LTA's MLB Plays

**taxe91** · 06-11-12, 09:53 PM

He's got the highest BABIP of any qualified pitcher in the MLB. But you don't believe in that statistic so I'm not sure how else to explain it.

**whtsox13** · 06-11-12, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

Well, 5 vs 7 isn't a huge difference -

?WTF?

**Redscot** · 06-11-12, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by taxe91

He's got the highest BABIP of any qualified pitcher in the MLB. But you don't believe in that statistic so I'm not sure how else to explain it.

Good point, and further exacerbated by a lamp post at 1st and 3rd. Peralta is sure handed but also lacks range at ss. Detroit's infield is a babip time bomb!

**taxe91** · 06-11-12, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Good point, and further exacerbated by a lamp post at 1st and 3rd. Peralta is sure handed but also lacks range at ss. Detroit's infield is a babip time bomb!

Definitely, I don't know the stats on it but I'm sure they have given up some of the most infield hits in the majors. Unless they're being charged as errors, because they have botched a lot of routine plays.

**brahmabull117** · 06-11-12, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by taxe91

He's got the highest BABIP of any qualified pitcher in the MLB. But you don't believe in that statistic so I'm not sure how else to explain it.

It's not that I don't believe in it. I'm just not a 100% believer in it. I've always thought that having a high K to BB ratio was very very important (minimizing contact and avoiding giving out free walks), but a pitcher with bad control inside the strike zone will induce a lot of quality contact. I just can't back something that states that the contact induced by say Gregg Maddux and Brian Matusz will have the same results

Still, it's very strange to see somebody giving up so many hits on such little contact

**Love The Action** · 06-12-12, 06:25 AM

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/11/2012 Recap

1 - 1 = +0.50x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

150 - 145 - 21 = +2.08x

Good luck on Tuesday.

**Love The Action** · 06-12-12, 06:30 AM

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/12/2012

Play #1

Red Sox/Marlins over (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Tigers ML (-120) 1x (Locked)

These are plays I locked in last night and didn't feel like posting from my phone because my wifi was down. They are about 5 cents more expensive right now but still very playable. I have the Tigers set at -139 and the Marlins total at 9.48. Good luck.

**taxe91** · 06-12-12, 06:31 AM

Looking forward to what you've got in play today with a full card of games, LTA. Would you think that the Tigers' struggles against leftys and the Cubs success against rightys warrants no play on the Detroit game? My book is still yet to release odds for the run line in that game so even if I wanted to I'm not able to play the -1RL that I'm leaning towards.

edit: looks like you had read my mind on the tigers play, always encouraging to see I'm on the right train of thought.

**eleuropeano** · 06-12-12, 06:40 AM

I just quickly scanned through 249 pages of some exceptional betting work. I think your long term success speaks enough for you betting skills, but I think what makes your work truly great LTA, is that you take the time to share it.

**Love The Action** · 06-12-12, 07:07 AM

Originally posted by taxe91

Looking forward to what you've got in play today with a full card of games, LTA. Would you think that the Tigers' struggles against leftys and the Cubs success against rightys warrants no play on the Detroit game? My book is still yet to release odds for the run line in that game so even if I wanted to I'm not able to play the -1RL that I'm leaning towards.

edit: looks like you had read my mind on the tigers play, always encouraging to see I'm on the right train of thought.

The tiger troubles against lefties are a bit worrisome, but not enough to keep me off this play with so much value. I suppose this could be the dreaded "trap" game, but I'll take a shot with such a strong advantage pretty much across the board at a good price. GL

**Love The Action** · 06-12-12, 07:07 AM

Originally posted by eleuropeano

I just quickly scanned through 249 pages of some exceptional betting work. I think your long term success speaks enough for you betting skills, but I think what makes your work truly great LTA, is that you take the time to share it.

**guil0000** · 06-12-12, 07:37 AM

There are a few good looking dogs today with excellent pitchers getting huge odds. Norris, Kennedy and even Lincoln and the red hot Pirates

**taxe91** · 06-12-12, 08:00 AM

LTA, How much significance do you give to a pitcher's recent starts when you evaluate them through your model? I ask because I noticed you've taken the over in the Sox game and from recollection you took the over in Buchholz's last start as well. I read a lot of Sox news (they're the team I follow) and it's been noted that he's finally got control of his change-up now and that he's developing a sinker fastball with the help of Beckett too (he threw it twice in one of his recent starts).
All that being said he's got himself a 1.50 ERA in his last 3 starts but I'm asking if the 9 terrible starts before his most recent 3 should hold more significance when 'valuing' a pitcher in a situation like he is currently in (off to a poor start, showing signs of improvement). There's a few other starters out there that have started off terribly but showed promise in recent starts so it's hard to recognise which ones to trust.
Regardless, as a Sox fan I'll be rooting for a 9-0 win to Boston. GL

**Redscot** · 06-12-12, 08:08 AM

Originally posted by guil0000

There are a few good looking dogs today with excellent pitchers getting huge odds. Norris, Kennedy and even Lincoln and the red hot Pirates

Agreed. The Kennedy play is almost an auto play at that number as far as I am concerned. I wonder if there is the wind-tunnel in effect there, that could play a big role, both these guys give up a high % of FB's, but Lewis especially.

I am not a huge Norris fan, but, I agree that getting +165-ish on the Stros, whose offense has been putting up some runs last couple of weeks, is tempting. Only sticky point is the Stros dreadful wrc+ against LHP (which I really don't get because the majority of their meaningful batters are right handed.)

Lincoln gives me the most pause. Although the Orioles bats have been in a major funk lately, not drawing walks and striking out in epic proportions, Lincoln has been a reliever for a reason. 2 pitch pitchers generally have success one time through the lineup. Once guys see him and 2nd and 3rd time he is much easier to time. He is still being stretched out too, they are going to have to use up some middle relief most likely.

Just taking a look at the card myself here....GL today

**guil0000** · 06-12-12, 08:16 AM

Originally posted by taxe91

LTA, How much significance do you give to a pitcher's recent starts when you evaluate them through your model? I ask because I noticed you've taken the over in the Sox game and from recollection you took the over in Buchholz's last start as well. I read a lot of Sox news (they're the team I follow) and it's been noted that he's finally got control of his change-up now and that he's developing a sinker fastball with the help of Beckett too (he threw it twice in one of his recent starts).
All that being said he's got himself a 1.50 ERA in his last 3 starts but I'm asking if the 9 terrible starts before his most recent 3 should hold more significance when 'valuing' a pitcher in a situation like he is currently in (off to a poor start, showing signs of improvement). There's a few other starters out there that have started off terribly but showed promise in recent starts so it's hard to recognise which ones to trust.
Regardless, as a Sox fan I'll be rooting for a 9-0 win to Boston. GL

I agree with Buchholz looking good lately but the key to this over imo is the complete game he threw last game with 125 pitches. I love this spot to back the Over next game or the opposing team. No way am I backing Buehrle against the Sox so Over is definitely the best play imo. Buchholz is a guy to keep an eye on for the future thought, I'm interested in him.

**guil0000** · 06-12-12, 08:20 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Agreed. The Kennedy play is almost an auto play at that number as far as I am concerned. I wonder if there is the wind-tunnel in effect there, that could play a big role, both these guys give up a high % of FB's, but Lewis especially.

I am not a huge Norris fan, but, I agree that getting +165-ish on the Stros, whose offense has been putting up some runs last couple of weeks, is tempting. Only sticky point is the Stros dreadful wrc+ against LHP (which I really don't get because the majority of their meaningful batters are right handed.)

Lincoln gives me the most pause. Although the Orioles bats have been in a major funk lately, not drawing walks and striking out in epic proportions, Lincoln has been a reliever for a reason. 2 pitch pitchers generally have success one time through the lineup. Once guys see him and 2nd and 3rd time he is much easier to time. He is still being stretched out too, they are going to have to use up some middle relief most likely.

Just taking a look at the card myself here....GL today

Great stuff Red. I did see that the Astros are bad against lefties and it's the only reason I am not yet on them. I will probably try my luck with the DBacks. It's not like Texas are killing it lately and Ogando out of relief puts a big blow on them.

BOL to you too tonight!

**Redscot** · 06-12-12, 08:24 AM

Huge pitching disparity in K.C. Yeah, yeah, I know, Greinke on the road...yet and still his xfip and Siera on the road still remain under 3 over the last year +. Mendoza pitches to contact and the BrewCrew lineup has far outperformed the Royals over the last month. May be a -1 R/L there............

I am tempted to ride the Angels until they cool off, but am afraid the value has already been sucked out of that one.

**taxe91** · 06-12-12, 08:24 AM

Originally posted by guil0000

I agree with Buchholz looking good lately but the key to this over imo is the complete game he threw last game with 125 pitches. I love this spot to back the Over next game or the opposing team. No way am I backing Buehrle against the Sox so Over is definitely the best play imo. Buchholz is a guy to keep an eye on for the future thought, I'm interested in him.

Thats a good point actually, I even thought when I watched that game that Bobby V shouldn't have let him pitch the 9th when the game was safe and he was already over 110 pitches. Interesting to see how he responds today

edit: Yeah Red my book has literally taken 10 cents off the Angels within the past 60 minutes. Williams has the better numbers out of the two pitchers and the Angels the better lineup obviously, I didn't play it myself because I simply didn't want to get caught if this 10 road game winning streak gets snapped. In an ideal world they'll lose today and we'll get a tonne of value with CJ Wilson going for them tomorrow!

**Redscot** · 06-12-12, 08:48 AM

The Nat's continue to get no respect. How will this play out tonight....the Nat's have the highest swinging strike % as a lineup, clocking in at 11.5 %...whilst Alvarez ranks 3rd worst in all of MLB in getting swinging strikes 3.8....

Of course Wang is nothing to write grandma about himself, also pitching to a very high % of contact.....

**Primet76** · 06-12-12, 09:38 AM

Missed on the Sox/Marlins over which is at 8.5 now at my local. I'm on the Brew Crew -1 RL.

I hear ya about Wang, Red - but with that hard sinker and inability to miss bats, Wang should want more contact to induce those GBs.

**Redscot** · 06-12-12, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by Primet76

Missed on the Sox/Marlins over which is at 8.5 now at my local. I'm on the Brew Crew -1 RL.

I hear ya about Wang, Red - but with that hard sinker and inability to miss bats, Wang should want more contact to induce those GBs.

This is very true, Alvarez even more so. There is a lot to be said to pitching to contact. There are times however when you need to be able to miss bats, can't have guys feeling to comfortable up there. A predominant GB % pitcher can get away with a lower singing strike %, but the successful ones generally have a % in the 7 range or higher. Wang's best years he was in that range.

edit: Another problem sinker pitchers face is the low quadrant of the strike zone is the toughest spot to get called strikes. Called strike rate on in-zone pitches taken on low pitches is 68.6 % compared to 95.3 in the middle and 74.3 in the high portion.

**brahmabull117** · 06-12-12, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by guil0000

There are a few good looking dogs today with excellent pitchers getting huge odds. Norris, Kennedy and even Lincoln and the red hot Pirates

I don't usually bet dogs too much but 2 of those 3 will win I think. Kennnedy and Lincoln are especially good picks as Arizona and Pittsburg are hot and baltimore is a fraud

**brahmabull117** · 06-12-12, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

edit: Another problem sinker pitchers face is the low quadrant of the strike zone is the toughest spot to get called strikes. Called strike rate on in-zone pitches taken on low pitches is 68.6 % compared to 95.3 in the middle and 74.3 in the high portion.

This is very true. It's because umpires give up on those curveballs and splitters that end up in the dirt when many of them are actually strikes

**Primet76** · 06-12-12, 10:38 AM

Agreed, in fact, the book on Wang toward the end of his Yankee tenure was to take the sinker hoping it would drop out of the zone. I recall this strategy being successful as he would be forced to come in with his secondary pitches which were being tagged.

**Vinnie Paz** · 06-12-12, 10:52 AM

Brahma why do u not bet dogs???

**EXhoosier10** · 06-12-12, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

Brahma why do u not bet dogs???

**Love The Action** · 06-12-12, 11:46 AM

Sorry guys....very busy with work today and it looks like most of my leans like LAA And the rox over have already lost their value. Odd line movement in that rangers game. Still like few games though and might add to the card. I do not like the Pirates today for those wondering. Hard to back wang abd the nats but the over interests me. Be careful with Norris and the Astros as his hip flexor is a little banged up. Until he can show that is not bothering him I can't back him. With all the heavy faves, a ml parlay is not out of the equation. Unfortunately, I don't think we will see a dog party today and these favorites are priced high for a reason. Yanks and brewers both look good as does Seattle. Not a lot of time do will probably keep the card small. Good luck.

**brahmabull117** · 06-12-12, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

Brahma why do u not bet dogs???

bad experience taking dogs

I'm much better at reading favorites and overs

**No coincidences** · 06-12-12, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Be careful with Norris and the Astros as his hip flexor is a little banged up. Until he can show that is not bothering him I can't back him.

12 K's in 6 IP last time out.

**morningmoney** · 06-12-12, 02:02 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

12 K's in 6 IP last time out.

Norris is a badass. He had that forgettable outing in Col a few weeks ago (9 earned in 1.2) and a 7run/7inn game in April. Other than that he's been solid. Houston looks like a pick for me. Great thread, LTA. Thanks.

**Love The Action** · 06-12-12, 02:17 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

12 K's in 6 IP last time out.

And seven hits, two home runs and 4 earned runs in all. I think he might be feeling the injury just a bit and will wait to back him until I think he has had enough time to heal or shows me he is ready. Good luck with your decision.

**Vasco** · 06-12-12, 02:43 PM

I normally limit the ML parlays to 2 teams, but I don't mind getting 3.5 to 1 on a Brewers/Yanks/Seattle parlay. I think it's worth a 1 unit gamble as opposed to playing each individually on the -1 RL. Hopefully Greinke, Sabathia and Felix bring their A games.

**Duke Fan** · 06-12-12, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by Vasco

I normally limit the ML parlays to 2 teams, but I don't mind getting 3.5 to 1 on a Brewers/Yanks/Seattle parlay. I think it's worth a 1 unit gamble as opposed to playing each individually on the -1 RL. Hopefully Greinke, Sabathia and Felix bring their A games.

Good luck with Milwaukee. Their bullpen cost me over 2k Sunday when they blew a 6-2 lead in the ninth and failed to cover the -1.5 runline by winning 6-5.Cost me a six teamer as well as several threes and twos rolled with that six.

**meader99** · 06-12-12, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by Duke Fan

Good luck with Milwaukee. Their bullpen cost me over 2k Sunday when they blew a 6-2 lead in the ninth and failed to cover the -1.5 runline by winning 6-5.Cost me a six teamer as well as several threes and twos rolled with that six.

Better to leave Sunday back on Sunday and not bring it into future plays. If I stayed away from betting teams that screwed me, I'd have no teams left to wager on.

**Redscot** · 06-12-12, 05:37 PM

Originally posted by meader99

Better to leave Sunday back on Sunday and not bring it into future plays. If I stayed away from betting teams that screwed me, I'd have no teams left to wager on.

Ain't that the truth.