LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

Pinny and MBook just dropped their TB/Boston game to 8

[Love The Action]

My model has the Angels/Balty total at 8.1 and after capping that game I really like the under. Wish I would have gotten to that one last night so I could have gotten 9. Hard to take it at 8.5. That's one I will be eyeing all day.

[815Sox]

Thanks for the picks. I also put a small bet on the Indians last night, got them as dogs. Gomez has struggled against the Twins, but he has been very good otherwise.

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the picks. I also put a small bet on the Indians last night, got them as dogs. Gomez has struggled against the Twins, but he has been very good otherwise.

Nice job getting a good price with Cleveland. Gotta feel good getting spotted a 2 run lead with Gomez pitching well recently. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Colon shitting his pants giving up 4 runs in the second inning...blue jays hitting rockets with 0-2 counts...fat fukking azzhole

[815Sox]

Colon shitting his pants giving up 4 runs in the second inning...blue jays hitting rockets with 0-2 counts...fat fukking azzhole

That operation he got in the offense is looking more and more suspicious. He has certainly fizzled

[God1]

rockies over 9.5 +108 get it before its too late. threw a big bet on the strasburg under last night got it at the open 7.5 -113

1st 5 over on the rockies is the better bet probably, 5 -113

[God1]

brewers tomorrow under 9 -110 lock it up immediately

[God1]

Anyone care to guess how masterson/pavano can be opened at under 8.5 +104 when swarzak/gomez today opened at under 8.5 -102 and closed at under 8.5 -113

[Love The Action]

Wow, that Boston under went all the way down to 7.5(+100) at close despite 70% of all bets on the over. That's solid. Hopefully, we can cash after TB comes out with a quick 2 runs. Lester needs to get his act together.

I'm back to MLB now for the late games after working on NFL/NCAAF. I have about 5 or 6 plays already posted for each.

Good luck!

[Love The Action]

rockies over 9.5 +108 get it before its too late. threw a big bet on the strasburg under last night got it at the open 7.5 -113

1st 5 over on the rockies is the better bet probably, 5 -113

I'm not sold on the Marlins/Nats under. Strasburg's only going to pitch 5 innings and then the Nats bullpen comes into play. I like Volstad tonight and thought you would have been all over him and the Marlins ML +200 or more. They are wayyyy underpriced in this one because of the Strasburg effect on bettors. I have a strong lean on the Marlins. My model has this one at +170, with more than 30 cents of value.

With that said, it's only a lean for me at this point and I still have to look into that one a little more.

As far as the Rockies over, I'm not sure about that one on multiple levels. From a pricing standpoint, I would rather wait it out and try to get 9 than buy in now at 9.5, albeit at a solid plus number. Unless you have enough info on Surkamp and Pomeranz to have this projected over 10.5. To me, both have solid advanced stats in minor league ball with Pomeranz having great strikeout numbers. Too many unknowns for me when two raw rookies face off and it's hard to project an edge. Good luck though, I hope you cash.

[Love The Action]

brewers tomorrow under 9 -110 lock it up immediately

Where are you seeing -110? I see -115 pretty much for all books that opened early.

On first glance, that does look about a half run too high. I have not run the numbers yet so I really can't say too much on that one yet.

[Love The Action]

Anyone care to guess how masterson/pavano can be opened at under 8.5 +104 when swarzak/gomez today opened at under 8.5 -102 and closed at under 8.5 -113

Very odd...

[No coincidences]

I'm not sold on the Marlins/Nats under. Strasburg's only going to pitch 5 innings and then the Nats bullpen comes into play. I like Volstad tonight and thought you would have been all over him and the Marlins ML +200 or more. They are wayyyy underpriced in this one because of the Strasburg effect on bettors. I have a strong lean on the Marlins. My model has this one at +170, with more than 30 cents of value.

With that said, it's only a lean for me at this point and I still have to look into that one a little more.

As far as the Rockies over, I'm not sure about that one on multiple levels. From a pricing standpoint, I would rather wait it out and try to get 9 than buy in now at 9.5, albeit at a solid plus number. Unless you have enough info on Surkamp and Pomeranz to have this projected over 10.5. To me, both have solid advanced stats in minor league ball with Pomeranz having great strikeout numbers. Too many unknowns for me when two raw rookies face off and it's hard to project an edge. Good luck though, I hope you cash.

Good post. Public is pounding the WAS under too. My guess is the sharps who gobbled it up at 7.5 will cash when it lands on 7.

No opinion on the SF/COL over, but GL God.

[italianbandit]

That Phillies line is interesting as I'm seeing a -135 out there.

[God1]

Where are you seeing -110? I see -115 pretty much for all books that opened early.

On first glance, that does look about a half run too high. I have not run the numbers yet so I really can't say too much on that one yet.

-110 is at pinnacle

[God1]

I'm not sold on the Marlins/Nats under. Strasburg's only going to pitch 5 innings and then the Nats bullpen comes into play. I like Volstad tonight and thought you would have been all over him and the Marlins ML +200 or more. They are wayyyy underpriced in this one because of the Strasburg effect on bettors. I have a strong lean on the Marlins. My model has this one at +170, with more than 30 cents of value.

There isn't a strasburg effect present at least in this game. 40% of the bets are on the marlins, which has not happened even once with this season on a -200 favorite that I can remember, not even close. I've been debating the marlins all day still am undecided

As far as the Rockies over, I'm not sure about that one on multiple levels. From a pricing standpoint, I would rather wait it out and try to get 9 than buy in now at 9.5, albeit at a solid plus number. Unless you have enough info on Surkamp and Pomeranz to have this projected over 10.5. To me, both have solid advanced stats in minor league ball with Pomeranz having great strikeout numbers. Too many unknowns for me when two raw rookies face off and it's hard to project an edge. Good luck though, I hope you cash.

Every rookie pitcher is going to have had great advanced stats in minor league ball. I like the fact that surkamp and pomeranz both have ERAs that make them look better than they are

[No coincidences]

Every rookie pitcher is going to have had great advanced stats in minor league ball. I like the fact that surkamp and pomeranz both have ERAs that make them look better than they are

Have you seen both of them pitch?

[No coincidences]

Do you guys like the Cardinals or O's at all? And what's up with the White Sox being +122 with Stewart throwing?

[God1]

still waiting on pinnacle to open their MLs but based on what others have I'll be putting a full bet on the orioles. Weaver's been losing velocity on his fastball recently

[God1]

Have you seen both of them pitch?

Neither nor would it make any difference if I had

[No coincidences]

Neither nor would it make any difference if I had

It doesn't matter that you've never seen them pitch?

[Love The Action]

Boston will end up missing the playoffs or bowing out early if Lester can't get it together. He needs to be their "stopper" and he's piching pathetically right now. I expected more out of him today and so did sharp money buying that total all the way down to 7.5 at Pinny.

Anyway, had to work on NCAAF for a bit and getting back to MLB now. Just added another NCAAF pick with shortened writeups posted. http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...l#post11475071

Good luck.

[God1]

It doesn't matter that you've never seen them pitch?

Of course not why would it?

[Love The Action]

It doesn't matter that you've never seen them pitch?

I don't think it matters to see a guy pitch. Baseball is one of the only sports where the advanced stats tell you everything you need to know.

[italianbandit]

At + money, I think that Colorado is a winner in the long run. Giants bullpen has been regressing for a while, Surkamp is from my research is at best a 4th starter in an MLB rotation. No Coin, I don't like the Cards and actually lean Phillies, but will probably lay off.

[No coincidences]

At + money, I think that Colorado is a winner in the long run. Giants bullpen has been regressing for a while, Surkamp is from my research is at best a 4th starter in an MLB rotation. No Coin, I don't like the Cards and actually lean Phillies, but will probably lay off.

Thanks. I'm not doing much MLB capping today -- big college football day.

[italianbandit]

No Coin, God can see all, no need to watch rookies pitch. He watches woman in Latvia bath.

[No coincidences]

Boston will end up missing the playoffs or bowing out early if Lester can't get it together. He needs to be their "stopper" and he's piching pathetically right now. I expected more out of him today and so did sharp money buying that total all the way down to 7.5 at Pinny.

Red Sox and their fans have kind of taken that "oh well we'll get there eventually" attitude to making the playoffs. I hope they miss out altogether.

[italianbandit]

Thanks. I'm not doing much MLB capping today -- big college football day.

Good luck with your season. I just do baseball and poker.

[God1]

Good post. Public is pounding the WAS under too. My guess is the sharps who gobbled it up at 7.5 will cash when it lands on 7.

public is on the over by a decent margin, 62%

[No coincidences]

public is on the over by a decent margin, 62%

I'm getting 62% on the under.

[Love The Action]

MLB 9/17/11

Play #1

Mets/Braves under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

TB/Boston under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Yanks/Blue Jays under (9)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Angels/Orioles under (8.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I missed out on the 9 and could have saved a few cents under 8.5, but I'm going to take a shot here. My model has it at 8.1, so we don't have a ton of value here, but it's going to take a score of 9 to beat us so I still like it. Britton is easily the Orioles best starter with a WAR of 2.5 and he has never faced anyone on the Angels before. Santana is coming off a rought start against the Yanks, but should be fresh after only throwing 99 pitches. The wind is blowing directly in at 10 mph and the ump has a high strike rate around 63.5%. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[God1]

and of course pinnacle opens the orioles under every other book. still a bargain at +184

edit: very quickly up to 189. there's alot looking good tomorrow

[815Sox]

Do you guys like the Cardinals or O's at all? And what's up with the White Sox being +122 with Stewart throwing?

Stewart has been up and down. My buddy who is really good at projecting players (doesn't gamble, its just his hobby) thinks that Stewart is never going to be an established starter. I think his only hope is to become a Don Cooper project. Ozzie usually doesn't put out the best lineup in the third game and there is a faction of Sox fans that think he is playing the high contract low production (though Rios is starting to hit) players to make a point about Kenny.