LTA's MLB Plays

[That Guy]

Just can't get a break with any of these plays today... variance is a b!tch!

[Love The Action]

Just can't get a break with any of these plays today... variance is a b!tch!

Its unreal right now. The white six game was like a knife in the heart with Ramirez making both an error and mental mistake in the 7th inning with the rundown by letting the guy score, but we still had a chance to cash only to lose in the ninth inning per usual. The Cincy game was just as painful. it's seriously starting to piss me off. I can't imagine losing games like this more than a handful of times per year but it's been happening on a daily basis. Where are the plays that even out these bad beats is what I want to know.

[Love The Action]

This douche doesn't buy picks.. he uses shill name "easy money" to promote his own selling site..
He tries to sell picks by name "scott stylze" and he is pathetic... No one buys his picks so he comes on various forums and posts his own plays.. alter his records to show more win but whenever he posts his plays he is in red.. lol
Biggest a'hole on planet lol

Wow.....that is pretty bad if true.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/8/2012 Recap

2 - 3 = -1.14x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

143 - 140 - 20 = -3.43x

These 9th inning losses are starting to really hurt....good luck on Saturday.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/9/2012

Play #1

Cubs/Twins under (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Two of the games best young pitchers square off against two of the more inconsistent offenses. Wind is blowing in and Enmel is the ump who is 9-1 o/u this season but who has a high strike rate over 63% and an under leaning history which tells me this seasons o/u results for him are not the result of a small strike zone. I have this game set at 6.9 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rangers/Giants over (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I'll pay the -110 for this matchup as Vogelsong finally faces an offense that can force his inevitable regression. On the other side is Feldman who even the Giants can hit up for three or more runs. Randazzo is the ump who is fairly neutral but I expect the bats to push this one over. I have this game set at 9 even and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Does anyone have numbers for Vance Worley during day games? I seem to remember reading that he has vision problems during the day and has gotten shelled in day games because of it....

[That Guy]

Its unreal right now. The white six game was like a knife in the heart with Ramirez making both an error and mental mistake in the 7th inning with the rundown by letting the guy score, but we still had a chance to cash only to lose in the ninth inning per usual. The Cincy game was just as painful. it's seriously starting to piss me off. I can't imagine losing games like this more than a handful of times per year but it's been happening on a daily basis. Where are the plays that even out these bad beats is what I want to know.

Watching the White Sox game and thought we'd have that for sure.. unbelievable!
Thanks for your time as always LTA - good times just around the corner

[LoneStar]

LTA I'm liking NYY, TB, ATL, LAA....I believe i got 4 winners here for tomorrow! Thoughts on any?

If you believe it that's all that matters....I still have more work to do. Good luck.

[taxe91]

Does anyone have numbers for Vance Worley during day games? I seem to remember reading that he has vision problems during the day and has gotten shelled in day games because of it....

4.88 career ERA in day games, alarming .859 OPS against him, hes suffering with a .368 BABIP in that split though. 5.00 ERA in 3 day games so far this year. Couldn't find any advanced stats on it I just pulled these off ESPN.

Strange to hear a pitcher struggling from that, would have thought vision issues in day games to be a problem more applicable to hitters, like Josh Hamilton struggling in day games at the start of last season

[Redscot]

4.88 career ERA in day games, alarming .859 OPS against him, hes suffering with a .368 BABIP in that split though. 5.00 ERA in 3 day games so far this year. Couldn't find any advanced stats on it I just pulled these off ESPN.

Strange to hear a pitcher struggling from that, would have thought vision issues in day games to be a problem more applicable to hitters, like Josh Hamilton struggling in day games at the start of last season

As taxe pointed out the .112 disparity on babip between day and night has a lot to do with it. He has a higher K rate and a lower BB rate during the day, the later which would seem to dispel somewhat the vision issue. Aside from the babip the only other number that stands out is the hr rate, which is like 75% higher in the day. Seems to me if we got an Xfip or Siera number there wouldn't be that huge of a difference. One thing of interest regarding Worley is his career numbers vs. Lefties are superior to his numbers against RHB.

[Love The Action]

Nice day buddy....but if you are going to bump the winners you should bump the losers as well. I run my thread and am accountable for wins and losses. You like to post some of your plays in here at times and always seem to come back and bump your winners but never your losers. Don't be that guy. Either start your own thread or participate in this one, but if you are going to bump your winners then you need to be accountable for your losers as well. Good luck today.

[Love The Action]

4.88 career ERA in day games, alarming .859 OPS against him, hes suffering with a .368 BABIP in that split though. 5.00 ERA in 3 day games so far this year. Couldn't find any advanced stats on it I just pulled these off ESPN.

Strange to hear a pitcher struggling from that, would have thought vision issues in day games to be a problem more applicable to hitters, like Josh Hamilton struggling in day games at the start of last season

Thanks buddy. You are becoming a really solid contributor to this thread and sbr. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

As taxe pointed out the .112 disparity on babip between day and night has a lot to do with it. He has a higher K rate and a lower BB rate during the day, the later which would seem to dispel somewhat the vision issue. Aside from the babip the only other number that stands out is the hr rate, which is like 75% higher in the day. Seems to me if we got an Xfip or Siera number there wouldn't be that huge of a difference. One thing of interest regarding Worley is his career numbers vs. Lefties are superior to his numbers against RHB.

Thanks Red....what else do you like today. Just woke up from a little nap and need to finish my card soon. Its our little man's first birthday and party starts in like 6 hours. Lots of work to do..

Good luck today my friend. I don't know what is going on with all these ninth inning heart wrenching losses, but im hoping they start to go our way soon.

[Love The Action]

Red....what about Gee against the Yanks. We have value but I'm not sure they can get it done with the yanks bats heating up.

[Redscot]

That Texas over is the play that jumped out at me first this morning LTA. I would take that Yank under in any other major league BP, Yankee stadium is just unfair for RHP imo. Gee's GB% vs. Hughes FB% almost tempts me to play the Muts.

Sale at -225 , I love the kid but come on. This kid Parker is due for some regression at some point and has the benefit of throwing 6 of his 9 games in Oakland's spacious confines. Kershaw is hovering around an auto-play if he gets under -130 imo. Looking forward to the rest of your thoughts on todays card bro. Keep on grinding.

[Redscot]

Thanks Red....what else do you like today. Just woke up from a little nap and need to finish my card soon. Its our little man's first birthday and party starts in like 6 hours. Lots of work to do..

Good luck today my friend. I don't know what is going on with all these ninth inning heart wrenching losses, but im hoping they start to go our way soon.

Well today is a good day regardless of anything that can happen in the sports world then. Seems like yesterday that little man showed up to bless you and your wives lives. Birthday parties, , oh the memories! 1 year olds are pretty tame though, wait till they hit 5 or so and watch them all turn into crack fiends after eating cake and ice cream , with the sugar rush that ensues.

The beats will turn around bro, been nuts.

[BiffTFinancial]

Thanks Red....what else do you like today. Just woke up from a little nap and need to finish my card soon. Its our little man's first birthday and party starts in like 6 hours. Lots of work to do..

Good luck today my friend. I don't know what is going on with all these ninth inning heart wrenching losses, but im hoping they start to go our way soon.

mazel tov for LTA Jr! my son just turned 3 and it's a blast. enjoy the birthday and of course BOL today, pal.

[Redscot]

Red....what about Gee against the Yanks. We have value but I'm not sure they can get it done with the yanks bats heating up.

It is tempting, I agree, when you compare Hughes with his high FB% against Gee and his high GB %, it is a decided advantage in Yankee stadium. Gee has been on a roll, but as you pointed out the yank's bats are heating up. Gee is at the top of the pecking order of
"smoke and mirror guys" in my book, getting a ridiculous amount of swinging strikes 10.6% despite his pedestrian 90 mph cheese. One of the Yanks strength as a lineup though has been grinding out at bats, making a pitcher work, and drawing bb's. Not sure how that will work with Gee who really uses the periphery of the strike zone (ump may be important here too. Tschida is stingy) If they get Gee's pitch count up and he exits early, looking at 3+ innings of Mets BP . As I mentioned in my above post, looking at the card the Mets tempt me....just not sure about the Gee/Tschida relationship (although Gee was successful the only time he pitched with Tschida behind the plate)

[taxe91]

Thanks buddy. You are becoming a really solid contributor to this thread and sbr. Good luck.

As taxe pointed out the .112 disparity on babip between day and night has a lot to do with it. He has a higher K rate and a lower BB rate during the day, the later which would seem to dispel somewhat the vision issue. Aside from the babip the only other number that stands out is the hr rate, which is like 75% higher in the day. Seems to me if we got an Xfip or Siera number there wouldn't be that huge of a difference. One thing of interest regarding Worley is his career numbers vs. Lefties are superior to his numbers against RHB.

That same thing is happening to Joel Peralta lately. Last season lefty's OPS against him: 0.434, righty's OPS: 0.718. He's started this season in the same vein, its uncanny. The strangest thing is his numbers were never like this till he joined the Rays last year.

[Love The Action]

Well today is a good day regardless of anything that can happen in the sports world then. Seems like yesterday that little man showed up to bless you and your wives lives. Birthday parties, , oh the memories! 1 year olds are pretty tame though, wait till they hit 5 or so and watch them all turn into crack fiends after eating cake and ice cream , with the sugar rush that ensues.

The beats will turn around bro, been nuts.

This year has gone by SO fast it's unreal. In a way it's good, because I can't wait until he gets older and we can spend more time together. I want to be a great dad that spends as much time as possible with his kids. My dad died when I was an infant so I never had that aspect in my life. I want to give my kids everything I didn't have, especially when it comes to spending time with them. That's why I can't post on here forever. Once I start coaching his football and baseball teams and all the other stuff that kids like to do, I just won't have time. Plus, I want to be sure that I take an active role in his schoolwork and try to get him into physical fitness and exercise at an early age. You know how it is....you were a great dad helping your sons out with baseball and everything. Now look what your hard work has achieved. Your kids are very smart and successful and doing well in both sports and school. You da man!

[Love The Action]

mazel tov for LTA Jr! my son just turned 3 and it's a blast. enjoy the birthday and of course BOL today, pal.

Thanks BIFFster....same to you buddy!

[Redscot]

That same thing is happening to Joel Peralta lately. Last season lefty's OPS against him: 0.434, righty's OPS: 0.718. He's started this season in the same vein, its uncanny. The strangest thing is his numbers were never like this till he joined the Rays last year.

Yeah, the reverse split action on Peralta is insane over the last year +. His k/bb % vs RHB pales in comparison to LHB, and the GB% for RHB is alarming really. Since he ditched the slider though he has pretty much taken a dip against RHB. His splitter seems to entice the LHB (who love their low pitches) but the RHB are laying off it and making him throw his FB.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/9/2012

Play #1

Cubs/Twins under (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Two of the games best young pitchers square off against two of the more inconsistent offenses. Wind is blowing in and Enmel is the ump who is 9-1 o/u this season but who has a high strike rate over 63% and an under leaning history which tells me this seasons o/u results for him are not the result of a small strike zone. I have this game set at 6.9 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rangers/Giants over (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I'll pay the -110 for this matchup as Vogelsong finally faces an offense that can force his inevitable regression. On the other side is Feldman who even the Giants can hit up for three or more runs. Randazzo is the ump who is fairly neutral but I expect the bats to push this one over. I have this game set at 9 even and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Dodgers ML (-129) 1x (Locked)

I also like the under, but missed the plus money. I will keep my eye on that one and may play it later. For now, I will take a shot with Kershaw. Vargas is having a solid year, but he is no Kershaw. Seattle is bottom 10 against lefties in all significant categories, while the Dodgers remain top 11. Surprisingly, the Dodgers have faced Vargas for 70 at bats and have hit him hard with a BAA over .300 and a OPS over .9. The Dodgers are coming off a shutout and their offense should be chomping at the bit to get back out there. I have LA set at an even -140 so we are getting some nice value at -129 and I expect Dodger money to hit at some point driving the price back up. I am rolling with the Dodgers for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

This year has gone by SO fast it's unreal. In a way it's good, because I can't wait until he gets older and we can spend more time together. I want to be a great dad that spends as much time as possible with his kids. My dad died when I was an infant so I never had that aspect in my life. I want to give my kids everything I didn't have, especially when it comes to spending time with them. That's why I can't post on here forever. Once I start coaching his football and baseball teams and all the other stuff that kids like to do, I just won't have time. Plus, I want to be sure that I take an active role in his schoolwork and try to get him into physical fitness and exercise at an early age. You know how it is....you were a great dad helping your sons out with baseball and everything. Now look what your hard work has achieved. Your kids are very smart and successful and doing well in both sports and school. You da man!

Thanks for the kind words bro. End of the day it is the best investment you can make in life, and has nothing to do with $. Time. Spending time with them makes all the difference in the world....and don't be afraid to show them you are human, with warts and all. Ok, enough of this sappy stuff , lets make some money! Have a wonderful day with the fam.

[guil0000]

That Texas over is the play that jumped out at me first this morning LTA. I would take that Yank under in any other major league BP, Yankee stadium is just unfair for RHP imo. Gee's GB% vs. Hughes FB% almost tempts me to play the Muts.

Sale at -225 , I love the kid but come on. This kid Parker is due for some regression at some point and has the benefit of throwing 6 of his 9 games in Oakland's spacious confines. Kershaw is hovering around an auto-play if he gets under -130 imo. Looking forward to the rest of your thoughts on todays card bro. Keep on grinding.

My only play so far is Arizona so I fully agree... I liked that he pitched a complete game in his last outing with 4 days rest

[Love The Action]

Your boy Moore is getting some early action already

All the way down to +105 now. I think he's starting to really put it all together now and the sharps see it too. He has pitched solid the last two or three outtings and his command has improved. If he can keep that command, he is going to be a top of the rotation stud. Kershaw-esque.

[Love The Action]

My only play so far is Arizona so I fully agree... I liked that he pitched a complete game in his last outing with 4 days rest

I am going to play Arizona on the -1RL. Parker is due for a huge regression. His advanced numbers are mediocre at best.

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the kind words bro. End of the day it is the best investment you can make in life, and has nothing to do with $. Time. Spending time with them makes all the difference in the world....and don't be afraid to show them you are human, with warts and all. Ok, enough of this sappy stuff , lets make some money! Have a wonderful day with the fam.

It's time.....

[guil0000]

I am going to play Arizona on the -1RL. Parker is due for a huge regression. His advanced numbers are mediocre at best.

It never hurts to have GB specialist Cahill on the mount against a young fly ball guy due for some regression in batter friedly Arizona

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/9/2012

Play #1

Cubs/Twins under (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Two of the games best young pitchers square off against two of the more inconsistent offenses. Wind is blowing in and Enmel is the ump who is 9-1 o/u this season but who has a high strike rate over 63% and an under leaning history which tells me this seasons o/u results for him are not the result of a small strike zone. I have this game set at 6.9 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rangers/Giants over (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I'll pay the -110 for this matchup as Vogelsong finally faces an offense that can force his inevitable regression. On the other side is Feldman who even the Giants can hit up for three or more runs. Randazzo is the ump who is fairly neutral but I expect the bats to push this one over. I have this game set at 9 even and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Dodgers ML (-129) 1x (Locked)

I also like the under, but missed the plus money. I will keep my eye on that one and may play it later. For now, I will take a shot with Kershaw. Vargas is having a solid year, but he is no Kershaw. Seattle is bottom 10 against lefties in all significant categories, while the Dodgers remain top 11. Surprisingly, the Dodgers have faced Vargas for 70 at bats and have hit him hard with a BAA over .300 and a OPS over .9. The Dodgers are coming off a shutout and their offense should be chomping at the bit to get back out there. I have LA set at an even -140 so we are getting some nice value at -129 and I expect Dodger money to hit at some point driving the price back up. I am rolling with the Dodgers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Diamondbacks -1RL (+104) 1x (Locked)

Both pitchers have unfamiliarity but Cahill is the better pitcher, especially when it comes to ground balls in a park that kills fly ball pitchers like Parker. Cahill is one of the best ground ball pitchers in the league with a GB/FB over 3 while Parker is barely at 1. Cahill has the better tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA. When you compare BABIP and LOB& you see that Parker has been getting a bit lucky with the a .246 BABIP and 80% LOB% while Cahill is right in the meaty part of the curve at .284 and 71%. When it comes hitting, you have a bottom 5 team against righties in Oakland and a top 14 team in Arizona. I will roll with the better starter and lineup and take Arizona on the -1RL at plus odds for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

It never hurts to have GB specialist Cahill on the mount against a young fly ball guy due for some regression in batter friedly Arizona

Exactly....

[BiffTFinancial]

It never hurts to have GB specialist Cahill on the mount against a young fly ball guy due for some regression in batter friedly Arizona

over ump like McClelland doesn't hurt either.

[pacocn]

Lta, best wishes for the "little man's" 1st b'day, enjoy and good luck on today's card

[TC Woods]

Play #3

Dodgers ML (-129) 1x (Locked)

I also like the under, but missed the plus money. I will keep my eye on that one and may play it later. For now, I will take a shot with Kershaw. Vargas is having a solid year, but he is no Kershaw. Seattle is bottom 10 against lefties in all significant categories, while the Dodgers remain top 11. Surprisingly, the Dodgers have faced Vargas for 70 at bats and have hit him hard with a BAA over .300 and a OPS over .9. The Dodgers are coming off a shutout and their offense should be chomping at the bit to get back out there. I have LA set at an even -140 so we are getting some nice value at -129 and I expect Dodger money to hit at some point driving the price back up. I am rolling with the Dodgers for 1x. Good luck.

Ouch... I'd like to tail but can't go against the local team today. Mariners are a strange bunch, seem to be putting it together but...they say we have a young team. We've had this same "young team" for about 25years

GL today

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/9/2012

Play #1

Cubs/Twins under (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Two of the games best young pitchers square off against two of the more inconsistent offenses. Wind is blowing in and Enmel is the ump who is 9-1 o/u this season but who has a high strike rate over 63% and an under leaning history which tells me this seasons o/u results for him are not the result of a small strike zone. I have this game set at 6.9 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rangers/Giants over (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I'll pay the -110 for this matchup as Vogelsong finally faces an offense that can force his inevitable regression. On the other side is Feldman who even the Giants can hit up for three or more runs. Randazzo is the ump who is fairly neutral but I expect the bats to push this one over. I have this game set at 9 even and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Dodgers ML (-129) 1x (Locked)

I also like the under, but missed the plus money. I will keep my eye on that one and may play it later. For now, I will take a shot with Kershaw. Vargas is having a solid year, but he is no Kershaw. Seattle is bottom 10 against lefties in all significant categories, while the Dodgers remain top 11. Surprisingly, the Dodgers have faced Vargas for 70 at bats and have hit him hard with a BAA over .300 and a OPS over .9. The Dodgers are coming off a shutout and their offense should be chomping at the bit to get back out there. I have LA set at an even -140 so we are getting some nice value at -129 and I expect Dodger money to hit at some point driving the price back up. I am rolling with the Dodgers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Diamondbacks -1RL (+104) 1x (Locked)

Both pitchers have unfamiliarity but Cahill is the better pitcher, especially when it comes to ground balls in a park that kills fly ball pitchers like Parker. Cahill is one of the best ground ball pitchers in the league with a GB/FB over 3 while Parker is barely at 1. Cahill has the better tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA. When you compare BABIP and LOB& you see that Parker has been getting a bit lucky with the a .246 BABIP and 80% LOB% while Cahill is right in the meaty part of the curve at .284 and 71%. When it comes hitting, you have a bottom 5 team against righties in Oakland and a top 14 team in Arizona. I will roll with the better starter and lineup and take Arizona on the -1RL at plus odds for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Tigers -1RL (-107) 1.5x (Locked)

You can't really worry about making "square" plays when you back Kershaw or Verlander because you are always going to see 70%+ of all bets on the same side as you. Consequently, I don't worry about that today. However, I don't think it's necessary to lay the -140 that I am getting now on the ML and I think the better play is to back Verlander on the -1RL and risk the push. Arroyo's comeback season has seen him struggle a bit lately by giving up 4 or more runs in 4 of his last 5 starts against weak offenses like Houston and Pittsburgh. Verlander has lost a few games against the Yanks, Boston and Cleveland in his last three, but has pitched much better than Arroyo. When you consider that Verlander has the unfamiliarity factor going for him but that the big boppers for Detroit in Fielder and Cabrera both know Arroyo from their days in the NL and I just think this could be a long day for Cincy. Detroit is top 10 against right handed pitchers while Cincy is bottom 10. I like backing Cincy against lefties, but today they are facing the most dominate right handed pitcher in baseball. I am rolling with Detroit for 1.5x now and may add down the road. Good luck.