LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

keep pissing on Vogelsong though. the reality is that you should be pissed on

Keep trolling dork....it brings out the best in me and continually makes you look stupid. The best of both worlds

[BubbleTeaJelly]

the warren buffett of sports

[Redscot]

Nice day today my man . Dieing for some action on the Sunday night game, and despite looking at it 6 ways to Sunday, can't get an angle. I have dug DEEP! Just can't find any edge to justify a play , that is a rare instance for action Jackson over here.

[Love The Action]

Easy winner, never in doubt, except those from the peanut gallery.

haha **** all the trolls in here talking shit before the game was even over, great win lta

love those nice an easy winners like houst/chi over! thanks lta

Shaping up to be a good day LTA. I followed on the 4 unit. Nice work!

Solid success and congrats on a very good day!

Great day LTA! Congrats bud

the warren buffett of sports

Thank you gentlemen

[No coincidences]

Nice day today my man . Dieing for some action on the Sunday night game, and despite looking at it 6 ways to Sunday, can't get an angle. I have dug DEEP! Just can't find any edge to justify a play , that is a rare instance for action Jackson over here.

I like the Reds and kind of dig the under, though I think the total may wind up being a push. I see a 6-3 or 5-4 Cincy victory. Just hard to back Detroit given how taxed/bad their bullpen is, and Smyly's recent struggles.

[Love The Action]

Nice day today my man . Dieing for some action on the Sunday night game, and despite looking at it 6 ways to Sunday, can't get an angle. I have dug DEEP! Just can't find any edge to justify a play , that is a rare instance for action Jackson over here.

Agreed. I don't see an edge and will pass. I think Smyly is a solid youngster, but he is going up against the third best lineup against lefties. On the other hand, just not sure you can trust Bailey with that juice. My model says the total is accurate around 9 as I have 8.6. I'm going to pass and get ready for tomorrow.

[Redscot]

I like the Reds and kind of dig the under, though I think the total may wind up being a push. I see a 6-3 or 5-4 Cincy victory. Just hard to back Detroit given how taxed/bad their bullpen is, and Smyly's recent struggles.

I agree about the Tigers BP being taxed atm, that should definitely be a consideration. I guess gun to my head I'd go Cincy here, but I think this close to being a toss up game so wouldn't feel comfortable laying -120 +

[No coincidences]

I agree about the Tigers BP being taxed atm, that should definitely be a consideration. I guess gun to my head I'd go Cincy here, but I think this close to being a toss up game so wouldn't feel comfortable laying -120 +

I got it at -118. We'll see what happens.

Good luck if you play it Red.

[Catchn_Picks]

Congrats on your win on the over. Unfortunately, this post is almost a perfect illustration of why you are almost universally considered one of the biggest d-bag trolls on this website. Had you asked this question before the game started, I would have respected it and answered. Instead, you waited until Colorado was losing and your play on the over had won to come in here and "prop" yourself up.

Your rudimentary knowledge of baseball is exposed when you call Friedrich "a terrible Rockies pitcher" when in fact he is one of the best young lefties in the game this year with the numbers to back it up, despite pitching at the worst park for pitchers. Here ya go....stop looking at ERA and get a clue http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...942&position=P

Don't know what is true or not, especially on the net, but Mr. Bull has some haters of his own on another thread. Mr. Bull, I would not presume to take a position on your controversy with Mr. Rua because I have been falsely accused before but here is what he says about you.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/1757262-leans-6-10-2012-a.html

However, here's the thing, some tailers here really care about protecting this thread because it is smart, helpful and has some cool people who know their shit about baseball. After all of that information and betting you still gotta play the game. If you lose your selection, you are not stupid and if you win, you are not a genius. It is a process over a long period of time and plays. That is all it is.

At the end of the season we will know if we won or lost. This is a simple process. What I have observed is that those that are cool and try to help, even challenge LTA at times when appropriate, are roundly appreciated. Those who don't do not seem to last.

I'm a nobody here, it is LTA's thread, but that is my two cents anyway.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/1757262-leans-6-10-2012-a.html

[Redscot]

I got it at -118. We'll see what happens.

Good luck if you play it Red.

Laying off NoCo, but hope you hit bud

[Trivial]

Trivial, I have a book that has the worst lines for most of my plays and yet the account balance keeps going up. I have never added to it. I have another that has the best lines with low juice that I constantly struggle with.

No, it is just probability. The good book should do better over time.

I agree, it is weird and a bit frustrating at times.

Fully agree - but it isn't like I place 90% of my bets at Pinny and 10% at others. That would make sense then and I could explain the outcome.

There are lots of times where Bodog or others have a better line than Pinny, and therefore, I'll place almost (+/- 10%) of my bets equally everywhere.

Just weird.

Thanks man for replying. At least it isn't just me.

[Redscot]

Don't know what is true or not, especially on the net, but Mr. Bull has some haters of his own on another thread. Mr. Bull, I would not presume to take a position on your controversy with Mr. Rua because I have been falsely accused before but here is what he says about you.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/1757262-leans-6-10-2012-a.html

However, here's the thing, some tailers here really care about protecting this thread because it is smart, helpful and has some cool people who know their shit about baseball. After all of that information and betting you still gotta play the game. If you lose your selection, you are not stupid and if you win, you are not a genius. It is a process over a long period of time and plays. That is all it is.

At the end of the season we will know if we won or lost. This is a simple process. What I have observed is that those that are cool and try to help, even challenge LTA at times when appropriate, are roundly appreciated. Those who don't do not seem to last.

I'm a nobody here, it is LTA's thread, but that is my two cents anyway.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-b...10-2012-a.html

This is the key. Thing is people like to Monday morning QB too often. I use this thread amongst other things as a sounding board, today for instance I was eager to find a play in the Balty/Phils game but something told me to throw it out here and get some more educated opinions, end of day I laid off and saved myself a losing bet. LTA is always game for a good debate and a disagreement providing you come to the table with something to offer. On a human level, I have never run a thread here because I just couldn't bare to have people tail me and then lose. That shit eats at you, even if you are in no way responsible for others actions. One thing I think the "haters" forget, is when LTA has a bad day, a bad run, his pocket takes a hit, he plays within his limits but he plays aggressively. Not here to make excuses for him, but sometimes if you see a bit of a frustrated response from him after a bad beat, it's real world money he is playing with, and I know on another level he feels for the loyal followers who may have lost that day too.

[Trivial]

Hehe same here At pinny i had 30units 40 days ago and i busted account 5 days ago Overall i am up this period around 10 units.

For sure mainly is just variance. I place 30-40% of bets at pinny and when i dont bet is when i get better line at other books which is when pinny started juicing to much. So there must be sth. to that also.

Exactly my point - but I place equal bets everywhere. There is equally as many times where Pinny has the best line, and equally as many times when they don't. Therefore, I'm placing bets roughly equally. I have a mathematics minor degree in probability and statistics, so without sounding egotistical, I know this doesn't make sense, but neither does a lot of things in this business.

LOL.

Thanks for replying.

[Trivial]

Thank you gentlemen

I hate to say me too, but me too. Well done, and thank you. The drive home was more than pleasureable. :-)

[Catchn_Picks]

I hate to say me too, but me too. Well done, and thank you. The drive home was more than pleasureable. :-)

Trivial: Let's do this again!

[Love The Action]

I know it is superstition and what I am about to say has absolutely no ryhme or reason and cannot possibly be real over enough sample size. Also, I am a reasonable and sane person. But I have to vent, or at least ask people if anyone even remotely has a "luckier" sportsbook than others.

I have been keeping my own stats. I do far better at withdrawing from some vs. deposiiting more and more into others. For example, I only deposit and rarely withdraw from Pinny.

Trying to figure out why. I always go for the best value line as I learned from LTA.

How can it be that I do better or worse year after year with the same results in some sportsbooks. This is not just baseball, but NFL football which is where I do my most betting.

I only have withdrew from Pinny twice in 3 years while others I have placed 10+ withdrawals when my BR gets to a level that I want to secure my investments.

Anyone else keep stats like this?

I am starting to think of only placing wagers in winning sportsbooks. :-)

You've already answered your own question in your subsequent conversations. Pinny's lines are sharper and are harder to beat long term. When you bet "better numbers" at other books, it is because those numbers are soft compared to Pinny and you are more likely to cash those numbers than the sharp numbers at Pinny.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/10/2012 Recap

4 - 2 = +5.07x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

149 - 144 - 21 = +1.58x

Good luck on Monday.

[Trivial]

I suppose so, just seems counter intuitive, but I guess most probability is. :-)

[absolutkaos]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/10/2012 Recap

4 - 2 = +5.07x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

149 - 144 - 21 = +1.58x

Good luck on Monday.

Nice day today man.... I only rolled with you on the first 3 plays before I left the house for the day.... nice to get +6.25 units back for the good guys.... GL this week!

[brahmabull117]

Congrats on your win on the over. Unfortunately, this post is almost a perfect illustration of why you are almost universally considered one of the biggest d-bag trolls on this website. Had you asked this question before the game started, I would have respected it and answered. Instead, you waited until Colorado was losing and your play on the over had won to come in here and "prop" yourself up.

Your rudimentary knowledge of baseball is exposed when you call Friedrich "a terrible Rockies pitcher" when in fact he is one of the best young lefties in the game this year with the numbers to back it up, despite pitching at the worst park for pitchers. Here ya go....stop looking at ERA and get a clue http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...942&position=P

Uh he had given up 13 runs in 11 innings in 2 home starts before his game against teams that were far inferior to LAA and their red hot offense. Yea he might be a talented pitcher, but you have to learn how to pitch in that horrendous place of Coors Field

One of the best young lefties in the game now with a 1.63 WHIP and a 6 ERA


Bro why do you talk like you're actually good at this? a 52-53% winning percentage isn't jack sht when there are people on here who routinely hit as high as 58 to even 70 percent. You're barely above average. Come talk to me when you're at least close to 60%

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season

Play #1

Nationals/Blue Jays under (8)(+100) 1.5x (Locked)

Here we have two top level pitchers this year who are both in a groove. I am concerned that Morrow through 119 pitches in his complete game shutout of the CWS on June 6th, but he is accustomed to higher pitch counts both last year and this year. However, I'm not going to sweat it too much with the value provided by these starters. When you consider their WAR are both at or above 1.4, SIERA under 3.65 and K% over 20%, you can understand why my model loves this play. Washington is bottom 10 versus righties and Morrow will be hard one to hit around now that he seems becoming more consistent. Toronto is always a formidable lineup, but they have been cool of late until exploding for 12 runs against Atlanta. Nevertheless, I don't see that happening on Monday but it should help bring more over bettors to the window. I have this game set at 6.67 and it is going to take a final score of 9 to beat us. I think it stays below that number and I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Yankees ML (-109) 1.5x (Locked)

I love Nova in this matchup versus Delgado. Both guys have unfamiliarity working for them, but Delgado will have to face the #2 offense versus righties while Nova will be up against a middle-of-the-pack lineup against righties. New York comes in smoking hot with their offense seemingly firing on all cylinders. There is some concern as to who will be sitting under NL rules but regardless NY has more offensive weapons. I have the Yankees set at -122 giving us solid value on this play and I am rolling with the Yankees for 1.5x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Uh he had given up 13 runs in 11 innings in 2 home starts before his game against teams that were far inferior to LAA and their red hot offense. Yea he might be a talented pitcher, but you have to learn how to pitch in that horrendous place of Coors Field

One of the best young lefties in the game now with a 1.63 WHIP and a 6 ERA


Bro why do you talk like you're actually good at this? a 52-53% winning percentage isn't jack sht when there are people on here who routinely hit as high as 58 to even 70 percent. You're barely above average. Come talk to me when you're at least close to 60%

We'll see how many threads remain at the end of the season. Just like last season (all posted in here), I will be one of the few remaining with between 53%-55% winning percentage, my 20x-30x in profit and an ROI between 5% and 10%+. I don't care about winning percentage, I care about profit. As long as I get my $10,000-$15,000 or so profit that I project and I will be more than happy. If you stopped acting like such a know-it-all and tried to learn instead, maybe your bankroll management would improve and you would learn how to play the baseball market. Moreover, if you knew anything about baseball you would know winning percentage means nothing. If you play the dogs right and keep your juice down, you can hit 50% and still make a ton of profit. Get a clue, act like a man and you will get the respect you so richly desire. Keep acting like a D-bag and that is how you will be treated.

[hardball]

One of the best young lefties in the game now with a 1.63 WHIP and a 6 ERA

A quick glance at his advanced stats show:

The guys getting BABIP'd to death....

A 2.59 FIP with that ballpark to contend with is a solid number.

Like LTA said....Ignore ERA.

This dumb video explains why:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuWoLBhnJ1g

[No coincidences]

A quick glance at his advanced stats show:

The guys getting BABIP'd to death....

A 2.59 FIP with that ballpark to contend with is a solid number.

Like LTA said....Ignore ERA.

This dumb video explains why:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuWoLBhnJ1g

You might as well be speaking Russian to brahma with this post.

[taxe91]

Quick question for LTA, hope you haven't already addressed it somewhere. I've seen a few 1.25x, 1.5x unit and even that 4x unit play recently, are you making a conscious effort to increase your stake size or is it just by coincidence you're finding more value than usual on the plays?

[brahmabull117]

A quick glance at his advanced stats show:

The guys getting BABIP'd to death....

I'm not a huge believer in that BABIP. It basically states that all contact is the same, regardless of the pitcher, because all contact will even out


There are guys almost every year who strike out as much as 1 batter per inning who allow a ton of hits and others with similar stats that allow very few hits


A guy like greg maddux who gets contact by keeping the ball down, painting the corners and changing speeds does not induce equivalent contact to a meatball pitcher that induces contact with high fastballs and high breaking balls


I can't take that stat seriously. If you're giving up a lot of hits over a decent sample size and it's quality contact (like today's game - Friedrich wasn't giving up little singles, he gave up a homerun to Trumbo that must have traveled 500 feet), then you're just not a good pitcher

[Catchn_Picks]

A quick glance at his advanced stats show:

The guys getting BABIP'd to death....

A 2.59 FIP with that ballpark to contend with is a solid number.

Like LTA said....Ignore ERA.

This dumb video explains why:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuWoLBhnJ1g

Cool (yes, but dumb) video that really helped me understand.

TY for sharing hardball.

[brahmabull117]

We'll see how many threads remain at the end of the season. Just like last season (all posted in here), I will be one of the few remaining with between 53%-55% winning percentage, my 20x-30x in profit and an ROI between 5% and 10%+. I don't care about winning percentage, I care about profit. As long as I get my $10,000-$15,000 or so profit that I project and I will be more than happy. If you stopped acting like such a know-it-all and tried to learn instead, maybe your bankroll management would improve and you would learn how to play the baseball market. Moreover, if you knew anything about baseball you would know winning percentage means nothing. If you play the dogs right and keep your juice down, you can hit 50% and still make a ton of profit. Get a clue, act like a man and you will get the respect you so richly desire. Keep acting like a D-bag and that is how you will be treated.

Well, all I can tell you is that I'll be here all season and me and you can compare our records. My avg play is about -125, so there won't be a big difference in juice

[Love The Action]

Quick question for LTA, hope you haven't already addressed it somewhere. I've seen a few 1.25x, 1.5x unit and even that 4x unit play recently, are you making a conscious effort to increase your stake size or is it just by coincidence you're finding more value than usual on the plays?

Increased value on those plays coupled with certain factors that I may or may not share in my writeups which are usually just some vanilla basics.

[Love The Action]

I'm not a huge believer in that BABIP. It basically states that all contact is the same, regardless of the pitcher, because all contact will even out


There are guys almost every year who strike out as much as 1 batter per inning who allow a ton of hits and others with similar stats that allow very few hits


A guy like greg maddux who gets contact by keeping the ball down, painting the corners and changing speeds does not induce equivalent contact to a meatball pitcher that induces contact with high fastballs and high breaking balls


I can't take that stat seriously. If you're giving up a lot of hits over a decent sample size and it's quality contact (like today's game - Friedrich wasn't giving up little singles, he gave up a homerun to Trumbo that must have traveled 500 feet), then you're just not a good pitcher

This is why responding to you is useless. You think you know everything when in fact your statements just highlight the deficiencies in your knowledge. Go read about BABIP at fangraphs and really dive into the information and data.

[Love The Action]

Well, all I can tell you is that I'll be here all season and me and you can compare our records. My avg play is about -125, so there won't be a big difference in juice

No need for me to compare my record to a guy who has admittedly deleted and restarted his record multiple times already in this short season based on what people have told me. Moreover, I'm not in competition with anyone with my books. As long as I beat them and profit long term, then I have won. Take your childish crap to PT. If you want to talk real baseball market related topics, then start reading and learning before you make these long posts with irrelevant information. Good luck buddy...and I mean that. I hope you succeed. I always back the player over the book.

[brahmabull117]

No need for me to compare my record to a guy who has admittedly deleted and restarted his record multiple times already in this short season based on what people have told me. Moreover, I'm not in competition with anyone with my books. As long as I beat them and profit long term, then I have won. Take your childish crap to PT. If you want to talk real baseball market related topics, then start reading and learning before you make these long posts with irrelevant information. Good luck buddy...and I mean that. I hope you succeed. I always back the player over the book.

Irrelevant information that has allowed me to have a 34-15 record over a 49 play sample?



LTA, if your method of advanced stats is so much better than how I handicap, why aren't you hitting over 60% all the time?

[No coincidences]

Irrelevant information that has allowed me to have a 34-15 record over a 49 play sample?



LTA, if your method of advanced stats is so much better than how I handicap, why aren't you hitting over 60% all the time?

For the millionth time....

WHO GIVES A SHIT WHAT YOUR WINNING % IS IF YOU AREN'T MAKING MONEY?!?!?!?

[Squirrel Kokomo]

Irrelevant information that has allowed me to have a 34-15 record over a 49 play sample?



LTA, if your method of advanced stats is so much better than how I handicap, why aren't you hitting over 60% all the time?

brother, just make one thread and see how long it lasts. it's really simple, and it seems like you have the time.

[brahmabull117]

WHO GIVES A SHIT WHAT YOUR WINNING % IS IF YOU AREN'T MAKING MONEY?!?!?!?

The reason I didn't make money last season was because of poor bankroll management, not a bad job of picking winners


That's a simple question though, if his method is so much better than my more common sense/psychology based method. Why doesn't he hit 65% like I've hit and like others on this site have hit?

brother, just make one thread and see how long it lasts. it's really simple, and it seems like you have the time.

I got the spread sheet, no worries