'll also have a higher variance (how much higher depends on how tamely or wildly the units vary)...2 reasons basically...1)when a capper varies his units he's essentially "capping himself"...adding another layer of uncertainty to the effort...2) fold into this how closely the distribution of winners/losers vs the big-unit/small-unit picks follows--in waves that ebb and flow--the dictates of "Murphy's law" (where you go 7-3, negative units) or your "Guardian Angel" (u go 3-7, positive units). When you vary your bets...you can lose substantially even when u win the slate, and win substantially even when you lose the slate.

Now, is higher variance good or bad?
answer again is another solid DEPENDS...by its very defintion it means the highs'll be higher...the lows'll be lower vs his flat-betting twin-self...so just as a flat bettor's ac ebbs and flows positive and negative, the apparent advantages/disadvantages of varied-stake betting also ebb and flow...meaning...

you're noting now, after a rough patch that Dlunc "would have" done better flat and you are correct...but if you looked at things a month before...or a month later...you very well might notice he's done much better than he "would have" if he flat bet

when you vary your bet sizes (for any reason...based on varied "confidence" for individual plays, as Dlunc does, or as part of any "chasing" or "line clearing" exercise you might choose to apply)...When you win the peaks are better and the valleys are worse...simple as that...there is no best way...just an important tradeoff to be very aware of.

(one thing that must be noted about increased variance is how it increases the "risk of ruin" or crashing/seriously-damaging an account balance...guys with a huge spread between max and min unit are fatal accidents waiting to happen...)

Dlunc varies his bets, yes...but very sensibly...and will enjoy higher-performance periods than flat-betting...but in exchange for that must also suffer lower-performance periods than flat betting (precisely what you're noting NOW)

but as long as long as the likelihood of a "ruinous valley" is kept negligible (meaning the account can weather any bad-luck period)...flat vs. varied-unit betting is purely a matter of a particular bettor's enthusiasm for reward/tolerance for risk (what i call "stomach" for the inevitably bumpy ride)...a flat bettor opts for the less bumpy ride...the varied-unit bettor opts for the bumpier ride cuz it gives him the higher highs (and he's willing to put up with the lower lows that necessarily come with that)

dlunc3 · 03-25-12, 06:18 PM

busy day... will respond later..

adding 1.5x to philly

bol guys

dlunc3 · 03-25-12, 07:21 PM

philly +.5 2h 1x

dlunc3 · 03-25-12, 09:26 PM

getting hammered these last few weeks... was up around 50 units and down shrinking to closer to 10 if im lucky

baseball couldnt come at a better time.. will be nice at least to have a new focus and at least know that we are getting a max effort most of the time

heres to an end to this ugly run

Roto97 · 03-25-12, 09:45 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

getting hammered these last few weeks... was up around 50 units and down shrinking to closer to 10 if im lucky

baseball couldnt come at a better time.. will be nice at least to have a new focus and at least know that we are getting a max effort most of the time

heres to an end to this ugly run

Tell me about it last 2 days have been brutal. Only winner today was minny/nuggets over, and i am not sure why i didnt go big on that game. 1-5 today, with lakers to go.

dlunc3 · 03-26-12, 12:14 AM

3/25
1-6
- 14.16 units
- $2,832

Since starting thread:
390-318-13 55%
+ 8.18 units
+ $1,636.57

dlunc3 · 03-26-12, 12:09 PM

milw +6 1.5x
indy +3 1.5x
wash +2 2x
den +8 1.5x

dlunc3 · 04-14-12, 08:17 AM

Finally back...

SBR suspended me and im still not sure why? Said "violation of PMs", but still not sure what that means? Maybe bc I gave out my email address? Or bc I talked about how much a tout cost?

Either way... was actually a nice break.. took a few days off to prepare for MLB. Started up again on 4/4 with the start of baseball... Been going strong since and keeping the spreadsheet updated ever yday. Looking to keep it rolling through the rest of nba and mlb into nfl season... BOL

3/26 - 4/13
117-101-4
+ 25.74 units
+ $5,147.91

Since starting thread:
507-419-17 54.8%
+ 33.9 units
+ $6,784.48

dlunc3 · 04-14-12, 01:01 PM

4/14

dlunc3 · 04-15-12, 03:35 PM

solid day yesterday... looking for a nice follow up...

Had the spreadsheet up earlier, forgot to post though... all these days off got my mind away from the forum..

bol today

dlunc3 · 04-15-12, 10:31 PM

Great start to the season

+46 units in a week and a half since baseball started

obviously cant expect this pace to keep up... but great start to the long grind of a season

fitguy67 · 04-16-12, 07:23 PM

as it turned out, getting banned worked out real well for your business!!!

while u were "serving your sentence" were u still able to log into sbr and have access to the sportsbook/casino and update your spreadsheet, etc...in other words, were u just banned from posting/pm'ng or from everything else as well? just curious

blacknwhite · 04-16-12, 07:27 PM

who do you follow for MLB?

dlunc3 · 04-17-12, 12:22 AM

Busy day at work... first hot day of the yr makes the HVAC business get a little crazy..

had a decent day... white sox gave up 2 9th inning homeruns to send the game to extras and blow my under

guess its all part of the game though...

dlunc3 · 04-17-12, 12:27 AM

Originally posted by fitguy67

as it turned out, getting banned worked out real well for your business!!!

while u were "serving your sentence" were u still able to log into sbr and have access to the sportsbook/casino and update your spreadsheet, etc...in other words, were u just banned from posting/pm'ng or from everything else as well? just curious

haha yea baseball has has been going well so far... I never really paid much attention to the sbr points until as of late.. I realized I was actually starting to accumulate a few, so I played in the casino a little and tried to get up to the point where I could actually get something of some worth with them... Actually just cashed out $300 in best buy gift cards and went down to best buy tonight and picked up an ipad.. $300 got me started, but still ended up spending close to $900 after you add in a case, insurance, ect... Think it will come in handy on the road though, so trying to view it as an investment

but yea, they still let you have access to everything on sbr, but just wont let you post or pm... still not sure why i got the suspension... oh well, i still thank them for the $300 towards my ipad

dlunc3 · 04-17-12, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by blacknwhite

who do you follow for MLB?

follow a few guys and cap a lot myself... right now on sbr im following lta, dexter and opening game fav system.. sad to see lta will be leaving sbr soon, that guy knows his stuff..

looking for a big day tomorrow... will need fat C.C to show up at home for me

H1Cypher · 04-17-12, 12:39 AM

Nice to see you back thought you gave up on your thread =). It can be a pain posting plays on a thread. I sometimes wanna not post them and sometimes don't just cause it's easier not to. Can be fun too also =p.

dlunc3 · 04-17-12, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by H1Cypher

Nice to see you back thought you gave up on your thread =). It can be a pain posting plays on a thread. I sometimes wanna not post them and sometimes don't just cause it's easier not to. Can be fun too also =p.

yea.. sometimes it becomes a hassle.. but i think its helpful in the long haul.. helps with organization and accountability imo

dlunc3 · 04-17-12, 04:37 PM

4/17

fitguy67 · 04-17-12, 09:01 PM

nice "carpet-bombing" card...

i record each day's plays alphabetically (i use "EJOTY" as markers for plays # 5,10,15,20,25)...and whenever i get to to "T" or beyond (ie. 20+plays like u got goin' tonyt), i know it's a potential big-swing day...

good luck

BTW, what's the word about LTA...when?/where to? etc.

dlunc3 · 04-17-12, 10:00 PM

wow... what a brutal night... figured it was due.. but brutal..

to polish it off just lost the both the dodgers ml and the dodgers under on a walkoff double in the 9th

hopefully can finish it out strong and come back swinging tomorrow..