LTA's MLB Plays

[God1]

Play #2

White Sox ML (-105) 1x (Locked)

No need for a big writeup here, the Mariners are the worst team in baseball against lefties both hitting and record wise and Danks is pitching well right now for a team that must continue to win to keep up with the Tigers in the playoff race. Pineda has never approached these many innings and is getting tired. Plus, the Sox already faced Pineda so there is no unfamiliarity factor working in his favor. I like the Sox to win tonight and I'm backing them for 1x. Good luck.

Be careful of using a team's season stats against lefties as it is not an accurate representation by any means. There are nearly 200 ABs against lefties for seattle this year by guys hitting below .160 that are no longer on the lineup. That number accounts for about 15% of all their ABs vs lefties.

Additionally, you have guys who are now in the lineup like carp and casper wells that do better against lefties but have seen a tiny percentage of the team's ABs against lefties

[shocktopme]

.

LTA...trying to get different approaches on Royals/Tribe over 8.5........any thoughts on this one??

[Love The Action]

Just took a break from Saturday's card to preview Sunday's card and there are four really good looking plays. I can't wait to run them through my model and look at them in-depth. Possible 1.5x plays or more for each of them....

[God1]

Just took a break from Saturday's card to preview Sunday's card and there are four really good looking plays. I can't wait to run them through my model and look at them in-depth. Possible 1.5x plays or more for each of them....

Lines aren't even out yet how can you know how good a play is without a line???

[blackeyeshamus]

Just took a break from Saturday's card to preview Sunday's card and there are four really good looking plays. I can't wait to run them through my model and look at them in-depth. Possible 1.5x plays or more for each of them....

keep up the great work, LTA. your efforts right now are greatly appreciated. thank you for your leads.

[Love The Action]

Be careful of using a team's season stats against lefties as it is not an accurate representation by any means. There are nearly 200 ABs against lefties for seattle this year by guys hitting below .160 that are no longer on the lineup. That number accounts for about 15% of all their ABs vs lefties.

Additionally, you have guys who are now in the lineup like carp and casper wells that do better against lefties but have seen a tiny percentage of the team's ABs against lefties

In a separate post above I mentioned Wells and some of the other newer Seattle hitters and how their stats do not affect the Mariner's overall stats against lefties. Plus, I agree with you that season team stats are not something you want to weight heavily on a day to day basis.

With that said, however, my model really likes Danks and the Sox in this game and I look at a tiring Pineda playing for an unmotivated team (outside of the youngsters that don't know any better) against a motivated team (despite the Dunn's and Rios' of the world) and I expect the Sox to win. I have to roll with my model on this one and support Danks in a spot he should excel. I recognize the Carps and Wells of the world, however, I still think the Sox get it done. Plus, even though team stats are not controlling, there are certain situations where they should be given a bit more credence. If you look at teams like the Orioles and Mariners who are unsuccessful against lefties year after year and teams like the Yanks who are very successful against lefties year after year, then in those rare circumstances with those long term records, you can give seasonal team stats a little more weight (in my opinion).

[Love The Action]

Lines aren't even out yet how can you know how good a play is without a line???

I said "possible plays" that I liked based on some initial matchups, with "possible" obviously referring to a dependency on available price as compared to what I get after running them through my model.

[shadow13]

vegasinsider shows huge line movement favoriting brewers ,looks like a good play even with a lot of juice,any thoughts?

[showtiime]

LTA you playing the under in sea/cws?

[Love The Action]

Action Parlay (Not for records win or lose)

Tigers ML/Cardinals ML 0.35x to win 0.40x

Sorry about the late post...had to cut the grass...I never pay someone else for something I can do myself.

[Love The Action]

LTA...trying to get different approaches on Royals/Tribe over 8.5........any thoughts on this one??

I have no lean on this one. I actually like Duffy -- I have not invested in him yet -- but I followed his progress. Obviously, he has not done that well. Carmona has the ability to succeed, but he too has had some missteps. I think both lineups are a bit banged up and the line has not shot up to 9 despite this being the biggest public play on the board. I just don't see an edge in this one. Good luck with whatever you choose.

[Love The Action]

LTA you playing the under in sea/cws?

Still in consideration mode.

[BubbleTeaJelly]

Action Parlay (Not for records win or lose)

Tigers ML/Cardinals ML 0.35x to win 0.40x

Sorry about the late post...had to cut the grass...I never pay someone else for something I can do myself.

and that's why you're a rich man! thanks for the picks!

[BiffTFinancial]

Just took a break from Saturday's card to preview Sunday's card and there are four really good looking plays. I can't wait to run them through my model and look at them in-depth. Possible 1.5x plays or more for each of them....

sight unseen, i'm looking forward to seeing what these are...BOL, LTA.

[God1]

vegasinsider shows huge line movement favoriting brewers ,looks like a good play even with a lot of juice,any thoughts?

Cubs are obviously a tremendous play on paper but the books are pricing in a good amount extra right now across baseball for the teams that are in contention vs out of it and the brewers are getting extra juice at home. Without those factors the true line should be somewhere around -155. Whether you believe the books are correctly pricing in those factors should decide if you bet. Obviously there is dead zero value on the brewers

[Love The Action]

Cubs are obviously a tremendous play on paper but the books are pricing in a good amount extra right now across baseball for the teams that are in contention vs out of it and the brewers are getting extra juice at home. Without those factors the true line should be somewhere around -155. Whether you believe the books are correctly pricing in those factors should decide if you bet. Obviously there is dead zero value on the brewers

I have brewers at -169. More than -155, but still value on the Cubbies. Also considering under.

[Luv2Play2]

have some dam kids

Action Parlay (Not for records win or lose)

Tigers ML/Cardinals ML 0.35x to win 0.40x

Sorry about the late post...had to cut the grass...I never pay someone else for something I can do myself.

j/k gl always

[Love The Action]

j/k gl always

I do...but he's only 3 months and can't cut grass yet

[BigBoi]

any night plays?

[Love The Action]

any night plays?

Yep...posting now.

[JR007]

may be some value coming down the road when the rosters expand at the end of the month and football starts, as the attention shifts at that point until playoffs....may see some soft lines then

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/27/11

Play #1

Marlins/Phillies under (7.5)(-115) 2x (Locked)

Even though Sanchez has struggled of late and against the Phils in the past, I expect him to be on point against Halladay. Sanchez is a bit of a mystery in that he has not enjoyed greater success, although much of that can be attributed to his team. With FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the low 3's, K% over 24% and GB/FB of 1.22, he will not be outdone by many. He does have a tendency to give up a few too many home runs, but with the hurricane bearing down on the east coast, the wind will be coming out of the ENE, which is basically in from right field. On the other side, there are none better than Halladay who ranks top 5 across the board in most stats. From his FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to low 2's, to his K% at 24% and GB/FB at 1.66. Unlike Sanchez, Halladay has dominated the Marlins lineup in the past. The ump is O'Nora, who has no lean throughout his history but always rocks a strike rate in the 63.5% range. With the superior starting pitchers, the wind blowing in, a decent ump for the under and the fact that these players are human and are going to want to get this game over quick, I am rolling with the under for 2x. I expect this one to both possibly drop to 7 at some point but the possibility of a rainout looms large...good luck.

Play #2

White Sox ML (-105) 1x (Locked)

No need for a big writeup here, the Mariners are the worst team in baseball against lefties both hitting and record wise and Danks is pitching well right now for a team that must continue to win to keep up with the Tigers in the playoff race. Pineda has never approached these many innings and is getting tired. Plus, the Sox already faced Pineda so there is no unfamiliarity factor working in his favor. I like the Sox to win tonight and I'm backing them for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cubs/Brewers under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Cubs ML (+180) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

White Sox/Mariners under (7) 1x (Locked)

I have not played the total and side in two plays all year, but there is a first time for everything. I think these are good spots for both Chicago teams to pull out a victory on the road. You have Eddings as the ump in Seattle with his big under lean and Tom Hallion in Milwaukee with his 63.5% strike rate. Both pitchers are on their game in Milwaukee, where Dempster has always pitched well against a lineup he has generally limited. I have the Cubs getting over 20 cents in value at +180, which is better than most of the market. In Seattle, I think both pitchers throw well, with Danks just a little better. The White Sox lineup is bit weak tonight, which is why I like the under but I still think they pull it out. I apologize for the disjointed writeups, but I'm out the door to a block party and in a hurry. I'm looking forward to a nice night tonight and big Sunday. Good luck to everyone tonight.

[Love The Action]

Action parlay (not for the records win or lose)

Cubs ML
Cubs/Brewers under
White Sox ML
White Sox/Mariners under

Risk 0.25x to win 3.5x

Just gotta do it...I love these plays! Good luck tonight guys...I'm out for the block party.

[shocktopme]

I have no lean on this one. I actually like Duffy -- I have not invested in him yet -- but I followed his progress. Obviously, he has not done that well. Carmona has the ability to succeed, but he too has had some missteps. I think both lineups are a bit banged up and the line has not shot up to 9 despite this being the biggest public play on the board. I just don't see an edge in this one. Good luck with whatever you choose.

Thanx bud!!!!Be safe at block party!!!Dont ride the BIKE home*LOL*

[blackeyeshamus]

Play #2

White Sox ML (-105) 1x (Locked)

No need for a big writeup here, the Mariners are the worst team in baseball against lefties both hitting and record wise and Danks is pitching well right now for a team that must continue to win to keep up with the Tigers in the playoff race. Pineda has never approached these many innings and is getting tired. Plus, the Sox already faced Pineda so there is no unfamiliarity factor working in his favor. I like the Sox to win tonight and I'm backing them for 1x. Good luck.

[figue]

[Jago2008]

LTA is the most legit player on this board, if anybody disagrees, they're just stupid.

[Jago2008]

Cuetto v. Zimmerman, anyone else seeing the under on this...

[Redscot]

Sup LTA, hope all is well in Cappingville. Looks like I am grounded today, Irene followed me from the DR to NYC . Looks like you had a profitable day yesterday my man, looking forward to see what you have on tap today.

[Redscot]

First glance liking the Zona under, WSox ml. Nat's are tempting at that price, Cueto is do for some regression, Zimmerman looking to finish strong before being shut down.

Do we go back to the Eovaldi well....? I think I like the over in that one, lean towards Chacin too, Eovaldi is due to get hit. Morrow too schizo ( as you pointed out before), San Fran under is tempting but Norris' WHIP has been horrid of late, don't know if I trust him.

Look forward to hearing your thoughts bud, block party may have taken a toll on ya .

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 8/27/11

2 - 2 (with one play postponed) = -0.2x

MLB Season 2011

362 - 332 = +23.66x

Great calls on the White Sox ML and the under in that game, only to be wasted on horrible calls on the Cubs ML and Cubs under. Taught me a valuable lesson...never trust the Cubs!!! Onto Sunday...I have some bigger plays. Very excited!

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/28/11

Play #1

Nationals/Reds under (7.5) 2x (Locked)

Yes, I am a bit worried about Cueto. I took an over between the Reds and Cubs awhile back with Cueto on the mound because he can't continue getting so lucky with his BABIP and LOB%. However, despite him getting pulled after the third inning in that Cubs game and giving up 3 earned runs in five innings in his last start against the Marlins, his overall numbers are still solid as his addition of his curveball to his repertoire has correlated to a direct improvement in his ability to get ground balls and has improvement in tERA and SIERA from the previous year. Before this year, Cueto had never thrown a curveball with regularity and this year he is throwing it effectively 9.4% of the time. That is a big jump and hitters are still adjusting as Cueto's GB% has improved from 41% to 53% and his GB/FB has gone from 1.1 to 1.6. Cueto has been nothing if not effective this season, as he has only given up more than 3 runs one time all season. Plus, he has always fared well against the Nationals holding them to a BAA around .200 and OPS under .550. On the other side, Zimmerman has been money for us lately as we have cashed on three straight unders with him, so why not go for four! In fact, he has thrown to five straight unders and seven out of ten. My boy Zimm is performing well right before he gets shut down for the season by his innings cap. Zimm's 3.6 WAR shows his true value to his team, bettering Cueto, for example, and his 2.4 WAR by a +1.2 differential. Both have been really solid, but that number helps illustrate just how solid Zimm has been. I won't go through all the numbers, but Zimm's FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA are all in the mid 3's and are better than Cueto's who lie in the high 3's or low 4's. Zimmerman has also fared well against the Reds in the past holding them scoreless over 6 innings in his lone start against them. The line movement is up and down with some early money on the over, overnight money on the under with the majority of all bets on the under as I type. I think the percentages will even out a little more and expect this to be a 40/60 split by game time, but still a public play. The wind is blowing across the stadium, but the ump is a definite concern as Holbrook represents a solid over lean. However, just two years ago, he umped more unders and than overs and his over lean is compensated in my model with a final total still ringing in at 6.6 for this one. Therefore, I am rolling with the under here for 2x for the first of our Sunday four-pack of 2x unders. Good luck.

Play #2

TB/Toronto under (7.5)(-115) 2x (Locked)

Here we have another matchup of guys who have great value to their team as Morrow's 3.4 WAR stacks up well against Price's 3.6. My model loves guys with solid WAR scores with peripherals that match. These guys both rock FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA scores in the low 3's and both are huge strike out threats with K% from 22% to 26%. Morrow needs to increase his GB% and GB/FB, as his tendency to throw a few too many fly balls has hurt him in the past, but Price has improved that part of his game each year he has been a starter, getting it around the 1.2 where it currently stands (compared to Morrow's .8). We have another matchup here where both starters dominate the opposing lineups, with both pitchers holding the opposing hitters to around a .200 BAA and under .650 OPS with career ERA's right at or under 2 and WHIP's under 1. Both lineups can be dangerous, but Toronto is mired in a bit of slump in their last ten games hitting just above .200 overall and is 3-6-1 o/u over that same time frame. TB is 2-7-1 o/u in their last ten, but they are hitting better than Toronto and most of those game came at home. Nevertheless, I expect Morrow to continue his success against this TB lineup and have a great bounce back performance from his most recent start in which he got lifted in the fifth inning after giving up 6 earned runs to KC. I expect this bounceback, at least in part, because he generally does not have two bad outtings in a row as evidenced by his history in limiting teams to 3 earned runs or less after giving up 5 earned runs or more in his previous start since he became a full time starter in late 2009. I expect that trend to continue today facing a lineup he has confidence against. The Blue Jays need a win in this spot and with their offense struggling, Morrow needs to have a good performance and I think he is up for the challenge. The ump is Nelson who has a solid 63.5% strike rate, but no long term lean either way. His runs/game are a bit high for my liking, but he has a nice history with Price in umping to two straight easy unders in his games. I think both pitchers' ability to get strikeouts against these lineups is a huge factor today and I expect both to pitch into the seventh inning (provided the Morrow throws strikes today like he has in the past against TB). My model has this one at 6.9, which is not the usual one run or more variance with the available line that I usually like for a 2x play, but because of the historical dominance of these pitchers against these lineups (even though we recognize that past success does not necessarily result in future success), I am going to stake it at the same level as my three other under plays and make this the second 2x play in our Sunday four-pack of 2x unders. Let's make some money! Good luck.

Play #3

Astros/Giants under (6.5)(+100) 2x (Locked)

I respect this starting pitching matchup with Cain and his 4.7 WAR going up against Norris sporting a 1.5. However, Norris is facing the Giants lineup, the weakness of which cannot be understated right now. Even though the Giants won in dramatic fashion last night, I do not expect them to eclipse more than 2-3 runs today against Norris. Both pitchers have a nice advantage in that, other than four guys from each team, neither lineup has faced these two pitchers before. Therefore, I give the edge to both pitchers in this game where neither lineup is all that great from the get-go and both of these pitchers are big strike out guys sporting K% over 20%. This is a big game for the Giants as they desperately need to keep pace with AZ and a big game for Norris personally as he will try to get his record to .500 in his last few starts. I have this one at 5.7 and because neither lineup is very dangerous at the moment, I will make this a 2x play as part of today's four-pack of 2x unders. The game is in SF where the field usually helps keep scoring at bay and although the wind is blowing straight out to center, the velocity is not projected to get above 10 mph so the wind should hopefully not be much of a factor. The ump is Vanover who has no historical lean for the over or under, but does generally have a strike rate right around 63.5% which is just where we like it. Early money came in on the under steadily since open last night as the line went from big juice on the over to -105 on both sides as I type. I agree with the early money here and I will take the under for 2x at plus odds for the third 2x play in our Sunday four-pack of 2x unders. Good luck.

Play #4

Padres/Diamondbacks under (7.5)(-115) 2x (Locked)

Both Luebke and Kennedy have won me some money recently and I am going to ride them again here against two more lineups who are struggling a bit of late. The Padres actually have hit over the last month, but have not followed that hitting to Arizona on this road trip. I expect that lack of offense to continue against Kennedy, who is another value guy with a WAR at 3.4 and superb numbers in this career year that he is having. Kennedy is another big strike out guy with his K% a little above 20% and his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA all at the 3.5/3.6 range. Plus, just like a few of our other unders for today, Kennedy has completely dominated the Padres in the past limiting this lineup to a BAA under .200 with a WHIP under 1, OPS around .500 and a lifetime ERA at 2.9. On the other side, Luebke is 2.2 WAR guy with a huge K% over 27% and FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all ringing in under 3. It is true that Luebke was not a full time starter until late June, however, those are still impressive numbers and I expect him to fare well against a Diamondbacks team who is not hitting their best right now. Luebke's only start against AZ came earlier in the year as he gave up 4 earned runs in one of his poorer performances this year. However, that game came in July when AZ was rolling offensively and Justin Upton was on an unreal streak in leading AZ back into contention. This game comes at a time when Upton has come back down to earth and AZ is finally missing Drew in that lineup. The ump is Timmons who has only been umping in MLB for 2 years but has a solid under lean both those seasons (8-16 o/u this year), with a strike rate around 63% and runs/game around 7.5. I have this one at 6.7 and even though AZ can be a launching pad, I think the the strength of starting pitching today, when combined with struggling offenses and a solid under ump, gives us enough to make this a 2x play and the fourth game in our Sunday four-pack of 2x unders.

Play #5

KC/Cleveland under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Cleveland's lineup is not looking very good to face a crafty left hander in Chen. I just don't think Carrera, Donald, Cabrera, Santana, Duncan, Fukudome, LaProta, Hanrahan and Head (notice Choo isn't even playing) score a ton of runs today against Chen who is never going to be mistaken for a Cy Young guy, but who you have to respect. On the other side, you have Masterson who advanced stats just love when you see his WAR of 5, FIP of 2.9 and xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid 3's. However, it is Masterson's ability to get both strikeouts with a K% at 18% and ground balls with a GB/FB over 2.2 which really impresses me. He is really having a break out year and I expect him to pitch very well today against a lineup he has not dominated in the past, but has pitched well. This one opened at 8 and was quickly bet down to 7.5 by this morning and continues to get juiced on the under as I type. This is one of those games where my sharpest local, who I have mentioned takes leans in the past, took a big lean here opening this one at 7.5 against the rest of the market. As soon as I saw the offshore market and Pinny start dropping, I jumped on this one at plus odds. I have this one at 7.2, which isn't the most value in the world according to my model, but with the wind blowing directly in at almost 15 mph and Gibson as the ump with his huge under lean, I like this play. Until the last two seasons, Gibson did not have an o/u lean, but last year he went 7-25 o/u and this year he is at 6-17 o/u, so I think this guy is a solid complement to an under bet. Based on the foregoing, I am going to roll with the under here for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

White Sox ML (-117) 1x (Locked)

We cashed with the Sox last night and we'll give them a shot here for the sweep. I just love this pitching matchup and think it highly favors the White Sox. You have Gavin Floyd who has been the best Sox starter since the All-Star break along with Danks, going against the lefty in Vargas who has struggled of late. I am hopeful that Ozzie will keep Dunn on the bench today against Vargas and play the youngster Viciedo. However, even if Dunn plays, I think we see the sweep today. I just really like this pitching matchup and if you compare the advanced stats, you will see that Floyd dominates Vargas in WAR, K%, GB/FB, FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. Floyd has done is best work on the road this year, which, coincidentally, is where the Sox as a team have performed their best. This one is a big public fave and we have even seen some RLM in favor of the Mariners, however, we saw the same yesterday and we all know how that turned out in the Sox's favor. I have this one at -123 and thanks to the line drop we even get some value taking them at -117. The Sox are one of the best road teams in the league going against one of the worst home teams in the Mariners and with such an advantage in starting pitching, I am going to back the Sox for 1x. Good luck.

[lakerboy]

Good Luck

[Redscot]

Going strong today LTA, good luck

[God1]

lol nothing but chalk. when will people learn that there's no money in betting unders when two studs are on the mound? if the tb/toronto total was under 7 +105 you'd probably still say under, if the nationals/reds was under 7.5 -110 you'd still say under. And that's because these totals moving 10-15 cents doesn't change your reason for betting the under and that's why you will lose over the long run betting like this. You just can't beat totals by just looking at pitching seeing its really good and "picking" under