LTA's MLB Plays

**Redscot** · 09-15-11, 06:39 AM

Originally posted by God1

Locked in sox/rays over 9.5 -105 and rockies/giants over 8.5 -116, both are now more expensive. Probably still value on the sox over at -113 but already fired in the full bullet

Looks like I will be joining you on that Rox over as I can get it at 8 1/2 -110, unfortunately local doesn't have the Sox game up yet. GL

**815Sox** · 09-15-11, 10:25 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 9/15/11

Play #1

White Sox/Royals under (9) 1x (Locked)

I expect this one to close at (-115) or more on the under despite a split in overall bets that favors the over. Buehrle and Francis in a battle of the left-handed 88 mph fastballs. These guys are control guys that work quick and get a lot of groundball outs. Buehrle's WAR is 3.3, while Francis is 2.5, so there's no denying these guys are above average starting pitchers. With Buehrle coming off of two straight horrible outtings against Detroit and Cleveland, most will expect the over. However, these two teams highly trend under head to head. Both teams are middle of the road against lefthanded hitting and I don't expect an offensive explosion on Thursday. I have this one at 8.2 and it's going to take a total of 10 to beat us. I don't see this one getting that high and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

I got on this last night as well. May be one of Mark's last appearances in a Sox uniform too. I'd think they would resign him, but things are going to be turbulent on the South Side this offseason.

**italianbandit** · 09-15-11, 11:13 AM

You guys got some nice prices, Vogelsong has provided me with so much value and profit this year, but I think I missed the boat at -125. I took Colorado over 4.5 for -110. I also like the Cubs +142 for a small play. GL

**miguelj** · 09-15-11, 11:17 AM

redscot have any plays today?

**No coincidences** · 09-15-11, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by God1

Locked in sox/rays over 9.5 -105 and rockies/giants over 8.5 -116, both are now more expensive. Probably still value on the sox over at -113 but already fired in the full bullet

What about at -105, where it's back to right now?

**Love The Action** · 09-15-11, 12:16 PM

Lean Florida and the under in game one....under is probably the safer play but not sure I can trust a rusty kendrick....

**Love The Action** · 09-15-11, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 9/15/11

Play #1

White Sox/Royals under (9) 1x (Locked)

I expect this one to close at (-115) or more on the under despite a split in overall bets that favors the over. Buehrle and Francis in a battle of the left-handed 88 mph fastballs. These guys are control guys that work quick and get a lot of groundball outs. Buehrle's WAR is 3.3, while Francis is 2.5, so there's no denying these guys are above average starting pitchers. With Buehrle coming off of two straight horrible outtings against Detroit and Cleveland, most will expect the over. However, these two teams highly trend under head to head. Both teams are middle of the road against lefthanded hitting and I don't expect an offensive explosion on Thursday. I have this one at 8.2 and it's going to take a total of 10 to beat us. I don't see this one getting that high and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Marlins/Phillies under (8.5)(-117) 1x (Locked)

Sanchez should pitch well and Kendrick is well rested. Both lineups are weak today and wind is blowing in. It will take a total of 9 to lose this one and I don't see it. Kendrick has a nice history against this team and should be motivated. As long as he throws strikes, the under should cash. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 09-15-11, 05:47 PM

Cash the philly under.

KC/Sox game down to 8.5, with juice on the under so we killed the closer there.

Leaning Cle/Tex over and TB/Bos over, much like the rest of the world....we'll see. Bol tonight.

**Love The Action** · 09-15-11, 05:59 PM

Laying off the boston over...gl

**BetGrinder** · 09-15-11, 06:09 PM

u r on a roll 5-0 since yesterday!

very nice work LTA!

**Love The Action** · 09-15-11, 07:06 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 9/15/11

Play #1

White Sox/Royals under (9) 1x (Locked)

I expect this one to close at (-115) or more on the under despite a split in overall bets that favors the over. Buehrle and Francis in a battle of the left-handed 88 mph fastballs. These guys are control guys that work quick and get a lot of groundball outs. Buehrle's WAR is 3.3, while Francis is 2.5, so there's no denying these guys are above average starting pitchers. With Buehrle coming off of two straight horrible outtings against Detroit and Cleveland, most will expect the over. However, these two teams highly trend under head to head. Both teams are middle of the road against lefthanded hitting and I don't expect an offensive explosion on Thursday. I have this one at 8.2 and it's going to take a total of 10 to beat us. I don't see this one getting that high and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Marlins/Phillies under (8.5)(-117) 1x (Locked) (GM 1)

Sanchez should pitch well and Kendrick is well rested. Both lineups are weak today and wind is blowing in. It will take a total of 9 to lose this one and I don't see it. Kendrick has a nice history against this team and should be motivated. As long as he throws strikes, the under should cash. Good luck.

Card is final. I missed out on the line movement on the Rangers over because I was driving home from work. My only two options to bet this game are 10 or 9.5 (-130) and that is a bad bet IMO.

Finalizing WNBA card and making a couple NCAAF plays tonight. Will also be capping MLB after dinner with the family. Good luck tonight. Let's get this White Sox under!

**Love The Action** · 09-15-11, 07:10 PM

Todd Tichenor is the ump in the White Sox game

**God1** · 09-15-11, 07:17 PM

I have no idea what was going on with the total in the reds/cubs today but I pounded over 8 -101 when it got there. Wells/Bailey LOWER than Dempster/Leake? I'll take the other side of that

**ParlayKing** · 09-15-11, 07:17 PM

Any thoughts on the U in the SF/COL game? i really like that total at 8.5

**God1** · 09-15-11, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

What about at -105, where it's back to right now?

What? If there's value at -113 there's obviously at -105. Last line I saw near close was -116. I couldn't resist putting another bet on the over after the 1st inning looking good

massive bet on the pirates tonight

**No coincidences** · 09-15-11, 08:02 PM

Originally posted by God1

What? If there's value at -113 there's obviously at -105. Last line I saw near close was -116. I couldn't resist putting another bet on the over after the 1st inning looking good

massive bet on the pirates tonight

You live bet more after the first inning? Based on what?

**God1** · 09-15-11, 08:05 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

You live bet more after the first inning? Based on what?

Based on regretting not betting more on it before the game started

**God1** · 09-15-11, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Looks like I will be joining you on that Rox over as I can get it at 8 1/2 -110, unfortunately local doesn't have the Sox game up yet. GL

cake

**No coincidences** · 09-15-11, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by God1

Based on regretting not betting more on it before the game started

I see. Good luck.

I'm on the SF/COL over, so hopefully that cashes for both of us.

**ParlayKing** · 09-15-11, 08:08 PM

Fml lol

**Redscot** · 09-15-11, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by God1

I have no idea what was going on with the total in the reds/cubs today but I pounded over 8 -101 when it got there. Wells/Bailey LOWER than Dempster/Leake? I'll take the other side of that

I got jobbed on that total, sucked in on the under.. I too wonder what that was all about

**God1** · 09-15-11, 09:42 PM

grand slam by the picther i'll take it

**Love The Action** · 09-15-11, 10:52 PM

MLB Recap 9/15/11

1 - 0 - 1 = +1x

MLB Season 2011

387 - 356 = +22.565x

Bullpens paying me back a bit today

**815Sox** · 09-15-11, 11:35 PM

Damn, Buehrle just did not have it today. Thankfully the Sox bullpen was able to limit the damage. The Sox did that stupid 6 man rotation, so I figure Mark wouldn't be as fatigued That pen has been so good all year long, what could have been... sigh. Thankfully, I was also on the TB/Bos and Cle/Texas overs, and I got lucky on those.

**Love The Action** · 09-15-11, 11:37 PM

Originally posted by God1

grand slam by the picther i'll take it

Good night if the Bucs can hang on....

**Love The Action** · 09-15-11, 11:39 PM

Originally posted by 815Sox

Damn, Buehrle just did not have it today. Thankfully the Sox bullpen was able to limit the damage. The Sox did that stupid 6 man rotation, so I figure Mark wouldn't be as fatigued That pen has been so good all year long, what could have been... sigh. Thankfully, I was also on the TB/Bos and Cle/Texas overs, and I got lucky on those.

Yeah...bit suprised. I actually watched the first 5 innings or so. He wasn't hitting his spots, walking the leadoff hitter, just the sort of things he usually does not do which is why he is generally successful. That was not a Buehrle-like performance...I'll take the push though.

Those overs were nailbiters...glad you cashed.

**815Sox** · 09-15-11, 11:46 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Yeah...bit suprised. I actually watched the first 5 innings or so. He wasn't hitting his spots, walking the leadoff hitter, just the sort of things he usually does not do which is why he is generally successful. That was not a Buehrle-like performance...I'll take the push though.

Those overs were nailbiters...glad you cashed.

I cannot even watch my Sox nowadays. This was a very frustration year for us. I just got lucky on the other two, thankfully I went to visit the folks tonight so I didn't know the scores until I got home.

**fitguy67** · 09-16-11, 12:39 AM

nice little run u'v got going on the unders...

**Love The Action** · 09-16-11, 12:44 AM

MLB 9/16/11

Play #1

Giants ML (-123) 1x (Locked)

We've been fading the Giants successfully here and there, but on Friday I am going to back them. I have this ten full cents more expensive at -133 and I'm jumping on the Giants now before it gets to that number. I generally do not play against a pitcher that is unfamiliar to the team I'm backing, but in this case I don't think it makes much of a difference. I'm backing Baumgarner and I'm not worrying about whether this is a trap number or his history at Coors. Baumgarner's a top 10 MLB guy going against a banged up lineup with Helton or Tulo and we're getting a great price to boot. I am confident this one closes in the -130 range, so I'm jumping on board now for -123. Good luck .

**God1** · 09-16-11, 12:50 AM

I think you're getting a very good price, though I don't know if I trust my pricing of the rockies right now based on where they've been getting open at recently. It takes an extraordinary situation for me to pull the trigger on road favorites

**Love The Action** · 09-16-11, 01:01 AM

Originally posted by God1

I think you're getting a very good price, though I don't know if I trust my pricing of the rockies right now based on where they've been getting open at recently. It takes an extraordinary situation for me to pull the trigger on road favorites

It's like anything else, you just need to pick your spots.

**Love The Action** · 09-16-11, 01:02 AM

Off to bed...eyeing a few totals but I think we'll get better numbers tomorrow morning.

I have a ton of work to do on NCAAF for this weekend and I missed the move on some games that I was eyeing because neither of my locals opened up their totals until tonight. Nevertheless, I will have my NCAAF card up by tomorrow.

I have four NFL plays that were posted on Tuesday, that are all beating the current number by one point or more.

Not liking much in the WNBA tomorrow, but we'll see.

Gearing up for a big weekend. Good luck

**No coincidences** · 09-16-11, 01:10 AM

Originally posted by God1

It takes an extraordinary situation for me to pull the trigger on road favorites

I'm surprised you're saying this for baseball.

I would agree with football and/or basketball, but it doesn't seem to be as much of a problem to find the road winners in baseball where you don't have to worry about point spreads.

**italianbandit** · 09-16-11, 01:53 AM

I like the Giants at this price.

**Love The Action** · 09-16-11, 07:49 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 9/16/11

Play #1

Giants ML (-123) 1x (Locked)

We've been fading the Giants successfully here and there, but on Friday I am going to back them. I have this ten full cents more expensive at -133 and I'm jumping on the Giants now before it gets to that number. I generally do not play against a pitcher that is unfamiliar to the team I'm backing, but in this case I don't think it makes much of a difference. I'm backing Baumgarner and I'm not worrying about whether this is a trap number or his history at Coors. Baumgarner's a top 10 MLB guy going against a banged up lineup with Helton or Tulo and we're getting a great price to boot. I am confident this one closes in the -130 range, so I'm jumping on board now for -123. Good luck .

Play #2

Indians/Twins under (8.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

A bit expensive, but I suspect this one goes to 8 soon. Jiminez has found his groove and Slowey can be counted on for a quality start. Both lineups are ailing and missing their biggest hitters. The wind is expected to be blowing in and I have this one at 7.65. I'll take a shot at the under for 1x. Good luck.