LTA's MLB Plays

[miguelj]

take the over 9

[Love The Action]

Big game !!! Take the dog gl always

CC is much better than Lackey. It's hard to beat the same pitcher five times in ove season, especially one as good as fat boy. Both offenses and bullpens are equal. Therefore, the yanks have a decided edge with this sp matchup. The red sox seem too easy here. Yanks or no play.

[miguelj]

like you said sooner or later he has to win.

[miguelj]

plus l think the yankees are missing a few player

[Holdin Aces]

Can boston beat him for a fifth time, second with Lackey? I don't think so. Thoughts?

I think the Yanks win this one. I really like the Yanks Team total over 4.5 more than anything. Good luck.

[miguelj]

Nice play

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/30/11

Play #1

Cubs ML (+134) 1.25x (Locked)

If I was not slumping right now, I would take this for at least 2x. I really like the Cubs in this spot as they have the better offense and starting pitcher, with a bullpen that is equal to or better than the current state of the Giants bullpen. Let's face it, the Giants' bullpen is shell of its former self. I respect that the Giants are a top 10 defense, and much better than the Cubs, but the Cubs are playing just a bit better right now. Plus, the edge in starting pitching this matchup is pronounced. Garza has a 3.8 WAR compared to Vogelsong's to 2.1 and Garza has the advantage by almost a full run with respect to FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA with Garza's numbers in the low 3's while Vogelsong is in the low 4's or 3.9's. Garza is a much better strikeout pitcher that has been the victim of piss poor defense, much of it his own doing like last game versus the Braves where his first inning error cost him 3 unearned runs. Nevertheless, Garza is far and away the better pitcher in this matchup. If you go up and down the projected lineups right now, the Giants don't have anyone that can compare to elite hitters like the Cubs' Castro and Rodriguez. Plus, the second tier hitters on the Cubs are better than those types of hitters on the Giants. Finally, as sad as it is to say, I would rather have the Marshall/Wood to Marmol relief combination than relying on what the Giants are putting out there right now. I really wish the Cubs would have gotten killed on Monday night, so as to generate some more Giants support, but I have to play the Cubs here. I have the Cubs at +121 in this, so we are getting 13 cents in value here. I think it's definitely fishy that the Giants opened as -145 at Pinny, which was the same at Greek and MB, because Pinny usually posts cheaper favorites. Nevertheless, I am very confident this one gets down to the +120 range by game time and we beat the closer on this one. Good luck.

Play #2

Padres/Dodgers under (6.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I have this one at 5.6, almost a full run off the total and I expect a closing price that has the under juiced at -115 or more so we should save ourselves about 15 cents from buying this one early. I have backed Stauffer quite a bit this season, not always successful, but more often than not. Although he has regressed and seen his WAR rating slide down to 1.1, he remains a successful guy because of his consistency. Out of his 27 starts this season, he has only given up more than 3 earned runs seven times. That's pretty consistent. It's the same way with Kuroda, who only had five games of giving up more than 3 earned runs in his 25+ starts this season. Plus, as we all know, Kuroda would have a much better record if he received a bit more run support. Both pitchers are in the 3.5 to 3.9 range for FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA but the key to this play is both pitchers ability to get both strikeouts and ground balls outs. Both of these pitchers have that rare ability as evidenced by K%'s over 16% and his GB/FB's from 1.3 to 1.8. Iassogna is the ump and he is going on his second year of having an under lean after pretty even o/u results for the earlier part of his career. His strike percentage comes in at about 62.5%, so it could be a bit better, but his runs/game/avg is pretty solid for under players at 7.9. I am going to take the under in this series two game in a row and roll with the under here for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Royals/Tigers under (9)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Had a writeup all ready to go and my phone froze. I don't have time for another full one but I will say that Francis is very underrated and Fister is solid across the board. Cuzzi is a big under ump two of the last three years and very profitable on the under this year. We got a better than market price at 9, even with the -120 juice and I am not sure pinny will ever go up to 9 even though everyone is on the over. Keep an eye on this one because if pinny, greek and mb stay at 8.5, that is telling. I jumped at 9 as soon as I saw it
because I think we see rlm on the under at some point as sharp money comes in. Both pitchers have fared well against the opposing line ups and are be able to force ground balls and keep the ball in the park. The wind is
blowing across field so that helps as well. Everyone is on the over here which helped us get a good number at 9 but I think it will close at 8.5 even with the majority of all bets on the over. If you can get 9 and you like this play, you should take it now. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Yankees ML (-132) 0.75x (Locked)

Good luck!

[Love The Action]

I have to roll with the yanks tonight. I have this one around -140, so we're getting a good price for a superior pitcher who has the odds on his side. Boston can certainly win, but I think CC mans up tonight and gets it done. That and I think the bombers shellack Lackey. I'll take the yanks at just a bit under 1x at 0.75x. Good luck!

[italianbandit]

good luck tonight, I'm with you on the totals.

[shocktopme]

.

ebemiss........you might try this and chill dude!!!!LTA not forcing bets on anyone!!!!!!Good Luck LTA!!!

[Love The Action]

good luck tonight, I'm with you on the totals.

I'm a little worried about the recent line move on the over, but lets see what happens before the close. Good luck Bandit!

[Love The Action]

ebemiss........you might try this and chill dude!!!!LTA not forcing bets on anyone!!!!!!Good Luck LTA!!!

Damn that looks tasty

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/31/11

Play #1

Angels/Mariners under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I think we see this one end up with the under getting juiced with the majority of bets on the over in the 60/40 range as one of the rare non-public under plays between aces. I expect most to be on the over because of the low number and the recent offensive surge of both teams. However, even though the Angles are hitting well right now, King Felix is at home and pitching his best ball of the season. On the other side, Haren is looking to bounce back from a nightmarish performance against the Rangers. Both pitchers have pitched very well against the opposing lineups with BAA's around .250 and OPS around .650. I won't go through all the advanced stats, because these are two of the very best pitchers in the game with some of the most value to their teams as evidenced by a WAR of 5.3 for Haren and 4.6 for Hernandez. Both pitchers can get the much needed strikeout with K% over 20% and ground ball with both over a 1.1 GB/FB. Knight is the ump who is pretty neutral with a slight historical over lean, but his strike rate is right at 63% range so I don't think he'll hurt us in this one. With this game being in Seattle, we get the advantage of the spacious dimensions at Safeco. I have this one at 5.1 and am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[pacocn]

Lta, as usual great job today bol
on that under tomorrow.

[Love The Action]

Lta, as usual great job today bol
on that under tomorrow.

Good luck tomorrow my friend...interesting in seeing all of your plays

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/30/11 Recap

3 - 1 = +2.375

Stauffer just did not have it tonight as he walked in multiple Dodgers hitters tonight in costing us the sweep. Not only did I lose the play, but that was the only play in which I did not beat the closing line. Therefore, that was just a bad call on my part all the way around. Still, we had a nice night overall in cashing the Cubs, Yanks and Tigers under. Let's just keep the momentum going.

MLB Season 2011

368 - 336 = +23.535x

Onto Wednesday and back to the grind. As the real playoff important games near, the frequency of our big plays will increase. Looking forward to some big ones. For now, we'll roll with a 1x play on the LAA/Mariners game for Wednesday. I am also considering two or three more plays right now, but want to wait until the morning to see if we get some movement that I expect. Off to bed...good night and good luck!

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/31/11

Play #1

Angels/Mariners under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I think we see this one end up with the under getting juiced with the majority of bets on the over in the 60/40 range as one of the rare non-public under plays between aces. I expect most to be on the over because of the low number and the recent offensive surge of both teams. However, even though the Angles are hitting well right now, King Felix is at home and pitching his best ball of the season. On the other side, Haren is looking to bounce back from a nightmarish performance against the Rangers. Both pitchers have pitched very well against the opposing lineups with BAA's around .250 and OPS around .650. I won't go through all the advanced stats, because these are two of the very best pitchers in the game with some of the most value to their teams as evidenced by a WAR of 5.3 for Haren and 4.6 for Hernandez. Both pitchers can get the much needed strikeout with K% over 20% and ground ball with both over a 1.1 GB/FB. Knight is the ump who is pretty neutral with a slight historical over lean, but his strike rate is right at 63% range so I don't think he'll hurt us in this one. With this game being in Seattle, we get the advantage of the spacious dimensions at Safeco. I have this one at 5.1 and am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Oakland/Cleveland under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Pinny and MB are already juicing the under ever so slightly after opening up with juice on the over. I think we see this one at -115 or more juice on the under by gametime. I am not a fan of Rich Harden in any way and Ubaldo is not having a good year. However, because of the injuries to Cleveland's offense, I think these two teams close out the series with three unders in a row. Despite Harden's fragility, he is not having the worst season in the world with a highly respectable 3.35 SIERA. Harden's speciality is missing bats and strikeouts and his K% is again very healthy at 26.7%. Although I wish is SwStr% was a bit higher like in the past, I can still respect 11.8% and a Z-Contract% of 84%. I wish Harden would not throw so many line drives and fly balls, and homers for that matter (1.5 HR/9), but that's just who he is and you have to live with that risk to some extent. On the other side, despite Ubaldo's poor season I think we saw some flashes of his former self in his last game against the Royals limiting them to one run over seven innings. Jiminez still has solid value to his team with 2.8 WAR and his FIP, xFIP and SIERA still ring in at the mid 3's. Jiminez is much more of the complete package than Harden as he will give you both strikeouts with a 22% K% and ground balls with a GB/FB over 1.4. The ump is Dreckman who has a healthy strike rate over 63% with no pronounced lean throughout his previous seasons. The wind is projected to be blowing from the ENE by gametime, which is pretty much straight in from right field. I have this one projected at 7.3 and with the injuries to Choo, Brantley, Hafner and Sizemore of the Indians lineup, I think Harden can find some success today. Both pitchers threw around 100 pitches in their last start, so they should be relatively rested and ready to go. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[shortdog]

Great job last night Lta! Keep doing your thing buddy

[BeBrave]

Ill buy that

[CHAZ]

Great stuff LTA! Keep it up bud

[GGALLERT]

Any chances of AZ-COL? LOVE AZ RL here, Colorado Sucks. Esmil will allow about 5 runs, the bullpen add another 3-4, Collmenter maybe 3...

[Love The Action]

Any chances of AZ-COL? LOVE AZ RL here, Colorado Sucks. Esmil will allow about 5 runs, the bullpen add another 3-4, Collmenter maybe 3...

I agree, but would rather play -1rl so I avoid a loss on a one run win. I am considering AZ as well.

I also really like the cubs/giants under.

Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I missed out on the James Shields line move from +129 to +111. I just couldn't pull the trigger last night because I think Ogando will bounce back and the Texas lineup is better than TB even with the injuries. Tough game to call...

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/31/11

Play #1

Angels/Mariners under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I think we see this one end up with the under getting juiced with the majority of bets on the over in the 60/40 range as one of the rare non-public under plays between aces. I expect most to be on the over because of the low number and the recent offensive surge of both teams. However, even though the Angles are hitting well right now, King Felix is at home and pitching his best ball of the season. On the other side, Haren is looking to bounce back from a nightmarish performance against the Rangers. Both pitchers have pitched very well against the opposing lineups with BAA's around .250 and OPS around .650. I won't go through all the advanced stats, because these are two of the very best pitchers in the game with some of the most value to their teams as evidenced by a WAR of 5.3 for Haren and 4.6 for Hernandez. Both pitchers can get the much needed strikeout with K% over 20% and ground ball with both over a 1.1 GB/FB. Knight is the ump who is pretty neutral with a slight historical over lean, but his strike rate is right at 63% range so I don't think he'll hurt us in this one. With this game being in Seattle, we get the advantage of the spacious dimensions at Safeco. I have this one at 5.1 and am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Oakland/Cleveland under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Pinny and MB are already juicing the under ever so slightly after opening up with juice on the over. I think we see this one at -115 or more juice on the under by gametime. I am not a fan of Rich Harden in any way and Ubaldo is not having a good year. However, because of the injuries to Cleveland's offense, I think these two teams close out the series with three unders in a row. Despite Harden's fragility, he is not having the worst season in the world with a highly respectable 3.35 SIERA. Harden's speciality is missing bats and strikeouts and his K% is again very healthy at 26.7%. Although I wish is SwStr% was a bit higher like in the past, I can still respect 11.8% and a Z-Contract% of 84%. I wish Harden would not throw so many line drives and fly balls, and homers for that matter (1.5 HR/9), but that's just who he is and you have to live with that risk to some extent. On the other side, despite Ubaldo's poor season I think we saw some flashes of his former self in his last game against the Royals limiting them to one run over seven innings. Jiminez still has solid value to his team with 2.8 WAR and his FIP, xFIP and SIERA still ring in at the mid 3's. Jiminez is much more of the complete package than Harden as he will give you both strikeouts with a 22% K% and ground balls with a GB/FB over 1.4. The ump is Dreckman who has a healthy strike rate over 63% with no pronounced lean throughout his previous seasons. The wind is projected to be blowing from the ENE by gametime, which is pretty much straight in from right field. I have this one projected at 7.3 and with the injuries to Choo, Brantley, Hafner and Sizemore of the Indians lineup, I think Harden can find some success today. Both pitchers threw around 100 pitches in their last start, so they should be relatively rested and ready to go. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Card is final. Only other lean is the Braves under, but that one is not worth -120. Looks like there was a small move on the over in the indians game and we will lose out on about 5 cents since we can get it at even odds now. However, I still like that play because neither lineup has more than a few guys who have faced these pitchers and we definitely have that advantage working for us.

As an fyi, I have been capping ncaaf and nfl for 30 minutes per day since mid august and I'm ready to start my football threads. Keep an eye out tonight or tomorrow night as I will be posting this weekends football plays relatively.soon. Good luck tonight!

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/1/11

Play #1

Angels -1 RL (-112) 1x (Locked)

We have a huge pitching mismatch here at a great price. This one's currently at about -158 on the ML and I have it at -175. I'm not really a big fan of playing that much juice, so I'll risk the push here because I think the Angels roll. I won't even go through all the stats, but one illustration of this SP mismatch shows in their WAR ratings where Santana comes in at 3.3 compared to Furbush's -0.1. This one will surely be a public play, but there will also be plenty of sharp money on it as well. I expect the ML to get into that -175 territory by close and that sort of jump is not going to be fueled by public money also so I'm jumping on the -1RL now for 1x at the cheapest price we will see. Good luck.

[miguelj]

LTA thanks for the plays

[Love The Action]

LTA thanks for the plays

[figue]

[Love The Action]

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 8/31/11

2 - 0 = +2x

MLB Season 2011

370 - 336 = +25.535x

A nice night, but we move onto Thursday. I already have a -1 RL play on the Angels locked and loaded...possible addition to the stake of that wager with the Mariners winning tonight. I am looking hard at one more possible play for Thursday. Also working very hard on my NCAAF card for this weekend. My model has zeroed in on two totals that I really like so far. I have just a bit more work to do. Back at it now. Good luck to everyone on Thursday.

[hawley]

Good job today bro, keep the haters away

[pacocn]

Lta, will u be posting your football plays here as well?
Great job today

[miguelj]

this is a non hater trend section keep up the good work L.T.A.

[Love The Action]

Lta, will u be posting your football plays here as well?
Great job today

Yep...in the football forums here on sbr. Good luck today

[GemSportsPicks]

Good job today bro, keep the haters away

In the words of Cat Thomas "Everyone could use some Haters, infact if there are any haters here, that need someone to hate on, feel free to hate on me"

Keep doin good work LTA.