LTA's MLB Plays

[Luv2Play2]

and if they win

lol nothing but chalk. when will people learn that there's no money in betting unders when two studs are on the mound?

will you come back and say, there still is no $$$ to be made?

[italianbandit]

will you come back and say, there still is no $$$ to be made?

What are you trying to say?

[Luv2Play2]

it sounds like he is saying you cant make $$ betting unders wth 2 aces on the mound ?

[God1]

it sounds like he is saying you cant make $$ betting unders wth 2 aces on the mound ?

that's exactly what i'm saying

[JR007]

lol nothing but chalk. when will people learn that there's no money in betting unders when two studs are on the mound? if the tb/toronto total was under 7 +105 you'd probably still say under, if the nationals/reds was under 7.5 -110 you'd still say under. And that's because these totals moving 10-15 cents doesn't change your reason for betting the under and that's why you will lose over the long run betting like this. You just can't beat totals by just looking at pitching seeing its really good and "picking" under

different reasons, bullpen regression, fatigue,hot weather, more variance, ..... again, think this will
change come playoff time

[God1]

different reasons, bullpen regression, fatigue,hot weather, more variance, ..... again, think this will
change come playoff time

Try and put this into something coherent

[Love The Action]

lol nothing but chalk. when will people learn that there's no money in betting unders when two studs are on the mound? if the tb/toronto total was under 7 +105 you'd probably still say under, if the nationals/reds was under 7.5 -110 you'd still say under. And that's because these totals moving 10-15 cents doesn't change your reason for betting the under and that's why you will lose over the long run betting like this. You just can't beat totals by just looking at pitching seeing its really good and "picking" under

What a ridiculous, false and conclusory statement. I would expect better from you

I won't get into a detailed response right now as the wife is breathing down my neck to get out of the house. However, I will say that I am beating each and every closer as it currently stands and that is the only thing we can control in this business. Other than that, I have no need to defend my model, picks or long-term record.

Good luck

[Love The Action]

Good Luck

Going strong today LTA, good luck

Good luck today, gentlemen

[Love The Action]

OK, I am off for the day to a family party. I have a few more plays I am considering that I may post from my phone if I have time and the line moves as expected.


Good luck to everyone on their plays today

[God1]

What a ridiculous, false and conclusory statement. I would expect better from you

I won't get into a detailed response right now as the wife is breathing down my neck to get out of the house. However, I will say that I am beating each and every closer as it currently stands and that is the only thing we can control in this business. Other than that, I have no need to defend my model, picks or long-term record.

Good luck

If you are beating closers thats all that counts

[JR007]

Try and put this into something coherent

here you go, it is called variance, which is uncappable

[God1]

here you go, it is called variance, which is uncappable

variance isn't relevant to the true probability of a game outcome so I have no idea why you would make such a statement

[Donnie Brasco]

Damn LTA u arent even close lately, these games are sailing over.

[God1]

LOL

[freshguy222]

LTA, i love reading your writeups but you got to increase the priority of batting in your model since when you dont have an ace on the mound batting becomes more and more important also because of the bullpen which has to come in earlier then and hot teams will crush them
since most of your plays are based upon starting pitching your plays are often very public plays as well and very expensive which you usually dont mention

[Pick'nParlays]

lol nothing but chalk. when will people learn that there's no money in betting unders when two studs are on the mound? if the tb/toronto total was under 7 +105 you'd probably still say under, if the nationals/reds was under 7.5 -110 you'd still say under. And that's because these totals moving 10-15 cents doesn't change your reason for betting the under and that's why you will lose over the long run betting like this. You just can't beat totals by just looking at pitching seeing its really good and "picking" under

.
i love to pay the juice and pair it into a two team parlay. I have had documented success this way. I realize not everyone will but the way I manage my roll allows this type of system to stay in the black. Your point is correct.

[God1]

.
i love to pay the juice and pair it into a two team parlay. I have had documented success this way. I realize not everyone will but the way I manage my roll allows this type of system to stay in the black. Your point is correct.

it seems like 90% of sbr is parlaying chalk and is a lifetime winner

[freshguy222]

those bullpen meltdowns just dont wanna stop!freakin unbelievable!

[God1]

those bullpen meltdowns just dont wanna stop!freakin unbelievable!

unders with two studs pitching=burning money. lesson learned kids

unless of course you're consistently beating true closes

[fly fisher]

unders with two studs pitching=burning money. lesson learned kids

unless of course you're consistently beating true closes

Soo.....share some of that knowledge. Seems like you really want to say something to us, but you seem to be really holding back...LTA has been great, if you have some good info to add please do.

[God1]

How is the giants/cubs game not even a half run higher than giants/astros today? Based on the astros/giants close the under is only 15 cents cheaper. Cubs have a significantly better offense, wells is significantly worse than norris...lincecum is better than cain but not by alot. Just has to be a market anticipating under move on a lincecum game but this seems off by more than just the few cents that would add. And they blew it horribly on the under on today's game opening at under 6.5 +105

[God1]

Soo.....share some of that knowledge. Seems like you really want to say something to us, but you seem to be really holding back...LTA has been great, if you have some good info to add please do.

here's your info: betting unders when two studs are pitching is losing money. betting overs when gascans are pitching is losing money

[fly fisher]

here's your info: betting unders when two studs are pitching is losing money. betting overs when gascans are pitching is losing money

I was hoping for a little more insight, but you responded.

[God1]

I was hoping for a little more insight, but you responded.

make a simple rule: never bet what everyone else is betting or what side you think everyone else is betting. never bet unders when halladay is pitching or the yankees at home or monster favorites or overs on teams where both pitchers have high ERAs, those are just some examples. that will save you alot of money

the simple explanation is that sports betting is just like any other market. when the majority of the participants crowd into the same trade, there's no value left and likely to be negative value

the bottom line is that if you don't have a thoroughly back-tested model or a sophisticated method for anticipating line movement, you will lose to the vig over the long run. you can minimize your losses by being disciplined and staying away from the big public sides of games and totals

[JR007]

make a simple rule: never bet what everyone else is betting or what side you think everyone else is betting. never bet unders when halladay is pitching or the yankees at home or monster favorites or overs on teams where both pitchers have high ERAs, those are just some examples. that will save you alot of money

the simple explanation is that sports betting is just like any other market. when the majority of the participants crowd into the same trade, there's no value left and likely to be negative value

the bottom line is that if you don't have a thoroughly back-tested model or a sophisticated method for anticipating line movement, you will lose to the vig over the long run. you can minimize your losses by being disciplined and staying away from the big public sides of games and totals

ok...but isn't a MOS (margin of safety) used by by people who use models, is that not to account for variance ??...I do not model, so I do not really know....

[Love The Action]

Just got back from the family party to all of this BS...hilarious...

Basic fact of sports -- whether you are investing in them or playing them -- everyone loves you when you win and hates you when you lose. I get it.

However, the late games are not over yet, so I don't see why everyone is getting their panties in a bunch. At least let the full card play out before you judge. Regardless, negative comments do not affect me because I will end up profitable at the end of the season just like I always since I started this full time last year (except for NFL last season where I ended up losing about 5x).

I mean, we won the KC/Cleveland under very easily. Plus, the undisputed bottom line is that those losing plays on the Cincy under and TB under were +EV plays, at prices which beat the closer. In the Cincy I bought at -110 and the market closed around -120 and in the TB game I bought at -115 and the market closed around -120 (according to my local market, which is my "true" market, both plays closed at -125 and I killed those closers). Both plays had a one run cushion in the 9th inning and lost. When you are on an under and have a one run cushion in the 9th inning, your odds of winning exceed 70% which make them both +EV plays. They were losers, but they were good plays for me and that cannot be disputed because (1) I beat the closer and (2) they were +EV with high odds of cashing late in the game. As investors, beating the closer and making +EV bets are the only things we can control and just have to let the players play the games.

I mean, I have said since day one that I am not some tout trying to get followers. I really don't care if you guys tail, fade or whatever. I have nothing to prove, I'm just trying to help out. I never made any claims to be a 60% capper. I, and my models, provide long term winners in the 53% - 55% range. Granted, I am in the 52% range right now in MLB, but it's been a frustrating couple months after starting off hot but we still have over at least 150 more plays to make this year in the regular season, plus the playoffs. In the last three weeks, I have lost a ton of +EV plays in the last two innings. If half of those plays cashed, we would not even be having this discussion. There is plenty of time to increase my already solid profit and that is exactly what I intend to do. I have two goals with my model and my capping: (1) get the best price/beat closers and (2) win some money.

That's what I do on a consistent basis over the long term and I question whether some of you who commented negatively can say the same.

[JR007]

Hey God 1, you are a "smart dude"...explain this to me ...according to the killer sports database, the total of 6.5 has a record of 106 overs and 152 unders..so on 100.00 wagered.....would have lost.-6380 on the over and won +3770 ON THE UNDER
ROI of -22%/+ 13%???.......your opinion does not seem in tandem.....with this database

[God1]

ok...but isn't a MOS (margin of safety) used by by people who use models, is that not to account for variance ??...I do not model, so I do not really know....

If by margin of safety you are referring to, for some people, the defined gap that has to be present above the book's offering line in order to pull the trigger then yes it has to do with variance. for example, some people might not bet without at least a 1% difference between the books offering probability and their own modeled probability. that would be to further assure they are making a profitable bet as no model is perfect and the closer you get to a 0% difference in model and the book line, obviously the more variance and less dependable your edge would be. This is what you are referring to I assume?

Let's assume team A beats B 70% of the time on average. If team A will always win 7 times in a row and lose 3 times in a row, your variance will be high but return will be the same. As the return would be the same but variance lower if the winning and losing was more "spread out". In the end the ROI of the bet and thus expected outcome does not change

[Love The Action]

Damn LTA u arent even close lately, these games are sailing over.

Don't be an ignorant clown.

[homosayswhat]

LTA...

What if two trains leave at the same time. in one train the conductor is drinking Mikes Lemonade and in the other, Mountain Dew...

With a light breeze from the west....what train gets there the fastest...

i mean..these folks are really putting you to the test....just thought I would chip in....hahaha

[Love The Action]

LTA, i love reading your writeups but you got to increase the priority of batting in your model since when you dont have an ace on the mound batting becomes more and more important also because of the bullpen which has to come in earlier then and hot teams will crush them
since most of your plays are based upon starting pitching your plays are often very public plays as well and very expensive which you usually dont mention

That is a ridiculous, absurd comment. Ofcourse I and my model take "batting" into account and I mention that on a daily basis in my writeups.

Second, my plays are about 50/50 public v non-public plays when it comes to totals and over 70% dogs when it comes to ML plays and the other 30% are cheap favorites in the -120 range. Therefore, your comments could not be more wrong. Please do not be ignorant, it makes you look bad. Thanks.

[Redscot]

No need to justify yourself my man. I have been around a good while, this is a tough business, all you can do is do your homework and try to beat the line/get value. You do that consistently . I got an eye for the game, but have learned a lot about the wagering side of it from you and a few other cats around these boards, (God1 interestingly enough as well, although he acts the prick).

Appreciate your efforts as always LTA, you put in your work and do it with great discipline. Whenever you get eyes on ya, it brings hate. Take it as flattery bro.

[Love The Action]

unders with two studs pitching=burning money. lesson learned kids

unless of course you're consistently beating true closes

I make plays based on best value according to my model and best price available. On a daily basis, I make and post plays between 12 midnight and 6 am when the best value is available. On over 65% of those plays, I beat the closer because of mine and my model's ability to accurately predict line movement. That cannot be disputed. Just check in on my thread and you will see that is true.

[Love The Action]

LTA...

What if two trains leave at the same time. in one train the conductor is drinking Mikes Lemonade and in the other, Mountain Dew...

With a light breeze from the west....what train gets there the fastest...

i mean..these folks are really putting you to the test....just thought I would chip in....hahaha

Good luck with your plays

[shortdog]

u dont have to explain to any Lta..Just keep doing your thing