LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

Yes I have researched it and it's not profitable. Whether more unders than overs hit is irrelevant. You do understand the concept of juice right? at -105 style pricing(pinnacle) you have to be correct 51.25% of the time to break even. That means that over lets say a 10,000 game sample, if it was under 5100 times and over 4900, you would be down money betting the under everytime

Exactly...just like betting overs every time would be even less profitable. It's always a case by case situation. Consequently, your position is pointless and irrelevant. No one bets under on every single total under 8...I know I surely don't.

[Redscot]

Lol I didn't mean that those factors don't affect them, just that whatever affect it has is probably impossible to quantify and useless in trying to find a correct price

I dig it man, and I am sincere when I say I have learned from you. I still hold a modicum of belief that the lines makers are for the most part crunching cold numbers with no soul, and there is a minuscule angle out there for interpretation. Heck, I didn't even know what "beating the closer" was until a month or two ago, yet haven't had a losing season in baseball in years. Haven't made much either .

[God1]

If you think that you can make money betting in extremely crowded markets(for example unders when a super stud is pitching) be my guest. It will be pricey experience

The caveat of course is ALWAYS that if you are consistently beating true closes more often than and by a bigger difference than losing to true closes then this doesn't apply and you are going to make money

[ManBearPig]

This isn't my fight but here's the numbers from 2004 on playing O/U blindly between 5.5 and 8...Here

[Love The Action]

LOL come on. Where did I say overs were profitable? Of course betting overs on all low totals is unprofitable just as betting unders on all low totals is unprofitable. This is in the context you are talking about of all totals between 5.5 and 8

Thank god...so how can you say it's unprofitable to bet unders where there are "stud" pitchers going. It's just a game by game basis decision that you have to make based on the price, the pitchers, the lineups, the umps, weather, etc..

No one is blindly betting certain numbers around here....at least I hope not.

[Love The Action]

If you think that you can make money betting in extremely crowded markets(for example unders when a super stud is pitching) be my guest. It will be pricey experience

The caveat of course is ALWAYS that if you are consistently beating true closes more often than and by a bigger difference than losing to true closes then this doesn't apply and you are going to make money

[God1]

Exactly...just like betting overs every time would be even less profitable. It's always a case by case situation. Consequently, your position is pointless and irrelevant. No one bets under on every single total under 8...I know I surely don't.

My point was being made in a greater context of you are going to lose money betting on the crowded side of a trade(under on a super stud) if you aren't consistently beating the closer. You have an actual, realistic(if small) chance of making money without beating the closer if you are on the empty side of a trade(overs on stud pitchers for example)

[Love The Action]

This isn't my fight but here's the numbers from 2004 on playing O/U blindly between 5.5 and 8...Here

Looks like blindly betting 6.5 is actually profitable...surprising. Thanks MBP

[Love The Action]

My point was being made in a greater context of you are going to lose money betting on the crowded side of a trade(under on a super stud) if you aren't consistently beating the closer. You have an actual, realistic(if small) chance of making money without beating the closer if you are on the empty side of a trade(overs on stud pitchers for example)

I would generally agree with that statement.

[Redscot]

Looks like blindly betting 6.5 is actually profitable...surprising. Thanks MBP

Yeah, and the middling line 7.5-8 is a bitch.

[No coincidences]

If you think that you can make money betting in extremely crowded markets(for example unders when a super stud is pitching) be my guest. It will be pricey experience

Again, where is the proof that unders are regularly pounded with "super studs" pitching?

You are the king of conjecture.

[God1]

Again, where is the proof that unders are regularly pounded with "super studs" pitching?

Do you never look at market data? sportsinsights.com has it for you. If you need some circumstantial confirmation, just look at which side posters on this board overwhelmingly support or when a side is recommended by many of the pick services. It usually lines up very well with the market splits

[Love The Action]

Ofcourse my lean on the Padres/AZ under is looking great as both Luebke and Kennedy are crusing. Meanwhile, the Brewers under will end on 8, we will lose by the 1/2 run and basically prove that betting into a closing number is losing proposition.

[No coincidences]

Do you never look at market data? sportsinsights.com has it for you. If you need some circumstantial confirmation, just look at which side posters on this board overwhelmingly support or when a side is recommended by many of the pick services. It usually lines up very well with the market splits

That is the answer to your theorem?



Again, back to the original argument: please provide proof that the vast majority of public bets are on an under when a stud pitcher toes the rubber.

[Love The Action]

Do you never look at market data? sportsinsights.com has it for you. If you need some circumstantial confirmation, just look at which side posters on this board overwhelmingly support or when a side is recommended by many of the pick services. It usually lines up very well with the market splits

Hmmm, that's something to track. I would bet the action is pretty even with respect to totals set between 5.5 and 8 (i.e. games where "stud" pitchers start). Meaning, if there were 10,000 games in that range over the last x amount of years, I bet somewhere close to 50% of them had 60% or more on the over and vice versa on the under.

[God1]

That is the answer to your theorem?



Again, back to the original argument: please provide proof that the vast majority of public bets are on an under when a stud pitcher toes the rubber.

You highlighted a section of my post, and then ignore the rest that puts it into context. All I said was that the consensus opinion of posters on this board and touts reflects the true market splits very well. I told you where to get your proof, sportsinsights has the market data

[No coincidences]

You highlighted a section of my post, and then ignore the rest that puts it into context. All I said was that the consensus opinion of posters on this board and touts reflects the true market splits very well. I told you where to get your proof, sportsinsights has the market data

Your original argument -- that "its close to impossible to make money betting unders on stud pitchers" -- is nothing more than an opinion. There is no definition to that statement; no guidelines, no clarifications as to what constitutes a "stud pitcher," no proof that the public takes more unders than overs in any given situation or with a given number, etc., etc.

You are no different than anyone else: you spew your bullshit just like all of us. Difference is, you are arrogant enough to blur the lines between fact and opinion. I completely respect your knowledge of the game, but aside from that, your holier than thou attitude -- the "I don't need this board and all of the idiots on it bore me to death" despite the fact that you keep coming around -- is just plain sad.

I wish you'd just stick to discussing games instead of pretending like you're some sort of omnipotent observer of lines. It completely discredits your actual knowledge of the game.

[Love The Action]

I just posted my first two picks for Week 2 in NCAAF. Good luck!

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/1239549-ltas-ncaaf-plays-p2.html

[Love The Action]

Damn...I was really hoping tonight's SD/AZ game would go over so I could get some value on tomorrow's under.

[Love The Action]

I really need this Royals play to cash...damn.

[pacocn]

Lta, we got smoaked

[Love The Action]

Lta, we got smoaked

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/9/11

Play #1

SD/AZ under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

My model has this one at 6.6 and I have to agree that the under is the play here (despite Thur night's game staying under). I suspect this one will end up closing in the -120 range, so I'm going to lock it in now. Hudson versus Latos in a battle of solid young right handers. I won't go through all the stats but Hudson has a WAR over 4 and Latos over 2, with both of them having great advanced stats. Both pitchers have pitched well in small sample sizes against these lineups and the ump is Andy Fletcher, who has a strike rate at 62.9% and a nice under lean for games at 7.5 or lower (and a historical under lean overall). I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

So I hit the hay thinking at least I get a push in Phillie and the under Wsox. Ouchy.

Onwards and upwards, time for a kick ass weekend.

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 9/8/11

0 - 2 - 1 = -2.58x

MLB Season 2011

376 - 350 = +17.205x

[Love The Action]

So I hit the hay thinking at least I get a push in Phillie and the under Wsox. Ouchy.

Onwards and upwards, time for a kick ass weekend.

Baseball is a crazy game some times and we have definitely been getting killed by bullpen collapses in the late innings. However, those breaks have to start evening out and give us some late inning wins. I am disappointed in my recent performance but not discouraged. We have been picking +ev plays with better than 65% chance of cashing in the 7th inning or later. For whatever reason, we have seen those late inning plays have gone against us in spite of the odds in our favor. Eventually, those late innings will start going our way...it's inevitable as long as we keep picking games that are +ev and as long as we keep getting the best prices for our plays on a consistent basis.

I went from +36x to +17x over the last 40 days or so. However, I also lost over +29x in potential profit due to late inning collapses. Therefore, I could just as easily be +50x or more on the season right now instead of +17x. It's crazy how just a few breaks here and there make all the difference in the world. Nevertheless, would be's, could be's are just loser talk. Bottom line, is I have not performed up to my expectations and that is disappointing. However, I am not discouraged because our plays have had great chances to cash late in games. As long as we keep identifying these +ev plays, they will end up cashing and we'll get that seasonal profit back up in the +30x or more range. That is my goal for these last couple months of baseball. Plenty of time.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/9/11

Play #1

SD/AZ under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

My model has this one at 6.6 and I have to agree that the under is the play here (despite Thur night's game staying under). I suspect this one will end up closing in the -120 range, so I'm going to lock it in now. Hudson versus Latos in a battle of solid young right handers. I won't go through all the stats but Hudson has a WAR over 4 and Latos over 2, with both of them having great advanced stats. Both pitchers have pitched well in small sample sizes against these lineups and the ump is Andy Fletcher, who has a strike rate at 62.9% and a nice under lean for games at 7.5 or lower (and a historical under lean overall). I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Big money just came in on the over....this is looking like a bad bet unless we get a shift later on in favor of the over. Win or lose, when the market moves against you after you place your wager, it's not a good investment. I still like the play, but I obviously should have waited because it does not look like we will beat the closer on this one. We'll see...long day ahead.

[Love The Action]

So I have the LAD/SF total at 4.9. I don't think I can play the under at 5.5, but if we can get 6 that will probably be a play. Let's just see where the line goes on that one....

[Redscot]

Any thoughts on K.C. under LTA? Don't know if I go back to the Clev under tonight too. Yank line shooting up fast.

[Love The Action]

Any thoughts on K.C. under LTA? Don't know if I go back to the Clev under tonight too. Yank line shooting up fast.

Don't like the KC under tonight. Should have rode it last night once I saw both TT's getting juiced on the under. Just couldn't trust Vargas and he was on point...bad call on my part in taking KC.

Haven't looked into the Cle/CWS game too much. You have to like Buehrle to keep them to 4 or under. The question is Gomez. That would be a game I would want to see lineups and weather before making the call.

Scary total in the Yanks game. My model has 7.7, so I don't see any value in the over or under at this point.

I am off work but have some family things to take care of today. I am probably going to get shut out of a lot of line movement because I have to leave the house for three hours or so and will miss a lot of the action on the games I'm leaning. However, I'm not ready to pull the trigger on anything else right now so I guess we'll just see where the day takes us. I still need to finish capping about half the card, so there's still a lot of work to be done.

Here are some early leans:

Florida ML
Cardinals ML (I missed the line move and it's already up in the -140's, which is a no-play at that price; Delgado a solid prospect with some command issues, but the stuff to compete in this game against a team that has never seen him...this was a solid play at -125 but an easy pass at -145)
Phillies ML (if you can't beat them, join them and the price is coming down)
Cubs ML (typical Cubs team that wins late in the season after they are already out of contention and all the pressure is off)
LAD/SF under (looking for 6)

I'm out for a few hours. I'm sure I'll have some more plays, but need to finish capping the whole card. I'll be following the Marlins line movement on the phone. I like that play at anything under -120 but would like to know who is in the lineup first. Good luck

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/9/11

Play #1

SD/AZ under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

My model has this one at 6.6 and I have to agree that the under is the play here (despite Thur night's game staying under). I suspect this one will end up closing in the -120 range, so I'm going to lock it in now. Hudson versus Latos in a battle of solid young right handers. I won't go through all the stats but Hudson has a WAR over 4 and Latos over 2, with both of them having great advanced stats. Both pitchers have pitched well in small sample sizes against these lineups and the ump is Andy Fletcher, who has a strike rate at 62.9% and a nice under lean for games at 7.5 or lower (and a historical under lean overall). I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

LAD/SF under (5.5) 2x (Locked)

Play #3

Marlins ML (-115) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Orioles/Blue Jays over (9.5)(-118) 1x (Locked)

Lines started moving while I am on the road...had to lock these in now or risk losing all value. Writeups and perhaps a few more plays to come once I home. Good luck.

[Redscot]

No overnight lines from my book so missed out on the Cards value too. Did get the Zona at 8 though. On the "studs" with ya, but Balty up to 10 already here.

What's with the Florida play killer? Ohlendorf fade? Nolasco ain't been lighting it up himself lately. Curious what your angle is here considering you are pretty conservative playing sides. Obviously you are not alone as my local has it at -125 now.

[Love The Action]

No overnight lines from my book so missed out on the Cards value too. Did get the Zona at 8 though. On the "studs" with ya, but Balty up to 10 already here.

What's with the Florida play killer? Ohlendorf fade? Nolasco ain't been lighting it up himself lately. Curious what your angle is here considering you are pretty conservative playing sides. Obviously you are not alone as my local has it at -125 now.

Nolasco has been cold lately, but he has dominated the bucs throughout his career and his advanced stats still show him to be a solid starting pitcher. This pkay is more in support of Nolasco than fade of ohlly, but he is nothing to write home about. Plus, I think Floridas offense and bullpen is better than pit. I believe Stanton should be in the lineup foir the fish and Andrew McCuthchen is not hitting for the bucs right now. Florida is a better road team than pirates are a home team. I think the pirates are a solid fade from here on out and Nolasco should dominate them again today.

Starting to like a few more games as well as I sit here and wait to pick up our dog from the vet. I am also looking at some ncaaf and nfl plays. This is going to be a big weekend!

Once I get home, I will try to post writeups on these plays and on a few more I might make. GL.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/9/11

Play #1

SD/AZ under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

LAD/SF under (5.5) 2x (Locked)

Play #3

Marlins ML (-115) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Orioles/Blue Jays over (9.5)(-118) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Astros ML (+126) 1x (Locked)

Good luck!

[Love The Action]

Note:

Never consider RLM against the Phillies when deciding to make a play. It seems like there is RLM against them every single day, yet they come out and score in the first inning seemingly on a daily basis. I laid off of them two days in a row now with Hamels and Halladay at great prices in the -120 range because of the RLM that saw their price drop from -140's to that -120 range. That is such a great price for those two pitchers that if they are almost auto plays regardless of their National League opponent. Milwaukee is the best home team in MLB and Philly is making quite a statement. I really hope they lose so I don't feel quite as bad for not playing them....