My Business

[moshi]

Cincy was an underdog but you paid -108 for ml? WTF.

[dlunc3]

got absolutely raped on this phills line... I got it early this morning -172 for $550 (the max they would allow for overnight limits)... then later I went to put more in and it was up to -187! So figure id wait it out in hopes it would come back down... instead, it shot up to -200

hate playing this, as I know the quality of pitcher blanton is, and know he doesnt deserve to be a -150 fav, let alone -200!! following through and trusting the plan though.. lets get it dont tonight phills

BOL

[dlunc3]

Cincy was an underdog but you paid -108 for ml? WTF.

If you notice, I am getting absolutely the worst numbers possible on all my games. Both the books I am currently using are garbage books for baseball. My good local cut me off a few weeks back, and I am really paying for it right now. I am working on getting money on 5dimes... most of my roll is tied up on sportsbetting.ag, and they told me my payout could take up to 60 days to come in wtf. Ive used them for yrs and never had a problem.. but this is unacceptable. This site and my other local are both bs, as every line is always at least 5 cents off (a lot of times more). I did the math.. If I make 1000 plays and lose 46%, I will lose an extra $9,200 by paying an extra 5 cents juice on every play if I average $400 per bet. Do I stop betting for now until the money comes in? Or just continue to get terrible lines and hope for the best? very frustrating...

^

working hard to move some money around and get money on 5 dimes... I am losing thousands right now with these bs lines im getting. Probably smart to just sit it out until I can get with a better book... these lines are an absolute joke

[dlunc3]

at least i got a good line with some of the others... +118 on balt... up to -109 now!! wow, crazy movement there... didnt expect that much tonight esp vs a public team like tex

[Dmoneytx]

I come in & see Philly up 4-1. I put my son to bed, just walked in & they are down 4-6?? Unfreaking believable......
God I hate baseball. Only leaned bec u had SO much on them tonight. I know better than that. ARG...

[dlunc3]

I come in & see Philly up 4-1. I put my son to bed, just walked in & they are down 4-6?? Unfreaking believable......
God I hate baseball. Only leaned bec u had SO much on them tonight. I know better than that. ARG...

Yea man.. id be willing to bet in the history of baseball, teams that are up 4-0 go on to win 90%+ of the time. I also know for a fact, that since 1969, bullpens have held onto leads 68% of the time. Just in the last 30 minutes, philly blew the lead and loss the game, as did boston, washington, and miami...

Just how its been going... these past week weeks, I cant even count how many large leads have been choked away or how many 9th inning blown saves i have run into.

I do not mind losing when it is legit... I actually accept losing, and like to learn from it... On the other hand, when continuing to lose like this (losing to bs on a regular basis when having over a 90% chance to win the game) there comes a point where you need to just cut your losses, and go another route for a little while.

I grinded up 60+ units over the last 4 months. In less then two weeks, I have given it all back, plus an extra 25 units. And to be completely honest, I would make all the same plays over again as I have the last two weeks. I played poker for a living for a few years back in the mid 2000s... This seems very similar to that for me.. Losing with AA happens, and it happens too often. But if you ask any poker player, they would go in with AA preflop all day any day and take their chances. The big games im losing these past two weeks, have been in better positions then AA vs even 7-2 offsuit.

So though I still back my plays 100%, I need to head a different direction for a while. I dont mind losing plays like Cincy tonight where they just came out and got hammered.. but losing with 4-0 leads, and blowing saves in the 9th inning with 2 outs and 2 strikes, just gets old.. but doesnt appear to be slowing down at the moment.

It will stop, and things will even out.. but I just cant continue to risk my bankroll like I have been as things are obviously not normal in baseball right now. I will be focusing on making more flat bet plays, and a much more conservative approach until things settle down and get back to normal. Still plan to make some good money this season... its just a shame all my hard work over the past 4 months got pissed away..

Oh well.. gotta adapt to the game...

back to the slow grind

BOL

[KennyM10]

What a loser

[dlunc3]

What a loser

keep trolling man... you have flushed your bankroll numerous times and you have admitted to it numerous times in numerous threads. Maybe you should consider bankroll management? I have seen you in 4 threads... you have been trolling in each of them.. gotta be something better for you to do with your time, right? im sorry you are so angry.. i probably would be too if I kept flushing my bankroll... try being positive and not just a troll... might work out better for you

[dlunc3]

another blown save in oakland lol

honestly, i guess its expected these days

[MUHerd37]

What a loser

Where is your spreadsheet? Dlunc3 is man enough to document his picks for everyone to see.

[notoriouz]

Keep grinding Dlunc. Hopefully your luck turns back to your winning ways

[KennyM10]

So happy to see this goof losing so much fkin hilarious

[KennyM10]

And the 5 paragraph sob story awesome elmo.

[moshi]

dlunc, the way you're playing you are going to lose all your money. Your system has not been working for a while now and I would suggest trying something different like playing 5 games max and follow PickWinnerAllDay's unders.

[fitguy67]

dlunc...

1. take time off now for one reason...to get setup with better lines (gettin' most of your wad into 5dimes is key)...we used to say "nothin' goes right when ur underwear's tight!"...and constantly getting lousy lines is a perma-wedgy

2. seriously think of going a FLAT low % of bankroll (i use 1%...so everyday starts with a full 100-bet warchest...and even brutal neg-variance leaves plenty of powder dry)...u can continue to follow everyone of your play-sources that u use now...just ignore any mention of differing-value plays...if ur interested in my super variance-averse approach, chek out pacocn's (mlb i think but maybe nba) thread....where i elaborate on exactly when and how to up-adjust unit size in $-terms to make full use of available capital while keeping downmoves bearable

just 2cents from a fellow "carpet bomber"

[dlunc3]

dlunc, the way you're playing you are going to lose all your money. Your system has not been working for a while now and I would suggest trying something different like playing 5 games max and follow PickWinnerAllDay's unders.

Its has actually not been working for two weeks... The systems/strategies I play have worked for me for many years now... and a few bad weeks is not going to change that. Sucks, I am down approx 30 units right now. Yea it sucks, but is not the end of the world. You can say the way im playing Im going to lose all my money.... but truthfully, it is just an extremely bad run with everything coming crashing down all at once. To be honest, I am lucky im only down 30 units.

For example, three of the cappers I follow on SBR... On3s system, Dexters plays, and System Integrity... combined, these three threads have lost 85 units over the past two weeks. Yes, 85 units.... And I would make every play again... I trust all three threads and cappers... on3, slapshot and dexter have are cappers I trust, and each will turn it around no doubt. Its just terrible luck that all three had bad runs all at once.

So just with those 3, you can see partial reason for my terrible run.... This is not even mentioning some of the other stratagies/systems that I follow that have also crapped out in the past two weeks.

So you can say "the way im playing i will lose all my money", but I think its pretty clear that it just plain sucks that everything shit the bed at once.

But like I said, if I could do it again, I would make all the exact same plays. I would play the same odds all over again... it has taken over 15 9th inning blown saves along with many 4-0 leads blown for this bad run to happen. Just like when holding AA in poker, win or lose, thats a play you would make all day..

BUT, you are right... when things are going bad and things start to shift slightly in baseball, we have to adjust... so thats what I will do.

BOL

[dlunc3]

dlunc...

1. take time off now for one reason...to get setup with better lines (gettin' most of your wad into 5dimes is key)...we used to say "nothin' goes right when ur underwear's tight!"...and constantly getting lousy lines is a perma-wedgy

2. seriously think of going a FLAT low % of bankroll (i use 1%...so everyday starts with a full 100-bet warchest...and even brutal neg-variance leaves plenty of powder dry)...u can continue to follow everyone of your play-sources that u use now...just ignore any mention of differing-value plays...if ur interested in my super variance-averse approach, chek out pacocn's (mlb i think but maybe nba) thread....where i elaborate on exactly when and how to up-adjust unit size in $-terms to make full use of available capital while keeping downmoves bearable

just 2cents from a fellow "carpet bomber"

Yea, you are right... for now, I will adapt and go at it a safer way just based on how things are going. Better believe I will be back again next yr though.. firing on all cylinders! hahaha

its taken everything to go bad at once to make me adjust.. its a shame bc I know the great potential of what could have been had everything not crapped out at once... oh well, for now adjustments will be made..

gotta keep grinding..

will be back to even and counting profits soon enough

BOL to you man... keep up the good work

[dlunc3]

5/9

[fitguy67]

you know that playing a flat 3* vs a method that averages 3* but varies from 1*min to 5*max has exactly the same long term ev/roi...but flat is a much smoother ride (lower variance)...

i suggest you look at your average bet-size over the haul...and investigate "actual" vs "if u played everything at that average size"...

think u'll discover that "Murphy'sLaw over the distribution of W's and L's" (=sun may shine but it inevitably rains hard on ur big-bag plays) is the culprit...

it's this specific source of variance that is ELIMINATED by flat betting

[KennyM10]

I want to give you some credit my man Dloser. At least you realized you are terrible at picking games and pulled back. Good work

[jazzmatazz23]

Bad r

[jazzmatazz23]

Bad rUn for me too. It's chill hopefully a good run will be soon

[dlunc3]

5/10

[moshi]

lol, dlunc you faded Boston from the on3 thread? Good for us, bad for them. I'm also on Toronto and TB u8. We have very similar plays today. Hoping to cash BIG.

[Smutbucket]

nice day dlunc3, shoulda been wagering 10x units! lol jk....figure out the kinks before you do

[dlunc3]

nice day dlunc3, shoulda been wagering 10x units! lol jk....figure out the kinks before you do

hahaha with my added late wagers, i ended up 9-0 on my bets today... of course I was only betting pennies and gumballs


had to shorten my unit size for a while though.. no use in getting in trouble this early in the season

[dlunc3]

lol, dlunc you faded Boston from the on3 thread? Good for us, bad for them. I'm also on Toronto and TB u8. We have very similar plays today. Hoping to cash BIG.

[dlunc3]

5/11

[J.M. Disciple]

Good to see last couple days have been winners for you. Crap load of plays, but i see you are slowly climbing back into it.

Do you play any of LTA's plays? He hsa really low juice and a lot of positive plays with a winning record. I think hes up like 10-15units.

[dlunc3]

Good to see last couple days have been winners for you. Crap load of plays, but i see you are slowly climbing back into it.

Do you play any of LTA's plays? He hsa really low juice and a lot of positive plays with a winning record. I think hes up like 10-15units.

Hey man... yea, had a butal stretch (as im sure you can expect)... the three systems i have been following (dexters, on3s, and system integrity), all crapped out at once, among some others... I love all three thread and have no doubt each will come back and make some money... but for me, I had to just cut back for now. A lot of huge leads getting blown and a lot of 9th inning bs going on... so had to cut back for a while..

I will always have a lot of plays on Fridays and Mondays... with all new series starting.. Im working on a few new things, trying to adapt to this weird season. Looking to grind back to even slowly but surely... hopefully within a month or two so that I can get back in the black and make some good money the 2nd half of the yr.

But yes! LTA is the man... best capper on this site, I would reccomend him to anyone. I follow all of his plays that I can.

[dlunc3]

5/12




Also played tex -1 and cubs under.. Don't have time to update spreadsheet right now though.

Bol today

[dlunc3]

Well... obviously this week was broken up into two halves. Had to make some changes midway through as I was getting repeatedly hammered and regardless of the reason, had to adapt. Going into Wed., I had lost appox. 19k in basically a 2/3 week span.. disgusting. So back to the grind the past couple days.. and looking forward to keeping at it and hopefully get back in the black shortly.

First Half

5/7 - 5/8:
13 - 22 38%
+ 34.63 units ($200 per unit)
- $6,920.45

Second Half

5/9 - 5/12:
48-31 61%
+ 13.63 units ($200 per unit)
+ 2,726.68


Since starting thread:
813-699 53.8%
- 19.3 units ($200 per unit)
- $3,865.63

[dlunc3]

5/14


may play a few more later

bol

[TxAaron]

Like your card today.

Just hoping you didn't get the Nationals -1 at -1024. Hopefully that's some sort of mistake.

[dlunc3]

Like your card today.

Just hoping you didn't get the Nationals -1 at -1024. Hopefully that's some sort of mistake.

Fixed it... Thanks

gl today