LTA's MLB Plays

[Redscot]

Back to the grind as our fearless leader says. Feelin' a good week ahead of us LTA, keep on bangin' out the solid plays bud.

Thought I would add here, this is some info, albeit slightly dated on Lincoln

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/pirates-call-up-lincoln/

Knowing you, seeing Greinke sitting at 8 this Lincoln cat bears analysis. If I find anything more pertinent or recent will share.

[blumpkin]

im seeing the det/tb down to 6.5 at -120

[Love The Action]

Im Back

Wheres the football picks??? LOL

What's up buddy...hope all is well!

I don't play pre-season. I'm debating whether to do separate NFL/NCAAF threads or keep them together in one. I think I would rather have one thread, but we'll see. I will have it up relatively soon. Did you tail my 2x prop bet on the NFL starting the regular season on time on September 8th? If so, that one is looking good...

Good luck...glad to see you back

[Love The Action]

Back to the grind as our fearless leader says. Feelin' a good week ahead of us LTA, keep on bangin' out the solid plays bud.

Thought I would add here, this is some info, albeit slightly dated on Lincoln

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/pirates-call-up-lincoln/

Knowing you, seeing Greinke sitting at 8 this Lincoln cat bears analysis. If I find anything more pertinent or recent will share.

I assume everything is ok after the hurricane and you did not sustain any damage.

Nice catch with the article. Considering the under, but not sure if we can trust Lincoln. Need to look at that one a bit more. I would also like to see the lineups, because I'm not sure who is playing the first game versus the second game. I also like Milwaukee in that second game if they lose the early one. I generally don't play -190 juice, but Greinke going to avoid the sweep is looks solid. Need to see those lineups though.

Unfortunately, however, I am really busy at work today, so I may just stick with the two plays if I don't get some more time to check out the games. I researched the original matchup of Cliff Lee versus Jon Niese today and was prepared to make that a 1.5x play as well. However, the Mets are trotting Gee out there instead so that one is a no-go.

Arizona looked interesting, but we've seen solid RLM there dropping the price. Still, AZ is a better hitting team against lefties.

The Boston/Texas game looks like a sneaky under at 9 and I was eyeing that one, but there's no way I would take it at 8.5. Offenses are too solid.

I think a lot of people like that Orioles/Minny over, but that one looks more like another sneaky under play. Pavano's numbers are ok with a surprising WAR of 2.2 and Britton is the best the Orioles have and he is another guy with a surprising WAR of 1.7. You have over 90% of all bets on the over, yet the line has not moved and even favored the under in some spots. I wonder who the ump is there? That's just one to keep an eye on and I would think twice before going with the over....solid under lean there.

Probably staying away from the Jurrjjens/Demp matchup. Jurrjjens is not 100% or regressing..one of the two. Demp has been solid. Perhaps an action parlay on the Cubs and under.

Oh well, back to work, just wanted to see what was up around here. I really like the two under plays. The Detroit under has moved past -120 juice just like I predicted and as long as the Dodgers/Cards under does not move up to 7.5, we will be looking good in that one as well. I will be looking out for the umps.
Good luck to everyone today

[JR007]

might be better off with 1st 5's, eliminate some of the variance,(middle relief bullpens, subs, pitchhitters,etc, scoring happens more in the 1st half's, or so I have read

[Love The Action]

might be better offs with 1st 5's, eliminate some of the variance,(middle relie0f bullpens, subs, pitchhitters,etc, scoring happens more in the 1st half's, or so I have read

Thanks...I'm willing to play whatever if it's profitable. Unfortunately, based on tracking my past plays, there are as many games that are won in the late innings that would be lost in the FF and it does not make it profitable to go strictly FF. I think you just have to pick and choose your spots, but I generally have my capping process set up for full games and I really like to trust my process.

How is preseason football treating you?

[Krazymojo]

Naw didnt get on it maybe thinking bout putting money on the pats to win it all

[JR007]

Up and down LTA, in observation mode now, waiting on college football, I have doing this for 40 years, NFL by far the toughest, I really do not believe anyone who says they consistently win in NFL(longterm), lines are too sharp, take a look at the jets total , last nite, while only 16% of the spreads fall on the number, these games hang in the balance, both....sides and totals till mid-4th quarter,reg season try to stay with the basic mindset of underdogs and unders, and go from there

[Krazymojo]

Any other picks going up today?

[Krazymojo]

done with wnba?

[Love The Action]

Any other picks going up today?

Maybe one more play. Nothing at 7:10pm.

done with wnba?

No, I will be back for the playoff series. However, only if I can get good numbers. I refuse to bet into stale lines anymore and if I can't get a good line I'm not playing it. My locals never open their WNBA lines until about noon of game day. As you know, with all the early movement, I was stuck betting stale lines -- a recipe for failure for sure, especially to someone like myself who stresses the importance of beating the closer. Plus, between work, family, MLB and WNBA, I was spreading myself too thin and everything was suffering. During the WNBA all star break, I found it so refreshing not to have to cap WNBA consistently when combined with MLB. The daily grind of MLB capping is tough enough and I rarely take a day off, but when you added WNBA, it was getting too hard and time consuming. MLB is one of my favorite sports and investment market and I would never stop MLB, so I took some time off from WNBA. I've been tracking though and plan on coming back for the playoffs. I think we can make some nice money with playoff series where each team is playing the other over and over. We'll see.

How has everything been with you? I hope all is well

[Love The Action]

Leaning Cubs and Boston/Texas under for the late games. However, all the value has been sucked out of the Cubs play and the best I can get is +105, while the Boston/Texas game dropped from 9 to 8.5 and I don't like 8.5.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/22/11

Play #1

Detroit/TB under (7) 1.5x (Locked)

This is a great pitching matchup between two guys who have been two of the hotter, if not hottest, pitchers since the all-star break. I won't go through all of Verlander's numbers, but they are top 10 MLB stuff across the board. Niemann has been very solid, especially of late. My concern on this play is the amount of pitches he has had recently with 6 of his last 7 games going over 100 pitches and 5 of those 7 over 114 pitches. He has never come close to those number during any stretch throughout his career. Nevertheless, this guy should be in the prime of his career and if he's going to establish himself as an upper echelon pitcher, he has to succeed in spots like this. As a competitor, Niemann should be "up" for playing this game game opposite Verlander. He knows it's going to be a big game and I think we can depend on him here. Niemann has very solid season numbers that are not in Verlander's territory, but a notch down with a K% over 18%, FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the mid to high 3's and GB/FB around 1.2. Both pitchers have dominated the opposing lineup throughout the past with each limiting the other team to an OBP under .650 and BAA under .250. This game is in the "Trop," so that's always an added benefit. I don't have the ump assignments yet, but I fully expect this one to get juiced at -120 in the morning. I don't think we'll see 6.5, which is where I have this one set, because the Tigers offense is involved, but I definitely think we see -120 juice on the under tomorrow. I'm locking in the under now for 1.5x before the juice kicks in. Good luck.

Play #2

Dodgers/Cardinals under (7)(+100) 1.5x (Locked)

I am backing Eovoldi one more time. He has come through for me three times in a row supporting him on the under, so why not four. His advanced stats aren't overwhelming, but solid nonetheless. Carpenter is having another solid season and has improved month to month. This guy is a workhorse that pitches better as the playoffs near. Just like in the Detroit/TB game, Carpenter has pitched very well against the Dodgers lineup and I think he limits them tomorrow. Busch Stadium is also more of a pitchers park and I think that helps us a bit where Eovoldi has trouble keeping the ball on the ground. I think the fact that the Cardinals have never faced Eovoldi, gives him the advantage because adjustments cannot be made. I don't see this one going to 7.5 and expect the juice to switch from the over to the under sometime before the game. I'm rolling with the under for 1.5x.

No more plays. Card is final. I'll ride out the Detroit/TB under and LAD/StL under and work on tomorrow's card. The line never got to 7.5 in that LAD total and Pinny held at -117 juice while Matchbook held at -112, despite 69% on the over. I believe the ump is Cousins which isn't too bad...he has a strike rate at 63% with no o/u lean. The Dodgers lineup is one of their best in awhile with Either, Loney and Kemp together again, but I love Carpenter in this spot. His team desperately needs a win. I have this one at 6.3, right behind the Tigers/TB total at 6. I played them both for 1.5x because I think the Cards unfamiliarity with Eovoldi will help him. The wind is blowing across the field, so that should help a bit. Good luck tonight

[Redscot]

Let's get these unders! Raining like a mofo here but all well. What isn't so well is my Pitt under in the first game. 7 runs after the 7th! Ouch. GL tonight all.

[Love The Action]

Let's get these unders! Raining like a mofo here but all well. What isn't so well is my Pitt under in the first game. 7 runs after the 7th! Ouch. GL tonight all.

Glad you didn't get hit with the bad stuff.

We pushed on the Tigers under after another bullpen collapse as Cruze and Valverde combine to give up two solo home runs in the last inning to force the push...four runs in the last two innings. Over 17x now, these bullpens have cost us in the last 10 days.

What do you think about Colon tomorrow? Can we trust him for a 9.5 under? I'm leaning that way....thoughts?

[Redscot]

Glad you didn't get hit with the bad stuff.

We pushed on the Tigers under after another bullpen collapse as Cruze and Valverde combine to give up two solo home runs in the last inning to force the push...four runs in the last two innings. Over 17x now, these bullpens have cost us in the last 10 days.

What do you think about Colon tomorrow? Can we trust him for a 9.5 under? I'm leaning that way....thoughts?

Thanks bro. Man this BP stuff is getting out of hand, seriously. Got burned in the early Pitt game too.

I am a little dubious about Bartolo lately to be honest. He ain't missing many bats. He came into this season armed with a new 2 seamer and I think the league has caught up. However I do think he is more than capable of giving 6 of 3 run ball. I think Mccarthy's performance will make or break it.

Last month AL offense:

http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&lg=al&stats=bat&type=1&season=2011&month=3&season1=2011

Ump may be of importance in this one..

Looks like it would take the mother of all bad beats to lose this Cards game..so a positive night seems to be in order.

[Love The Action]

Thanks bro. Man this BP stuff is getting out of hand, seriously. Got burned in the early Pitt game too.

I am a little dubious about Bartolo lately to be honest. He ain't missing many bats. He came into this season armed with a new 2 seamer and I think the league has caught up. However I do think he is more than capable of giving 6 of 3 run ball.

Last month AL offense:

http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&lg=al&stats=bat&type=1&season=2011&month=3&season1=2011

Ump may be of importance in this one..

Looks like it would take the mother of all bad beats to lose this Cards game..so a positive night seems to be in order.

Sorry about that Mil/Pit under...unreal all the runs at the end there...

Yeah, there's no doubt Oakland has been hitting over their heads for the last month. They hit like 26 of 28 for the over after the all star break. However, they have now gone three in a row for the under against the Blue Jays of all teams (two of which I lost on the over). I think the regression for this offense may have begun. I have this game at 8.5, so I have some value here at 9.5. I agree, I wish I had the ump info...won't have that till tomorrow and I don't want to lose the half run in case the sharps hit the under early. We'll see, not sure about this one yet. Colon has given up a .811 OPS against the A's and McCarthy has given up a .891 OPS against the Yanks. Short porch in right, against an all lefty lineup. Lots of pros and cons with this one....

[Redscot]

Yup, Oakland needs to come back to earth offensively, no doubt. I added in my other post that I think it will be McCarthy that makes or breaks the under not Colon. I expect Colon to give a "quality start". A full run in your model, I'm gonna put a .5 unit on it myself now personally. I'll see what fleshes out tomorrow to see if I go harder.

Nice hit on the Cards man, good start to the week.

[blackeyeshamus]

thanks for the solid under wagers, LTA.
I hit each one for a unit, and a two total parlay to win one unit (Bodog).
unfortunately, I pissed away two units on minny, one on boston, and
had a PHI/COL/MIL parlay for one unit @ the local bookshop. ouch!
only cashed the nats and brew crew game one @ the local.
anyway, that's all. thanks for the awesome work, LTA.
I should follow your picks more often, because my bright ideas
are costing me money right now. hahaha thanks, again.

[Love The Action]

Yup, Oakland needs to come back to earth offensively, no doubt. I added in my other post that I think it will be McCarthy that makes or breaks the under not Colon. I expect Colon to give a "quality start". A full run in your model, I'm gonna put a .5 unit on it myself now personally. I'll see what fleshes out tomorrow to see if I go harder.

Nice hit on the Cards man, good start to the week.

Still need to mull that Oakland/NY game over a bit. I need to think we get a quality starts out of both pitchers and I tend to agree with you that McCarthy may be the bigger worry here.

[Love The Action]

thanks for the solid under wagers, LTA.
I hit each one for a unit, and a two total parlay to win one unit (Bodog).
unfortunately, I pissed away two units on minny, one on boston, and
had a PHI/COL/MIL parlay for one unit @ the local bookshop. ouch!
only cashed the nats and brew crew game one @ the local.
anyway, that's all. thanks for the awesome work, LTA.
I should follow your picks more often, because my bright ideas
are costing me money right now. hahaha thanks, again.

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 8/22/11

1 - 0 - 1 = +1.5x

Another bullpen collapst by Valverde costs us the win and a 2-0 +3x day. We'll definitely take the LAD under winner and the push and move onto tomorrow.

MLB Season 2011

353 - 319 = +29.86x

Gearing up for Tuesday...GL.

[gunnersgun]

I've been refreshing this thread every 5 minutes, I need to know what to bet tomorrow LTA. what do you think about the dodgers/cards under for FF (a lot of my game unders have been getting screwed over in the 7-9th so figure i may as well do FF which has always stayed under the allotted amount).

Also thinking about Phils runline, phils have disappointed me a lot lately but worley+phils+home+fade the mets seems to point to taking the rl, thoughts?

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/23/11

Play #1

AZ/Washington under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Zimmerman is still under his innings cap and should have free reign in this one. Kennedy had his day shortened by rain and a collision with his third basemen in his last start. He is rested and ready to pitch well. Both players have a WAR rating over 3 with solid advanced stats that establish both as up and coming starters to keep an eye on. Both teams are struggling with the bats and the ump Hudson has a neutral lean throughout his career, but a strike rate over 63.4%. I have this one at 6.6 and I'm rolling with the under here for 1x, but may add a half unit after we can confirm the weather tomorrow and a few other things I'm looking into.

Play #2

Cincy/FL under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Nolasco has struggled in his last start and against the Reds. However, in a weird way, that is why I also like this play. I looked back throughout his career, however, wherever Cueto has gotten lit up for 5 runs or more in one outting, he generally bounces back with a performance for 3 runs or less. I expect the same tomorrow at home in Florida where his splits show an advantage so far this year. Nolasco should be fresh and ready to go. On the other side, even though I expect some regression from Cueto this year as I have stated in the past, I am backing him here on the under. He pitched 8 great innings last time out and only had about 100 pitches, so he's not a tired guy. The Marlins lineup is just not hitting right now and this play is an indictment on that lineup as much as it's in support of Cueto. I won't bother going through all the advanced stats, but both pitchers are very solid with strong predictors of future success. I would like to see the ump here, but I expect this to move towards heavy juice and maybe go down to 7 by tomorrow afternoon. I have this one at 6.85 and rolling with the under for 1x before the line starts to drop tomorrow morning.

Play #3

Padres/Giants under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Yes I know Cain is like 5-10 against the Padres in his career. However, if you look at the stats he has put up against them, it is clear he was not the reason for the losses. Cain has limited the Padres to a weak BAA under .200 and OPS at .610 against these Padres hitters. That does not deserve such a poor record. On the other side, Latos has held the Giants lineup to a .663 OPS, but most of the guys that have hit Latos well are out of the lineup because of injury. Both pitchers have big value to their teams as evidenced by Cain's 4.2 WAR and Latos at 2.3, however, both are also right at a 3.5 SIERA which is very solid. Despite the Padres recent over streak, a lot of those occurred because of poor bullpen play. The Padres bullpen has killed me over the last 10 days, yet I go back to the well once more. If they blow it again, I will not say a word because I make this play fully cognizant of the bullpen meltdowns. I have this one at 5.4, so I have to give it a shot. Neither team is an offensive juggernaut and I expect this one to stay under the posted total for 1x.

Play #4

Braves ML (-131) 1x (Locked)

I toyed with jumping on the -1 RL here, but thought I would eat the road juice just to be safe. At the end of the day, I expect a Braves rout tomorrow. Minor has pitched very well as evidenced by a WAR value of 1.7. His FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all check in at mid to high 3's. However, on the side, Colemen has given the Cubs some much needed innings but has not pitched well. Minor has a +1 differential advantage in the aforementioned categories and, even though the Cubs have a solid BA and OBP against lefties as a team, they are 14-19 w/l versus southpaws. I have this one at -143 for the Braves in this spot so I think we are getting quite a bit of value at -131. I would be shocked to see RLM on this play, but you never know. Nevertheless, I expect this one to close at -140 or more. I think Minor gives us a quality start and the Braves chase Coleman out by the 5th, so I'm rolling with the Braves ML for 1x.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/23/11

Play #1

AZ/Washington under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Zimmerman is still under his innings cap and should have free reign in this one. Kennedy had his day shortened by rain and a collision with his third basemen in his last start. He is rested and ready to pitch well. Both players have a WAR rating over 3 with solid advanced stats that establish both as up and coming starters to keep an eye on. Both teams are struggling with the bats and the ump Hudson has a neutral lean throughout his career, but a strike rate over 63.4%. I have this one at 6.6 and I'm rolling with the under here for 1x, but may add a half unit after we can confirm the weather tomorrow and a few other things I'm looking into.

Play #2

Cincy/FL under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Nolasco has struggled in his last start and against the Reds. However, in a weird way, that is why I also like this play. I looked back throughout his career, however, wherever Cueto has gotten lit up for 5 runs or more in one outting, he generally bounces back with a performance for 3 runs or less. I expect the same tomorrow at home in Florida where his splits show an advantage so far this year. Nolasco should be fresh and ready to go. On the other side, even though I expect some regression from Cueto this year as I have stated in the past, I am backing him here on the under. He pitched 8 great innings last time out and only had about 100 pitches, so he's not a tired guy. The Marlins lineup is just not hitting right now and this play is an indictment on that lineup as much as it's in support of Cueto. I won't bother going through all the advanced stats, but both pitchers are very solid with strong predictors of future success. I would like to see the ump here, but I expect this to move towards heavy juice and maybe go down to 7 by tomorrow afternoon. I have this one at 6.85 and rolling with the under for 1x before the line starts to drop tomorrow morning.

Play #3

Padres/Giants under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Yes I know Cain is like 5-10 against the Padres in his career. However, if you look at the stats he has put up against them, it is clear he was not the reason for the losses. Cain has limited the Padres to a weak BAA under .200 and OPS at .610 against these Padres hitters. That does not deserve such a poor record. On the other side, Latos has held the Giants lineup to a .663 OPS, but most of the guys that have hit Latos well are out of the lineup because of injury. Both pitchers have big value to their teams as evidenced by Cain's 4.2 WAR and Latos at 2.3, however, both are also right at a 3.5 SIERA which is very solid. Despite the Padres recent over streak, a lot of those occurred because of poor bullpen play. The Padres bullpen has killed me over the last 10 days, yet I go back to the well once more. If they blow it again, I will not say a word because I make this play fully cognizant of the bullpen meltdowns. I have this one at 5.4, so I have to give it a shot. Neither team is an offensive juggernaut and I expect this one to stay under the posted total for 1x.

Play #4

Braves ML (-131) 1x (Locked)

I toyed with jumping on the -1 RL here, but thought I would eat the road juice just to be safe. At the end of the day, I expect a Braves rout tomorrow. Minor has pitched very well as evidenced by a WAR value of 1.7. His FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all check in at mid to high 3's. However, on the side, Colemen has given the Cubs some much needed innings but has not pitched well. Minor has a +1 differential advantage in the aforementioned categories and, even though the Cubs have a solid BA and OBP against lefties as a team, they are 14-19 w/l versus southpaws. I have this one at -143 for the Braves in this spot so I think we are getting quite a bit of value at -131. I would be shocked to see RLM on this play, but you never know. Nevertheless, I expect this one to close at -140 or more. I think Minor gives us a quality start and the Braves chase Coleman out by the 5th, so I'm rolling with the Braves ML for 1x.

Play #5

Dodgers/Cardinals under (7)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I decided to jump on this one now once I saw Pinny make a move on the under. Kershaw has top 5 MLB type stuff and his poor history against Pujols and Cards does not concern me because they are just not hitting right now. On other side, Lohse is the Cards second most valuable starter behind Carp as evidenced by his 1.7 WAR. Lohse has dominated this Dodgers lineup throughout his career and I think he does it again on Tuesday. Neither of these two teams is hitting right now and I think this one has a good chance to get to 6.5 sometime tomorrow. The ump is Wolf, one of the better under umps historically and he is carrying a 63.5% strike rate this year. I think we see back-to-back unders to start off this series and I am backing it on Tuesday for 1x.

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/23/11

Play #1

AZ/Washington under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Zimmerman is still under his innings cap and should have free reign in this one. Kennedy had his day shortened by rain and a collision with his third basemen in his last start. He is rested and ready to pitch well. Both players have a WAR rating over 3 with solid advanced stats that establish both as up and coming starters to keep an eye on. Both teams are struggling with the bats and the ump Hudson has a neutral lean throughout his career, but a strike rate over 63.4%. I have this one at 6.6 and I'm rolling with the under here for 1x, but may add a half unit after we can confirm the weather tomorrow and a few other things I'm looking into.

Play #2

Cincy/FL under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Nolasco has struggled in his last start and against the Reds. However, in a weird way, that is why I also like this play. I looked back throughout his career, however, wherever Cueto has gotten lit up for 5 runs or more in one outting, he generally bounces back with a performance for 3 runs or less. I expect the same tomorrow at home in Florida where his splits show an advantage so far this year. Nolasco should be fresh and ready to go. On the other side, even though I expect some regression from Cueto this year as I have stated in the past, I am backing him here on the under. He pitched 8 great innings last time out and only had about 100 pitches, so he's not a tired guy. The Marlins lineup is just not hitting right now and this play is an indictment on that lineup as much as it's in support of Cueto. I won't bother going through all the advanced stats, but both pitchers are very solid with strong predictors of future success. I would like to see the ump here, but I expect this to move towards heavy juice and maybe go down to 7 by tomorrow afternoon. I have this one at 6.85 and rolling with the under for 1x before the line starts to drop tomorrow morning.

Play #3

Padres/Giants under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Yes I know Cain is like 5-10 against the Padres in his career. However, if you look at the stats he has put up against them, it is clear he was not the reason for the losses. Cain has limited the Padres to a weak BAA under .200 and OPS at .610 against these Padres hitters. That does not deserve such a poor record. On the other side, Latos has held the Giants lineup to a .663 OPS, but most of the guys that have hit Latos well are out of the lineup because of injury. Both pitchers have big value to their teams as evidenced by Cain's 4.2 WAR and Latos at 2.3, however, both are also right at a 3.5 SIERA which is very solid. Despite the Padres recent over streak, a lot of those occurred because of poor bullpen play. The Padres bullpen has killed me over the last 10 days, yet I go back to the well once more. If they blow it again, I will not say a word because I make this play fully cognizant of the bullpen meltdowns. I have this one at 5.4, so I have to give it a shot. Neither team is an offensive juggernaut and I expect this one to stay under the posted total for 1x.

Play #4

Braves ML (-131) 1x (Locked)

I toyed with jumping on the -1 RL here, but thought I would eat the road juice just to be safe. At the end of the day, I expect a Braves rout tomorrow. Minor has pitched very well as evidenced by a WAR value of 1.7. His FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all check in at mid to high 3's. However, on the side, Colemen has given the Cubs some much needed innings but has not pitched well. Minor has a +1 differential advantage in the aforementioned categories and, even though the Cubs have a solid BA and OBP against lefties as a team, they are 14-19 w/l versus southpaws. I have this one at -143 for the Braves in this spot so I think we are getting quite a bit of value at -131. I would be shocked to see RLM on this play, but you never know. Nevertheless, I expect this one to close at -140 or more. I think Minor gives us a quality start and the Braves chase Coleman out by the 5th, so I'm rolling with the Braves ML for 1x.

Play #5

Dodgers/Cardinals under (7)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I decided to jump on this one now once I saw Pinny make a move on the under. Kershaw has top 5 MLB type stuff and his poor history against Pujols and Cards does not concern me because they are just not hitting right now. On other side, Lohse is the Cards second most valuable starter behind Carp as evidenced by his 1.7 WAR. Lohse has dominated this Dodgers lineup throughout his career and I think he does it again on Tuesday. Neither of these two teams is hitting right now and I think this one has a good chance to get to 6.5 sometime tomorrow. The ump is Wolf, one of the better under umps historically and he is carrying a 63.5% strike rate this year. I think we see back-to-back unders to start off this series and I am backing it on Tuesday for 1x.

That's it for tonight. Big card tomorrow and a few more to come. I like the Yankees under, but I'm not sure where that line will go so I'm going to wait it out. There are a few more plays I may make as well. I may also add 0.50x-1x to a few of the above plays, so we just have to keep an eye on the movement. However, I fully expect for our numbers above to beat all of the closers so we will need to be quick. Good luck

[Redscot]

That's it for tonight. Big card tomorrow and a few more to come. I like the Yankees under, but I'm not sure where that line will go so I'm going to wait it out. There are a few more plays I may make as well. I may also add 0.50x-1x to a few of the above plays, so we just have to keep an eye on the movement. However, I fully expect for our numbers above to beat all of the closers so we will need to be quick. Good luck

F+ck Yeah my man, nice to wake up and see this plentiful card. Love the looks of it first glance. You da hardest workin' capper in SBR LTA, always appreciate your efforts.

Now let me go see if my local put the lines in last night so I can jump these before line movement.

[Redscot]

Still need to mull that Oakland/NY game over a bit. I need to think we get a quality starts out of both pitchers and I tend to agree with you that McCarthy may be the bigger worry here.

This is the thing. Colon at -200, tells me somebody expects the Yanks to put up a bundle of runs imo. Locked in 3 of the unders, unfortunately my braves line is at -145, gonna wait and see, if it doesn't come down may resort to the -1 RL. Holding on the SF under as well to see if I can lessen the juice.

[Love The Action]

This is the thing. Colon at -200, tells me somebody expects the Yanks to put up a bundle of runs imo. Locked in 3 of the unders, unfortunately my braves line is at -145, gonna wait and see, if it doesn't come down may resort to the -1 RL. Holding on the SF under as well to see if I can lessen the juice.

-1RL for Bravos looks good. I thought about that myself but I got a decent opening price. Only drawback is cubs surging offense...

Good luck in whatever you play today. Out of curiosity, what is your line on the giants under. Everywhere I see has even or plus odds on the under 6. Are getting juiced on the under 6 or 6.5?

Good luck

[Redscot]

-1RL for Bravos looks good. I thought about that myself but I got a decent opening price. Only drawback is cubs surging offense...

Good luck in whatever you play today. Out of curiosity, what is your line on the giants under. Everywhere I see has even or plus odds on the under 6. Are getting juiced on the under 6 or 6.5?

Good luck

You know my local is a bit erratic , he has it a flat -110 O or U 6 atm. When he updates at 11 it should probably improve, hence my patience.

You tempted on the Muts today?

[Love The Action]

You know my local is a bit erratic , he has it a flat -110 O or U 6 atm. When he updates at 11 it should probably improve, hence my patience.

You tempted on the Muts today?

Unfortunately, yes

I like Niese here, but that's about it. However, with Rollins out, perhaps your muts get it done. I gotta mull that one over....a lot! Anyway, I'm off for work. Have a good one. I'll check back later. BOL.

[Redscot]

Kinda tempted to go with SD in that game. Also, what are your thoughts on KC under? I think Morrow sets up well vs. this free swinging KC team, and Toronto bats have hardly seen Chen. Ump may be important here too......

[Love The Action]

MLB 8/23/11

Play #1

AZ/Washington under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Zimmerman is still under his innings cap and should have free reign in this one. Kennedy had his day shortened by rain and a collision with his third basemen in his last start. He is rested and ready to pitch well. Both players have a WAR rating over 3 with solid advanced stats that establish both as up and coming starters to keep an eye on. Both teams are struggling with the bats and the ump Hudson has a neutral lean throughout his career, but a strike rate over 63.4%. I have this one at 6.6 and I'm rolling with the under here for 1x, but may add a half unit after we can confirm the weather tomorrow and a few other things I'm looking into.

Play #2

Cincy/FL under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Nolasco has struggled in his last start and against the Reds. However, in a weird way, that is why I also like this play. I looked back throughout his career, however, wherever Cueto has gotten lit up for 5 runs or more in one outting, he generally bounces back with a performance for 3 runs or less. I expect the same tomorrow at home in Florida where his splits show an advantage so far this year. Nolasco should be fresh and ready to go. On the other side, even though I expect some regression from Cueto this year as I have stated in the past, I am backing him here on the under. He pitched 8 great innings last time out and only had about 100 pitches, so he's not a tired guy. The Marlins lineup is just not hitting right now and this play is an indictment on that lineup as much as it's in support of Cueto. I won't bother going through all the advanced stats, but both pitchers are very solid with strong predictors of future success. I would like to see the ump here, but I expect this to move towards heavy juice and maybe go down to 7 by tomorrow afternoon. I have this one at 6.85 and rolling with the under for 1x before the line starts to drop tomorrow morning.

Play #3

Padres/Giants under (6)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Yes I know Cain is like 5-10 against the Padres in his career. However, if you look at the stats he has put up against them, it is clear he was not the reason for the losses. Cain has limited the Padres to a weak BAA under .200 and OPS at .610 against these Padres hitters. That does not deserve such a poor record. On the other side, Latos has held the Giants lineup to a .663 OPS, but most of the guys that have hit Latos well are out of the lineup because of injury. Both pitchers have big value to their teams as evidenced by Cain's 4.2 WAR and Latos at 2.3, however, both are also right at a 3.5 SIERA which is very solid. Despite the Padres recent over streak, a lot of those occurred because of poor bullpen play. The Padres bullpen has killed me over the last 10 days, yet I go back to the well once more. If they blow it again, I will not say a word because I make this play fully cognizant of the bullpen meltdowns. I have this one at 5.4, so I have to give it a shot. Neither team is an offensive juggernaut and I expect this one to stay under the posted total for 1x.

Play #4

Braves ML (-131) 1x (Locked)

I toyed with jumping on the -1 RL here, but thought I would eat the road juice just to be safe. At the end of the day, I expect a Braves rout tomorrow. Minor has pitched very well as evidenced by a WAR value of 1.7. His FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA all check in at mid to high 3's. However, on the side, Colemen has given the Cubs some much needed innings but has not pitched well. Minor has a +1 differential advantage in the aforementioned categories and, even though the Cubs have a solid BA and OBP against lefties as a team, they are 14-19 w/l versus southpaws. I have this one at -143 for the Braves in this spot so I think we are getting quite a bit of value at -131. I would be shocked to see RLM on this play, but you never know. Nevertheless, I expect this one to close at -140 or more. I think Minor gives us a quality start and the Braves chase Coleman out by the 5th, so I'm rolling with the Braves ML for 1x.

Play #5

Dodgers/Cardinals under (7)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I decided to jump on this one now once I saw Pinny make a move on the under. Kershaw has top 5 MLB type stuff and his poor history against Pujols and Cards does not concern me because they are just not hitting right now. On other side, Lohse is the Cards second most valuable starter behind Carp as evidenced by his 1.7 WAR. Lohse has dominated this Dodgers lineup throughout his career and I think he does it again on Tuesday. Neither of these two teams is hitting right now and I think this one has a good chance to get to 6.5 sometime tomorrow. The ump is Wolf, one of the better under umps historically and he is carrying a 63.5% strike rate this year. I think we see back-to-back unders to start off this series and I am backing it on Tuesday for 1x.

Play #6

Oakland/NYY under (9)(+100) 1x (Locked)

We got the RLM on this play as expected and I would rather risk the push on a total of 9 at plus odds than pay -120 juice at 9.5. Even though I have this one at 8.5, I worry about both SP's in this one as they both have poor histories against the opposing lineups. Nevertheless, I like how McCarthy has been pitching and his season numbers are really solid, while Colon is having a boune back year after rededicating himself to the game. I expect Oakland's offense to regress after the recent over streak and I think McCarthy can put up a quality start today. I generally don't bet unders after the line drops, but in this case I think it makes sense. We have solid RLM and baseball factors supporting this play and I'm rolling with the under for 1x.

[Love The Action]

Kinda tempted to go with SD in that game. Also, what are your thoughts on KC under? I think Morrow sets up well vs. this free swinging KC team, and Toronto bats have hardly seen Chen. Ump may be important here too......

No lean for me on the Giants side. Hard for me to go against Cain and his bad history against the Padres doesn't necessarily apply to this Padres lineup. He has pitched well against this lineup as noted in my writeup.

I lean under in KC/Tor, but those are two good offenses and both pitchers are a but bit schitzo...

BOL

[guil0000]

any thoughts on sides in the Toronto/KC and Washington/Arizona games?