LTA's MLB Plays

[pacocn]

Lta, bol today , you are a tough guy
to hate.

[Love The Action]

Good job today bro, keep the haters away

this is a non hater trend section keep up the good work L.T.A.

In the words of Cat Thomas "Everyone could use some Haters, infact if there are any haters here, that need someone to hate on, feel free to hate on me"

Keep doin good work LTA.

Lta, bol today , you are a tough guy
to hate.

Thanks guys. It's no big deal though, there's really only one hater. Plus, everyone's entitled to their opinion, even where it's an obviously ignorant and silly one. I encourage discourse in my threads whether in support of or against my plays. Plus, it's all in good fun...at least for me. Other peopel take this forum stuff way too seriously, but for me it's all about helping out, improving our craft and making some money! Good luck today!

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/1/11

Play #1

Angels -1 RL (-112) 1x (Locked)

We have a huge pitching mismatch here at a great price. This one's currently at about -158 on the ML and I have it at -175. I'm not really a big fan of playing that much juice, so I'll risk the push here because I think the Angels roll. I won't even go through all the stats, but one illustration of this SP mismatch shows in their WAR ratings where Santana comes in at 3.3 compared to Furbush's -0.1. This one will surely be a public play, but there will also be plenty of sharp money on it as well. I expect the ML to get into that -175 territory by close and that sort of jump is not going to be fueled by public money also so I'm jumping on the -1RL now for 1x at the cheapest price we will see. Good luck.

This is it for right now. Heading off to work, but will be following some line movement. We might have one or two more plays. Also hoping that I my locals open up their NCAAF totals for Saturday. The sides are out, but totals are not. Once those open up, I will post my two plays for Saturday in the NCAAF forum. Good luck today!

[Love The Action]

MLB Thursday Early Game Action Parlay (not for records win or lose)

Oakland ml/over (7.5)

0.10x to win 0.25x

Good luck!

[BigBoi]

LTA whats your football plays your looking at?

[pacocn]

lta, close call on that parlay, Gio was
relentless

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 9/3/11 (Week 1)

My NCAAF thread, with full writeups for the plays below, will be posted tonight when I get home from work. Moving forward, you can expect me to post my plays earlier in the week so we can beat the closer and get as much value as possible. Like the other sports markets I invest in, I play totals, moneylines and spreads, with a concentration on totals for NCAAF. I will be very selective with my plays and conservative with my unit stakes for those plays until my model and its advanced stats and team/player trends take shape around weeks three or four, at which time we will increase our aggressiveness.

Play #1

Tulsa/Oklahoma over (65) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Army/Northern IL over (55) 0.50x (Locked)

Play #3

Rice/Texas over (55) 0.50x (Locked)

Let's keep making profit together! Good luck!

[Luv2Play2]

hope you have a great f.ball season.. thanks for all your bases plays.. L2P2

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/1/11

Play #1

Angels -1 RL (-112) 1x (Locked)

We have a huge pitching mismatch here at a great price. This one's currently at about -158 on the ML and I have it at -175. I'm not really a big fan of playing that much juice, so I'll risk the push here because I think the Angels roll. I won't even go through all the stats, but one illustration of this SP mismatch shows in their WAR ratings where Santana comes in at 3.3 compared to Furbush's -0.1. This one will surely be a public play, but there will also be plenty of sharp money on it as well. I expect the ML to get into that -175 territory by close and that sort of jump is not going to be fueled by public money also so I'm jumping on the -1RL now for 1x at the cheapest price we will see. Good luck.

Play #2

TB/Texas under (9)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting all day to get a total of 9 here and I was just able to snag it when the squarer of my two locals made the move. I have this one at 8, so we are getting a full run of variance here and it will take a score of ten to beat us. I don't see that happening. Niemann haas been the best starting pitcher in baseball since the all star break and Wilson is solid. Both pitchers have mid 3 to low 3's in FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA and are able to get strikeouts and ground balls as evidenced by their K% over 19% and GB/FB over 1.2 (with Wilson better at both). Wilson has dominated the Rays throughout his career and Niemann has never faced four of the nine guys in the Rangers lineup tonight. Wally Bell is the ump with his 63.5% strike rate and historical under lean. We will also have the wind blowing straight in at 10-15 mph all night, so there is no wind tunnel effect ay play. Neither pinny, greek or mb has made the move to 9 and I don't expect that to happen. I think we actually see a move to the under here and we should be ahead of the curve. It's rare to get three straight unders in arlington, but I think we see that tonight and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[homosayswhat]

Get that under bro !!!

Gl

[No coincidences]

Seemed like a "convenient" ninth run scored after two outs and no one on in the bottom of the eighth.

Pretty fishy that Murphy's stealing his way into scoring position up by 4 runs at that point.

[Love The Action]

Seemed like a "convenient" ninth run scored after two outs and no one on in the bottom of the eighth.

Pretty fishy that Murphy's stealing his way into scoring position up by 4 runs at that point.

There are no coincidences with this stuff

[No coincidences]

There are no coincidences with this stuff

Two outs, no one on, Murphy singles in a 6-2 game, steals second and scores on a single.

Total of 9 pushes and the 8.5 under tickets burn.

I'm sure Washington had a reason to push that lead from 4 to 5 with 3 outs to go in the game. Maybe he needed some more nose candy from his shady friends in low places.

[pacocn]

I burn't the 8.5 ticket i knew we were
done when murph stole 2nd.

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 9/1/11

0 - 0 - 2 = 0x

Baserunners kill us tonight as we went from a potential back to back sweeping nights to two pushes. A bottom of the 8th stolen base that turned into the 9th run cost us our Rangers under and the Angels could not capitalize with multiple runners left on base because poor baserunning. Oh well, better than a loss and onto Friday we go.

MLB Season 2011

370 - 336 = +25.535x

Back to the grind...

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/2/11

Play #1

Indians/KC under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

We cashed with this play on Sunday and I usually wouldn't go back to the well so soon, and I worry about hitter familiarity with these pitchers and certain adjustments, however, the Indians lineup is so banged up there's not much they can put out there to scare you without Hafner, Sizemore, Brantley and Choo. Both Masterson and Choo pitching well and Masterson is one of the best pitchers out there this year. I will have some more thoughts on this one later, but I'm ready for bed now. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

What do you guys think of the Mariners today?

Oakland has matchup problems against lefties and even though Vargas is not the best, he's far and away better than Moscoso according to the advanced stats (e.g. Vargas 1.4 WAR v. .6 for Moscoso).

There's not too many motivational angles you can play in MLB, but Oakland has been on a 10 game road trip and this is his first game back home which is a nice fade opp across all sports. I have this one with Seattle +118, so I like getting them at +130. Need to check out a few more things though.

Off to work...back later with any additional plays. Good luck today!

[guil0000]

I'm on seattle too LTA. One of the best value out there imo

[Love The Action]

I'm on seattle too LTA. One of the best value out there imo

[guil0000]

What are your thoughts on Arizona today LTA?

[No coincidences]

What do you guys think of the Mariners today?

Oakland has matchup problems against lefties and even though Vargas is not the best, he's far and away better than Moscoso according to the advanced stats (e.g. Vargas 1.4 WAR v. .6 for Moscoso).

There's not too many motivational angles you can play in MLB, but Oakland has been on a 10 game road trip and this is his first game back home which is a nice fade opp across all sports. I have this one with Seattle +118, so I like getting them at +130. Need to check out a few more things though.

Off to work...back later with any additional plays. Good luck today!

Really want to take them, but Vargas has been pretty shaky this year to say the least.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/2/11

Play #1

Indians/KC under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

We cashed with this play on Sunday and I usually wouldn't go back to the well so soon, and I worry about hitter familiarity with these pitchers and certain adjustments, however, the Indians lineup is so banged up there's not much they can put out there to scare you without Hafner, Sizemore, Brantley and Choo. Both Masterson and Choo pitching well and Masterson is one of the best pitchers out there this year. I will have some more thoughts on this one later, but I'm ready for bed now. Good luck.

Play #2

Mariners (+136) 1x (Locked)

I think Oakland is overpriced here by almost 20 cents and I'm rolling with the M's who should be a bit more fresh than the A's. Situational angles matter less in baseball than any other sport and I don't give them much weight, but the A's just played what was essentially 24 games in 21 days, the last ten on the road when you factor in the doubleheader and 16 inking game. Seattle has had less grueling schedule and has the much fresher bullpen. In addition the M's have the better starting pitcher against a lineup that struggles against lefties. I expect a lineup something like Weeks, Crisp, Matsui, Willingham, Allen, Jackson, Suzuki, Pennington and Sizemore to face Vargas. However, none of them have fated very well against Vargas in a small sample and none really strike fear in you if you are a left handed starter. Oakland is hitting under .200 against lefties over their last ten games and I expect Vargas to avenge an earlier season loss. The A's are a big public play today, but I expect to see the price fall at some point and close wirh the M's about +120 to +125 and I'm taking them now at +136 for 1x. Good luck.

[Full-Grown]

Bet the Mariners last night myself. Let's get it!!!

[figue]

[wquine]

gotta appreciate a guy with writeups, screw it I'm blind tailing tonight :P

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/2/11

Play #1

Indians/KC under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

We cashed with this play on Sunday and I usually wouldn't go back to the well so soon, and I worry about hitter familiarity with these pitchers and certain adjustments, however, the Indians lineup is so banged up there's not much they can put out there to scare you without Hafner, Sizemore, Brantley and Choo. Both Masterson and Choo pitching well and Masterson is one of the best pitchers out there this year. I will have some more thoughts on this one later, but I'm ready for bed now. Good luck.

Play #2

Mariners (+136) 1x (Locked)

I think Oakland is overpriced here by almost 20 cents and I'm rolling with the M's who should be a bit more fresh than the A's. Situational angles matter less in baseball than any other sport and I don't give them much weight, but the A's just played what was essentially 24 games in 21 days, the last ten on the road when you factor in the doubleheader and 16 inking game. Seattle has had less grueling schedule and has the much fresher bullpen. In addition the M's have the better starting pitcher against a lineup that struggles against lefties. I expect a lineup something like Weeks, Crisp, Matsui, Willingham, Allen, Jackson, Suzuki, Pennington and Sizemore to face Vargas. However, none of them have fated very well against Vargas in a small sample and none really strike fear in you if you are a left handed starter. Oakland is hitting under .200 against lefties over their last ten games and I expect Vargas to avenge an earlier season loss. The A's are a big public play today, but I expect to see the price fall at some point and close wirh the M's about +120 to +125 and I'm taking them now at +136 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Toronto/NYY under (9.5) 1x (Locked)

Once I was able to get this one at -110, I had to give it a shot. I have this one at 8.6, which gives us almost a full run of variance between our line and the books. The yanks are playing without arod and texeira which really helps morrow. We have backed morrow here and there this season, most recently last sunday when he got shelled by tb. Even so, I expect a rebound for a guy whose advanced stats say he has some of the best stuff in the league and who has had success against nyy including earlier this year when he held them to one run over 6.2 innings. On the other side, nova has been consistent all year only giving more than 4 runs in a start twice out of 23 starts. Because it will take a total of 10 to beat us and we win wirh a final of 9, im jumping on the under here at a better than market price. I don't think either starter gives up more than four today. The wind is blowing across field so that's good. The umpire is not available but as long as we don't get a huge over ump we should be fine. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Correlated Parlay (Not for records win or lose)

Mariners ML/Over (8)

0.25x to win 0.79x

Big line move here all the way up to 8 from 7 and still rising. My model had 7.8 and I wish I would have taken the over early as well, but I liked the side a bit better. However, at the time, I didn't know the wind would blowing out over 10mph and now I think we see Seattle get at least 7 today and Oakland should get 3 to 4. I Iike Moscoso to get lit up. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/2/11

Play #1

Indians/KC under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

We cashed with this play on Sunday and I usually wouldn't go back to the well so soon, and I worry about hitter familiarity with these pitchers and certain adjustments, however, the Indians lineup is so banged up there's not much they can put out there to scare you without Hafner, Sizemore, Brantley and Choo. Both Masterson and Choo pitching well and Masterson is one of the best pitchers out there this year. I will have some more thoughts on this one later, but I'm ready for bed now. Good luck.

Play #2

Mariners (+136) 1x (Locked)

I think Oakland is overpriced here by almost 20 cents and I'm rolling with the M's who should be a bit more fresh than the A's. Situational angles matter less in baseball than any other sport and I don't give them much weight, but the A's just played what was essentially 24 games in 21 days, the last ten on the road when you factor in the doubleheader and 16 inking game. Seattle has had less grueling schedule and has the much fresher bullpen. In addition the M's have the better starting pitcher against a lineup that struggles against lefties. I expect a lineup something like Weeks, Crisp, Matsui, Willingham, Allen, Jackson, Suzuki, Pennington and Sizemore to face Vargas. However, none of them have fated very well against Vargas in a small sample and none really strike fear in you if you are a left handed starter. Oakland is hitting under .200 against lefties over their last ten games and I expect Vargas to avenge an earlier season loss. The A's are a big public play today, but I expect to see the price fall at some point and close wirh the M's about +120 to +125 and I'm taking them now at +136 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Toronto/NYY under (9.5) 1x (Locked)

Once I was able to get this one at -110, I had to give it a shot. I have this one at 8.6, which gives us almost a full run of variance between our line and the books. The yanks are playing without arod and texeira which really helps morrow. We have backed morrow here and there this season, most recently last sunday when he got shelled by tb. Even so, I expect a rebound for a guy whose advanced stats say he has some of the best stuff in the league and who has had success against nyy including earlier this year when he held them to one run over 6.2 innings. On the other side, nova has been consistent all year only giving more than 4 runs in a start twice out of 23 starts. Because it will take a total of 10 to beat us and we win wirh a final of 9, im jumping on the under here at a better than market price. I don't think either starter gives up more than four today. The wind is blowing across field so that's good. The umpire is not available but as long as we don't get a huge over ump we should be fine. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Correlated Parlay (Not for records win or lose)

Mariners ML/Over (8)

0.25x to win 0.79x

Big line move here all the way up to 8 from 7 and still rising. My model had 7.8 and I wish I would have taken the over early as well, but I liked the side a bit better. However, at the time, I didn't know the wind would blowing out over 10mph and now I think we see Seattle get at least 7 today and Oakland should get 3 to 4. I Iike Moscoso to get lit up. Good luck.

ML Dog Parlay (Not for Records win or lose)

NCAAF Baylor (+160) and Mariners (+135)

0.20x to win 1x

Good luck. Card final.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/3/11

Play #1

Arizona/SF under (6)(-115) 2x (Locked)

I look at this one as a classic low scoring late season playoff battle. I suspect we will see action on both sides with the public settling on a slight under lean. I have this one at 5 as the advanced stats scream under here. Plus, you have a solid under ballpark and at least one team that struggles offensively. However, with both Lincecum and Kennedy pitching, I expect runs to be at a premium. Not only are they the real deal from an advanced stat standpoint, but they also have dominated the other lineups mano a mano. The wind is predicted to be blowing in from right field off the ocean. Wendelstedt is the ump with his over lean, but his strike rate is well over 63% and his previous seasons were pretty even with respect to o/u so this season's results could be an anomoly. I expect the line to stay steady with with juice on the under but it's hard to imagine a move to 5.5 and don't expect it. I have designed my model to love pitchers with great advanced stats and I love playing low total unders across all sports. The Giants are always a solid under bet at home and I'm rolling that way on Saturday night for 2x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/2/11 Recap

1 - 2 = -1.05x

The Mariners absolutely killed our day with a no-show performance, but that's just the risk we accept when we play big dogs.

MLB Season 2011

371 - 338 = +24.485x

I am very excited about this last month of the regular season and playoffs. This is traditionally my strongest and most aggressive time for MLB as the playoff races shape up. I plan on closing the season with profits of +40x or more, so it's time for a sustained run. Good luck!

[pacocn]

Bol Lta, I agree both Kennedy and Lincy
are going to be treating this as a playoff game.

[Redscot]

MLB 9/2/11 Recap

I am very excited about this last month of the regular season and playoffs. This is traditionally my strongest and most aggressive time for MLB as the playoff races shape up. I plan on closing the season with profits of +40x or more, so it's time for a sustained run. Good luck!

Great time of year LTA, looking forward to a strong finish.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/3/11

Play #1

Arizona/SF under (6)(-115) 2x (Locked)

I look at this one as a classic low scoring late season playoff battle. I suspect we will see action on both sides with the public settling on a slight under lean. I have this one at 5 as the advanced stats scream under here. Plus, you have a solid under ballpark and at least one team that struggles offensively. However, with both Lincecum and Kennedy pitching, I expect runs to be at a premium. Not only are they the real deal from an advanced stat standpoint, but they also have dominated the other lineups mano a mano. The wind is predicted to be blowing in from right field off the ocean. Wendelstedt is the ump with his over lean, but his strike rate is well over 63% and his previous seasons were pretty even with respect to o/u so this season's results could be an anomoly. I expect the line to stay steady with with juice on the under but it's hard to imagine a move to 5.5 and don't expect it. I have designed my model to love pitchers with great advanced stats and I love playing low total unders across all sports. The Giants are always a solid under bet at home and I'm rolling that way on Saturday night for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

White Sox (-107) 2x (Locked)

Our second play of the day is also another playoff race 2x play. This is a MUST WIN game for the White Sox and I see no reason that they don't defeat Brad Penny today. There is a huge pitching advantage for the White Sox today and they have to capitalize on it. You can run down the list of stats and you will see that Floyd has the advantage in every category. If find it most striking, however, in these two pitchers' ability to get much needed strikeouts. Floyd rings in with a K% over 18% almost doubling Penny's 9.5% (which is pathetic). You can also really highlight the Sox's pitching advantaging when comparing WAR with Floyd at 3.1 to Penny's 0.9 and SIERA with Floyd at 3.59 and Penny at 4.7. When you look at the history against these lineups you will see that Floyd has already beaten Detroit this year in Detroit giving Verlander one of his few losses this year and Floyd will not be intimidated. On the other side, Detroit has already beaten the White Sox THREE times this year with Penny starting. How can that be?! It doesn't even matter because it is extremely difficult to beat the same team four times in one season, especially when you are as bad as Brad Penny. This game is essentially the White Sox's season. If they do not win today, they cannot pick up a game from the Tigers in the division race and their season is pretty much over. Based on the stats alone, I have the White Sox at -118 today against Penny so we're getting over ten cents of value. I expect the CWS price to go up throughout the day even though action is split right now. This is a must win game and I'll take the Sox here for 2x. Good luck.

[Luv2Play2]

bol 2 day LTA

[Love The Action]

bol 2 day LTA

Same to you. There's a lot less money coming in on these MLB games with all the college games going on....