LTA's MLB Plays

[Redscot]

I'm done for the night...not watching any more sports...got fuked on the Sox and now burned another unit on the Philly under. Time to just sit back with the fam, forget about all this shit and watch a movie. Fuk it...

See you boys tomorrow...we'll be back at it then. For now, fuk this shit

You hear them trumpets blowing? That's Redscot's burial . I was on plays with you LTA, rough one. Not only that but got Marmol'd and had a terrible day in college football too. Poor MM on my part. Momma said there'd be days like this.

Back to the grind, I got some serious climbing back to do, haven't had to reload in a very long time, but I am on the precipice.

GL today my man , I always have faith in your work, so grab a shovel if you will and help me start digging my way out.

[miguelj]

lets come back on sunday and put a whippen on then. [ the bookie]

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/4/11

Play #1

Philadelphia/Florida under (7) 2x (Locked)

Sanchez has great advanced numbers despite seeing very little success in conventional numbers or wins/losses. Halladay has top 5 MLB stuff across the board. Interestingly, the books opened this one at 7 instead of the 7.5 that they previously used for this pitching matchup that was posted earlier in the year when Philly did not have Pence and were not hitting as well. That tells me they see a little something extra here in favor of the under. I am a big fan of Sanchez and thinks he rises to the occasion here. I have read numerous articles in which Sanchez states that he relishes the chance to face Halladay and expects to succeed against him. I think Sanchez is prepared for this game and has been looking forward to this game. The ump has a slight under lean and the wind is blowing in from right field. This is an early day game after a late night game because of the rain delay and I think we see a low scoring game. Good luck.

We might have one or two more plays. I am leaving for a BBQ in a few hours, so won't be around today. My card will be final before I leave as I will not be adding later today.

[BigDan]

havnt bet bases in weeks but after a strong day with college fb and not shit to pick from on that front (cant wait till next week when ill be hitting every nfl gm on the board by now, lol) i figured i would jump in, prob is i havnt really been following closely enough so take with a grain of salt..

Nats-124

twinks +150 (number just to big) twinks tt ov? possibly over for gm?

Cards-1.5 or tt ov?

maybe just maybe atl tt un but not thrilled bout it, and ll look into your phi/fla under....thoughts?

[Dexter]

GL today buddy

[miguelj]

good luck big dan.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/4/11

Play #1

Philadelphia/Florida under (7) 2x (Locked)

Sanchez has great advanced numbers despite seeing very little success in conventional numbers or wins/losses. Halladay has top 5 MLB stuff across the board. Interestingly, the books opened this one at 7 instead of the 7.5 that they previously used for this pitching matchup that was posted earlier in the year when Philly did not have Pence and were not hitting as well. That tells me they see a little something extra here in favor of the under. I am a big fan of Sanchez and thinks he rises to the occasion here. I have read numerous articles in which Sanchez states that he relishes the chance to face Halladay and expects to succeed against him. I think Sanchez is prepared for this game and has been looking forward to this game. The ump has a slight under lean and the wind is blowing in from right field. This is an early day game after a late night game because of the rain delay and I think we see a low scoring game. Good luck.

Play #2

Arizona ML (+105) 2x (Locked)

I hate playing public dogs, but I have to fade Vogelsong in this crucial spot. Vogelsong has had a breakout year, but has regressed lately and I expect that regression to continue the rest of the year. Furthermore, even though Vogelsong has had a good year, Hudson has been better across the board when you compare advanced stats: e.g. Hudson WAR of 4.3, Vogelson WAR of 2; Hudson FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to low 3's with Vogelsong in the high 3's or low 4's; etc. Arizona has made a believer out of me, despite the loss of Drew and they have the better lineup and are the hotter team right now. The books set the Giants as a -120 favorite to open, which is pretty standard for a home game where the SP's conventional stats are similar. I think if this was a "trap" game, they would have opened up a little higher on SF in the -128 range. Last year, the Giants were the hot team at the end of the year that rode their hot streak all the way to the World Series. I'm not saying that Arizona is going to the WS, but I think they are the hot team that will take the NL West Division Crown and will pound that point home today when they pound Vogelsong. I'm rolling with Arizona for 2x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/4/11

Play #1

Philadelphia/Florida under (7) 2x (Locked)

Sanchez has great advanced numbers despite seeing very little success in conventional numbers or wins/losses. Halladay has top 5 MLB stuff across the board. Interestingly, the books opened this one at 7 instead of the 7.5 that they previously used for this pitching matchup that was posted earlier in the year when Philly did not have Pence and were not hitting as well. That tells me they see a little something extra here in favor of the under. I am a big fan of Sanchez and thinks he rises to the occasion here. I have read numerous articles in which Sanchez states that he relishes the chance to face Halladay and expects to succeed against him. I think Sanchez is prepared for this game and has been looking forward to this game. The ump has a slight under lean and the wind is blowing in from right field. This is an early day game after a late night game because of the rain delay and I think we see a low scoring game. Good luck.

Play #2

Arizona ML (+105) 2x (Locked)

I hate playing public dogs, but I have to fade Vogelsong in this crucial spot. Vogelsong has had a breakout year, but has regressed lately and I expect that regression to continue the rest of the year. Furthermore, even though Vogelsong has had a good year, Hudson has been better across the board when you compare advanced stats: e.g. Hudson WAR of 4.3, Vogelson WAR of 2; Hudson FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to low 3's with Vogelsong in the high 3's or low 4's; etc. Arizona has made a believer out of me, despite the loss of Drew and they have the better lineup and are the hotter team right now. The books set the Giants as a -120 favorite to open, which is pretty standard for a home game where the SP's conventional stats are similar. I think if this was a "trap" game, they would have opened up a little higher on SF in the -128 range. Last year, the Giants were the hot team at the end of the year that rode their hot streak all the way to the World Series. I'm not saying that Arizona is going to the WS, but I think they are the hot team that will take the NL West Division Crown and will pound that point home today when they pound Vogelsong. I'm rolling with Arizona for 2x. Good luck.

Card is final. Heading out to my buddy's BBQ with the fam. Just going to eat, drink and laugh all day. Going to play a lot of "Kan Jam" (if you know what that is) and not check the scores or games at all. Good luck to Redscot, Big Dan, Miguel J, Dexter and everyone else that stopped by. Let's have a bounce back Sunday to end the week.

Good luck!!!!!!!

[BigDan]

ended up with. STL-1.5 +135, Nats -127. Hou tt un 3....GL Lta and friends.....have fun day bro, actually going to some fams for a bbq myself

[Redscot]

Card is final. Heading out to my buddy's BBQ with the fam. Just going to eat, drink and laugh all day. Going to play a lot of "Kan Jam" (if you know what that is) and not check the scores or games at all. Good luck to Redscot, Big Dan, Miguel J, Dexter and everyone else that stopped by. Let's have a bounce back Sunday to end the week.

Good luck!!!!!!!

That is what life is all about bro . Enjoy the Fam and the frisbee.
On a side I headed out early to the countryside,made one bet, Dodgers.......yup, you know the rest.

Gl on the Zona game, will be pulling for you and any tailers.

Back to the lab for me, gonna need a lot of anesthesia after the last couple of days.


Good to see ya around Big D, hope all is well, throw some NCAA winners my way, I am funkier than grannies panties right now. .

[JuniorAnalyst]

Arizona was a great play

[BiffTFinancial]

LTA, i wanted to add a MLB play mid-afternoon since light CFB slate and like you was heading out to party. tailed your Dbacks play. checked in a few times when it was 1-0 Giants midway, then caught the final. thanks, pal, nice call.

[pacocn]

Lta, what is "kan jam"? I do not know what it is.
Great call on Zona

[funnyman]

Have a nice Labor day.

[Love The Action]

Arizona was a great play

LTA, i wanted to add a MLB play mid-afternoon since light CFB slate and like you was heading out to party. tailed your Dbacks play. checked in a few times when it was 1-0 Giants midway, then caught the final. thanks, pal, nice call.

Lta, what is "kan jam"? I do not know what it is.
Great call on Zona

Have a nice Labor day.

Thanks guys and happy labor day to you as well

Paco - Kan Jam is pretty fun game that we all play now because "bags" just got too easy for all of us. This is something new and, to be honest, I like it better than bags. http://www.kanjam.com/Game/HowToPlay.aspx

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kan-jam

[Love The Action]

I am so pissed I slept through the line move on the Detroit/Cleveland under down to 8. I really liked it at 8.5 but I was too drunk last night to lock it in. Damn...to be honest, I still might play it. I generally don't bet into totals that have moved 1/2 run because I lose a lot value and it's generally a "bad" bet. However, if I bet into it at 8, the worst I can do is a push. However, I'm not doing this to push games and the odds of winning are reduced when you bet into stale lines which have already moved. What to do, what to do....

[pacocn]

Lta, checked out the video, the vw van sold me i am
buying a set, man those guys are athletic.

[BiffTFinancial]

I am so pissed I slept through the line move on the Detroit/Cleveland under down to 8. I really liked it at 8.5 but I was too drunk last night to lock it in. Damn...to be honest, I still might play it. I generally don't bet into totals that have moved 1/2 run because I lose a lot value and it's generally a "bad" bet. However, if I bet into it at 8, the worst I can do is a push. However, I'm not doing this to push games and the odds of winning are reduced when you bet into stale lines which have already moved. What to do, what to do....

LTA, fyi, there should be a 15 mph wind from the north which would definitely help the under. played Tribe/KC over yesterday, pretty sure i'll be on this under today. my biggest concern is potential for rain delays always bad for under, so also thinking about FF under.

[Love The Action]

Lta, checked out the video, the vw van sold me i am
buying a set, man those guys are athletic.

Yeah, Pac, Kan Jam is a lot of fun. That's the main game my friends I will play. Ten of us or more usually play either every weekend or every other weekend, depending on our schedules. We just switch off having a BBQ at one guy or another's place, and then throw in $20 each and have tournaments with winner taking all. I'm at the age now with the family and everything that I would rather do that than go to a bar or something like that. I'm over the whole bar/club scene.

Anyway, the game is a ton of fun. It gets harder as you drink more too, because you do need to be able to move around in order to adjust to the frisbee. However, if you have decent hand-eye coordination and can throw a frisbee straight, you will pick up the game really quick. Otherwise, it will take a little while to get used to it and you will need to play a few times because you get good. I highly endorse it though. Hope you enjoy it

[Love The Action]

LTA, fyi, there should be a 15 mph wind from the north which would definitely help the under. played Tribe/KC over yesterday, pretty sure i'll be on this under today. my biggest concern is potential for rain delays always bad for under, so also thinking about FF under.

Wow, thanks for the tip. I hadn't gotten to all the weather stuff yet. That saves me some time. Much appreciated. I'm just starting to get through the whole card now and run everything through my model. I have 7.4 as a total, which would have been golden at 8.5. I still want to play it though but that rain concerns me. This play is highly dependent on the starting pitchers being able to give us just a bit better than a quality start. Keep us updated in here if you can about your decision and weather in this one. Thanks bud!

Oh, and sorry I didn't get back to you in the NCAAF thread, I just saw your question this morning. I didn't even check that thread out yesterday because I was in a bit of a hurry and knew I was not playing the two NCAAF games yesterday. I had no lean on that SMU game anyway, because I wasn't sure if SMU could score on the Aggie defense. Hope you cashed!

[BiffTFinancial]

Wow, thanks for the tip. I hadn't gotten to all the weather stuff yet. That saves me some time. Much appreciated. I'm just starting to get through the whole card now and run everything through my model. I have 7.4 as a total, which would have been golden at 8.5. I still want to play it though but that rain concerns me. This play is highly dependent on the starting pitchers being able to give us just a bit better than a quality start. Keep us updated in here if you can about your decision and weather in this one. Thanks bud! Oh, and sorry I didn't get back to you in the NCAAF thread, I just saw your question this morning. I didn't even check that thread out yesterday because I was in a bit of a hurry and knew I was not playing the two NCAAF games yesterday. I had no lean on that SMU game anyway, because I wasn't sure if SMU could score on the Aggie defense. Hope you cashed!

the wind will help the under, but there's a 40% chance of rain during the game. i like Tribe ML and the under, but may go FF under. i have a range of 7.1 to 7.35, but rain delay is a huge X factor. i will definitely keep an eye on the weather and give an update in the hours before the game. i can also see some merit in Red Sox/Jays under, Rangers/Rays under, Dodgers. i'd like to find 2-3 baseball games today as i have no interest in betting the football game.

no worries on SMU/A&M game. i played the over for 2u, easy butter winner. SMU scored just enough.

[Love The Action]

the wind will help the under, but there's a 40% chance of rain during the game. i like Tribe ML and the under, but may go FF under. i have a range of 7.1 to 7.35, but rain delay is a huge X factor. i will definitely keep an eye on the weather and give an update in the hours before the game. i can also see some merit in Red Sox/Jays under, Rangers/Rays under, Dodgers. i'd like to find 2-3 baseball games today as i have no interest in betting the football game.

no worries on SMU/A&M game. i played the over for 2u, easy butter winner. SMU scored just enough.

Shit...I really like this one Biff, but don't want to play it if it's going to rain. 40% is not a definite and I'm going to ask my local if he will honor 8.5(-120) since that book's online site was down for maintenance this morning when I could have locked it in (my other local only had 8 available). If I can get it for 8.5, I will risk the high juice and play it for 2x. That's a huge division game with two solid pitchers going. I know people knock Jiminez, but I think he's starting to settle in for Cleveland and will be solid down the stretch. At the end of the day, if we can get 6 or seven innings out of him and 3 runs or less, this under should cash. I expect Fister to pitch really well against this lineup.

[BiffTFinancial]

Shit...I really like this one Biff, but don't want to play it if it's going to rain. 40% is not a definite and I'm going to ask my local if he will honor 8.5(-120) since that book's online site was down for maintenance this morning when I could have locked it in (my other local only had 8 available). If I can get it for 8.5, I will risk the high juice and play it for 2x. That's a huge division game with two solid pitchers going. I know people knock Jiminez, but I think he's starting to settle in for Cleveland and will be solid down the stretch. At the end of the day, if we can get 6 or seven innings out of him and 3 runs or less, this under should cash. I expect Fister to pitch really well against this lineup.

i think that i will be on this under (either game or FF in consideration of weather, shitty Tigers pen) and Yanks RL. trying to decide on third play.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/5/11

Play #1

Detroit/Cleveland under (8.5)(-120) 2x or under (8)(-110) for 1x

My book's online site was down for maintenance this morning when I woke up. During that time, the line moved from 8.5 to 8. I have a call into my local agent to see if he will honor the under 8.5 (-120) for 2x. Otherwise, I have reserved 1x at (8)(-110) at the same site once it went up. I am going to ask that he cancel that wager though and give me the 8.5. I suggest if you guys like this play and can still get the 8.5, you should jump on it. Still capping the whole card so no writeups. More plays to come. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I think there's going to be a lot of value on Braves in this series with the Phillies. Derek Lowe is pitching well and we should Hudson going against Worley tomorrow. Perhaps we should chase a Braves win here at plus odds....any thoughts on that. You have to think the Braves at least win one of these game.

[No coincidences]

Hate totals, but I think this is a great one LTA.

[BigBoi]

Im a Braves fan at heart. No Kimbrel today on the backend but got everyday Johnny back there. Braves love facing Lee. This series is make or break for the Braves. Im thinking 2 out of 3.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/5/11

Play #1

Detroit/Cleveland under (8.5)(-120) 2x or under (8)(-110) for 1x

My book's online site was down for maintenance this morning when I woke up. During that time, the line moved from 8.5 to 8. I have a call into my local agent to see if he will honor the under 8.5 (-120) for 2x. Otherwise, I have reserved 1x at (8)(-110) at the same site once it went up. I am going to ask that he cancel that wager though and give me the 8.5. I suggest if you guys like this play and can still get the 8.5, you should jump on it. Still capping the whole card so no writeups. More plays to come. Good luck.

FYI -- Wolf is the ump in this game. Historically, he has more of an under lean than over and a strike rate over 63%. I still have not heard from my local agent, so I don't know whether I will be playing this one for 2x or 1x. I'm hoping they will honor the 8.5. GL.

[bullshooter]

FYI -- Wolf is the ump in this game. Historically, he has more of an under lean than over and a strike rate over 63%. I still have not heard from my local agent, so I don't know whether I will be playing this one for 2x or 1x. I'm hoping they will honor the 8.5. GL.

My Local has dropped it to 7 1/2

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/5/11

Play #1

Detroit/Cleveland under (8.5)(-120) 2x or under (8)(-110) for 1x

My book's online site was down for maintenance this morning when I woke up. During that time, the line moved from 8.5 to 8. I have a call into my local agent to see if he will honor the under 8.5 (-120) for 2x. Otherwise, I have reserved 1x at (8)(-110) at the same site once it went up. I am going to ask that he cancel that wager though and give me the 8.5. I suggest if you guys like this play and can still get the 8.5, you should jump on it. Still capping the whole card so no writeups. More plays to come. Good luck.

CANCELLED

Both of my bets were cancelled on this one because my local agent couldn't help me out with the 8.5 and then he informed me that the maintenance on the site this morning was due to them switching to a new online website. Therefore, the play I put in earlier at 8 was cancelled too. Because I have no money on this play, I am not counting it in the records win or lose. Not really happy about it because I really like this play, but shit happens and this local is generally very fair. Good luck for those on the under!

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/5/11

Play #1

Reds/Cubs under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Garza's advanced stats are very good and Dontrelle has only given up more than 3 runs once out of his 10 or so starts. The wind is howling in and I think we see a low scoring affair. With 93% of all bets on the over, I like a public fade here and will roll with the under for 1x. This is our first play of the day because the play on Detroit/Cle under was cancelled by my book. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Gl on the Cubbies LTA , I saw it too late, but am on Cleveland under. Grabbed Angels over early this morn at 7 1/2. Find myself attracted to the A's over 8 (local still has it there), although I see it moving up now on most books. Also semi-intrigued with Col under .

Braves line pushing close to +200, hard to resist.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/5/11

Play #1

Reds/Cubs under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Garza's advanced stats are very good and Dontrelle has only given up more than 3 runs once out of his 10 or so starts. The wind is howling in and I think we see a low scoring affair. With 93% of all bets on the over, I like a public fade here and will roll with the under for 1x. This is our first play of the day because the play on Detroit/Cle under was cancelled by my book. Good luck.

Current Leans:

Giants ML
SD/SF under
KC ML
KC/Oak under
Atlanta
Atl/Phi under

[Love The Action]

Gl on the Cubbies LTA , I saw it too late, but am on Cleveland under. Grabbed Angels over early this morn at 7 1/2. Find myself attracted to the A's over 8 (local still has it there), although I see it moving up now on most books. Also semi-intrigued with Col under .

Braves line pushing close to +200, hard to resist.

Layne is the ump in Oakland. The line opened at 8.5. I lean under but won't play it. I lean more to Royals +150. Just not sure if Paulino's back will hold up.

[Redscot]

What's your thoughts on the K.C.-Oak game my man?

My concern is the SP situation for KC. This from the team report:

Yost plans to have both Paulino and Adcock warm up in the bullpen before the game Monday at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. Yost said he does not know how Paulino’s back will react after a long flight Sunday to Oakland.
So as not to take any chances of Paulino’s back going out again while throwing in the bullpen, he will have Adcock also throwing side-by-side.


As you know Paulino was scratched from last start.