LTA's MLB Plays

[Redscot]

Unfortunately, yes

I like Niese here, but that's about it. However, with Rollins out, perhaps your muts get it done. I gotta mull that one over....a lot! Anyway, I'm off for work. Have a good one. I'll check back later. BOL.

This is probably the only game in more than a week that I am tempted myself. Phillie line-up w/o Rollins and Ibanez/Howard/Utley against Niese using his sweeping curve (what has really made him much better against Lefties this year) more and more effectively. Getting +180 ish seems like value here. Of course, the pen is almost good for 2-3 runs a night atm.

[BennyFang]

Any thoughts on the Rockies today vs Houston? No in depth analysis yet but simply a case of two teams going in different directions. The Rockies are starting to hit on this homestand while Houston seems ready for a regression after a nice run at home. Norris can certainly put together a solid start but his last four outings have been mediocre outside of a nice one against the offensively challenged Dodgers. I'm curious whether White crossed paths with any of the Astros in the minors in the last couple of years. If not, I like the play even more. Thinking about going hard on them -1. Any thoughts from anyone on here would be appreciated!

I'm going to post this on the Astros guy's thread as well. Thanks!

[BennyFang]

any thoughts on sides in the Toronto/KC and Washington/Arizona games?

I think both KC and Detroit have good value. I'll probably play them both small; see if I can hit one of the two.

Already took Washington simply as a fade of Arizona.

[guil0000]

good to seethat as I thought the same

[Love The Action]

For those that asked, I have no lean on the KC and Detroit sides. However, I think it's tough to go against Price and Morrow at home with inferior SP's.
Also, I look at the Astros/Rockies matchup as too much of a coinflip, but would agree that if White has never faced the Astros lineup before in the minors, I would probably lean to the Rockies because of the better lineup. That's a pretty big price though and not sure if that's a good spot to back a rookie.

Good luck in whatever you guys decide!

[pacocn]

Lta, i think the Padres offer better value than KC or Det

[Love The Action]

Solid line movement just as we expected....the Natties total dropped to 7, the Marlins total is about to drop or already has and the dodgers under is getting juiced pretty heavy. We already had a drop in the Yankees total and the Braves price has gone up about 9 cents over our locked in price. Lets just keep beating closers and we will be profitable when it's all said and done. GL.

[Love The Action]

FYI...Joey Votto is not in the lineup for the Reds, so that should help out our under play a bit...expect more line movement favoring the under once that news gets out on a larger scale.

[guil0000]

Solid line movement just as we expected....the Natties total dropped to 7, the Marlins total is about to drop or already has and the dodgers under is getting juiced pretty heavy. We already had a drop in the Yankees total and the Braves price has gone up about 9 cents over our locked in price. Lets just keep beating closers and we will be profitable when it's all said and done. GL.

well said. I think beating closers is probably the most important thing in sports betting, or getting the best line available early or late. Even if you don't necessarily like the plays scalping can be profitable also

[Love The Action]

Looking really hard at the Mets. Without Howard and Rollins, the Mets should not be more than +155 with this pitching matchup.

[Krazymojo]

Looking really hard at the Mets. Without Howard and Rollins, the Mets should not be more than +155 with this pitching matchup.

Really like niese here with rollins and howard not in the lineupbworley ia good but ak is niese

[Redscot]

Looking really hard at the Mets. Without Howard and Rollins, the Mets should not be more than +155 with this pitching matchup.

You are absolutely right LTA. You know I am in fade mode with them and am up 4.32 units as we speak in less than 2 weeks. That being said, the value is undeniable tonight. My biggest concern is the pen.

[Love The Action]

You are absolutely right LTA. You know I am in fade mode with them and am up 4.32 units as we speak in less than 2 weeks. That being said, the value is undeniable tonight. My biggest concern is the pen.

Yeah...just don't want to add a loser to what I feel is an extremely solid card. The line movement has supported each of our plays and if it holds, we will have beaten every closer (except maybe that yanks under, but we might just beat that one too). I always expect to win, but I feel especially good about todays card and a possible 6-0 day. Therefore, I probably wont add a questionable Mets play that has some value but the line movement has started to look more philly friendly than it did earlier. I will make a final decision soon. GL.

[GoggsViggs]

GL tonight bros.

[Jago2008]

Any 'under' bet on Cuetto is a great bet. I have cashed his last 2 unders against the Rockies and Nats. Both 2-1 victories. This is a very solid bet.

In any case there's no reason to be redundant. Great plays man, thank you for taking the time to share these.

appreciated.

CASH

[Redscot]

Wow, even I didn't realize the extent of this Mut fade.....this could start to get ugly soon.

Looking good on the plays bro, McCarthy is doing work

[Love The Action]

Wow, even I didn't realize the extent of this Mut fade.....this could start to get ugly soon.

Looking good on the plays bro, McCarthy is doing work

I am very glad I decided to stay away from that Mets play. Wise choice. There's a reason you are employing the blind fade, profitably I might add.

Looks like a lot my writeups proved true so far, both good and bad.

If you look at the Dodgers under writeup, I was worried about the reunion of Kemp, Loney and Ethier. Two of which have combined to destroy our under by the third inning.

Cueto's regression is upon us. He seems to be living dangerously almost every inning. With that said, Nolasco's continued poor performances perplex me as his numbers say he is one of the best out there.

Sure hope we can pull out a 4-2 day. I could use a nice day without the theatrics of a bullpen collapse.

Good luck

[alamo]

Raining home runs at the moment, every game looks destined to go over tonight.

[Love The Action]

Raining home runs at the moment, every game looks destined to go over tonight.

Late innings have been tough...I wouldn't say every game though.

[Love The Action]

Looking for the ump in San Diego. Anyone see it? I can't get onto SI right now. Would like to add a bit based on the line movement in light of the betting percentages. Thanks.

[70kgman]

You seem to have the worst luck with these late inning collapses. Even worse than my luck with hoops unders and overtime. Cincinnati were up 2-0 and NYY were up 3-0 about two thirds of the way through the games, I step out for 25 minutes, come back and the scores ballooned to 5-4 and 6-4. You afraid this is only going to get worse in September when the September call-ups are present and you start seeing non playoff teams trying out AAA relievers in key situations?

[alamo]

Late innings have been tough...I wouldn't say every game though.

Maybe not every game but of the 14 in progress/finished, 12 of them have hit over. 12/14 is pretty impressive.

[Love The Action]

You seem to have the worst luck with these late inning collapses. Even worse than my luck with hoops unders and overtime. Cincinnati were up 2-0 and NYY were up 3-0 about two thirds of the way through the games, I step out for 25 minutes, come back and the scores ballooned to 5-4 and 6-4. You afraid this is only going to get worse in September when the September call-ups are present and you start seeing non playoff teams trying out AAA relievers in key situations?

Yeah, definitely going to need to track these callups.

A lot of these are just poor bullpen work by established guys (Heath Bell, Valverde, etc.). I should have put more on the AZ/Wash under as I mentioned in my writeup, but didn't. I may add to the Giants/Pads under...I guess I just don't learn my lesson

I have to go with what's always worked. However, adjustments are always necessary. I think it's time to start really paring back on the plays per day in order to counteract some of this crazy bullpen variance. I really like this SD/SF under though, if I could just find the ump.

Good luck with your plays

[Love The Action]

Maybe not every game but of the 14 in progress/finished, 12 of them have hit over. 12/14 is pretty impressive.

Yeah, I was referring to the AZ/Wash game which is the one I really need

[Love The Action]

Play #3

Padres/Giants under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Yes I know Cain is like 5-10 against the Padres in his career. However, if you look at the stats he has put up against them, it is clear he was not the reason for the losses. Cain has limited the Padres to a weak BAA under .200 and OPS at .610 against these Padres hitters. That does not deserve such a poor record. On the other side, Latos has held the Giants lineup to a .663 OPS, but most of the guys that have hit Latos well are out of the lineup because of injury. Both pitchers have big value to their teams as evidenced by Cain's 4.2 WAR and Latos at 2.3, however, both are also right at a 3.5 SIERA which is very solid. Despite the Padres recent over streak, a lot of those occurred because of poor bullpen play. The Padres bullpen has killed me over the last 10 days, yet I go back to the well once more. If they blow it again, I will not say a word because I make this play fully cognizant of the bullpen meltdowns. I have this one at 5.4, so I have to give it a shot. Neither team is an offensive juggernaut and I expect this one to stay under the posted total for 1x.

Added 1x to Play 3 for total of 2x Padres/Giants under (6)(1x under (6)(+100); 1x under (6)(-105)

Porter is the ump with a big under lean and strike rate in the high 62% range. Between that and the line movement toward the under despite majority of bets on the over, plus the matchup info mentioned above, I think an addition here is warranted. Good luck.

[Dexter]

cain is disgusting tonight....the guy has burnt me all season...

[hawley]

Wish they would pinch hit for Cain at this AB then use Bullpen the rest of the match

Guy is garbage today

[Love The Action]

cain is disgusting tonight....the guy has burnt me all season...

Very disappointing/frustrating day. Felt like I had some solid calls, beat the line and still ended up in the red (assuming no miracle).

Time to shut down the computer, crack a beer and hang out with the baby before he goes to bed. Forget about all this for the night.

[man_of_steel]

How disappointing. Had a $10 7 team parlay and the last leg was LAA/CWS under 7. Went to sleep it was 2-0. Wake up to 5-4.

[Redscot]

Tough day at the office my man. Card was solid, no accounting for some things. Who'd have thunk the Dodgers would kill the under by themselves by the 3rd inning! I thought you had the Oak under in the bag too, McCarthy kept his end of the bargain. To top it off I played the Braves -1RL so only got the push there.

Today is another day, lot of week left to get us some cash.

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 8/24/11

2 - 4 = -3.1

MLB Season 2011

355 - 323 = +26.76x

Down but not out. All I can do is continue to spot value and beat the closer. As long as we continue to do that, we give ourselves the best chance to win. Good luck today.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/24/11

Play #1

Mariners ML (-105) 1x (Locked)

I toyed with the under here, but feel that a play on the Mariners is the better option. Hernadez at this price is a steal, as I have this one at -118. I expect the price to go up on the Mariners as we get closer to the game. The Mariners offense is as good as it's going to get right now and they are actually hitting .270 in their last ten against righties. They have a nice lefty platoon split in their lineup and Tomlin struggles against lefties throughout his career. Tomlin's advanced stats are ok, but pale in comparison to King Felix. Plus, with Haffner and Sizemore out, those are two of Cleveland's best hitters against Hernandez in the past. This is an early game, with both teams traveling and Hoye as the ump. I think the situational angles favor the Mariners here as well. I expect a fast game with the Mariners winning 4-2. I also lean under, but I missed the early move and don't like as much at -125 juice and definitely not at 6.5. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/24/11

Play #1

Mariners ML (-105) 1x (Locked)

I toyed with the under here, but feel that a play on the Mariners is the better option. Hernadez at this price is a steal, as I have this one at -118. I expect the price to go up on the Mariners as we get closer to the game. The Mariners offense is as good as it's going to get right now and they are actually hitting .270 in their last ten against righties. They have a nice lefty platoon split in their lineup and Tomlin struggles against lefties throughout his career. Tomlin's advanced stats are ok, but pale in comparison to King Felix. Plus, with Haffner and Sizemore out, those are two of Cleveland's best hitters against Hernandez in the past. This is an early game, with both teams traveling and Hoye as the ump. I think the situational angles favor the Mariners here as well. I expect a fast game with the Mariners winning 4-2. I also lean under, but I missed the early move and don't like as much at -125 juice and definitely not at 6.5. Good luck.

Play #2

Padres/Giants under (6) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup on this one, but these are two dominate pitchers against poor offenses (despite the Pads recent success). The ump is Drake with a huge 64.4% strike rate. I may add to this one down the road. Most of the bets are coming in on the over, yet most books are juicing the under. I have a good price -- at least for now -- getting it at -110 so I jumped on it so as not to risk a worse price later today if I am busy and can't monitor the lines. However, I actually expect the juice to go up on the over about midday and drop before gametime. Therefore, I may add to this play if we can get even odds later on the under. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Leans for right now:

Yankees (not sure how to mitigate some of that juice)
Dodgers/Cards under
Atlanta ML
Arizona ML

[pacocn]

Yanks on the -1 might mitigate some juice or 1.5.