LTA's MLB Plays

[God1]

Total dropped to 7 at 5dimes. Be careful with your use of absolutes, 'god'.

under 7.5 -120 is not far off from under 7. So now you still have one of if not the lowest wrigley totals of the year

[freshguy222]

already down!

[freshguy222]

we can only hope on beachy to go nearly perfect should be possible with that bullpen and maybe atlanta quits batting now

[Donnie Brasco]

Terrific 3-1 bottom first, oh well

[Love The Action]

Should have stuck with detroit and that under....when it rains it pours...

[God1]

your lesson has been learned kids

[Love The Action]

your lesson has been learned kids

Hahaha, what a dick.

[Bob734]

Hahaha, what a dick.

[azplaya]

Hey Lta just wanted to let you know that I've been following for about three weeks and I really appreciate the work you do. Your probably the most consistent poster I've ever followed and you put alot of thought and detail into your write ups. Alot of guys just list plays with no reasoning, seems like they are just flipping coins. Anyways, I put your first two plays each day into a labby parlay system I've been using all season and its been work great. Just wanted to say thanks for all you do. Now if I can just find someone as good in NFL and NCAA football...

[shocktopme]

Hahaha, what a dick.

I'll second that!!!!

[Love The Action]

Hey Lta just wanted to let you know that I've been following for about three weeks and I really appreciate the work you do. Your probably the most consistent poster I've ever followed and you put alot of thought and detail into your write ups. Alot of guys just list plays with no reasoning, seems like they are just flipping coins. Anyways, I put your first two plays each day into a labby parlay system I've been using all season and its been work great. Just wanted to say thanks for all you do. Now if I can just find someone as good in NFL and NCAA football...

Thanks...that is very humbling....just glad I could help.

I'll have a nfl and ncaaf thread up once football starts for real.

Good luck tonight

[Love The Action]

Sticking with the Pirates/Cards under as my sole play for tonight. Might add another unit if we get some late line movement in our favor. Need to be careful though, these late inning losses are burning through our profits. GL.

[Love The Action]

Anyone know the ump in the cardinals game? I can't access SI right now...thanks!

[Love The Action]

Anyone know the ump in the cardinals game? I can't access SI right now...thanks!

Got it...ump is Reynolds...adding extra unit now...

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/25/11

Play #1

Pirates/Cardinals under (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I have this one at 7.2 and it will take a score of 9 to beat us, so I really like our chances here despite the recent spat of overs the last few days. Morton has been pitching extremely well and has numbers that would surprise you if you don't do this everyday. Morton is the best pitcher in the league at getting ground balls with a GB/FB over 3.4. His WAR is at 2.1, which is better than many bigger names. Even though his splits show a decisive dip against lefties, Larussa does not have the ability to throw 6 or 7 lefties at Morton. In stead, with Furcal being a switch hitter, I expect 4-5 lefties at most. In addition, other than Berkman, the Cards best hitters are righties and with Morton's sinker working to perfection over his last five starts, I think we see Morton get the best of the Cardinals best (Pujols and Holliday) today. Morton has really solid FIP, xFIP and SIERA scores in the 3.6 to 3.8 range and has been very consistent of late. However, in addition to Morton, I think this one stays under because the Cardinals are just not hitting very well right now and are 3-6-1 o/u in their last ten. On the other side, Jackson is an enigma. If he can get out of the first inning, you will generally see him cruise. He has had trouble in the first inning, so if we see no score after the first inning, then we are in good shape. Jackson has a 2.8 WAR with similar FIP, xFIP and SIERA scores to Morton. Jackson has a better K% than Morton at 18%, but does not get nearly as many ground balls with a GB/FB of 1.54 (which is still very respectable). The Pirates are hitting pretty well, but this is their first road game after 9 straight home games and is their fourth game in three days indicating those bats may be just a bit tired. I don't know the ump yet, but I I think we see the under start getting juiced here relatively soon and I wanted to get in this one at plus odds while they are still around. I'm rolling with the under here for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Braves/Cubs under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Lot of the reasons for this play were included in previous posts and I had to jump on it quick once it started to drop a fe minutes ago. The only thing that concerns me is that Beachy is a fly ball pitcher, but I'm hoping the wind blowing in mitigates that concern. The ump is Foster who is not the best for an under, but not the worst either with a 62.8% strike rate. I have this one at 6.8, so I eill give the under a play for 1x. Good luck.

Added 1x to Play #1 for total of 2x Pirates/Cards under (8) (1x under (8)(+100); 1x under (8)(-110))

Everything looks good here, we even have an under leaning ump and wind blowing in. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 8/25/11

0 - 2 = -3.2x

MLB Season 2011

358 - 328 = +23.96x

Wow, and I thought the end of July was bad. I am really scuffling right now. Sorry guys. Clearly need to make some adjustments or something. Even though we have missed out on over +20x in the last couple weeks to relatively bad beats, that is no excuse for this recent slide. What really sucks is that unless I turn it around in the next couple days, I will have to pay out to one of my books for the first time in a long time. That will not make my wife happy. Nevertheless, I can't cap as if I'm desperate because that just leads to chasing and poor plays. I just have to stick to what I know works, has always worked and follow my model and capping process. This is so very frustrating though. Good luck tomorrow. I trust that I will get it turned around, but I surely don't blame you for fading me right now. At least someone should profit off these plays since I'm clearly not

Good luck on everyone's late plays. I do lean to the Astros as a fade of Vogelsong, but I'm not making any more plays.

[fly fisher]

Wow, I had a rough day. I had Oakland and Cubs under and Tulsa in NBA. I knew I lost the Cubs but thought I was good with Oakland since I left work and Oak was up 7-1, got home from football pracice and saw they lost 22-9, then my biggest bet of the day with Tulsa +14.5. Just finished watching the Tulsa/Seattle WNBA game, they were down by 10 with 54 seconds to go, then found a way to lose by 17. Sometimes this all sucks.

[Love The Action]

Pretty ugly card today...damn

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/26/11

Play #1

Angels (ML)(+106) 1x (Locked)

Local was offering +106 when Pinny was at +108, but I had to take it because I don't think it's going any higher. The Angels were as high as +111, after opening at -103 at Pinny. It does concern me a little bit that early money hit Texas. However, this is the third time Haren has faced Holland with each pitcher winning in the other's ballpark and I think that trend continues today. Texas is scuffling a little bit right now after getting blanked by Miller of the Red Sox. Usually, I like to back teams coming off a shutout and Miller was a lefty (able to shut down Hamilton, etc. with that sweeping curve). However, despite a decent season so far from Holland, his numbers pale in comparison to Haren who is truly in the elite class of MLB pitchers. I won't go through all the stats, but Haren has a significant advantage in most advanced stats. Texas is hitting those dog days of summer where the Texas heat could be affecting them just a little as evidenced by the disproportionate amount of 95 degree + days they have played in this year. The Angels are coming in fresh after having a day off and I think Haren is ready to go after getting beaten up by Texas in their last matchup. I have this one pretty close to Pinny's open and I think any Angel's price at plus odds is a solid play here. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I'd like to take the under 9 in the KC/Cle game, but there's no way I can trust Jiminez right now...

Today's totals are tough...not much out there today but there are a few I like.

[JR007]

LTA, look at other alternatives, ie team totals, small money line dogs etc, respect your capping abilities but get off the train, if it ain't working...totals have not been good since the all-star break,

no lecture here, just trying to help

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/26/11

Play #1

Angels (ML)(+106) 1x (Locked)

Local was offering +106 when Pinny was at +108, but I had to take it because I don't think it's going any higher. The Angels were as high as +111, after opening at -103 at Pinny. It does concern me a little bit that early money hit Texas. However, this is the third time Haren has faced Holland with each pitcher winning in the other's ballpark and I think that trend continues today. Texas is scuffling a little bit right now after getting blanked by Miller of the Red Sox. Usually, I like to back teams coming off a shutout and Miller was a lefty (able to shut down Hamilton, etc. with that sweeping curve). However, despite a decent season so far from Holland, his numbers pale in comparison to Haren who is truly in the elite class of MLB pitchers. I won't go through all the stats, but Haren has a significant advantage in most advanced stats. Texas is hitting those dog days of summer where the Texas heat could be affecting them just a little as evidenced by the disproportionate amount of 95 degree + days they have played in this year. The Angels are coming in fresh after having a day off and I think Haren is ready to go after getting beaten up by Texas in their last matchup. I have this one pretty close to Pinny's open and I think any Angel's price at plus odds is a solid play here. Good luck.

Play #2

Rockies/Dodgers over (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Padres/Diamondbacks under (9) 1x (Locked)

Off to work, so not time for writeups right now. I will try to post my thoughts later. I will say that if you like these plays, you should get on them now because I expect both lines to move pretty soon in support of these plays. I have the Rockies/Dodgers game at 8.6 and the Padres/Diamondbacks at 7.8, so I'm getting just about a full run of value with these plays. Good luck.

[blumpkin]

LTA is Paulino worth a look at +155??

[Love The Action]

LTA, look at other alternatives, ie team totals, small money line dogs etc, respect your capping abilities but get off the train, if it ain't working...totals have not been good since the all-star break,

no lecture here, just trying to help

No worries...I respect everyone's opinion. Thanks.

Neither of my locals offer team totals, so I can't play them. I have a play on the Angels today as a small ML dog and will make money line plays where my model and capping process show the value.

I have had numerous ML and total plays burned by late inning meltdowns over the last two weeks, which is part of baseball, but adds to the challenge.

On all of those plays, I killed the closer. Even on yesterday's Cubs under and Cardinals under, I had beat the closer. I am a firm believer that as long as I spot the right plays that beat the closing line, I will end up doing just fine. I am still beating the closer more than 70% of the time right now, but things just haven't gone my way. That will change.

I have to trust my model and process or I'm sunk. I have lost no confidence in anything I do and we're coming up on month where I expect there to be great opportunities while the playoff races unfold. I expect to be just fine and will get on a roll

Good luck

[Love The Action]

LTA is Paulino worth a look at +155??

I think so...I really have to leave for work now but will try to respond later on this one. I do lean to the Royals.

[JR007]

yeah, it will change come playoffs ...for sure...public see low totals and bets over,

[Love The Action]

Pretty ugly card today...damn

I think I was wrong....todays card is looking better and better....we might just have a few more plays.

Good luck today!

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/26/11

Play #1

Angels (ML)(+106) 1x (Locked)

Local was offering +106 when Pinny was at +108, but I had to take it because I don't think it's going any higher. The Angels were as high as +111, after opening at -103 at Pinny. It does concern me a little bit that early money hit Texas. However, this is the third time Haren has faced Holland with each pitcher winning in the other's ballpark and I think that trend continues today. Texas is scuffling a little bit right now after getting blanked by Miller of the Red Sox. Usually, I like to back teams coming off a shutout and Miller was a lefty (able to shut down Hamilton, etc. with that sweeping curve). However, despite a decent season so far from Holland, his numbers pale in comparison to Haren who is truly in the elite class of MLB pitchers. I won't go through all the stats, but Haren has a significant advantage in most advanced stats. Texas is hitting those dog days of summer where the Texas heat could be affecting them just a little as evidenced by the disproportionate amount of 95 degree + days they have played in this year. The Angels are coming in fresh after having a day off and I think Haren is ready to go after getting beaten up by Texas in their last matchup. I have this one pretty close to Pinny's open and I think any Angel's price at plus odds is a solid play here. Good luck.

Play #2

Rockies/Dodgers over (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Padres/Diamondbacks under (9) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Reds -1 RL (-107) 1x (Locked)

I will try to post some quick thoughts about all of the plays before gametime. Still sorting through the card and I expect a few more plays. Good luck today...it's bounceback Friday!

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/26/11

Play #1

Angels (ML)(+106) 1x (Locked)

Local was offering +106 when Pinny was at +108, but I had to take it because I don't think it's going any higher. The Angels were as high as +111, after opening at -103 at Pinny. It does concern me a little bit that early money hit Texas. However, this is the third time Haren has faced Holland with each pitcher winning in the other's ballpark and I think that trend continues today. Texas is scuffling a little bit right now after getting blanked by Miller of the Red Sox. Usually, I like to back teams coming off a shutout and Miller was a lefty (able to shut down Hamilton, etc. with that sweeping curve). However, despite a decent season so far from Holland, his numbers pale in comparison to Haren who is truly in the elite class of MLB pitchers. I won't go through all the stats, but Haren has a significant advantage in most advanced stats. Texas is hitting those dog days of summer where the Texas heat could be affecting them just a little as evidenced by the disproportionate amount of 95 degree + days they have played in this year. The Angels are coming in fresh after having a day off and I think Haren is ready to go after getting beaten up by Texas in their last matchup. I have this one pretty close to Pinny's open and I think any Angel's price at plus odds is a solid play here. Good luck.

Play #2

Rockies/Dodgers over (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Padres/Diamondbacks under (9) 1x (Locked)


Play #4

Reds -1 RL (-107) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Royals/Indians under (8.5) 1x (Locked)

I have to follow my original lean and go with the under instead of the Royals ml. Tichenor is an under ump, the wind is blowing in and both lineups are banged u (although Gordon and Francour are playing while Choo and Escobar are out). Jiminez and Paulino both have solid stats and Jiminez is better than he has pitched so far for the tribe. Majority on the over, yet the line has dropped. I'm getting a bad number at 8.5 rather than 9, but I have it at 7.7, so I still really like this play and im rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[God1]

Play #5

Royals/Indians under (8.5) 1x (Locked)

I have to follow my original lean and go with the under instead of the Royals ml. Tichenor is an under ump, the wind is blowing in and both lineups are banged u (although Gordon and Francour are playing while Choo and Escobar are out). Jiminez and Paulino both have solid stats and Jiminez is better than he has pitched so far for the tribe. Majority on the over, yet the line has dropped. I'm getting a bad number at 8.5 rather than 9, but I have it at 7.7, so I still really like this play and im rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Under is a good bet but Paulino's not as good as he looks. His career BABIP is something like .335 and it's at the number of innings where it doesn't just seem to be bad luck so you can expect ERA to be quite a bit higher than SIERA. He's also god awful against lefties of which the indians i think have 4+the switch hitters

[Love The Action]

Under is a good bet but Paulino's not as good as he looks. His career BABIP is something like .335 and it's at the number of innings where it doesn't just seem to be bad luck so you can expect ERA to be quite a bit higher than SIERA. He's also god awful against lefties of which the indians i think have 4+the switch hitters

Yep...that is accurate. Paulino is much worse (more than one run difference in FIP and xFIP in his platoon splits) against lefties. The indians know this too as they have seven guys hitting from the left side tonight. However, im not really worried about those particular seven because they are all pretty much injury replacements/reserve type guys. Plus Paulino's improved curveball and changeup have bettered his chances against lefties, especially that changeup which has a reverse platoon split. As long as he can locate that curve and mix up speeds with that changeup tonight, the scrub indians that he faces should note do too much damage.

[JR007]

big move on the run-line in the phillies game

money-line on this game is up significantly

"So when you look at this pitching matchup of Roy Oswalt and Clay Hensley, you can only shake your head and wonder if it'll get any worse for the Marlins. Oswalt is 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA in three starts versus Florida since arriving in Philadelphia last year, while Hensley has been horrendous this month, posting a 9.87 ERA in four starts over 17-1/3 innings."

might be worth a shot on the run-line -1.5

[Love The Action]

big move on the run-line in the phillies game

money-line on this game is up significantly

"So when you look at this pitching matchup of Roy Oswalt and Clay Hensley, you can only shake your head and wonder if it'll get any worse for the Marlins. Oswalt is 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA in three starts versus Florida since arriving in Philadelphia last year, while Hensley has been horrendous this month, posting a 9.87 ERA in four starts over 17-1/3 innings."

might be worth a shot on the run-line -1.5

I agree....been contemplating phillies all day and the over. The question as always is do you pay for possible push and go with the -1 rl? I generally do, but the price is really high right now as I missed out on the early action. Hensley is garbage.

[Love The Action]

Kellog is the ump for the AZ under play....he has a small historical under lean.

[JR007]

Good luck tonight,