LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/14/11

Play #1

AZ/LAD under (6)(-115) 1x Locked)

Sorry, no time for wtiteups. Locked this one in last night, but fell asleep on the couch before I could post. Kershaw wants the win and Hudson is pitching his best right now. Both have great advanced stats and both will be motivated for this game because Kershaw wants the cy young and Hudson wants the playoffs and to make cy young contention. Both pitchers have performed great against these lineups and the weather should not factor into this one with only a light breeze expected. Bill (not Tim) Welke is the ump and he us relatively neutral as to totals this year, but with a slight under lean. I expect a low scoring affair in this one and I'm rolking under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Marlins/Braves under (8.5) 1x (Locked)

I was able to get an off market price on this one at 8.5(-110) when the line started moving up and I jumped on it. We have an early getaway game with a hot prospect in Delgado who has never faced this weakened Marlins lineup and Nolasco who is a darling of advanced stats. The wind is blowing across the field and Layne Is the ump. I have this one at 7.6 and it will take a final score of nine to beat us. I like the under here at 8.5 and I'm taking it for 1x. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

Play #2

Marlins/Braves under (8.5) 1x (Locked)

I was able to get an off market price on this one at 8.5(-110) when the line started moving up and I jumped on it. We have an early getaway game with a hot prospect in Delgado who has never faced this weakened Marlins lineup and Nolasco who is a darling of advanced stats. The wind is blowing across the field and Layne Is the ump. I have this one at 7.6 and it will take a final score of nine to beat us. I like the under here at 8.5 and I'm taking it for 1x. Good luck.

Wow -- you got a great number there.

[italianbandit]

Wow -- you got a great number there.

5 dimes still has 8.5.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/14/11

Play #1

AZ/LAD under (6)(-115) 1x Locked)

Sorry, no time for wtiteups. Locked this one in last night, but fell asleep on the couch before I could post. Kershaw wants the win and Hudson is pitching his best right now. Both have great advanced stats and both will be motivated for this game because Kershaw wants the cy young and Hudson wants the playoffs and to make cy young contention. Both pitchers have performed great against these lineups and the weather should not factor into this one with only a light breeze expected. Bill (not Tim) Welke is the ump and he us relatively neutral as to totals this year, but with a slight under lean. I expect a low scoring affair in this one and I'm rolking under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Marlins/Braves under (8.5) 1x (Locked)

I was able to get an off market price on this one at 8.5(-110) when the line started moving up and I jumped on it. We have an early getaway game with a hot prospect in Delgado who has never faced this weakened Marlins lineup and Nolasco who is a darling of advanced stats. The wind is blowing across the field and Layne Is the ump. I have this one at 7.6 and it will take a final score of nine to beat us. I like the under here at 8.5 and I'm taking it for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Phillies/Astros under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Was trying to get 7.5, but the line started to move towards a juiced under and I had to lock it in to preserve even odds. I like this one better at 7.5, but its still playable at 7 for even money. Halladay is due for a dominating performance and Norris is dependable for a quality start. Another early game after a night game which generally favors the under and Rollins is still out of the lineup for philly. I expect an easy Philly win that stays under the posted total. No weather issues and the ump favors the under. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Play #3

Phillies/Astros under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Was trying to get 7.5, but the line started to move towards a juiced under and I had to lock it in to preserve even odds. I like this one better at 7.5, but its still playable at 7 for even money. Halladay is due for a dominating performance and Norris is dependable for a quality start. Another early game after a night game which generally favors the under and Rollins is still out of the lineup for philly. I expect an easy Philly win that stays under the posted total. No weather issues and the ump favors the under. Good luck.

On this one with ya LTA and will be joining you on Kershaw later I am sure. On the other side of Atlanta, over 8. If I can't get the win gonna be rooting for that 8 push and you cash. GL .

[815Sox]

I am on the ATL/FLA under as well. Looking at that Dodgers, Snakes game. I have been on AZ both nights but today I don't feel like I can pick a winner. Hudson (aka Kenny William's shame) and Clayton are good pitchers. Line has dropped to 6 so it may be too late.

[JR007]

He's not betting against the streak, he is betting against the public, because he thinks they are overvaluing the team on a streak.

I've been having some interesting conversations about this topic with my friend Jonah a horse player and actually I'll just let him respond as he is right here. He says: "Unlike separate rolls of the dice, which are completely independent events, the result of one baseball game may have an influence on subsequent games. A handicapper may interpret the events of the first game to determine whether the winning team has an advantage that they may sustain, for instance. Similarly, the handicapper may feel that there could be a psychological advantage to the winning team. Really, these effects would best be shown through historical statistical data, but waiting for that data often also means losing any edge. The term "streak" is probably misleading, because it implies luck, which has nothing to do with it. The point is that consecutive games are not purely independent events. Quantifying the effects of one game on another is another story, and it's probably true that streaks are overemphasized rather than the reverse."

Italian Bandit, thanks to you and Jonah for providing this insightone thing, i have seen with no basis of fact to support it, is if a team wins or loses, to break a streak take the same team to win or lose in the second game, again no numbers, but i have observed this pattern often enough

[815Sox]

He's not betting against the streak, he is betting against the public, because he thinks they are overvaluing the team on a streak.

I've been having some interesting conversations about this topic with my friend Jonah a horse player and actually I'll just let him respond as he is right here. He says: "Unlike separate rolls of the dice, which are completely independent events, the result of one baseball game may have an influence on subsequent games. A handicapper may interpret the events of the first game to determine whether the winning team has an advantage that they may sustain, for instance. Similarly, the handicapper may feel that there could be a psychological advantage to the winning team. Really, these effects would best be shown through historical statistical data, but waiting for that data often also means losing any edge. The term "streak" is probably misleading, because it implies luck, which has nothing to do with it. The point is that consecutive games are not purely independent events. Quantifying the effects of one game on another is another story, and it's probably true that streaks are overemphasized rather than the reverse."

Seems like common sense, but its always interesting to actually write that out and put it on paper. You also look at the effect on certain teams have on others. Sometimes, a team will matchup so well against a team for a year or two that the other team lacks confidence facing them for the next few years. Than once they have some success against them they are fine.

[God1]

Italian Bandit, thanks to you and Jonah for providing this insightone thing, i have seen with no basis of fact to support it, is if a team wins or loses, to break a streak take the same team to win or lose in the second game, again no numbers, but i have observed this pattern often enough

I guess we need people like this in the world to take advantage of? Did you graduate high school?

[Love The Action]

Will have a play on the giants total and trying to decide the best way to play the yankees tonight...back in a bit.

[Redscot]

Nice start to the day my man , I was not happy when I saw I was on the opposite side of the first game.

[GGALLERT]

LAA-OAK U7, looks very tasty...thoughts?

[Love The Action]

Nice start to the day my man , I was not happy when I saw I was on the opposite side of the first game.

Good luck today Red...i saw you almost hit the lottery ticket last night...maybe you'll get it today

[Love The Action]

LAA-OAK U7, looks very tasty...thoughts?

Lean that way, but I have that one at 7 even so I can't really find an edge on that one. Harden wil get the k's, but he will give up the bombs too....good luck if you play it

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/14/11

Play #1

AZ/LAD under (6)(-115) 1x Locked)

Sorry, no time for wtiteups. Locked this one in last night, but fell asleep on the couch before I could post. Kershaw wants the win and Hudson is pitching his best right now. Both have great advanced stats and both will be motivated for this game because Kershaw wants the cy young and Hudson wants the playoffs and to make cy young contention. Both pitchers have performed great against these lineups and the weather should not factor into this one with only a light breeze expected. Bill (not Tim) Welke is the ump and he us relatively neutral as to totals this year, but with a slight under lean. I expect a low scoring affair in this one and I'm rolking under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Marlins/Braves under (8.5) 1x (Locked)

I was able to get an off market price on this one at 8.5(-110) when the line started moving up and I jumped on it. We have an early getaway game with a hot prospect in Delgado who has never faced this weakened Marlins lineup and Nolasco who is a darling of advanced stats. The wind is blowing across the field and Layne Is the ump. I have this one at 7.6 and it will take a final score of nine to beat us. I like the under here at 8.5 and I'm taking it for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Phillies/Astros under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Was trying to get 7.5, but the line started to move towards a juiced under and I had to lock it in to preserve even odds. I like this one better at 7.5, but its still playable at 7 for even money. Halladay is due for a dominating performance and Norris is dependable for a quality start. Another early game after a night game which generally favors the under and Rollins is still out of the lineup for philly. I expect an easy Philly win that stays under the posted total. No weather issues and the ump favors the under. Good luck.

Play #4

Padres/Giants under (5.5)(+105) 1x (Locked)

This one is set at 5.5 for a reason and has only come down since opening despite 85%+ on the over. Lincecum had a high pitch count last game and the wind is blowing out. However, Latos has performed well in sf and the padres lineup is weak today. Another day game after a late night game on getaway day and that generally favors the under. The ump has a strike rate above 63.5% with no historical lean. I think both pitchers perform well and pitch deep into the game, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[JR007]

I guess we need people like this in the world to take advantage of? Did you graduate high school?

Dude: stay in your "elitist utopia''....I have been doing this for close to 40 years...i forgot more than you know..for the record I am a College Graduate...sorry you missed that part of your life...have to wake up real early in the morning to beat me, like 3:00 AM......keep counting sheep, or better still, your gambling losses

[italianbandit]

Nice call on the Houston under, LTA and G1.
Nice start today LTA, you are getting into a good rhythm.

[BubbleTeaJelly]

nice winning day LTA! let's get those ridiculously unlucky lost units back

[ParlayKing]

Glad to see you finally catching the breaks instead of getting beat by them, cheers on the winners.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/14/11

Play #1

AZ/LAD under (6)(-115) 1x Locked)

Sorry, no time for wtiteups. Locked this one in last night, but fell asleep on the couch before I could post. Kershaw wants the win and Hudson is pitching his best right now. Both have great advanced stats and both will be motivated for this game because Kershaw wants the cy young and Hudson wants the playoffs and to make cy young contention. Both pitchers have performed great against these lineups and the weather should not factor into this one with only a light breeze expected. Bill (not Tim) Welke is the ump and he us relatively neutral as to totals this year, but with a slight under lean. I expect a low scoring affair in this one and I'm rolking under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Marlins/Braves under (8.5) 1x (Locked)

I was able to get an off market price on this one at 8.5(-110) when the line started moving up and I jumped on it. We have an early getaway game with a hot prospect in Delgado who has never faced this weakened Marlins lineup and Nolasco who is a darling of advanced stats. The wind is blowing across the field and Layne Is the ump. I have this one at 7.6 and it will take a final score of nine to beat us. I like the under here at 8.5 and I'm taking it for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Phillies/Astros under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Was trying to get 7.5, but the line started to move towards a juiced under and I had to lock it in to preserve even odds. I like this one better at 7.5, but its still playable at 7 for even money. Halladay is due for a dominating performance and Norris is dependable for a quality start. Another early game after a night game which generally favors the under and Rollins is still out of the lineup for philly. I expect an easy Philly win that stays under the posted total. No weather issues and the ump favors the under. Good luck.

Play #4

Padres/Giants under (5.5)(+105) 1x (Locked)

This one is set at 5.5 for a reason and has only come down since opening despite 85%+ on the over. Lincecum had a high pitch count last game and the wind is blowing out. However, Latos has performed well in sf and the padres lineup is weak today. Another day game after a late night game on getaway day and that generally favors the under. The ump has a strike rate above 63.5% with no historical lean. I think both pitchers perform well and pitch deep into the game, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Added 1x to Play #1 for total of 2x AZ/LAD under (6) (1x under (6)(-115) and 1x under (6)(-120))

When I initially locked this in, I was contemplating a 2x play. However, I wanted to wait to see if I could get better than -115 in the morning. It never materialized and more money just started pouring in on the under, so I'm adding now at -120. This is a steep price to pay, but I feel it's worth it here. We have two great pitchers, solid under ump and wind blowing in. The only concern is the hot offenses. However, neither offense has fared well against these pitchers. In small samples, AZ is 16 for 110 against Kershaw and LAD is 6 for 51. I expect this futility to continue. My model has this one at 4.9 and everything in this one screams under including the line movement. I love this play and will roll with the under for 2x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Added 1x to Play #1 for total of 2x AZ/LAD under (6) (1x under (6)(-115) and 1x under (6)(-120))

When I initially locked this in, I was contemplating a 2x play. However, I wanted to wait to see if I could get better than -115 in the morning. It never materialized and more money just started pouring in on the under, so I'm adding now at -120. This is a steep price to pay, but I feel it's worth it here. We have two great pitchers, solid under ump and wind blowing in. The only concern is the hot offenses. However, neither offense has fared well against these pitchers. In small samples, AZ is 16 for 110 against Kershaw and LAD is 6 for 51. I expect this futility to continue. I love this play and will roll with the under for 2x. Good luck.

1st 5 at 3 -135 , that tells you all you need to know about this one. Joining you big here bro, GL

[Love The Action]

1st 5 at 3 -135 , that tells you all you need to know about this one. Joining you big here bro, GL

Both team totals juiced at -125 or more...Good luck Red...I really need this one....

[No coincidences]

BOL went to 5.5.

[Redscot]

Both team totals juiced at -125 or more...Good luck Red...I really need this one....

I think you get it, but regardless, I think you turned the corner today . 2 weeks left in the season and I say you get 10 units out of em .

[Love The Action]

Action Parlay (Not for records win or lose)

Yankees ML/AZ/LAD under

Good luck...pick your own wager amount, but I LOVE this one. A 2x under paired with a team that has won over 63% of its games against lefties in the last two years (over 70% this year). Good luck .

[SilverTongueFox]

LTA would you do it at 5.5 -105? I can't get U6.

[Love The Action]

LTA would you do it at 5.5 -105? I can't get U6.

That's a tough call my friend. My model's getting a full run of value at 6, but only a half run of value at 5.5. I generally like .7 of a run or more variance between my line and the line I take. I really love this play, but you want to have that possibility of a push at 6. I expect a game under 5, but it's your call. Some other options would be to play half your normal wager or just make a smaller wager on the Yanks ML/under 5.5 parlay. I feel both are winners.

[Love The Action]

First WNBA playoff play posted....Good luck in the playoffs!

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/1166737-ltas-nba-wnba-plays-p8.html#post11434401

[SilverTongueFox]

LTA - decided to ride with you on the under even though I could only get U5.5. Bullpen made us sweat alittle but 'preciate the winner.

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap

9/11/11

1 - 2 = -1.15x

9/12/11

1 - 3 = -2.25

9/13/11

2 - 1 = +1x

9/14/11

4 - 0 = +5x

MLB Season 2011

386 - 356 = +21.565x

Good luck on Thursday!

[No coincidences]

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/15/11

Play #1

White Sox/Royals under (9) 1x (Locked)

I expect this one to close at (-115) or more on the under despite a split in overall bets that favors the over. Buehrle and Francis in a battle of the left-handed 88 mph fastballs. These guys are control guys that work quick and get a lot of groundball outs. Buehrle's WAR is 3.3, while Francis is 2.5, so there's no denying these guys are above average starting pitchers. With Buehrle coming off of two straight horrible outtings against Detroit and Cleveland, most will expect the over. However, these two teams highly trend under head to head. Both teams are middle of the road against lefthanded hitting and I don't expect an offensive explosion on Thursday. I have this one at 8.2 and it's going to take a total of 10 to beat us. I don't see this one getting that high and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

MLB 9/15/11

Play #1

White Sox/Royals under (9) 1x (Locked)

I expect this one to close at (-115) or more on the under despite a split in overall bets that favors the over. Buehrle and Francis in a battle of the left-handed 88 mph fastballs. These guys are control guys that work quick and get a lot of groundball outs. Buehrle's WAR is 3.3, while Francis is 2.5, so there's no denying these guys are above average starting pitchers. With Buehrle coming off of two straight horrible outtings against Detroit and Cleveland, most will expect the over. However, these two teams highly trend under head to head. Both teams are middle of the road against lefthanded hitting and I don't expect an offensive explosion on Thursday. I have this one at 8.2 and it's going to take a total of 10 to beat us. I don't see this one getting that high and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Love lefty on lefty crime.

[God1]

Locked in sox/rays over 9.5 -105 and rockies/giants over 8.5 -116, both are now more expensive. Probably still value on the sox over at -113 but already fired in the full bullet

[Redscot]

Great day yesterday LTA , it had to happen sooner or later. Let's keep this momentum going forward.