LTA's MLB Plays

[Gamble32jn]

When LTA has a 3X or a 4X play I suggest u tail it. I had picked the Over in TB game until I seen LTA had risked a larger than normal amount and I changed my bet instantly to the Under.

Bottom line...if u see LTA make a big bet fire BIG on it cause I ain't seen him miss one yet in Any sport this year when he fires huge.

BOL to all and good work on that under LTA. I do my research and also look into other research that people provide that I might miss and then put my bets together. Been making super sweet money daily at it as well.

[Squirrel Kokomo]

I got the spread sheet, no worries

you really need to delete every pick on it and start fresh with no edits or deletions from that date onward or it is worthless.

[Vinnie Paz]

Brahma what the fukk are you doing to yourself??

You actually delete losers off your spreadsheet Bro???? How the fukc you gonna rag on the man and your records/plays aren't even honest.

[hardball]

I'm not a huge believer in that BABIP.

The pioneer of DIPS may disagree with you.

Here's another video from fangraphs just in-case you aren't sure how BABIP works.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8XEZlfwCT4&feature=fvwrel

Either way, GL in which ever way you decide to build your model.

[brahmabull117]

When LTA has a 3X or a 4X play I suggest u tail it. I had picked the Over in TB game until I seen LTA had risked a larger than normal amount and I changed my bet instantly to the Under.

Bottom line...if u see LTA make a big bet fire BIG on it cause I ain't seen him miss one yet in Any sport this year when he fires huge.

BOL to all and good work on that under LTA. I do my research and also look into other research that people provide that I might miss and then put my bets together. Been making super sweet money daily at it as well.

What I hate is his arrogance. He claims that my method of handicapping and the stats I use are irrelevant and worthless...yet I've performed very well with them over the last 2 seasons


It's just arrogance. You can't claim your method of handicapping is the best, unless you're hitting at least 60% and having one of the highest percentages on the website


Bottom line is that it doesn't matter what information you use, it's about winning. if one method is successful, then it's a good method. As much as LTA might think my more common sense and psychology based method is nonsense, I think he looks way too much into these games and handicaps like these are robots instead of people

[Vinnie Paz]

Gamble I have 0 problems with Lta Whatsoever but the nba thread has lost some bigger than usual size wagers, just letting you know guy.

Also some of y'all need to submit your picks to 3rd party record trackers where your %s and winnings/losses can accurately be tracked. This sbr spreadsheets are useless if you can just go in and alter the fukkin thing.

[brahmabull117]

Brahma what the fukk are you doing to yourself??

You actually delete losers off your spreadsheet Bro???? How the fukc you gonna rag on the man and your records/plays aren't even honest.

I went back and forth, back and forth, back and forth about whether or not I even wanted to have a spreadsheet cause of how much work it was. I was hitting at about 50% as I was in a cold streak. I finally decided for it though, no more deleting plays or editing for me (unless I accidentally typed in the wrong team's name but I'll try to avoid that)


I haven't edited or deleted any of my current plays on my spreadsheet except for the 1 time I put in the cubs instead of the twins (the line was - 120 and the cubs were never - 120 that game so it was just an honest mistake on my part)

[taxe91]

If you hate his arrogance just leave the thread Brahma. With all due respect to everyone I'm starting to get sick of having to skip through multiple pages of unrelated posts over the last week or so when I want to look over LTA's previous write-ups which is what this thread was created for. At least discuss some plays instead of flaming each other this is just spamming at the moment.

[brahmabull117]

If you hate his arrogance just leave the thread Brahma. With all due respect to everyone I'm starting to get sick of having to skip through multiple pages of unrelated posts over the last week or so when I want to look over LTA's previous write-ups which is what this thread was created for. At least discuss some plays instead of flaming each other this is just spamming at the moment.

the reason this all started was because I was curious why he took a side in a game at coors field with 2 pitchers that had just terrible numbers (friedrich's good numbers have been all on the road, he's been brutal at home and it takes a long while for many rookie pitchers to get used to pitching at Coors)


I didn't mean that as a way to rub it in. I thought the rockies would actually win that game when I saw the line today but I knew they'd have to score 10-15 runs to do it. He responded with a vicious insult of "this is why you're the biggest douchebag on this site"


It was an honest question on my part and LTA got all pissy over it because it was yet another play that I had the correct read on, just like the brewers/padres game that I called perfectly (until axeford gave up 2 or 3 runs late to make it look closer than it was)

[Love The Action]

Irrelevant information that has allowed me to have a 34-15 record over a 49 play sample?



LTA, if your method of advanced stats is so much better than how I handicap, why aren't you hitting over 60% all the time?

Again, winning percentage is not as important in baseball as other sports if you play low juice like I do. Regardless, this business is not easy. You show me who hit 60% over 800 plays last baseball season. I hit almost 54% last season over 800 plays with low juice and over 40x in profit. I play a strict 1x-6x system with rare plays more than 1x. I'm not the best ever nor do I care to be. All I care about is making money for my family at the end of the season.

[Vinnie Paz]

BB if you are serious about this you must be able to commit the time to keep record of your picks.

Also brahma pay attention to units + or -. % means nothing pal 60%+ doesn't always equate to positive units.

[Love The Action]

What I hate is his arrogance. He claims that my method of handicapping and the stats I use are irrelevant and worthless...yet I've performed very well with them over the last 2 seasons


It's just arrogance. You can't claim your method of handicapping is the best, unless you're hitting at least 60% and having one of the highest percentages on the website


Bottom line is that it doesn't matter what information you use, it's about winning. if one method is successful, then it's a good method. As much as LTA might think my more common sense and psychology based method is nonsense, I think he looks way too much into these games and handicaps like these are robots instead of people

I've never said your methods are worthless. What I'm trying to do is expand your knowledge. I'm the most humble guy you'll meet. I've never said I'm the best or that I'm better than you. I've tried to help you but you act like you know it all.

[Vinnie Paz]

If you hate his arrogance just leave the thread Brahma. With all due respect to everyone I'm starting to get sick of having to skip through multiple pages of unrelated posts over the last week or so when I want to look over LTA's previous write-ups which is what this thread was created for. At least discuss some plays instead of flaming each other this is just spamming at the moment.

This is what I'm saying man....digging through this bitch like crazy to find some picks, fukk me....

[brahmabull117]

I've tried to help you but you act like you know it all.

Honestly, I'll start listening to your opinions when you're correct more often than the other way around when we disagree. At this point, I think we have disagreed 4 or 5 times and I was on the right side almost every time


That seems perfectly fair to me and I mean that with all due respect

[Love The Action]

Gamble I have 0 problems with Lta Whatsoever but the nba thread has lost some bigger than usual size wagers, just letting you know guy.

Also some of y'all need to submit your picks to 3rd party record trackers where your %s and winnings/losses can accurately be tracked. This sbr spreadsheets are useless if you can just go in and alter the fukkin thing.

I am 20-12 on plays of 2x or more in the NBA this season after my last playoff win. Ofcourse I am going to lose some of them, however, I am generally between 60% and 70% of plays of 2x or more in NBA and MLB. This MLB season I am 2-2-1 after today so plenty of time to get that back up to where it needs to be. But my thread is supposed to be about bouncing plays off each other and learning from each other instead of tailing me. We all need to learn from each other to beat the books.

[Love The Action]

Honestly, I'll start listening to your opinions when you're correct more often than the other way around when we disagree. At this point, I think we have disagreed 4 or 5 times and I was on the right side almost every time


That seems perfectly fair to me and I mean that with all due respect

Are you serious right now. How about this. Rock...you are the best capper ever. Now go run along and seek attention elsewhere.

[No coincidences]

The reason I didn't make money last season was because of poor bankroll management, not a bad job of picking winners


That's a simple question though, if his method is so much better than my more common sense/psychology based method. Why doesn't he hit 65% like I've hit and like others on this site have hit?






I got the spread sheet, no worries

If it's really that simple, then why are you editing your spreadsheet all the time?

65 percent my ass.

[Love The Action]

Nice day today man.... I only rolled with you on the first 3 plays before I left the house for the day.... nice to get +6.25 units back for the good guys.... GL this week!

[hardball]

Again, winning percentage is not as important in baseball as other sports if you play low juice like I do. .

THIS.

Z-Score I believe would come into play here.

Brahma...I'm out of youtube videos to help illustrate my point.

But here is a GREAT thread on calculating Z-score.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/84644-better-way-measure-handicapper-success.html

[brucethebear]

Congrats on the stellar day.
Missed your plays.
We are Aussies abroad. Took my boy to our first game.
Great day.

[No coincidences]

Honestly, I'll start listening to your opinions when you're correct more often than the other way around when we disagree. At this point, I think we have disagreed 4 or 5 times and I was on the right side almost every time


That seems perfectly fair to me and I mean that with all due respect

This is the funniest, most delusional post I've seen here all goddam week.

Only at SBR. Unreal.

[brahmabull117]

If it's really that simple, then why are you editing your spreadsheet all the time?

I went back and forth, back and forth, back and forth about whether or not I wanted to have a spreadsheet. I wasn't doing terrible, hitting about 50% (though for me that's not good)


To be honest, it took me a while to get back into rhythm of reading games. I've been on fire ever since, reading almost every game near perfectly in terms of not only win/loss record but win loss record of leans as well


Regardless of the fact, there's 4 more months left. Talk is cheap, we're all going to see who is good and who is a fraud by the time the season's over. I'll post my plays everyday and we'll all know if I'm good or not

[No coincidences]

I'll post my plays everyday and we'll all know if I'm good or not

Is it really that hard to do without editing and deleting picks?

[Vinnie Paz]

I was directing the 3rd party record tracker comment to brahma by the way. Anyways guys onto tomorrow small card lets hope we nail them, yes???

[hawley]

Bro why do you talk like you're actually good at this? a 52-53% winning percentage isn't jack sht when there are people on here who routinely hit as high as 58 to even 70 percent. You're barely above average. Come talk to me when you're at least close to 60%

sweet fuckn jesus.

Serious brah? and you wonder why you cop shit?

[Vinnie Paz]

Brahms are these leans of yours actually official plays that you wager money on????

[brahmabull117]

Is it really that hard to do without editing and deleting picks?

I haven't deleted or edited anything in the last week or so with the exception of a typing mistake I made by writing cubs instead of twins (everybody should know that's an honest mistake on my part as i don't play the cubs if you give me +200). My last 19 posted plays, I've gone 13-6 with an avg play of maybe - 125


Though like I said, talk is cheap. I'm going to see if I can maintain a very high winning percentage over the length of the season. Then we will all know if I'm a fraud or not



I apologize for derailing the thread but again I reiterate. I asked LT an honest question of why he backed the rockies instead of the over in a matchup of 2 hot offenses and 2 pitchers with horrible numbers and he snapped at me by calling me the biggest douchebag on the site. There would have been no issues if he didn't say that

[Love The Action]

I haven't deleted or edited anything in the last week or so with the exception of a typing mistake I made by writing cubs instead of twins (everybody should know that's an honest mistake on my part as i don't play the cubs if you give me +200). My last 19 posted plays, I've gone 13-6 with an avg play of maybe - 125


Though like I said, talk is cheap. I'm going to see if I can maintain a very high winning percentage over the length of the season. Then we will all know if I'm a fraud or not

Great. Can you talk about how great you are in your own thread. Thanks and good luck.

[Redscot]

Brahma, just be another guy in this thread bro. State your opinions, give your reasons, it's all good, give and take benefits us all. I too use a lot of psychological angles, some I am sure that LTA has looked at askance from time to time. Yet and still we find a way to share and perhaps influence each other in a positive way (I have gained more from him than he from me admittedly). If you are looking for a bigger role, just start your own thread and track your plays. The way you are going about things is just further burying you and your reputation/credibility on this site, something that probably means more to you than it should anyway.

[brahmabull117]

The way you are going about things is just further burying you and your reputation/credibility on this site, something that probably means more to you than it should anyway.

It doesn't, my only interest in winning for myself. I get very very irritated when people like ShogunRua assert these baseless claims of me hitting at 30% or other nonsense. I don't want people to say I'm a god, but I don't want that sort of bullsh*t either. Just talk to me like I'm 0-0. If I celebrate a win, I'm celebrating for myself


Regardless of the fact, I apologize for derailing the thread. You guys can go back to business as usual

[CHAZ]

Ridiculous, how much BS I have to scan through to read a intelligent post. He has a model. A system to stick to. Let him be and take the wealth of information he puts for your learning. If you disagree move on.

[Redscot]

Will be on the two early plays for tomorrow with ya LTA. The Yanks play has so much value it is almost scary (no jinx)

I like the under as well, but am always wary of Morrow when he starts to appear to be hitting his stride.

What's your thoughts on the battle for L.A.? I am not surprised in the least by Capuano's early success, his advanced stats from last year foreshadowed better results this year....yet, the Angels are really hitting their stride, whilst the Dodgers lineup continues to outperform IMO. Richards is young, dumb and full of....well you know the rest...he has the unfamiliarity angle. I think it is Statement time for the Angels in L.A. and + odds seems very tempting.

[taxe91]

Hey Red that Angels at + money play caught my eye too, while Richards has only had one start thus far he's fairly high on the Angels depth chart as a prospect. Did very well in that one start and got stretched out nicely too. In regards to Capuano, he's gotten 'figured out' so to speak in his last two starts. 5 inning outings and 4 earned runs on both occasions. The angels have really poor offensive numbers against leftys though and to be honest thats the one thing holding me back at this stage

[Gamble32jn]

I must have missed the big NBA plays. I play my own NBA and didn't always check LTA's plays in NBA. Plus I like brahmabull and he does a good job I think. Everyone has their ways and I use stats and common sense as well along with current playing habits so I get ur drift there brahmabull. I'm just saying I like LTA and I think he does a good job for as many plays as he posts. I never play all someone's plays if I'm looking for a extra play, I just take the info they have with mine and use it to my advantage is all.

[Redscot]

Hey Red that Angels at + money play caught my eye too, while Richards has only had one start thus far he's fairly high on the Angels depth chart as a prospect. Did very well in that one start and got stretched out nicely too. In regards to Capuano, he's gotten 'figured out' so to speak in his last two starts. 5 inning outings and 4 earned runs on both occasions. The angels have really poor offensive numbers against leftys though and to be honest thats the one thing holding me back at this stage

No doubting the Angels #'s against LHP this season, but it fly's in the face of reason. Their lineup is RH dominant and should start to punish LHP dearly. The Angels have been a value machine over the last 2-3 weeks, and surprisingly continue to be so imo.