LTA's MLB Plays

**Love The Action** · 09-03-11, 04:36 PM

Alexei!!!!!! Yes!!!

I think I'm the only one watching MLB today

**BubbleTeaJelly** · 09-03-11, 04:52 PM

haha guess that makes 2!

**investing4us** · 09-03-11, 04:57 PM

back to back homers off penny. great job lta

**Love The Action** · 09-03-11, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by BubbleTeaJelly

haha guess that makes 2!

Originally posted by investing4us

back to back homers off penny. great job lta

**Redscot** · 09-03-11, 05:02 PM

you can put it on the booooooooooooooaaaaaaard...YEEEEEEEEEEEE EES!

**Love The Action** · 09-03-11, 05:03 PM

Only remaining leans are Mil/Hou under and Phil/Florida under. Public heavy on the over in both but there's been no line move that way. Both are heavy juice on the under though and not really too happy with the umps either. Let's see what happens with the line before gametime.

**Love The Action** · 09-03-11, 05:10 PM

And just like that, Floyd rolls his ankle and gives up 3

**Love The Action** · 09-03-11, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 9/3/11

Play #1

Arizona/SF under (6)(-115) 2x (Locked)

I look at this one as a classic low scoring late season playoff battle. I suspect we will see action on both sides with the public settling on a slight under lean. I have this one at 5 as the advanced stats scream under here. Plus, you have a solid under ballpark and at least one team that struggles offensively. However, with both Lincecum and Kennedy pitching, I expect runs to be at a premium. Not only are they the real deal from an advanced stat standpoint, but they also have dominated the other lineups mano a mano. The wind is predicted to be blowing in from right field off the ocean. Wendelstedt is the ump with his over lean, but his strike rate is well over 63% and his previous seasons were pretty even with respect to o/u so this season's results could be an anomoly. I expect the line to stay steady with with juice on the under but it's hard to imagine a move to 5.5 and don't expect it. I have designed my model to love pitchers with great advanced stats and I love playing low total unders across all sports. The Giants are always a solid under bet at home and I'm rolling that way on Saturday night for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

White Sox (-107) 2x (Locked)

Our second play of the day is also another playoff race 2x play. This is a MUST WIN game for the White Sox and I see no reason that they don't defeat Brad Penny today. There is a huge pitching advantage for the White Sox today and they have to capitalize on it. You can run down the list of stats and you will see that Floyd has the advantage in every category. If find it most striking, however, in these two pitchers' ability to get much needed strikeouts. Floyd rings in with a K% over 18% almost doubling Penny's 9.5% (which is pathetic). You can also really highlight the Sox's pitching advantaging when comparing WAR with Floyd at 3.1 to Penny's 0.9 and SIERA with Floyd at 3.59 and Penny at 4.7. When you look at the history against these lineups you will see that Floyd has already beaten Detroit this year in Detroit giving Verlander one of his few losses this year and Floyd will not be intimidated. On the other side, Detroit has already beaten the White Sox THREE times this year with Penny starting. How can that be?! It doesn't even matter because it is extremely difficult to beat the same team four times in one season, especially when you are as bad as Brad Penny. This game is essentially the White Sox's season. If they do not win today, they cannot pick up a game from the Tigers in the division race and their season is pretty much over. Based on the stats alone, I have the White Sox at -118 today against Penny so we're getting over ten cents of value. I expect the CWS price to go up throughout the day even though action is split right now. This is a must win game and I'll take the Sox here for 2x. Good luck.

Play #3

Phillies/Marlins under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting all day for a line move towards the over with the public heavily betting that way, however, it never came. Both pitchers match up well with the opposing hitters as two of Nolasco's best games this year were against the Phillies and only Utley, Howard and Pence have successful histories against him. Unfortunately, right after I locked this one in, the game went to rain delay. I had checked the weather for the wind and it was blowing directly in. I did not see anything about rain, but when I checked another site, it is supposed to have scattered storms in Florida. I am going to monitor the weather. I MAY HAVE TO CANCEL THIS PLAY IF IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING TO RAIN ALL NIGHT BECAUSE THAT WILL MEAN THE BULLPENS WILL HAVE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE THAN I WOULD PREFER. Therefore, if you like this play or are already on it, you may want to keep an eye on the weather. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 09-03-11, 06:14 PM

I really hope they don't call this White Sox game...need that win.

**Love The Action** · 09-03-11, 06:16 PM

Anyone from Florida...how is the weather near the stadium?

**Luv2Play2** · 09-03-11, 06:22 PM

im in clearwater and the weather is hot and sunny

**Luv2Play2** · 09-03-11, 06:25 PM

now im seeing rain in s.fla wtf

**John Blutarsky** · 09-03-11, 06:26 PM

[QUOTE=Love The Action;11271047]I really hope they don't call this White Sox game...need that win.[/

Automatic winner if game is called.... If they continue on thenpen remains a factor

**Love The Action** · 09-03-11, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by John Blutarsky

Automatic winner if game is called.... If they continue on thenpen remains a factor

Depends on your book. Most will cancel your wager because it did make it through a full nine innings.

**John Blutarsky** · 09-03-11, 06:33 PM

Never heard of that..... I thought it was only on totals.... And spreads.... Baseball money lines I thought were autamatic once the results are official with winner and loser determined....

**Luv2Play2** · 09-03-11, 06:33 PM

mine are all at 8 ..on sides

**John Blutarsky** · 09-03-11, 06:38 PM

Since I am logged in and commenting.... I would like to say that I am impressed with your evaluations and enjoy reading your picks..... BOL in the future you deserve success

**Love The Action** · 09-03-11, 06:41 PM

Originally posted by John Blutarsky

Never heard of that..... I thought it was only on totals.... And spreads.... Baseball money lines I thought were autamatic once the results are official with winner and loser determined....

Originally posted by Luv2Play2

mine are all at 8 ..on sides

Maybe I'm thinking of totals. I'm not sure what my local will do. In a year and a half of using this book, this situation has never come up. I hope you guys are right! Good luck!

**Love The Action** · 09-03-11, 06:55 PM

Unfucking real....why couldn't it rain the game out

**Love The Action** · 09-03-11, 06:56 PM

If we lose this Sox game after being up 8 - 1, I will go fuking crazy

**Love The Action** · 09-03-11, 06:57 PM

OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!! I can't believe this! I don't know what to say

**mtcook21** · 09-03-11, 06:58 PM

Jeez, I thought Detroit had a bad bullpen after their meltdown against KC the other day...

**Love The Action** · 09-03-11, 06:59 PM

That was unbelieveable...up 8 - 1 and they lose. I hate that game capped perfectly. No one can tell me that these bullpen collapses will even out because I have not won one fuking game in the last inning. This is a disgrace. I don't think I've ever been more angry...worst beat I've seen --- and I've been through many in the last couple months -- all season. I hate this. Just fuking wrecked my night.

**Luv2Play2** · 09-03-11, 07:00 PM

i wanna ******* get sic.. WTF

**johnob14** · 09-03-11, 07:00 PM

wow....chisox team 4 of my 4 team parlay....sick rigth now....f ing 3 runs in the 9th...WTF

**hawley** · 09-03-11, 07:00 PM

I feel sick for you LTA

brutal

**Love The Action** · 09-03-11, 07:01 PM

They just said that was the biggest comeback in Detroit Tigers history in Comerica Park...ofcourse its on the same game I have a big 2x wager.... come on, these bad beats have to stop

**Luv2Play2** · 09-03-11, 07:12 PM

LTA .. if you have seen some of my replies in other posts ill tell you im about 16-38 in late inns beats in 2 months.. talk about brutal..

**Love The Action** · 09-03-11, 07:14 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 9/3/11

Play #1

Arizona/SF under (6)(-115) 2x (Locked)

I look at this one as a classic low scoring late season playoff battle. I suspect we will see action on both sides with the public settling on a slight under lean. I have this one at 5 as the advanced stats scream under here. Plus, you have a solid under ballpark and at least one team that struggles offensively. However, with both Lincecum and Kennedy pitching, I expect runs to be at a premium. Not only are they the real deal from an advanced stat standpoint, but they also have dominated the other lineups mano a mano. The wind is predicted to be blowing in from right field off the ocean. Wendelstedt is the ump with his over lean, but his strike rate is well over 63% and his previous seasons were pretty even with respect to o/u so this season's results could be an anomoly. I expect the line to stay steady with with juice on the under but it's hard to imagine a move to 5.5 and don't expect it. I have designed my model to love pitchers with great advanced stats and I love playing low total unders across all sports. The Giants are always a solid under bet at home and I'm rolling that way on Saturday night for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

White Sox (-107) 2x (Locked)

Our second play of the day is also another playoff race 2x play. This is a MUST WIN game for the White Sox and I see no reason that they don't defeat Brad Penny today. There is a huge pitching advantage for the White Sox today and they have to capitalize on it. You can run down the list of stats and you will see that Floyd has the advantage in every category. If find it most striking, however, in these two pitchers' ability to get much needed strikeouts. Floyd rings in with a K% over 18% almost doubling Penny's 9.5% (which is pathetic). You can also really highlight the Sox's pitching advantaging when comparing WAR with Floyd at 3.1 to Penny's 0.9 and SIERA with Floyd at 3.59 and Penny at 4.7. When you look at the history against these lineups you will see that Floyd has already beaten Detroit this year in Detroit giving Verlander one of his few losses this year and Floyd will not be intimidated. On the other side, Detroit has already beaten the White Sox THREE times this year with Penny starting. How can that be?! It doesn't even matter because it is extremely difficult to beat the same team four times in one season, especially when you are as bad as Brad Penny. This game is essentially the White Sox's season. If they do not win today, they cannot pick up a game from the Tigers in the division race and their season is pretty much over. Based on the stats alone, I have the White Sox at -118 today against Penny so we're getting over ten cents of value. I expect the CWS price to go up throughout the day even though action is split right now. This is a must win game and I'll take the Sox here for 2x. Good luck.

Play #3

Phillies/Marlins under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting all day for a line move towards the over with the public heavily betting that way, however, it never came. Both pitchers match up well with the opposing hitters as two of Nolasco's best games this year were against the Phillies and only Utley, Howard and Pence have successful histories against him. Unfortunately, right after I locked this one in, the game went to rain delay. I had checked the weather for the wind and it was blowing directly in. I did not see anything about rain, but when I checked another site, it is supposed to have scattered storms in Florida. I am going to monitor the weather. I MAY HAVE TO CANCEL THIS PLAY IF IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING TO RAIN ALL NIGHT BECAUSE THAT WILL MEAN THE BULLPENS WILL HAVE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE THAN I WOULD PREFER. Therefore, if you like this play or are already on it, you may want to keep an eye on the weather. Good luck.

Added 1x for total of 3x AZ/SF under (6)(2x under (6)(-115) and 1x under (6)(-110)

I was planning on adding to this one anyway, but after the Sox game I debated whether I should because of how angry I was. However, I can't let that affect my judgment or go on tilt. So I'm going to add 1x like I had planned as mentioned above, but I will not make a 4x play in hopes of getting the Sox units back. This play does not warrant 4x so I can't do that. Good luck guys. The gambling gods really owe us....

**Redscot** · 09-03-11, 07:25 PM

Unreal bro. Just f-ing unreal. Been taking a beating the last 2 days and thought I at least had that one in the bag.

Brutal. Let's get this late game and finish in the black

. No use crying over spilled milk but you have at least 15 units in 9th inning losses last month or so.

**Luv2Play2** · 09-03-11, 07:34 PM

im wth ya !!!!!!!!!!!!! pay back time .. sf under gl .. and thanks 4 all u do

**BubbleTeaJelly** · 09-03-11, 08:39 PM

gl LTA you're good at what you do...baseball is just baseballl!

**Love The Action** · 09-03-11, 08:41 PM

I'm done for the night...not watching any more sports...got fuked on the Sox and now burned another unit on the Philly under. Time to just sit back with the fam, forget about all this shit and watch a movie. Fuk it...

See you boys tomorrow...we'll be back at it then. For now, fuk this shit

**kanapad** · 09-03-11, 10:19 PM

yeah.... that was though one.... I could not believe it was happening. we get those once in a while and it feels like I am ready to explode. I remember winning few of those llike that too....so I guess you just have to pick up all the pieces and get back up ready for next one.......like nothing to it... LTA, great work overall!!!!!

**funnyman** · 09-04-11, 06:59 AM

I can understand your pain losing like that. Hard to put it behind.