LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

What's your thoughts on the K.C.-Oak game my man?

My concern is the SP situation for KC. This from the team report:

Yost plans to have both Paulino and Adcock warm up in the bullpen before the game Monday at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. Yost said he does not know how Paulino’s back will react after a long flight Sunday to Oakland.
So as not to take any chances of Paulino’s back going out again while throwing in the bullpen, he will have Adcock also throwing side-by-side.


As you know Paulino was scratched from last start.

Yeah, that's my concern. I lean to the Royals, just not sure I can play them because of Paulino. I have a very tiny under lean, but won't play it. The wind is blowing out, but Layne is the ump. Good luck...let me know what you decide.

I am thinking very hard about the Giants ML. M-bomb should dominate SD today.

[Redscot]

Yeah, that's my concern. I lean to the Royals, just not sure I can play them because of Paulino. I have a very tiny under lean, but won't play it. The wind is blowing out, but Layne is the ump. Good luck...let me know what you decide.

I am thinking very hard about the Giants ML. M-bomb should dominate SD today.

I think due to the uncertainty I am gonna play it at 8.

I like Baum to do well today as well, gotta figure S.F. bats wake up at some point. Haven't had the time to get too in depth but if you pull the trigger I will definitely tail.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/5/11

Play #1

Reds/Cubs under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Garza's advanced stats are very good and Dontrelle has only given up more than 3 runs once out of his 10 or so starts. The wind is howling in and I think we see a low scoring affair. With 93% of all bets on the over, I like a public fade here and will roll with the under for 1x. This is our first play of the day because the play on Detroit/Cle under was cancelled by my book. Good luck.

Play #2

Giants ML (-108) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Padres/Giants under (6.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I'm not a fan of playing both the side and total in the same game, but these are two of the highest rated plays by my model and I'm going to take a shot at hitting both the side and the total here. Baumgarner is pitching his best ball and the Padres are not the best against lefties. Stauffer struggled with seven walks in his last outting and I expect him to be fresh against the light hitting Giants. MBaum's advanced stats are top 10 MLB stuff and Staffer's are solid. I got a great price on the total at 6.5 -105 and I think one ends with a 4-1 type score with the Giants winning. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Play #2

Giants ML (-108) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Padres/Giants under (6.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I'm not a fan of playing both the side and total in the same game, but these are two of the highest rated plays by my model and I'm going to take a shot at hitting both the side and the total here. Baumgarner is pitching his best ball and the Padres are not the best against lefties. Stauffer struggled with seven walks in his last outting and I expect him to be fresh against the light hitting Giants. MBaum's advanced stats are top 10 MLB stuff and Staffer's are solid. I got a great price on the total at 6.5 -105 and I think one ends with a 4-1 type score with the Giants winning. Good luck.

Riding along bro, cashed Clev., nice call

[Luv2Play2]

well that suxz

CANCELLED

Both of my bets were cancelled on this one because my local agent couldn't help me out with the 8.5 and then he informed me that the maintenance on the site this morning was due to them switching to a new online website. Therefore, the play I put in earlier at 8 was cancelled too. Because I have no money on this play, I am not counting it in the records win or lose. Not really happy about it because I really like this play, but shit happens and this local is generally very fair. Good luck for those on the under!

cuze its a f&cking winner.. made my day.. thankz LTA

[Love The Action]

Riding along bro, cashed Clev., nice call

cuze its a f&cking winner.. made my day.. thankz LTA

Glad you guys made some money...really pissed I didn't. Talk about some bullshit...and just representative of the bullshit that's been happening to me lately. Fuk.

[Love The Action]

And a groundball error on Castro at shortstop fuked up my under in Chicago. I am so frustrated with this baseball right now

[Love The Action]

I think due to the uncertainty I am gonna play it at 8.

Great call on that KC/Oak over Red

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/5/11

Play #1

Reds/Cubs under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Garza's advanced stats are very good and Dontrelle has only given up more than 3 runs once out of his 10 or so starts. The wind is howling in and I think we see a low scoring affair. With 93% of all bets on the over, I like a public fade here and will roll with the under for 1x. This is our first play of the day because the play on Detroit/Cle under was cancelled by my book. Good luck.

We get the push thanks to a relay throw from right field to get a guy trying for home in the eighth. I guess that could be considered luck. However, 3 errors in the game cost us 2 runs and this game should have been a 4 - 1 Cubs win giving us a winner. Still, it's better than a loss.

[Redscot]

We get the push thanks to a relay throw from right field to get a guy trying for home in the eighth. I guess that could be considered luck. However, 3 errors in the game cost us 2 runs and this game should have been a 4 - 1 Cubs win giving us a winner. Still, it's better than a loss.

The baseball Gods have beaten you down lately my man, we've been reduced to the highlighted comment above.

I have supreme confidence you have a nice run around the corner man, your approach is too solid/consistent to keep down .

Baum is doing his thing but San Fran's bats need to chill!

[Love The Action]

And ofcourse another 8th inning collapse by the Padres burns our under. Hopefully, SF can hold on for the split and not meltdown like the Sox

[Luv2Play2]

do you feel like the errors are way up this year ? theres like 2-3 in every ficking game!!!

[hawley]

Bumgarner is dealing out there - 13K's

Shame the Padres put in a gascan reliever to load the bases there in the 8th to ruin your under.

[hawley]

As i posted he gives up his second run.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/5/11

Play #1

Reds/Cubs under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Garza's advanced stats are very good and Dontrelle has only given up more than 3 runs once out of his 10 or so starts. The wind is howling in and I think we see a low scoring affair. With 93% of all bets on the over, I like a public fade here and will roll with the under for 1x. This is our first play of the day because the play on Detroit/Cle under was cancelled by my book. Good luck.

Play #2

Giants ML (-108) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Padres/Giants under (6.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I'm not a fan of playing both the side and total in the same game, but these are two of the highest rated plays by my model and I'm going to take a shot at hitting both the side and the total here. Baumgarner is pitching his best ball and the Padres are not the best against lefties. Stauffer struggled with seven walks in his last outting and I expect him to be fresh against the light hitting Giants. MBaum's advanced stats are top 10 MLB stuff and Staffer's are solid. I got a great price on the total at 6.5 -105 and I think one ends with a 4-1 type score with the Giants winning. Good luck.

Play #4

Braves ML (+205) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Braves/Phillies under (7)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Good luck!

[Love The Action]

So...just some thoughts on why I took the Braves and under. First, I think we have a ton of value tonight on the Braves. This is overpriced by about 40 cents with a hot Lowe on the mound against a team in the Braves who have been able to hit Lee a little. The Phillies are not invincible, although I do think they are a great team. Lowe has been pitching well and has a solid history against this particular lineup. I think the under is the play here because we had some slight late movement that way on the line and very few outlets ever went to 7.5. I think the worst we do is split this here and with both plays at plus odds, we won't eat any juice. However, if the Braves can win here, we will guaranty ourselves some profit on the night. I have the total at 6.5, so it's not great value on the under. But Iassogna is the ump and he is one of the better under umps this year. The wind is blowing out, but it's only at 6 mph so that shouldn't be too much of a factor. I think this should be a low scoring grind it out game. Not that I'm going to do it, but I think this series presents some interesting chase opportunities with the Braves at plus odds. I'm rolling with the Braves and the under. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Or not...ballgame

[JR007]

maybe you will get some" softer" lines now

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 9/3/11 - 9/5/11

2 - 5 - 1 = -8x

Fuking brutal labor day weekend....

MLB Season 2011

373 - 345 = +16.985x

From winning bets getting cancelled, to three runs in the Cubs game forcing the push to a bunch of errors in the 8th inning of the SF game to lose that under, all followed up with what turned out to be very bad calls to back the Braves tonight. Back to the drawing board. Gotta break this negative momentum.

[BennyFang]

I liked the under play tonight. My only fear was what happened; the Phillies would take it over by themselves. Brutal is right. Ironically, I lost the only play you won (Pads). They and Braves killed me. Mondays and Fridays have been, in general, the worst days of the week for me....but I still keep playing them like any other day. Will I ever learn?

BOL

[Love The Action]

I liked the under play tonight. My only fear was what happened; the Phillies would take it over by themselves. Brutal is right. Ironically, I lost the only play you won (Pads). They and Braves killed me. Mondays and Fridays have been, in general, the worst days of the week for me....but I still keep playing them like any other day. Will I ever learn?

BOL

Baseball is a crazy game, but you just have to take each day fresh and try to forget about the previous day win or lose. You have to think of the MLB season just like groundhog day -- the same thing over and over -- just different games with hopefully more wins than losses. I'm frustrated as shit right now, but when I wake up tomorrow it will be a new day with new games.

Benny...what do you think about the Braves tomorrow. I bet tonight's game with the intent of betting chasing Atlanta and Hudson over Worley and Philly. We'll see. The question is if the line is going to up or down on ATL based on RLM. Opened at +120 and was bet down to +118 on Pinny.

[Love The Action]

Red - Nice hit on the Angels over. You killed the closer and brought home an easy win

[BennyFang]

Baseball is a crazy game, but you just have to take each day fresh and try to forget about the previous day win or lose. You have to think of the MLB season just like groundhog day -- the same thing over and over -- just different games with hopefully more wins than losses. I'm frustrated as shit right now, but when I wake up tomorrow it will be a new day with new games.

Benny...what do you think about the Braves tomorrow. I bet tonight's game with the intent of betting chasing Atlanta and Hudson over Worley and Philly. We'll see. The question is if the line is going to up or down on ATL based on RLM. Opened at +120 and was bet down to +118 on Pinny.

I haven't looked much at it yet. Watching Angels RL come in to make a terrible day a bit better.

What is the total for the game? This is the best shot the Braves will have in the series. Hudson has been on quite a run. Everyone keeps talking about a regression for Worley but it still hasn't happened. I think the best shot is under assuming it's at least 7.5. Braves have only seen Worley 1 inning this year so he's new to them for all intents & purposes...advantage pitcher. Braves' pen is fresh. What will likely keep me away is similar to the situation in Cleveland today. The weather is not promising and an early rain delay could screw up a total. My gut feel is the line is about right in the +120 range.

[investing4us]

Bounce back game for Atl

Atl opened at +116 5dimes. Line has dropped 4 cents to +112. I say pull the trigger before it drops even more before game time.

[No coincidences]

I've bet against Vance Worley seven straight times.

You know the result(s). I've never seen a guy get "picked up" in his bad starts recently like Worley. Philly's averaging about 7 runs per start over a long stretch where he's been pretty mediocre.

LTA, that took balls to back Baumgardner, given he'd never beaten SD and SF was coming off a demoralizing series with Arizona. I was on the Pads for a decent chunk of change. Stauffer's been dogshit lately.

[hawley]

I was on u8.5 live for a really big chunk.

That f\*\*k reliever loaded the bases and then they walked in one before Hundley or some other punter went deep bottom of the ninth.

THat was the end of my attempt to bet baseball until the playoffs.

[No coincidences]

I was on u8.5 live for a really big chunk.

That f\*\*k reliever loaded the bases and then they walked in one before Hundley or some other punter went deep bottom of the ninth.

THat was the end of my attempt to bet baseball until the playoffs.

SD's bullpen is atrocious now.

[BubbleTeaJelly]

stay positive brother!!!

[hawley]

SD's bullpen is atrocious now.

I just dont understand why they went to Fulchino, allowed him to load the bases and give up a run before getting him out.

[Redscot]

Red - Nice hit on the Angels over. You killed the closer and brought home an easy win

Thanks bud . I turned the corner a bit yesterday, Cleveland under didn't hurt .

Gonna be out on the farm all day, no internet, no blackberry nada. Gonna be in early evening to see what you're on bro. I know a good run is on tap.



Thought I'd share this even though don't think it effects capping much.

http://www.baseballanalytics.org/baseball-analytics-blog/2011/8/25/who-is-benefiting-from-an-expanded-strike-zone.html

3 Yanks in top 10....hmmmmmm

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/6/11

Play #1

Mariner/Angels under (6.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Braves ML (+115) 1x (Locked(

Play #3

Braves/Phillies under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

That's what I have so far. More to come. Off to work. Good luck!

[Luv2Play2]

gl 2day

[Ca$hfloW]

I am going to play your games, let's hope you get back on track. Bol to us

[Redscot]

MLB 9/6/11

Play #1

Mariner/Angels under (6.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Braves ML (+115) 1x (Locked(

Play #3

Braves/Phillies under (7.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

That's what I have so far. More to come. Off to work. Good luck!

Tailing ya bud , have done no research today.

Blind eye interest's in Texas, Texas under, Stros, S.F. over and Oak over. Any one of those blind eye's jibe with your numbers? I don't intend on playing them with no research.

[azn624]

Been raining all day in philly, game prob gonna get postponed