LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

Lta, best wishes for the "little man's" 1st b'day, enjoy and good luck on today's card

Good luck my friend

[Love The Action]

Ouch... I'd like to tail but can't go against the local team today. Mariners are a strange bunch, seem to be putting it together but...they say we have a young team. We've had this same "young team" for about 25years

GL today

Good luck buddy.

[EASY_MONEY72]

its the biggest bet for the day for me.. Played for 3units at 7.5 (-120) at local before he adjusts the line...
Hope it cashes in..
Bol

nice call dr moron!

[brahmabull117]

I like both LA and Detroit quite a bit. I think Verlander is definitely due for a win and Kershaw is due for a dominant performance


I'm not going to play Detroit though. That team's been hemorrhaging money all season. I'll start playing them when they show some signs of life/a hot streak

[EASY_MONEY72]

This douche doesn't buy picks.. he uses shill name "easy money" to promote his own selling site..
He tries to sell picks by name "scott stylze" and he is pathetic... No one buys his picks so he comes on various forums and posts his own plays.. alter his records to show more win but whenever he posts his plays he is in red.. lol
Biggest a'hole on planet lol

and another loser!! LMAO

yes - with your INTRICATE KNOWLEDGE OF WHO I AM - you got me kicked off the site by sending somebodys IP addresses to everyone you could think of - didnt you, Dr MORON? dont bother to respond.....im blocking you, idiot.

[Love The Action]

I can get the Mets for +148 right now....so tempting. Running out of time....have to make a decision soon.

[brahmabull117]

I can get the Mets for +148 right now....so tempting. Running out of time....have to make a decision soon.

Play the adjusted run line for mets at like +250. If they win, it will likely be by 2+ runs (Only 2 of the Yankees 12 home losses have been by less than 2 runs)

[meader99]

Well today is a good day regardless of anything that can happen in the sports world then. Seems like yesterday that little man showed up to bless you and your wives lives. Birthday parties, , oh the memories! 1 year olds are pretty tame though, wait till they hit 5 or so and watch them all turn into crack fiends after eating cake and ice cream , with the sugar rush that ensues.

The beats will turn around bro, been nuts.

I didn't know LTA was a mormon. No way in heck LTA has time to cap all these games and please TWO or more women. GL today all. And Happy Birthday to the little guy......Bet he brings the winners.

[Catchn_Picks]

I didn't know LTA was a mormon. No way in heck LTA has time to cap all these games and please TWO or more women. GL today all. And Happy Birthday to the little guy......Bet he brings the winners.

Multiple wives? Oh the horror! Oh the inhumanity!

IMO, this would be a very difficult existence. Name me the guy who has just one wife totally figured out?

LOL

[Redscot]

I didn't know LTA was a mormon. No way in heck LTA has time to cap all these games and please TWO or more women. GL today all. And Happy Birthday to the little guy......Bet he brings the winners.

. There is much you don't know about LTA; The man, the myth, the legend!

[Derty D]

Best of luck on your 5 plays today LTA. Speaking of regression to the mean, I like your Det-1 play...Verlander will get back to his average W/L numbers...

Go get 'em!

Question: How/when do you know the doors will be open in Arizona? Is there a temperature point?

[Redscot]

Best of luck on your 5 plays today LTA. Speaking of regression to the mean, I like your Det-1 play...Verlander will get back to his average W/L numbers...

Go get 'em!

Question: How/when do you know the doors will be open in Arizona? Is there a temperature point?

http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/ari/ballpark/information/index.jsp?content=roof

[Catchn_Picks]

http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/...p?content=roof

Thanks Red...I wondered this myself. Cool. Much appreciated. That computer of yours seems to be a "one-stop shop" of capping info.

[LoneStar]

Nice day buddy....but if you are going to bump the winners you should bump the losers as well. I run my thread and am accountable for wins and losses. You like to post some of your plays in here at times and always seem to come back and bump your winners but never your losers. Don't be that guy. Either start your own thread or participate in this one, but if you are going to bump your winners then you need to be accountable for your losers as well. Good luck today.

really..... LTA don't start acting like a clown on me pal. I have never previously bump your thread; if so please show me other then this post. If I recall correctly; I have contribute to your forum with my plays and tried starting conversion with you, however you always appears to give me one-liners so I don't bother. I'm not sure what you're speaking about when you say bump winners/losers, when I've posted Thursday going 3-1-1 (which 1 was your pick) and yesterday I posted 4 winners. Prior too that If I recall; I posted 2 big under dogs which one of them was OAK AT+170 and the other one was a loser. So, how am I not contributing? LTA, whats so bazaar is the fact that you'll spend so much time with trolls that don't contribute in defending your picks but lack conversions with people that you may be unfamiliar with that contribute winners. Maybe I should come in here and piss on your picks if you feel so defensives about me posting winners pal.

[Derty D]

http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/...p?content=roof

Thank you for taking the time to answer my question. I respect your efforts here and elsewhere.

With respect and appreciation,

Derty D

[Love The Action]

really..... LTA don't start acting like a clown on me pal. I have never previously bump your thread; if so please show me other then this post. If I recall correctly; I have contribute to your forum with my plays and tried starting conversion with you, however you always appears to give me one-liners so I don't bother. I'm not sure what you're speaking about when you say bump winners/losers, when I've posted Thursday going 3-1-1 (which 1 was your pick) and yesterday I posted 4 winners. Prior too that If I recall; I posted 2 big under dogs which one of them was OAK AT+170 and the other one was a loser. So, how am I not contributing? LTA, whats so bazaar is the fact that you'll spend so much time with trolls that don't contribute in defending your picks but lack conversions with people that you may be unfamiliar with that contribute winners. Maybe I should come in here and piss on your picks if you feel so defensives about me posting winners pal.

You took my comment completely the wrong way, but I can see how you might have misinterpreted after I read my post. Not trying to be a dick....if you want to know I said what I said then PM me.

[Catchn_Picks]

LTA:

The difference between your record so far this season between your record on ML bets and your totals bets (in particular the under plays) is staggering. With totals being your focused plays in all sports it seems, is there anything you have noticed about your model or the season so far to account for this? It is almost getting weird.

BOL going forward always.

[taxe91]

LTA:

The difference between your record so far this season between your record on ML bets and your totals bets (in particular the under plays) is staggering. With totals being your focused plays in all sports it seems, is there anything you have noticed about your model or the season so far to account for this? It is almost getting weird.

BOL going forward always.

do you know what the separate records are?

[Love The Action]

LTA:

The difference between your record so far this season between your record on ML bets and your totals bets (in particular the under plays) is staggering. With totals being your focused plays in all sports it seems, is there anything you have noticed about your model or the season so far to account for this? It is almost getting weird.

BOL going forward always.

The amount of unders I have lost in the 8th or 9th inning is staggering.. Whether I am playing a great bullpen or crap bullpen, I hit a run where most of my under plays have been losing late in the game because of poor bullpens and defense. However, that's just variance because eventually we have to hit a run here where the players start doing their job and those plays start hitting at the rate they imply by their 8th or 9th inning score. Those plays have always hit over the last two years so I don't see why they won't now. Its statistically unlikely that I can keep picking the one to three unders on every card that have a one to three run +ev cushion in the 8th or 9th inning and don't cash. When you have such a cushion like i have had in the majority of my unders, that implies a much larger hit rate than we have experienced thus far. Consequently, I expect that rate to increase soon in our favor and a big run to hit like it did earlier in the season when we got up to 18x. The unders were cashing then and they will once more. Good luck.

[taxe91]

LTA, Detroit's price has pushed out to +122 in their matchup with the Reds today. Drew Smyly's numbers have been superior to Bailey's thus far this season, and the Tigers are averaging a run more against rightys (Bailey) than leftys. Any thoughts/leans here?

[Love The Action]

LTA, Detroit's price has pushed out to +122 in their matchup with the Reds today. Drew Smyly's numbers have been superior to Bailey's thus far this season, and the Tigers are averaging a run more against rightys (Bailey) than leftys. Any thoughts/leans here?

The Reds are the third best hitting team against lefties. Smyly has solid numbers but has regressed a bit of late. I am passing for now but good luck in whatever you choose.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/9/2012 Recap

2 - 2 - 1 = -0.06x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

145 - 142 - 21 = -3.49x

Typical push on a play I need....onto Sunday. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/10/2012

Play #1

Astros/White Sox over (9.5) 1x (Locked)

It's hot and steamy with the wind blowing out to left. Even though Harrell is a good ground ball guy, he pitches to way too much contract for a day like today. On the other side, Humber is one of the biggest fly ball pitchers in baseball and also pitches to too much contact. I expect a high scoring game where both pitchers labor despite the unfamiliarity with the lineups. Everitt is the ump and he does lean a bit under, but on a day like today with these pitchers and lineups, I don't think it will matter much. The White Sox are hitting righties at a great clip right now and I don't see that changing today. I have this game set at 10.8 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nationals/Red Sox under (9)(-105) 1.25x (Locked)

I expect a better game out of Lester today and Zimmerman is generally pretty dependable. I know the Red Sox lineup is fierce and the Nats are hitting better, but both pitchers have limited experience against these lineups which should help. The wind is blowing in and it's only in the mid-70's so it's not hot like in Chicago. I have this game set at 7.99 and it's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us. I think we stay under that number and I rolling with the under for 1.25x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Looking to finish out the week strong. Hope you had a blast at your son's b-day party yesterday .

Tempted on the Pad's at +150, Bass has been every bit as good as Gallardo this season and the Pad's have the hotter bats (not something you get to say very often).

Shields at + money is always tempting, or is an under there the play?

Definitely like the under in Balty at first glance, their bats have been the poorest in MLB over last couple of weeks....maybe a Phils -1 RL is the better play.

Cubs at +123.....could I really put myself through that punishment.....Liriano has thrown 2 good games in a row and getting respect from the books....is he really "fixed".

Lots of decisions to make..............

[Catchn_Picks]

CWS game juicing up hard right now. Could be 10 by gametime. Get 9.5 while you can.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/10/2012

Play #1

Astros/White Sox over (9.5) 1x (Locked)

It's hot and steamy with the wind blowing out to left. Even though Harrell is a good ground ball guy, he pitches to way too much contract for a day like today. On the other side, Humber is one of the biggest fly ball pitchers in baseball and also pitches to too much contact. I expect a high scoring game where both pitchers labor despite the unfamiliarity with the lineups. Everitt is the ump and he does lean a bit under, but on a day like today with these pitchers and lineups, I don't think it will matter much. The White Sox are hitting righties at a great clip right now and I don't see that changing today. I have this game set at 10.8 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nationals/Red Sox under (9)(-105) 1.25x (Locked)

I expect a better game out of Lester today and Zimmerman is generally pretty dependable. I know the Red Sox lineup is fierce and the Nats are hitting better, but both pitchers have limited experience against these lineups which should help. The wind is blowing in and it's only in the mid-70's so it's not hot like in Chicago. I have this game set at 7.99 and it's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us. I think we stay under that number and I rolling with the under for 1.25x. Good luck.

Play #3

Rays/Marlins under (7.5)(-105) 4x (Locked)

This went to plus money overnight and I missed that price, but I am jumping on this at -105 as Pinny just started to juice the under from the -102 it was sitting at. Shields is in a great bounce back spot and the advanced numbers for both guys jump off the page at you. My model loves this pitching matchup, we have solid bullpens with the Rays ranked top 10 and Marlins top 14 and the defenses are not below average. Both teams are ranked in the bottom 10 against righties and I think this sets up nicely for a big under play with most wagers backing the over. Not sure if the roof is open or closed, but the wind is blowing in if the roof is open. Either way, I expect both pitchers to pitch deep into this game in a real "pitchers duel." The ump is Fairchild who is a neutral o/u guy but with a strike rate in the high 62.8% range lifetime. I have this game set at 5.1 and it is going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I think we stay under that number and I am rolling with the under for 4x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Looking to finish out the week strong. Hope you had a blast at your son's b-day party yesterday .

Tempted on the Pad's at +150, Bass has been every bit as good as Gallardo this season and the Pad's have the hotter bats (not something you get to say very often).

Shields at + money is always tempting, or is an under there the play?

Definitely like the under in Balty at first glance, their bats have been the poorest in MLB over last couple of weeks....maybe a Phils -1 RL is the better play.

Cubs at +123.....could I really put myself through that punishment.....Liriano has thrown 2 good games in a row and getting respect from the books....is he really "fixed".

Lots of decisions to make..............

Thanks. Well, as you can see I went big on the Rays/Marlins under so that's my answer to your question about that game.

Be careful about the Balty under as the conditions are ripe for an over with really hot 97 degree weather and a wind blowing out at 10 mph. Very similar to the conditions in the White Sox over I played, although the pitchers in this game are much, much better. Hammel has put up great numbers so far, but how long until he regresses to his career averages? I like Philly to win that one, but I missed the best price in the -130's and I can't play it at the -140's so I will probably have to pass unless it drops back down.

I think that Bass has not been as sharp as late. He burned me when I backed him on the under in his last last start and that makes three bad starts in a row where he has given up at least 4 runs, whereas Gallardo has been pitching much better over the last month until his last start against the Cubs. With that said, however, Bass has never faced the Brewers before and has unfamiliarity working for him while Gallardo has been hit hard by that SD lineup that you mentioned is heating up. Based on the numbers, there is value on SD. I have them set at +137 but just not sure if I can trust Bass or SD right now. That reminds me of the Yankees/Mets game yesterday where there was a ton of value on Gee. I made the right decision and passed and I tend to think that might be the right decision again. We'll see.....

Cubs price just got better....up to +130's but as you mentioned I think we need to see more out of Liriano before we can back or fade him. Plus, the Cubs are the Cubs and if you don't get a complete game from the starting pitcher you always have to worry.

Anyway, good luck on all your plays my friend. Gotta get back to the card.

[Dmil]

CWS game juicing up hard right now. Could be 10 by gametime. Get 9.5 while you can.

10 now at Dimes -115

[guil0000]

Is it just me or is Hammel still not getting respect. +135 at home is ludicrous! Am I missing something? I know Lee is a stud but Hammel is really a different pitcher this year imo

[Love The Action]

Is it just me or is Hammel still not getting respect. +135 at home is ludicrous! Am I missing something? I know Lee is a stud but Hammel is really a different pitcher this year imo

He's got great advanced numbers, but how long until he regresses to his career averages? He has an unsustainable LOB% of 80.1% which is way higher than his lifetime 69%. Likewise, his strikeout numbers are huge compared to his lifetime numbers with a current K% over 20% and a lifetime around 16%. His SwStr% is at 9.9% and his lifetime is 7.9%. Something has to give. I suspect he is benefiting from the AL's unfamiliarity with him and once he goes around the league a few times the pitchers will catch up.

[Catchn_Picks]

Good luck to LTA and all on the big under.

A win here and we will make up for a lot of crappy late inning meltdowns!

[Love The Action]

Pissed I didn't beat the steam on the Yankee over. That is a solid looking play at 9 -115 or better. Right now it's at 9.5 and can't play it that number. Hopefully it comes back down a bit so I may consider it again.

[Love The Action]

Good luck to LTA and all on the big under.

A win here and we will make up for a lot of crappy late inning meltdowns!

Good luck my friend.

[Catchn_Picks]

Pissed I didn't beat the steam on the Yankee over. That is a solid looking play at 9 -115 or better. Right now it's at 9.5 and can't play it that number. Hopefully it comes back down a bit so I may consider it again.

5D still has O 9 -125 on reduced bet LTA...still like it?

Scratch that...went to play a half a unit and it is gone!

*********

But I wonder if there is value at NYY -1 with the Yanks being a perennial left handed hitting team and NYM struggling versus lefties so far this year?

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/10/2012

Play #1

Astros/White Sox over (9.5) 1x (Locked)

It's hot and steamy with the wind blowing out to left. Even though Harrell is a good ground ball guy, he pitches to way too much contract for a day like today. On the other side, Humber is one of the biggest fly ball pitchers in baseball and also pitches to too much contact. I expect a high scoring game where both pitchers labor despite the unfamiliarity with the lineups. Everitt is the ump and he does lean a bit under, but on a day like today with these pitchers and lineups, I don't think it will matter much. The White Sox are hitting righties at a great clip right now and I don't see that changing today. I have this game set at 10.8 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nationals/Red Sox under (9)(-105) 1.25x (Locked)

I expect a better game out of Lester today and Zimmerman is generally pretty dependable. I know the Red Sox lineup is fierce and the Nats are hitting better, but both pitchers have limited experience against these lineups which should help. The wind is blowing in and it's only in the mid-70's so it's not hot like in Chicago. I have this game set at 7.99 and it's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us. I think we stay under that number and I rolling with the under for 1.25x. Good luck.

Play #3

Rays/Marlins under (7.5)(-105) 4x (Locked)

This went to plus money overnight and I missed that price, but I am jumping on this at -105 as Pinny just started to juice the under from the -102 it was sitting at. Shields is in a great bounce back spot and the advanced numbers for both guys jump off the page at you. My model loves this pitching matchup, we have solid bullpens with the Rays ranked top 10 and Marlins top 14 and the defenses are not below average. Both teams are ranked in the bottom 10 against righties and I think this sets up nicely for a big under play with most wagers backing the over. Not sure if the roof is open or closed, but the wind is blowing in if the roof is open. Either way, I expect both pitchers to pitch deep into this game in a real "pitchers duel." The ump is Fairchild who is a neutral o/u guy but with a strike rate in the high 62.8% range lifetime. I have this game set at 5.1 and it is going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I think we stay under that number and I am rolling with the under for 4x. Good luck.

Play #4

Dodgers ML (+101) 1x (Locked)

This is a pure value play so I will not worry about the reverse line movement just like I didn't worry about it yesterday when we see the same line movement favoring Seattle. I have this game set at -114 which is very close to where Pinny opened. The line movement created this value so I will jump on it now before it the more people buy the Dodgers. I'm not sure what Seattle money sees in this game because statistically speaking this is a pretty straightforward play because despite his inconsistency, Billingsley's numbers far outshine Beavan across the board, LA is the much better hitting team with top 10 stats versus righties compared to Seattle's bottom 10 numbers and the bullpens are not even close where again we have a top 10/bottom 10 Dodger advantage. I like the numbers in this game and the line movement created the value, so I am rolling with the Dodgers for 1x. Good luck.